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Mr.BigBlue Offline
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Post: #21
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 09:28 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 07:10 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  Unless we finish #2 in regular season and finish #2 in the CUSA tournament we will not get an NIT Bid. That is CUSA's history with NIT. very rarely does the NIT award CUSA with 2 or more bids. Plus our SOS will be woefully lacking following this string of +150 RPI games. Last year everyone was saying the same thing and my analysis showed differently. Our issue is the NIT is bound to take #2 conference regular season finishers and #1 if they don't go to the NCAA's. So for us a #2 finish in mandatory which will be hard with a loss to WKU already and we have to play them at home. Right now we have a 34% chance of winning that game.

You keep saying this....who said last year we would be in the NIT? We had an RPI that was barely 150.

Is your reasoning based on CUSA not having a history of teams below second place getting NIT bids? If so, how often has the NIT had 3 top 75 teams? (I haven't looked, but don't expect that it would have happened much)

The NIT has the following automatic bids:
Regular Season Champs that lose in Tourney
First 4 teams out of NCAA Tourney

There are several teams that got into the NIT last year with lesser resumes than we have. 4 of them got at large bids from leser conferences.

In terms of our RPI this year, we still have Marshall (107) and Western Kentucky (58) out of the 6 remaining regular season games and are likley to have another game against a high RPI team in the tourney. Barring a collapse, I'm not sure how the RPI will drop dramatically.

Its too early to make an NIT prediction, we are clearly a bubble type team, but we would solidly be in at the moment assuming several lesser conferences don't have regular season winners that lose in tourney.
Many on this board last year said that. I like our chances if we can beat WKU on their home floor. A loss to WKU and a loss to Marshall and wins against the rest will seal our fate. We have to win out to secure a #2 seed and a #2 CUSA finish. That will be a tough to do. More and more it is looking like .... Win the CUSA tournament or bust!
02-12-2018 10:32 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #22
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
I must be missing it. I just searched the phrase NIT and searched through all of your posts from last basketball season and didn't see anything about it. Oh well.

FWIW, why do you believe the team has to finish second in the NIT? I looked through conferences with teams in the range we are talking about (50-100ish)

Just from last year:

BYU- 73 RPI (3rd place team)

Mountain West:
Colorado State 69 (2)
Boise State 70 (3)
Fresno State 77 (4)

CAA did not get the 3rd place team in (Towson-94 who declined all postseson tournaments)

At the very least a 3rd place CUSA team with an RPI under 100 is a bubble team. Move them up to around 75-80 and they have a good shot.
02-12-2018 10:43 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #23
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
We don't have a great chance at finishing second if we lose to WKY (and win remaining games), but it is possible....WKY has tough road games at North Texas, MTSU, and UAB. They could easily lose 2 of those, but will be favorites in 2 out of 3.
02-12-2018 10:46 AM
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Mr.BigBlue Offline
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Post: #24
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
Because of geographics, generally 1 bid leagues will steal a few spots in the NIT field, and the fact that CUSA is usually the #13 or below rated conference. CUSA will get 1 team in the NIT more than that is very questionable. Also...this is all predicated on us winning all our remaining games with exception of either WKU or MU, plus making it to the finals of the CUSA tournament. That is a tall order. As of right now.....the NCAA is a stronger likelihood than the NIT because of all the other factors and uncertainties that have to be consider to get into the NIT. You are entitled to your own opinion. I just would not bet on the NIT as a backup option.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 10:54 AM by Mr.BigBlue.)
02-12-2018 10:53 AM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #25
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 07:10 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  Unless we finish #2 in regular season and finish #2 in the CUSA tournament we will not get an NIT Bid. That is CUSA's history with NIT. very rarely does the NIT award CUSA with 2 or more bids. Plus our SOS will be woefully lacking following this string of +150 RPI games. Last year everyone was saying the same thing and my analysis showed differently. Our issue is the NIT is bound to take #2 conference regular season finishers and #1 if they don't go to the NCAA's. So for us a #2 finish in mandatory which will be hard with a loss to WKU already and we have to play them at home. Right now we have a 34% chance of winning that game.

That's only for the women's NIT, which has the room to do that because they have a 64-team field. The NIT only has 32 slots, so they couldn't take all the No. 1/2 finishers even if they wanted to because there's more than 32 conferences.

The only teams that can steal an NIT bid are regular-season conference champions that do not make the NCAAs. If, say, the Atlantic Sun or MEAC sends their champion to the NCAAs, they don't get an NIT team as well. If their champ loses in the conference tournament, they go to the NIT.

So while the goal is obviously winning the CUSA tournament and the resultant NCAA bid, there's a reasonable path to an NIT berth even if ODU loses the WKU rematch and loses in the semifinals. Not a guaranteed spot, but they'll be in the discussion all the same. And if they win out the regular season and/or advance to the CUSA final, it strengthens their case.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 11:02 AM by Cyniclone.)
02-12-2018 11:01 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #26
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 10:53 AM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  Because of geographics, generally 1 bid leagues will steal a few spots in the NIT field, and the fact that CUSA is usually the #13 or below rated conference. CUSA will get 1 team in the NIT more than that is very questionable. Also...this is all predicated on us winning all our remaining games with exception of either WKU or MU, plus making it to the finals of the CUSA tournament. That is a tall order. As of right now.....the NCAA is a stronger likelihood than the NIT because of all the other factors and uncertainties that have to be consider to get into the NIT. You are entitled to your own opinion. I just would not bet on the NIT as a backup option.

Yes, that is why I mentioned 4 teams did that last year. I'm not stating any opinion at all, I'm stating what happened in the NIT last year and trying to figure out why a 3rd place team is not making in to the NIT if they have a good RPI.
02-12-2018 11:01 AM
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ODU2011 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
Unlike the rest of you, I’m not counting out a tourney appearance.
02-12-2018 11:28 AM
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757ODU Offline
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Post: #28
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
If we win out and lose in the conference championship, a half court shot will be the only thing keeping us from a NCAA Tournament appearance.
02-12-2018 11:30 AM
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monarx Offline
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Post: #29
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 11:30 AM)757ODU Wrote:  If we win out and lose in the conference championship, a half court shot will be the only thing keeping us from a NCAA Tournament appearance.

That, and a ton of missed free throws.
02-12-2018 12:45 PM
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EverRespect Offline
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Post: #30
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 11:30 AM)757ODU Wrote:  If we win out and lose in the conference championship, a half court shot will be the only thing keeping us from a NCAA Tournament appearance.

If we win out and lose in the championship, our RPI will be roughly 53 (according to RPI Forecast) and our only top 100 win would be @WKU (W&M is projected to fall out of the top 100). I don't think the halfcourt shot will be a factor. We are 0-3 against the top 100 either way without any signature wins. We are a good team that could potentially do some damage, but we don't have an at-large resume.

What we want is to win out and hope to get some help to get a #1 seed so we only have to play WKU/MTSU once in the tournament. Would much rather play Marshall in the semis as they aren't physical. I think we can beat WKU and/or MTSU, but not both on back to back days. The physicality and the grind is where the lack of depth would crush us.
02-12-2018 12:48 PM
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ODU AGGIE Offline
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Post: #31
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 11:28 AM)ODU2011 Wrote:  Unlike the rest of you, I’m not counting out a tourney appearance.

Count me in!
02-12-2018 12:49 PM
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cmett003 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 12:45 PM)monarx Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 11:30 AM)757ODU Wrote:  If we win out and lose in the conference championship, a half court shot will be the only thing keeping us from a NCAA Tournament appearance.

That, and a ton of missed free throws.

We were 4-14 from the line in that game. FT shooting has gotten better since
02-12-2018 12:57 PM
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ODU True Blue Online
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Post: #33
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
I thought our record was going to be 25-5 regular season before we played a game. Still within reach as is 26-4.

Just rechecked that thread. I said 22-8 going into the CUSA tourney. I think we should definitely break that.
(This post was last modified: 02-12-2018 01:11 PM by ODU True Blue.)
02-12-2018 12:59 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #34
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 12:59 PM)ODU True Blue Wrote:  I thought our record was going to be 25-5 regular season before we played a game. Still within reach as is 26-4.

Just rechecked that thread. I said 22-8 going into the CUSA tourney. I think we should definitely break that.

ODU is 19-5 now so 26-4 is definitely out of reach. Thinking one more loss (either WKU or Marshall) so 24-6 is my guess.
02-12-2018 01:47 PM
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FearTheLion Offline
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Post: #35
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 11:28 AM)ODU2011 Wrote:  Unlike the rest of you, I’m not counting out a tourney appearance.
02-12-2018 01:51 PM
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FearTheLion Offline
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Post: #36
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?
02-12-2018 01:53 PM
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Punk Offline
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Post: #37
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 01:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?

Not even close to their resume that year. We have 0 wins in the top 100, let alone top 50.

Here is something I found before the CAA tourney that year..

Resume
RPI Rank: 51

Record: 23-11

Conference Record: 12-6

Strength Of Schedule: 86

Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5

Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason

Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern

In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).

They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.
02-12-2018 01:57 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #38
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 01:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?

Not great. VCU's Selection Sunday RPI was 49, and they owned top-40 RPI wins against ODU, George Mason, Wichita State and UCLA. Plus top-40 losses to ODU (2), Mason, UAB and Richmond, with Tennessee at 41. They had nine top-100 wins, whereas ODU has zero right now.

So not well at all.
02-12-2018 02:10 PM
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monarx Offline
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Post: #39
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 01:57 PM)Punk Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?

Not even close to their resume that year. We have 0 wins in the top 100, let alone top 50.

Here is something I found before the CAA tourney that year..

Resume
RPI Rank: 51

Record: 23-11

Conference Record: 12-6

Strength Of Schedule: 86

Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5

Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason

Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern

In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).

They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.

And its an easy argument that because they got it, we are in CUSA now. If VCU doesn't go that year, they don't get their miracle run. W/O that they don't get the A10 invite. If they don't leave the CAA, GMU and ODU don't leave either.
02-12-2018 02:12 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #40
RE: ODU MBB Remaining Predictions
(02-12-2018 02:12 PM)monarx Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:57 PM)Punk Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 01:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  How does our current resume statistically compare to VCU when they received that surprise invitation after being handled by us 2 out of 3 matchups?

Not even close to their resume that year. We have 0 wins in the top 100, let alone top 50.

Here is something I found before the CAA tourney that year..

Resume
RPI Rank: 51

Record: 23-11

Conference Record: 12-6

Strength Of Schedule: 86

Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5

Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason

Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern

In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).

They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.

And its an easy argument that because they got it, we are in CUSA now. If VCU doesn't go that year, they don't get their miracle run. W/O that they don't get the A10 invite. If they don't leave the CAA, GMU and ODU don't leave either.

I'm not sure it's that cut and dried. The A-10 needed schools once Temple and Charlotte announced their departures, and again after the Big East poached Butler and Xavier. There weren't that many—if any—sexy programs out there that got passed over for VCU/GMU/Davidson.

It's hard to know what would have happened to VCU basketball if you butterfly their NCAA run into an NIT invitation, but they still had Shaka as coach and recruiter, and they were one choke-job away against Indiana from a return trip to the Sweet 16 the next season, so I think they would have still been fine. Probably not a seven-year NCAA streak, but they don't turn into Hofstra or Drexel either.

Put another way: George Mason did very little after breaking into the Top 25 and winning an NCAA game in 2011, and they did it in an older arena with less fan support than VCU, but they still got an A-10 invite.

The CAA that we knew and loved in the early 2010s was destined to be disrupted. Eventually ODU would have gotten the FBS bug, and if they didn't, perhaps JMU takes their CUSA invite. Short of replacing a departing Shaka with Mack McCarthy again, I don't think anything you do to change VCU's 2011 makes a difference.
02-12-2018 02:21 PM
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