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ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
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Mr.BigBlue Offline
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Post: #1
ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
This analysis sounds about right. Also this analyst tends to agree, like I mentioned before, that we are likely to lose 5 total CUSA games. This would also suggest that we are on the side looking in for the NIT as well because looking at who we have left to play...our final RPI/SOS ranking will be well above 100 because WKU is the only team ranked below 100 and we essentially can't finish as conference regular season runner up.

What do others think ?

Old Dominion Basketball
Predictions Update
Feb 2, 2018

After losing to Middle Tenn 66-59 yesterday, Old Dominion is now projected to finish the regular season 23-7 (14-4 CUSA).

The odds that the Monarchs make the NCAA tournament are down to 23%, a decrease of 9% since yesterday.

We currently rank Old Dominion as the #87 team in the country, and the #3 team in the CUSA.

Next game: Sat, Feb 3 vs. #115 UAB. Our power ratings give the Monarchs a 75% chance to win.
Bracketology Projections
Make NCAA Tournament 23%

Get Automatic NCAA Bid. 20%

Projected Seed 12
(if Selected)



Old Dominion almost certainly won't get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, so they need to earn an automatic bid by winning the CUSA tournament.

As for an automatic bid ... Old Dominion has a 20% chance to win the conference tournament. They're more likely than not to lose, but they do have a reasonable shot at winning.

We project the Monarchs with a 1% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen, but essentially no chance to reach the Final Four.
More Old Dominion Bracketology | Bracketology For All Teams

Regular Season Record Projection
Current Record

Projection For Remaining Games

Projected
Final Record

16-5

(7-2 CUSA)

7-2

(7-2 CUSA)

23-7

(14-4 CUSA)


The more precise final record expectation for Old Dominion is 22.6 wins and 7.4 losses, slightly worse than the rounded projection above.

Based on our projections, the Monarchs will most likely finish the regular season with a record between 24-6 and 22-8.

Old Dominion has a 5% chance to win all 9 of their remaining scheduled games.
More Old Dominion Projections | Projections For All CUSA Teams

CUSA Tournament Projections
Get CUSA #1 Seed

Projected Seed

Win CUSA Tournament

3%

3

20%


The odds for Old Dominion to earn the #1 seed in the CUSA tournament are down 22% since yesterday.

The chance of Old Dominion winning the CUSA tournament has decreased by 3% since yesterday.
Full CUSA Tournament Projections

Remaining Games & Win Odds
Feb 3
UAB Logo
vs. #115 UAB
75.2%
Preview

Feb 8
Southern Miss Logo
@ #253 S Mississippi
78.7%
Preview

Feb 10
Louisiana Tech Logo
@ #124 LA Tech
48.7%
Preview

Feb 15
Texas-San Antonio Logo
vs. #196 TX-San Ant
89.3%
Preview

Feb 17
Texas-El Paso Logo
vs. #236 TX El Paso
93.0%
Preview

Feb 22
Marshall Logo
@ #151 Marshall
56.6%
Preview

Feb 24
Western Kentucky Logo
@ #84 W Kentucky
34.8%
Preview

Mar 1
Florida Atlantic Logo
vs. #247 Fla Atlantic
93.6%
Preview

Mar 3
Florida International Logo
vs. #277 Florida Intl
95.6%
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2018 01:18 PM by Mr.BigBlue.)
02-02-2018 01:15 PM
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cmett003 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
Still have a good shot of winning the conference tourny
02-02-2018 01:16 PM
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Mr.BigBlue Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-02-2018 01:16 PM)cmett003 Wrote:  Still have a good shot of winning the conference tourny

20% is not very good ! If we see WKU or MTSU in the semis or finals they are tough outs.
02-02-2018 01:20 PM
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odu83alumni Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
22-8 or 23-7 sounds about right. I have a feeling it is gonna be 22-8.
02-02-2018 01:34 PM
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Gilesfan Online
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-02-2018 01:34 PM)odu83alumni Wrote:  22-8 or 23-7 sounds about right. I have a feeling it is gonna be 22-8.

We should beat Southern Miss, UTSA, UTEP, FAU, and FIU. That would suggest at least 21 as a floor.

Home: UAB
Away: LT, Marshall, WK

The UAB game is huge and maybe bigger than the MTSU game in the grand scheme of things. Considering we are battle UAB, among others for a 2-4 finish in CUSA. It is also a team we are expected to beat and have 3 tough road games.

It appears to be 22/23 wins as likely. I could see a case for 24...would be hard to imagine 21 (which would be a disappointing finish). If we lose to UAB, we probably need to win 2 out of those 3 road matchups.
02-02-2018 01:39 PM
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blewbyu Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
We have not been successful in any of our big games this year. WK and MTSU were home games where we were favored to win. I don't see this team beating LT,Marshall, and certainly not WK on the road. UAB at home maybe but I think you will see the same scenario with them we saw against WK and MTSU. We compete well the first half and the first half of the second half. Then we get tired because we haven't developed a bench and fade at the end of the game. We win the cupcake games and lose the big games. This is just the way it is.
02-02-2018 02:10 PM
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ODU_NYG Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
I predict that we'll finish with a top-4 and a bye in the CUSA tourney. Then I predict we'll lose either our first or 2nd game. Then we'll play in the CBI or CIT. Even if we get lucky and one of the top seeds gets upset early (like UAB did a couple of years ago) I don't think we have a team that can compete and win 3 games in 3 days regardless of opponents.
02-02-2018 02:47 PM
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Mr.BigBlue Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
Now we have a 30% chance of the NCAA's. 24-6 to 23-7 is our predicted record. Other than WKU there is nobody left on our schedule with a rank below 100. So CUSA Tournament championship is likely our only way to the NCAAs. Tournament championship will have to go through MTSU.
02-11-2018 09:44 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-11-2018 09:44 PM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  Now we have a 30% chance of the NCAA's. 24-6 to 23-7 is our predicted record. Other than WKU there is nobody left on our schedule with a rank below 100. So CUSA Tournament championship is likely our only way to the NCAAs. Tournament championship will have to go through MTSU.

I thought that was a given for some time now.

If ODU wins out the regular season, beats Louisiana Tech and WKU in the CUSA tournament then loses to Middle Tennessee in the final, RPIForecast has them with an RPI of 53. That's a best-case scenario. If enough bubble teams go kablooie and there's no bid-stealers, I guess it's possible, but a presumed two wins against WKU isn't enough.
02-11-2018 09:56 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-02-2018 02:47 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  I predict that we'll finish with a top-4 and a bye in the CUSA tourney. Then I predict we'll lose either our first or 2nd game. Then we'll play in the CBI or CIT. Even if we get lucky and one of the top seeds gets upset early (like UAB did a couple of years ago) I don't think we have a team that can compete and win 3 games in 3 days regardless of opponents.

The NIT is still a definite possibility so long as ODU doesn't lose any bad games. Last season only three postseason-eligible teams with double-digit RPIs didn't make at least the NIT — UNC Asheville (73, CIT), San Francisco (94, CBI) and Furman (96, CIT). Winning all but the WKU game in the regular season and a semifinal exit in the CUSA tournament puts ODU at a 64 RPI, which should be pretty solid for an NIT bid, presuming a bunch of low-major regular-season champs don't lose in their conference tournaments and take NIT spots.
02-11-2018 10:09 PM
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EverRespect Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-11-2018 10:09 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(02-02-2018 02:47 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  I predict that we'll finish with a top-4 and a bye in the CUSA tourney. Then I predict we'll lose either our first or 2nd game. Then we'll play in the CBI or CIT. Even if we get lucky and one of the top seeds gets upset early (like UAB did a couple of years ago) I don't think we have a team that can compete and win 3 games in 3 days regardless of opponents.

The NIT is still a definite possibility so long as ODU doesn't lose any bad games. Last season only three postseason-eligible teams with double-digit RPIs didn't make at least the NIT — UNC Asheville (73, CIT), San Francisco (94, CBI) and Furman (96, CIT). Winning all but the WKU game in the regular season and a semifinal exit in the CUSA tournament puts ODU at a 64 RPI, which should be pretty solid for an NIT bid, presuming a bunch of low-major regular-season champs don't lose in their conference tournaments and take NIT spots.
NIT is the consolation prize

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02-11-2018 10:48 PM
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monarx Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
I think if we win the rest of the reg season except for WKU, we should be in the NIT. Otherwise, I’d just as soon stay home than a C tournament
02-11-2018 10:53 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-11-2018 10:48 PM)EverRespect Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 10:09 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(02-02-2018 02:47 PM)ODU_NYG Wrote:  I predict that we'll finish with a top-4 and a bye in the CUSA tourney. Then I predict we'll lose either our first or 2nd game. Then we'll play in the CBI or CIT. Even if we get lucky and one of the top seeds gets upset early (like UAB did a couple of years ago) I don't think we have a team that can compete and win 3 games in 3 days regardless of opponents.

The NIT is still a definite possibility so long as ODU doesn't lose any bad games. Last season only three postseason-eligible teams with double-digit RPIs didn't make at least the NIT — UNC Asheville (73, CIT), San Francisco (94, CBI) and Furman (96, CIT). Winning all but the WKU game in the regular season and a semifinal exit in the CUSA tournament puts ODU at a 64 RPI, which should be pretty solid for an NIT bid, presuming a bunch of low-major regular-season champs don't lose in their conference tournaments and take NIT spots.
NIT is the consolation prize

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It's not the dream destination, but it certainly beats the Vegas 16 and Norfolk 0 of the previous two seasons.
02-11-2018 10:56 PM
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odu09 Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
NIT is still a failure to me. I don't care that it's the 2nd best. We have been out of the NCAAs for too long to be okay with an NIT bid.
02-12-2018 06:55 AM
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Mr.BigBlue Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
Unless we finish #2 in regular season and finish #2 in the CUSA tournament we will not get an NIT Bid. That is CUSA's history with NIT. very rarely does the NIT award CUSA with 2 or more bids. Plus our SOS will be woefully lacking following this string of +150 RPI games. Last year everyone was saying the same thing and my analysis showed differently. Our issue is the NIT is bound to take #2 conference regular season finishers and #1 if they don't go to the NCAA's. So for us a #2 finish in mandatory which will be hard with a loss to WKU already and we have to play them at home. Right now we have a 34% chance of winning that game.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 07:15 AM by Mr.BigBlue.)
02-12-2018 07:10 AM
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FearTheLion Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
We can win it. Just gotta close better than the first time and we're on track to do just that.
02-12-2018 09:18 AM
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Chillie Willie Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 07:10 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  Unless we finish #2 in regular season and finish #2 in the CUSA tournament we will not get an NIT Bid. That is CUSA's history with NIT. very rarely does the NIT award CUSA with 2 or more bids. Plus our SOS will be woefully lacking following this string of +150 RPI games. Last year everyone was saying the same thing and my analysis showed differently. Our issue is the NIT is bound to take #2 conference regular season finishers and #1 if they don't go to the NCAA's. So for us a #2 finish in mandatory which will be hard with a loss to WKU already and we have to play them at home. Right now we have a 34% chance of winning that game.
So your saying we got a chance!

I don't have any data to back it up, but from my memory I fear what you are saying about NIT bids is true. But we all still have to play the games and WKU could still falter. Hopefully against us.
02-12-2018 09:23 AM
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Gilesfan Online
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 07:10 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  Unless we finish #2 in regular season and finish #2 in the CUSA tournament we will not get an NIT Bid. That is CUSA's history with NIT. very rarely does the NIT award CUSA with 2 or more bids. Plus our SOS will be woefully lacking following this string of +150 RPI games. Last year everyone was saying the same thing and my analysis showed differently. Our issue is the NIT is bound to take #2 conference regular season finishers and #1 if they don't go to the NCAA's. So for us a #2 finish in mandatory which will be hard with a loss to WKU already and we have to play them at home. Right now we have a 34% chance of winning that game.

You keep saying this....who said last year we would be in the NIT? We had an RPI that was barely 150.

Is your reasoning based on CUSA not having a history of teams below second place getting NIT bids? If so, how often has the NIT had 3 top 75 teams? (I haven't looked, but don't expect that it would have happened much)

The NIT has the following automatic bids:
Regular Season Champs that lose in Tourney
First 4 teams out of NCAA Tourney

There are several teams that got into the NIT last year with lesser resumes than we have. 4 of them got at large bids from leser conferences.

In terms of our RPI this year, we still have Marshall (107) and Western Kentucky (58) out of the 6 remaining regular season games and are likley to have another game against a high RPI team in the tourney. Barring a collapse, I'm not sure how the RPI will drop dramatically.

Its too early to make an NIT prediction, we are clearly a bubble type team, but we would solidly be in at the moment assuming several lesser conferences don't have regular season winners that lose in tourney.
02-12-2018 09:28 AM
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Gilesfan Online
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-11-2018 10:53 PM)monarx Wrote:  I think if we win the rest of the reg season except for WKU, we should be in the NIT. Otherwise, I’d just as soon stay home than a C tournament

If we win all games except WKY and then win 1 or 2 games in the tourney, we are probably in the NIT.
02-12-2018 09:29 AM
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monarx Offline
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RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 09:29 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 10:53 PM)monarx Wrote:  I think if we win the rest of the reg season except for WKU, we should be in the NIT. Otherwise, I’d just as soon stay home than a C tournament

If we win all games except WKY and then win 1 or 2 games in the tourney, we are probably in the NIT.

I agree. in 2017 the last non-P5 team to get an at-large bid to the NIT was Richmond with an RPI of 80. I think if we finish third in CUSA, but end with 7 losses (one more reg season, and one more in the tournament) and manage to have an RPI over 85 we have a decent chance. Our best bet for the NIT might be to have WKU win CUSA, MT gets an at-large to the NCAAs and ODU gets in the NIT. Of course, none of this will matter if we win the CUSA tournament.
02-12-2018 09:51 AM
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