This is actually both complicated, and surprisingly simple

IN:

Troy (9-2)
App (9-3)
Idaho (7-4)
AState (6-5)

Could still get in:

Louisiana (5-6) @ ULM
South Alabama (5-6) vs NMSU (Waiver from NCAA)


What we know:

1. All eligible and waiver eligible Sun Belt teams are guaranteed a bowl game because we're going to hit about 75 6 win teams this year max. 78 after all the waivers are exhausted

2. Assuming UL or USA wins, then Idaho will be locked into the Arizona Bowl

3. The Only Sun Belt Team that can get shipped to a non conference tied Bowl in almost all plausible scenarios is South Alabama. In theory the others bowls could release another SBC team for a better shot, but the numbers show no practical way it plays out

If South and UL both win, South will get shipped outside the league, and will fall into the fancy waiver rules. I am not entirely sure if South picks their bowl, or the bowl picks South, but they get waiver priority over all other teams on a waiver or APR bump. That means South is looking at a likely far flung bowl destination, unless horse trading is done, and even then Idaho is probably the trade bait.

Now the murky part:

1. Will New Orleans take a 6-6 UL, or will they go after a Troy or App State? If NOLA takes the Cajuns, Troy will likely go Mobile, leaving App and AState to fight over Montgomery and Orlando. Who goes where is murky since App might actually prefer an AAC matchup to a 6-6 MAC

2. If NOLA passes on UL, and takes say Troy. Then it likely slots in normally with App to Mobile, AState to Montgomery, and UL to Orlando.

With Southern Miss bowl eligible, ULL knocking on the door, New Orleans seems like a longshot for Troy. They would salivate at a possible Southern Miss/ULL matchup. Troy having played Southern Miss in the regular season greatly lowers Troy's chance of playing in this bowl.

Mobile has had Troy once, but Arkansas State recently, maybe twice? Arkansas State gets the edge here. Montgomery probably doesn't want Troy because it's within driving distance and won't make much revenue for the city. They've had APP and may want them again. Orlando for Troy (on a BS network) could in the cards.

I still think Idaho gets a look by the Potato Bowl committee.

(11-27-2016 02:53 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  With Southern Miss bowl eligible, ULL knocking on the door, New Orleans seems like a longshot for Troy. They would salivate at a possible Southern Miss/ULL matchup. Troy having played Southern Miss in the regular season greatly lowers Troy's chance of playing in this bowl.

Mobile has had Troy once, but Arkansas State recently, maybe twice? Arkansas State gets the edge here. Montgomery probably doesn't want Troy because it's within driving distance and won't make much revenue for the city. They've had APP and may want them again. Orlando for Troy (on a BS network) could in the cards.

Troy to Mobile. Bank on it, there was 3 bowl committees at the Troy vs USA game and Dollar general was one of them. I'm quite sure they were highly impressed with our turnout. On a side note to this, there's a very good chance Toledo is going to this bowl and if that's so they won't want a rematch with stAte just as Nola won't want that with Troy/USM

So no scenario where App goes to NO?

(11-27-2016 07:44 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  So no scenario where App goes to NO?

I would say it is unlikely.


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(11-27-2016 05:11 AM)VandalBasher Wrote:  I still think Idaho gets a look by the Potato Bowl committee.

Then who goes to Arizona?

(11-27-2016 02:53 AM)TroyFootball05 Wrote:  With Southern Miss bowl eligible, ULL knocking on the door, New Orleans seems like a longshot for Troy. They would salivate at a possible Southern Miss/ULL matchup. Troy having played Southern Miss in the regular season greatly lowers Troy's chance of playing in this bowl.

Mobile has had Troy once, but Arkansas State recently, maybe twice? Arkansas State gets the edge here. Montgomery probably doesn't want Troy because it's within driving distance and won't make much revenue for the city. They've had APP and may want them again. Orlando for Troy (on a BS network) could in the cards.

Wouldn't mind watching that matchup. ULL and southern miss would be a good game

(11-27-2016 08:08 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(11-27-2016 05:11 AM)VandalBasher Wrote:  I still think Idaho gets a look by the Potato Bowl committee.

Then who goes to Arizona?

These guys are such novices to the bowl games they still don't understand the process. They're going to AZ whether they like it or not.


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Great write up Chief.

Which non-Sun Belt bowls would South be considered?

(11-27-2016 08:57 AM)MobileBama1 Wrote:  Great write up Chief.

Which non-Sun Belt bowls would South be considered?

Have to figure out the shorts. I'm wondering about Birmingham maybe.


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I'm in agreement here. I believe the Cajuns are NO bound if they win. I think Troy heads to Mobile, A-State to Montgomery and App to Mickey's Ranch...Idaho heads to Arizona.

South could well head to Birmingham to play Memphis.

IF the Cajuns lose, I think Troy is in NO, AState in Mobile, South goes to Montgomery. App still plays in Orlando, Idaho in Arizona.

(11-27-2016 07:44 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  So no scenario where App goes to NO?

I don't see one. They'll either take the league's best record in Troy, or the local flavor with UL. The only scenario I could see would involve Southern Miss going to New Orleans, and the Cajuns losing to ULM. At that point, NOLA wouldn't take Troy for a rematch, so they'd have to choose between App and stAte, but even then I think it's 50/50 they'd take App/

(11-27-2016 09:23 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I'm in agreement here. I believe the Cajuns are NO bound if they win. I think Troy heads to Mobile, A-State to Montgomery and App to Mickey's Ranch...Idaho heads to Arizona.

South could well head to Birmingham to play Memphis.

IF the Cajuns lose, I think Troy is in NO, AState in Mobile, South goes to Montgomery. App still plays in Orlando, Idaho in Arizona.

If Birmingham is open and Memphis is the opponent, I wonder what the odds are that stAte could work out a deal to take that spot and let South have Montgomery.

My guess is if the Cajuns and Jags both win then one of USA and AState is going to a non-Sun Belt tied bowl game unless something like Cactus or Tater Bowl is open then Idaho could land in Cactus or Famous Tater.

(11-27-2016 01:34 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-27-2016 09:23 AM)BirdofParadise Wrote:  I'm in agreement here. I believe the Cajuns are NO bound if they win. I think Troy heads to Mobile, A-State to Montgomery and App to Mickey's Ranch...Idaho heads to Arizona.

South could well head to Birmingham to play Memphis.

IF the Cajuns lose, I think Troy is in NO, AState in Mobile, South goes to Montgomery. App still plays in Orlando, Idaho in Arizona.

If Birmingham is open and Memphis is the opponent, I wonder what the odds are that stAte could work out a deal to take that spot and let South have Montgomery.

I think if Birmingham vs. Memphis is involved, it will bring on a potential scenario where Birmingham negotiates with Montgomery or Orlando to bring StAte or App into the mix because those are the two premier Sun Belt teams not involved in a decent matchup given said scenario of Troy playing Toledo in Mobile. South would match up a lot better against a 6-6 MAC or American team and App or StAte would matchup better against Memphis no doubt. It would be interesting to see wether they value the two hour proximity advantage StAte has to Birmingham over App vs. App's overall record and nonconference success in comparison.

(11-27-2016 01:44 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  My guess is if the Cajuns and Jags both win then one of USA and AState is going to a non-Sun Belt tied bowl game unless something like Cactus or Tater Bowl is open then Idaho could land in Cactus or Famous Tater.

The PAC 12 will be 1 team short on their bowl commitments, which means they'll vacate the Cactus, but the MWC is the backup on that bowl and they'll be able to fill it with Hawaii winning. So I think it's Tucson for us.

If everyone involved actually wanted to work in the best interest of the state we'd play BSU in the Potato Bowl this year. But the Bronco faithful are freaking out at the mere possibility of such a thing happening, so it won't.

Important to remember is that the Sun Belt will try its best to get the most ideal match ups for the league as well ... the bowl games could be the tipping factor in the final conference rankings which is of course $$$$.

(11-27-2016 01:32 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-27-2016 07:44 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  So no scenario where App goes to NO?

. At that point, NOLA wouldn't take Troy for a rematch, so they'd have to choose between App and stAte, but even then I think it's 50/50 they'd take App/

50/50 between two teams? You don't say.

(11-27-2016 05:37 PM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(11-27-2016 01:32 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(11-27-2016 07:44 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  So no scenario where App goes to NO?

. At that point, NOLA wouldn't take Troy for a rematch, so they'd have to choose between App and stAte, but even then I think it's 50/50 they'd take App/

50/50 between two teams? You don't say.

I said 50/50 between who they take. New Orleans is an odd duck, they have never really cared who the top team is, they take who will bring more fans.

Mobile is the one who likes to take the best team.