(09-21-2017 01:32 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote: Triple A, do you really think its fair to compare making the NCAA back in the 50's, 60s and 70s to today when the amount of teams going to the tourney is double to quadruple the amount?
The real comparison is from 1985 onward when the went to 64 or maybe when they were at 48 teams starting in 1980.
Starting in 1980, we've been to the tournament 21 times in 38 years. A little better than every other year.
We've also gone to 10 Sweet 16s in those 38 years. A little better than once every 4 years.
I don't think Tiger fans are being too unreasonable to expect 5 to 6 tourney bids every decade and a Sweet 16 every 4 years(or 2 to 3 a decade).
First, that's not what '83 said. He said 8 appearances out of 10 years, and a S16 every 4 years.
So, let's do the math from 1985.
That's 33 seasons. We had 18 appearances. That's a little better than half (54.5%). '83 said it should be 8 out of 10 (80%).
And if you delete the vacated appearances, it's now 15 out of 33, less than half. The 80% expectation for appearances is BS.
Sweet 16s were 7 out of 33 years. That's about 22%. One out of every 4-5 years. That one is okay. I agree with it.
HOWEVER, if you remove the vacated appearances, it's now 5 out of 33, or 16%. That's one every 6-7 years.
So, the math from 1985 is actually worse, when you consider the vacated appearances.
And it's not significantly different from all time stats, even without that.
Like I said, expectations are generally overblown.