bcp_jmu
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 05:34 AM)Wear Purple Wrote: (10-30-2017 10:55 PM)DukeDogNation Wrote: I think we only stay a #2 seed if we lose a close game to Richmond.
Lauletta has lots of national cred and their offense has been putting up huge numbers. I still think JMU's D can handle them, though.
Yep. Briscoe had about as much national cred as you can get, but look what we did to him/them. Oh wait. Silly me. He was injured and it had nothing to do with our smothering defense.
it was only cold for one team too
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10-31-2017 10:45 AM |
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94computerguy
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-30-2017 03:48 PM)UofRfan Wrote: I would think 1 loss would make Top 2 possible still and pretty certain top 4, but not sure how the committee is going to treat the 1 loss teams to differentiate. FBS win and defending champs you would think not hurt cause even if probably isn't in the "criteria'.
Would be very unlikely JMU loses a regular season game, hope it doesn't happen for home field to frisco purposes.
No way. JMU's undefeated and is still #2 thanks to MVFC hype. If we lose 1 game, we'll fall to #5 behind NDSU, USD, SDSU, and SHSU. "See, we told you that 10-1 JMU is a paper tiger."
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10-31-2017 12:00 PM |
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94computerguy
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RE: Hypothetical
Seriously, look at these rankings:
https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm
7-1 Elon is #11. If we lost to them we'd be #12 at best. Meanwhile, "look at that tough schedule NDSU has" means they could lose to anyone in their schedule and they'd just say "goes to show how awesome the MVFC is" and still get a top seed. The pollsters just all think the MVFC is just the SEC-but-with-books and even beating them doesn't seem to mean much.
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10-31-2017 12:06 PM |
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BDKJMU
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 12:00 PM)94computerguy Wrote: (10-30-2017 03:48 PM)UofRfan Wrote: I would think 1 loss would make Top 2 possible still and pretty certain top 4, but not sure how the committee is going to treat the 1 loss teams to differentiate. FBS win and defending champs you would think not hurt cause even if probably isn't in the "criteria'.
Would be very unlikely JMU loses a regular season game, hope it doesn't happen for home field to frisco purposes.
No way. JMU's undefeated and is still #2 thanks to MVFC hype. If we lose 1 game, we'll fall to #5 behind NDSU, USD, SDSU, and SHSU. "See, we told you that 10-1 JMU is a paper tiger."
No chance in hell the MVFC would have the 3 top seeds with a JMU loss. The past 5 seasons or so that the MVFC has been seen as the best conference they've never had more than 2 seeded teams. USD already has a loss and still has @ NDSU. SDSU has 2 losses and hosts NDSU this weekend. In the slim chance there's a 3rd seeded MVFC team it would be the #7 or #8 seed..
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10-31-2017 12:12 PM |
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Potomac
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 12:12 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: No chance in hell the MVFC would have the 3 top seeds with a JMU loss. The past 5 seasons or so that the MVFC has been seen as the best conference they've never had more than 2 seeded teams. USD already has a loss and still has @ NDSU. SDSU has 2 losses and hosts NDSU this weekend. In the slim chance there's a 3rd seeded MVFC team it would be the #7 or #8 seed..
Yeah if NDSU is #2, it means they went through USD and SDSU, who are no longer anywhere near the top 5 seeds. No chance of it happening. One of those three will end up not seeded, unless at least one of them beats NDSU. Then all three will be in the 2-5 range at the highest against an undefeated JMU.
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10-31-2017 12:35 PM |
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BDKJMU
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 12:35 PM)Potomac Wrote: (10-31-2017 12:12 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: No chance in hell the MVFC would have the 3 top seeds with a JMU loss. The past 5 seasons or so that the MVFC has been seen as the best conference they've never had more than 2 seeded teams. USD already has a loss and still has @ NDSU. SDSU has 2 losses and hosts NDSU this weekend. In the slim chance there's a 3rd seeded MVFC team it would be the #7 or #8 seed..
Yeah if NDSU is #2, it means they went through USD and SDSU, who are no longer anywhere near the top 5 seeds. No chance of it happening. One of those three will end up not seeded, unless at least one of them beats NDSU. Then all three will be in the 2-5 range at the highest against an undefeated JMU.
Since went to 8 seeds in 2013, MVFC:
2013: #1 NDSU
2014: #2 NDSU, #5 ILSU
2015: #2 ILSU, #3 NDSU
2016: #1 NDSU, #8 SDSU
REMOTE chance 3 seeded MVFC. ZERO chance they'll put 3 MVFC top 5.
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10-31-2017 01:37 PM |
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JMU_Degenerate
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RE: Hypothetical
after looking at Sag ELOs (my post here: http://csnbbs.com/thread-831889-post-147...id14731948) I have changed my mind.
Win out - 1/2 seed
Any one loss - Top 4 seed (but probably still 1/2 seed). Lose to Elon and Elon wins out and wins CAA they may jump onto 1/2 seed line.
Any two losses - Top 8 seed
Lose out - host a game Thanksgiving Weekend
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10-31-2017 03:36 PM |
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Flyrod
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 03:36 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote: after looking at Sag ELOs (my post here: http://csnbbs.com/thread-831889-post-147...id14731948) I have changed my mind.
Win out - 1/2 seed
Any one loss - Top 4 seed (but probably still 1/2 seed). Lose to Elon and Elon wins out and wins CAA they may jump onto 1/2 seed line.
Any two losses - Top 8 seed
Lose out - host a game Thanksgiving Weekend
Agree with this assessment however ELON will not jump to a 1 or 2 seed...best I figure they will do is a 3 or 4 based on SOS, dont think beating US(JMU) would be enough of a bump to get put at 1 or 2 ( if we lose to Elon and they win out i can easily see JMU and ELON being # 3&4 in whatever order.
but thats just my take
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10-31-2017 03:40 PM |
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JMU_Degenerate
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 03:40 PM)Flyrod Wrote: (10-31-2017 03:36 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote: after looking at Sag ELOs (my post here: http://csnbbs.com/thread-831889-post-147...id14731948) I have changed my mind.
Win out - 1/2 seed
Any one loss - Top 4 seed (but probably still 1/2 seed). Lose to Elon and Elon wins out and wins CAA they may jump onto 1/2 seed line.
Any two losses - Top 8 seed
Lose out - host a game Thanksgiving Weekend
Agree with this assessment however ELON will not jump to a 1 or 2 seed...best I figure they will do is a 3 or 4 based on SOS, dont think beating US(JMU) would be enough of a bump to get put at 1 or 2 ( if we lose to Elon and they win out i can easily see JMU and ELON being # 3&4 in whatever order.
but thats just my take
Elon currently has the better strength of schedule according to Sagarin. They are a 131 compared to 161 for James Madison.
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10-31-2017 03:54 PM |
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bcp_jmu
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RE: Hypothetical
haha...so a win against them will help our SOS
If we lose to them, it's expected and we get a #1 seed! :)
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10-31-2017 05:23 PM |
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Potomac
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 01:37 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: (10-31-2017 12:35 PM)Potomac Wrote: (10-31-2017 12:12 PM)BDKJMU Wrote: No chance in hell the MVFC would have the 3 top seeds with a JMU loss. The past 5 seasons or so that the MVFC has been seen as the best conference they've never had more than 2 seeded teams. USD already has a loss and still has @ NDSU. SDSU has 2 losses and hosts NDSU this weekend. In the slim chance there's a 3rd seeded MVFC team it would be the #7 or #8 seed..
Yeah if NDSU is #2, it means they went through USD and SDSU, who are no longer anywhere near the top 5 seeds. No chance of it happening. One of those three will end up not seeded, unless at least one of them beats NDSU. Then all three will be in the 2-5 range at the highest against an undefeated JMU.
Since went to 8 seeds in 2013, MVFC:
2013: #1 NDSU
2014: #2 NDSU, #5 ILSU
2015: #2 ILSU, #3 NDSU
2016: #1 NDSU, #8 SDSU
REMOTE chance 3 seeded MVFC. ZERO chance they'll put 3 MVFC top 5.
Since going to 8 seeds, I don't know if any one conference has ever received more than two seeds. We have to assume it won't happen until it does.
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11-02-2017 09:31 AM |
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Potomac
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 03:36 PM)JMU_Degenerate Wrote: after looking at Sag ELOs (my post here: http://csnbbs.com/thread-831889-post-147...id14731948) I have changed my mind.
Win out - 1/2 seed
Any one loss - Top 4 seed (but probably still 1/2 seed). Lose to Elon and Elon wins out and wins CAA they may jump onto 1/2 seed line.
Any two losses - Top 8 seed
Lose out - host a game Thanksgiving Weekend
Yep. This URI game this weekend is important because it likely clinches any seed and a first round bye.
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11-02-2017 09:34 AM |
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Potomac
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-31-2017 05:23 PM)bcp_jmu Wrote: haha...so a win against them will help our SOS
If we lose to them, it's expected and we get a #1 seed! :)
We're still favored against them, so it's not expected. It will improve our SOS rating though compared to today, obviously beating a top 10 team (as of today).
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11-02-2017 09:36 AM |
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JMURocks
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RE: Hypothetical
I think the Sagarin ELO is completely irrelevant to the selection committee.
The Championship manual states “A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.”
That looks pretty straightforward to me.
The NCAA SRS formula is also basically laid out, though it would take some time to calculate for all teams. This is the only rating/poll that is officially used by the selection committee. It also looks to me like SRS rating influenced the committee to give NDSU the #1 seed, and EWU #2 last year. If NDSU and JMU are both undefeated at the end of the season, I now believe the SRS rating will be the tiebreaker.
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11-02-2017 11:20 AM |
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BDKJMU
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RE: Hypothetical
(11-02-2017 11:20 AM)JMURocks Wrote: I think the Sagarin ELO is completely irrelevant to the selection committee.
The Championship manual states “A team’s SOS measure is simply the average NCAA SRS rating of that team’s opponents for the season.”
That looks pretty straightforward to me.
The NCAA SRS formula is also basically laid out, though it would take some time to calculate for all teams. This is the only rating/poll that is officially used by the selection committee. It also looks to me like SRS rating influenced the committee to give NDSU the #1 seed, and EWU #2 last year. If NDSU and JMU are both undefeated at the end of the season, I now believe the SRS rating will be the tiebreaker.
NDSU got the #1 seed over EWU last year because they won head to head in OT in Fargo..
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11-02-2017 07:31 PM |
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Dukester
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RE: Hypothetical
(10-30-2017 03:48 PM)UofRfan Wrote: I would think 1 loss would make Top 2 possible still and pretty certain top 4, but not sure how the committee is going to treat the 1 loss teams to differentiate. FBS win and defending champs you would think not hurt cause even if probably isn't in the "criteria'.
Would be very unlikely JMU loses a regular season game, hope it doesn't happen for home field to frisco purposes.
yep
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11-02-2017 07:42 PM |
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POTUS#4
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RE: Hypothetical
(11-02-2017 07:42 PM)Dukester Wrote: (10-30-2017 03:48 PM)UofRfan Wrote: I would think 1 loss would make Top 2 possible still and pretty certain top 4, but not sure how the committee is going to treat the 1 loss teams to differentiate. FBS win and defending champs you would think not hurt cause even if probably isn't in the "criteria'.
Would be very unlikely JMU loses a regular season game, hope it doesn't happen for home field to frisco purposes.
yep
Yeah some of the above predictions are a bit too pessimistic. JMU is now in the enviable position of being one of those teams that will get the benefit of the doubt with an unexpected loss. Other than the Bison, I’m not sure if any other 1 loss team would be ranked ahead of JMU and there surely wouldn’t be 3 or 4 ranked above us. Also, some of the current 1 loss teams are gonna lose another game. But it’s all a mute point anyway, right?
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11-03-2017 07:15 PM |
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