XLance
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RE: Is All Well in PAC Land? Just How Disgruntled Are the Trojans? Stay Tuned......
(02-05-2018 08:28 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote: (02-04-2018 08:45 PM)JRsec Wrote: (02-04-2018 08:09 PM)ken d Wrote: (12-12-2017 08:44 PM)JRsec Wrote: (12-12-2017 08:26 PM)megadrone Wrote: Is this just speculation or has USC expressed any interest in leaving?
The tweet posted in the article is from someone who is apparently a large backer. It's probably a talking point to try to force change with the PACN. Nothing like a threat to leave to force an issue like deciding to get FOX or ESPN backing for the PACN. Then the PAC might pursue Texa-homa or something similar again. But if not, I don't think the thought is necessarily a hollow threat.
I think it could get really interesting. Consider that if the current FOX / Disney deals go through that ESPN will wind up holding the T3 of the Big 12 and would be in a perfect position to handle the changing of the LHN into a viable Big 12N. That would create an even bigger gap in revenue between the PAC and the Big 12 making movement conceivable. Let's say Arizona and Arizona State were interested as well and U.C.L.A. decided to throw in with U.S.C.. That would put California and Stanford on the clock so to speak. The present PAC has 12 schools. If they dropped to 7 they would have a year to get back up to 8 or lose conference status. Remember their contracts are up in 2024-5 as well.
While not likely, it has, if the Disney/FOX deal goes through, moved into the realm of possibility. Besides when a conference, or one of its schools, doesn't want to accept the responsibility for making a potential threat they usually have one of their boosters do the talking, or a local beat writer. It's an effective way to send a message. So we'll see.
This suggestion is slightly different from one I made earlier.
What if, when the Big 12 media contracts and GoR expire, the 8 western Big 12 schools (all but Iowa State and West Virginia) decide to dissolve the Big 12? Eight votes is what are required, IIRC.
Now those 8 are in position to invite both the Cali 4 plus the Four Corners 4 to join them in a new conference with perfectly logical balanced divisions. No scheduling dilemmas to deal with. The entire southwest within their market, and two of the four best recruiting grounds in the country. Surely you could make a network profitable in that scenario.
Now, for all practical purposes, you are down to a P4 with only 59 mouths to feed. There are now two tweener conferences (a rebuilt PAC and the AAC) and four more or less equal bottom feeders.
If that new P4 wants to stage 4 team conference tournaments, who's to stop them?
So you are saying Kansas, Kansas, State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and the 4 Big 12 Texas schools join with the 4 California Schools, and Washington, Oregon, and the two Arizona's to form a new PAC? If I read that right then I could see Colorado heading to the Big 10.
My question is why hang onto T.C.U.?
Why not include Iowa State and Colorado and cut T.C.U. & Baylor loose?
So the PAC/B12 becomes:
Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, U.C.L.A., Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas St., Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Texas, Texas Tech
Why leave anyone for the Big 10 or SEC of value? After all part of the move would be made to close the gap.
Then in 2033 or thereabouts the Big 10 and SEC get to 16 by each taking two from the ACC. The ACC then back-fills with West Virginia, Baylor, T.C.U. and Connecticut/Cincinnati.
So Notre Dame and Virginia head to the Big 10 and North Carolina and Duke to the SEC.
The football kings remain in their own conference now.
So the Big 10 becomes:
Indiana, Maryland, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, Virginia
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan St., Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
The SEC becomes:
Alabama, Arkansas, L.S.U., Mississippi, Miss St., Missouri, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Auburn, Duke, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee
The rebuilt ACC becomes:
B.C., Cincinnati, Connecticut, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, W.V.U.
Baylor, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, T.C.U., Wake Forest
Now what you have is a more football emphasized ACC without losing all of its basketball cachet. The Big 10 and SEC get into valuable markets with brands. U.N.C. gets to move with Duke. You've only whittled the P5 down to 64, but you have much stronger eastern market draws with Connecticut and Cincinnati than you would have with Washington State, Oregon State, or Utah. And both divisions of the ACC have a tie to Florida and Texas opens up for them.
If N.D. is recalcitrant substitute Syracuse or Pitt and plug the Irish into the ACC.
But truly Ken D. for the sake of efficiency in eliminating duplicated overhead a Big 10 of 24 and a SEC of 24 to form as you pointed out elsewhere a Mega 2 is still much more efficient. Then two tweener conferences one in the East and one in the West make sense as well.
If you look at the Gross Total Revenue from 2016 with the exceptions of Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and Rutgers everyone in the top 48 essentially had 82 million in total gross revenue. Vanderbilt was at 79 and Northwestern at 77, and Rutgers lagged a tad below that. Only UConn was in their range at 79 million as well. Baylor & TCU were both in the 90 million range.
I always look at revenue when considering a dividing line. So with the Mega 2 approach you have a little gray area in revenues, but a fairly clear separation overall. That separation also includes with those same few exceptions, attendance.
I think as long as there is an ACC then Lina, Dook and Virginny would be part of it. Perhaps by then they would stop the pretense of being a football power and go back to their niche of being basketball-focused. In that case, FSU and Clemson move over to the SEC, VA Tech goes to the B10 along with Pitt. Then Temple, USF, UCONN and West Virginia take their places in the ACC.
Baylor, TCU, USF, Louisville, West Virginia, Miami, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
Syracuse, Connecticut, Boston College, Temple, Virginia, UNC, Duke, NC State
Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan State
Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, Penn State, Pitt, Maryland, Rutgers, Virginia Tech
Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Ole Miss, Alabama, Mississippi State
Auburn, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee
Well we might be interested in some horse trading:
How about 2 trades with the B1G, Pitt for Maryland, and Virginia Tech for Northwestern
One Trade with the SEC, Louisville for Vanderbilt.
Then bring in Texas and Notre Dame as a full time member.
Northwestern, Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Boston College, Maryland, Miami
Texas, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Carolina, State, Duke, Wake Forest
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