A Larger and More Organized P4
Now that John Skipper is out, I'm going to audition to be the new head of ESPN. I'm going to do that by showing off my machiavellian skills.
I'm going to put myself in the captain's seat of Disney/ESPN and try to come up with a way to take over as much college content as I can. Once I've taken it over then I will ensure that the order of things is conducive to my distribution plans.
Since we've recently purchased a good chunk of 21st Century Fox, I've found that I now own the T3 rights to almost every member of the Big 12. That makes things a lot easier for me. While Fox still owns half the T1 and T2 rights of the league, Fox also owns a good chunk of my stock which means they are far more apt to work with me on accomplishing a long term goal. That goal is essentially the reorganization of major college sports into something much more marketable and symmetrical.
Fox also owns half of the PAC 12 and this is where the next move needs to take place. For some reason, the PAC 12 owns their conference network and hasn't bothered to partner with a media company. They're suffering for it and I know that as well as anyone. The PAC 12 is vulnerable and so I'm going to make them an offer they can't refuse...
See, what I've got going for me is this new array of RSNs. I've got a lot of pro sports rights in key markets that will guarantee a decent return, but I want to make sure these new channels perform to their potential. That means I'll be using them to broadcast tons of college content in local markets where they are more likely to be appreciated. The PAC 12 is going to love this because they thought they could create their own system of regional networks and show Olympic sports that few people actually care about. I will succeed where they failed because I understand what viewers want. So I'll offer to purchase the PAC 12's fledgling network at a bargain basement price. They'll go for it because they'll get survival in exchange.
I'm going to integrate their network into my national platforms and I'm going to run it like I have half a brain. The regional networks will be thrown in the trash because it's nonsensical to dedicate resources to content so few people want to watch. I'll streamline this entity into one national channel that will look a lot more like my SEC and ACC Networks than anything else. Second, I'm going to use my vast system of RSNs to show the other PAC 12 sports in reasonable time slots that won't take away from the events people really want to watch. I need filler content on the West Coast and the PAC is obsessed with showing every conceivable sport. Everybody wins. Most importantly though, I'm going to give the PAC the properties they need to ensure success for at least another generation...
That's right, I'm going to cut a new deal with Fox to re-do the T1 and T2 rights for what I'm going to suggest they call the Pacific Western Conference...an amalgamation of PAC 12 and Big 12 schools. The current PAC 12 will be allowed to absorb 6 schools:
Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Kansas State
The new 18 team league will have a nationally distributed conference network under my roof and I'll split the T1 and T2 rights with Fox. A lot of excess content will fall to my RSNs and the whole deal should work pretty well.
Now that that's out of the way, I've acquired the leverage to really alter the landscape.
My faithful friends, the SEC and ACC will also move to 18 because I SAY SO! While neither of them will get particularly superb brands in their expansion, they will get bribed quite well.
I'll get the SEC to move on TCU and Baylor first. I want to make sure UT gets appeased in all this and since there's no chance I'm renewing the LHN, I need to give them something more than money. UT will get plenty of money in the new PAC and a renewal of the A&M rivalry will help their home crowds as well, but saving TCU and Baylor will curry some favor with those meddling politicians. The politicos stay off the backs of the Longhorns and my plans get furthered. Now, the SEC probably isn't thrilled by these additions...at least not both of them. But, the SEC wants more exposure in TX and most certainly DFW. This move will guarantee they get an equal slice with the new PAC. The new streaming and 'out of market' package for college sports will give the SEC a new revenue stream and so they bite on this deal with one caveat...they get someone from the ACC that they really want.
In order to pull this off, the ACC needs to give up a school they don't really need. Who though? The ACC isn't really in a position of strength when it comes to economic prowess. They surely don't want to give anyone up as their league was raided just a few short years ago and losing quality is not something they can afford right now. But the ACC no longer has to worry too much about security. ESPN owns the strong majority of Power college sports rights at this point. No one is coming in to raid the ACC again without the blessing of ESPN. The B1G is the only one who won't be interested in doing ESPN's bidding, but they're not going to get a fat new contract from Fox either. Fox will not play along and now becomes more of a partner with ESPN than a true competitor. Unless someone else steps up, the B1G is going to have to curry favor once again with ESPN to get any new properties out of the ACC.
The likelihood of that is low, however, as ESPN has invested a great deal in the ACC by this point. No more raiding, it's time for stability. The B1G is stuck in no man's land as far as acquiring key properties out of the ACC.
So if there's greater stability at the ACC's back then who can the league afford to lose? Answer: Miami
Miami gives the SEC another presence in a major media market, a fertile recruiting ground, and a decent brand name program. The ACC doesn't lose anything really because they can backfill with schools in the same market.
The ACC begins their expansion process anew by adding South Florida and Central Florida. The two up and coming programs will give the ACC something they desperately need for the future...state schools that are pumping out alumni in major markets. As far as their slice of FL, it will be about the same. Adding these 2 schools will give the league another rivalry in the Sunshine state and ensure that few prospects from the state of FL will play in any league other than the SEC or ACC.
The SEC finishes out with West Virginia. WVU fits in nicely geographically and can immediately ignite some rivalries with nearby schools. They tap Pittsburgh and DC for the SEC. They can reignite an old rivalry with Miami in conference and can play non-conference match-ups against Pitt and Virginia Tech. The SEC is done at 18.
Now remember that the ACC had to backfill to replace Miami. They've already added USF and UCF to get to 15 full members. Notre Dame comes on board in full because the new paradigm likely rewards the 4 Power conference champions with a playoff berth. Cincinnati and UConn round it out so that the region is locked down.
There are now 3 leagues of 18 under almost total control by my ESPN. That gives me an awful lot of content to utilize the new RSNs and create an 'out of market' package. The Big Ten mostly plays along albeit biding their time and looking for an opportunity to grow. Maybe we can work something out in the future if the BTN comes up for sale.
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