Transic_nyc
1st String
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I Root For: Return To Stability
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RE: An Homage to The Insanity of Twitter Dudes:
(10-19-2017 10:37 AM)JRsec Wrote: (10-19-2017 07:28 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote: (10-19-2017 12:34 AM)JRsec Wrote: (10-19-2017 12:02 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote: (10-18-2017 01:38 AM)JRsec Wrote: Big 10:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse
Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue
Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin
California, Oregon, Stanford, U.S.C., Washington
Big 12:
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Colorado, Oregon State, U.C.L.A., Utah, Washington State
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Nebraska, Missouri
Arkansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas
SEC:
Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M
Clemson, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Trans America Conference:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Central Florida, East Carolina, Miami, South Florida, Wake Forest
Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, Wyoming
Houston, Louisville, Memphis, S.M.U., Tulane
Now we have a P4 of 80 schools.
Now that I've printed this alignment MHver3 can concoct an anonymous twitter source tall tale to explain it all.
He can have Nebraska, Arkansas, and Missouri sources for the return to the Big 12.
He can create PAC Man to explain why the West Coast was gobbled up.
He can hype the return of The Backyard Brawl and talk about how WVU is P4 and back with friends and rivals. And he can even credit all of it as being Oliver Luck's master grand plan that was hatched with Deloss Dodds low those many years ago and how it all played out as they had foreseen because ever mother who ever read a realignment thread knows that the whole danged world revolves around Morgantown.
And to top it all off with a major king sized cherry on top, the ACC has met its demise!
If that doesn't make Eer's everywhere have to put plastic sheets on the bed nothing ever will!
I'll tell you this: each subsequent realignment scenario you've put out has been more interesting than the previous. In a way, I like this better than your idea of a P3 consisting of 20 each. The obvious question is how much would the fourth new conference would generate in the open market. I'm not sure West Virginia would leave the Big 12 in the case of them adding programs in the plains and West. The fourth conference would have to generate revenues that would be nearly comparable to what the other three would receive and then it's a matter of whether it's worth it for them to be in a more regional division.
All tiers of rights the 4th conference would have to make 35 total to be viable. So they essentially get paid whatever the Big 12 was making.
It does yield some nice groupings for the Big 10 & SEC. And the Big 12 makes some sense too.
But as far as West Virginia is concerned being in a P4 is better than watching the Big 12 implode with nowhere else to go.
Plus OOC games with this conference would help to balance things record wise and if their champ got in every year the access would also be a reward.
At 35 even Miami makes more. When you figure travel you have 4 divisional games all within your area. If you play 2 schools from each of the other divisions on a rotating basis that's 10 games. Any body you want to play as a permanent rival would count as an OOC game in years when they weren't in the rotation and those games out of the rotation wouldn't count in conference standings.
The other issue is would the Big 12 make the internal changes needed to be an attractive home for several programs in the future. It's one thing to say that the solution is to bring in some big name programs the other thing is to make yourselves an attractive option for programs who might want to switch. I'm not sure the current set-up of having a combined top-two tier and individualized third-tier media contracts is the future. Money won't grow for eternity and the name of the game is exposure, especially exposure to alumni living across the country and even outside. That is what makes streaming an attractive proposition. The LHN would have to be dealt with sooner or later. Why wouldn't UT want to increase exposure for their programs when football isn't in season? Then there's Oklahoma, where a good part of their fans is constantly unhappy and would take any spot elsewhere except the ACC. Can they be persuaded that they can see an improved Big 12 with better exposure and great stability?
If you have to wager between the Pac 12 and Big 12 surviving the next round which has a better chance?
Since Texas made almost 51 million last year in total TV rights, I'd say that if Texas decides to move the Big 12 is history first, but if Texas decides to stay and Oklahoma does as well out of fear of alienating Bevo the way the Aggies did, that the Big 12 could dig in like a tick because the other 8 won't do a danged thing, even in 2024-5. Nobody wants any of the rest without Texas or Oklahoma and that includes Kansas.
If key AAU schools in the PAC want to move together to the Big 10 and form a division I suppose it's possible, but not likely due to travel in minor sports.
So, my guess is that both could stand pat for quite some time.
However, if the PAC tosses in with ESPN for Network carriage and management then it is quite possible since ESPN controls Texas until 2035 through the LHN that ESPN could sanction and orchestrate a mass move of Big 12 product to the PAC.
So it is this last scenario that has the highest degree of likelihood to happen.
And this is why I just can't get into the idea that Nebraska would consider going back to the Big 12. They should learn the last time when it was thought that UT, et al, would leave them and Mizzou behind in a diminished conference. Someone at another board said that the PAC had expansion models that included Colorado and Texas, Colorado and Utah and then a six-team scenario that included UT, OU, CU, A&M and TT. I suppose if the PAC shows interest in bringing along NU, KU and OU then maybe it can happen. But I would hold on to the safety and security of the Big Ten before anything else right now.
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