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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #4541
RE: Trump Administration
Lad is making a distinction without a difference. Or is it the other way around?

The point is, he is making that distinction in order to not be evenhanded in his criticisms. The two situations are basically the same, but he cannot condemn one AND be OK with the other without a distinction between them, so he makes one up.
08-15-2018 11:55 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #4542
RE: Trump Administration
(08-15-2018 11:55 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Lad is making a distinction without a difference. Or is it the other way around?
The point is, he is making that distinction in order to not be evenhanded in his criticisms. The two situations are basically the same, but he cannot condemn one AND be OK with the other without a distinction between them, so he makes one up.

Lad is making the only distinction he can find to support his position. It is a patently absurd distinction, because is is a patently absurd position.

I'm reminded of the old joke where an attorney tells a friend he will be in court that day trying a rape case and the friend asks, "Well, are you representing the f***er or the f***ee?" Lad is trying to explain how being the do-ee is worse than being the do-er.

Being approached may or may not be collusion, but collusion is not a crime. Being approached, reaching agreement to do something illegal, and then completing at least one act in furtherance of that illegal objective is a crime, called conspiracy. We have evidence that the Trump campaign was approached. That's like the policewoman disguised as the hooker approaching the guy. That's it.

Wat do we have with Clinton? They approached intermediaries, who did their bidding by approaching others and the chain eventually gets to Fusion GPS and Steele, who reached agreement and carried out acts in furtherance of that agreement. The question is whether the objective was legal or illegal. If the object was illegal, then we have criminal conspiracy. And everybody in the chain is potentially criminally liable.

Now, here's where it gets interesting. Exactly how did the dossier get to the FBI and what did the FBI do with it? Did they just come up with it out of the blue, or were they somehow led to it? If the FBI used any part of the information, without independent verification, to support an ex parte FISA warrant application, then that application was improper and the warrant was improperly issued. Would any information obtained pursuant to the warrant be of at least suspect admissibility? Yes, and probably inadmissible. How far would the fruit of the poisonous tree extend? Who knows? Was that conduct improper? Clearly. Was it illegal? Maybe. Could you have a situation where the Clinton campaign engaged in criminal conspiracy with elements of the FBI (not "the FBI," but certain persons within the FBI)? Absolutely.

As far as "the Russians" having ulterior motives, where did Steele get his information? From "the Russians," with whom he had a cozy relationship. Would not "the Russians" have had those same ulterior motives in providing info to Steele? Did not Steele himself have ulterior motives?

I admit I haven't followed every single detail of the investigation, in part because I was out of the country for a few days, so my questions are serious, not rhetorical. If anyone can fill in facts to answer any of them, please do so.
(This post was last modified: 08-16-2018 09:07 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-16-2018 05:12 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #4543
RE: Trump Administration
Once upon a time, there were two neighbors.

One, a woman, heard there was a snake oil that had magical powers. They asked their uncle to get them some. The uncle hired a neighbor boy to go to the snake oil store, and when the boy returned, sent the snake oil to the old woman. she was delighted and had her servants set about spreading the snake to her loyal followers.

The other answered his door one day to find a door-to-door salesman. the salesman says "I have something that will make your life better", and so the man says, "what would that be?" Snake oil, replies the salesman. Get out of here, you charlatan, the man says. Go peddle your snake oil elsewhere.

Now, of course we know the man was evil, for even letting the snake oil salesman in the door. But the lady is pure, since she merely sent for the snake oil and never handled it with her own hands.

the ulterior motive of the snake oil providers in both cases seem to be a desire to get a quid pro quo, but they only succeeded with the old woman. They got the money and the satisfaction of knowing their snake oil was out in the world, working its magic.

Thus ends this fairy tale.

The moral of this story is to avoid buying snake oil from unlicensed and shady purveyors unless you want to end up with substandard snake oil.
08-16-2018 08:50 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #4544
RE: Trump Administration
(08-16-2018 08:50 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Once upon a time, there were two neighbors.

One, a woman, heard there was a snake oil that had magical powers. They asked their uncle to get them some. The uncle hired a neighbor boy to go to the snake oil store, and when the boy returned, sent the snake oil to the old woman. she was delighted and had her servants set about spreading the snake to her loyal followers.

The other answered his door one day to find a door-to-door salesman. the salesman says "I have something that will make your life better", and so the man says, "what would that be?" Snake oil, replies the salesman. Get out of here, you charlatan, the man says. Go peddle your snake oil elsewhere.

Now, of course we know the man was evil, for even letting the snake oil salesman in the door. But the lady is pure, since she merely sent for the snake oil and never handled it with her own hands.

the ulterior motive of the snake oil providers in both cases seem to be a desire to get a quid pro quo, but they only succeeded with the old woman. They got the money and the satisfaction of knowing their snake oil was out in the world, working its magic.

Thus ends this fairy tale.

The moral of this story is to avoid buying snake oil from unlicensed and shady purveyors unless you want to end up with substandard snake oil.

Yep - that's a perfect analogy for what happened. A+
08-16-2018 09:35 AM
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Post: #4545
RE: Trump Administration
(08-16-2018 09:35 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-16-2018 08:50 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Once upon a time, there were two neighbors.

One, a woman, heard there was a snake oil that had magical powers. They asked their uncle to get them some. The uncle hired a neighbor boy to go to the snake oil store, and when the boy returned, sent the snake oil to the old woman. she was delighted and had her servants set about spreading the snake to her loyal followers.

The other answered his door one day to find a door-to-door salesman. the salesman says "I have something that will make your life better", and so the man says, "what would that be?" Snake oil, replies the salesman. Get out of here, you charlatan, the man says. Go peddle your snake oil elsewhere.

Now, of course we know the man was evil, for even letting the snake oil salesman in the door. But the lady is pure, since she merely sent for the snake oil and never handled it with her own hands.

the ulterior motive of the snake oil providers in both cases seem to be a desire to get a quid pro quo, but they only succeeded with the old woman. They got the money and the satisfaction of knowing their snake oil was out in the world, working its magic.

Thus ends this fairy tale.

The moral of this story is to avoid buying snake oil from unlicensed and shady purveyors unless you want to end up with substandard snake oil.

Yep - that's a perfect analogy for what happened. A+

You are an easy grader (but we knew that already). I would have given it a B, a B+ at best.

A second moral would be that if you want to mine manure, best to get your minions to do it for you.
08-16-2018 11:10 AM
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tanqtonic Offline
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Post: #4546
RE: Trump Administration
(08-16-2018 11:10 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-16-2018 09:35 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-16-2018 08:50 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Once upon a time, there were two neighbors.

One, a woman, heard there was a snake oil that had magical powers. They asked their uncle to get them some. The uncle hired a neighbor boy to go to the snake oil store, and when the boy returned, sent the snake oil to the old woman. she was delighted and had her servants set about spreading the snake to her loyal followers.

The other answered his door one day to find a door-to-door salesman. the salesman says "I have something that will make your life better", and so the man says, "what would that be?" Snake oil, replies the salesman. Get out of here, you charlatan, the man says. Go peddle your snake oil elsewhere.

Now, of course we know the man was evil, for even letting the snake oil salesman in the door. But the lady is pure, since she merely sent for the snake oil and never handled it with her own hands.

the ulterior motive of the snake oil providers in both cases seem to be a desire to get a quid pro quo, but they only succeeded with the old woman. They got the money and the satisfaction of knowing their snake oil was out in the world, working its magic.

Thus ends this fairy tale.

The moral of this story is to avoid buying snake oil from unlicensed and shady purveyors unless you want to end up with substandard snake oil.

Yep - that's a perfect analogy for what happened. A+

You are an easy grader (but we knew that already). I would have given it a B, a B+ at best.

A second moral would be that if you want to mine manure, best to get your minions to do it for you.

Third moral: Kickstart for a startup called "Cutouts 'R Us" -- marketing logo of "we will do those nasty little chores that you dont want tied back to you directly".

I think Trump and company will be a little bit more suave and sophisticated about using cutouts in the future. It seemingly works like a fing charm for the press and readers, since there is such an obvious and clear distinction with the same end result....

But then the Washington Post will have a headline on that as "Trump GUTS campaign laws" (or somefink...)
08-16-2018 11:20 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #4547
RE: Trump Administration
Facebook ads

The ads show a complicated effort that didn’t necessarily hew to promoting Trump and bashing Clinton. Instead, they show a desire to create divisions while sometimes praising Trump, Sanders and Stein. A number of the ads seemed to question Clinton’s authenticity and tout some of the liberal criticisms of her candidacy.

Clinton pointedly notes that Stein joined Michael Flynn at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s table at a December 2015 dinner in Moscow, and that the leftist candidate “praised [Trump’s] pro-Russia stance,”

Suspicious, eh? Lot of smoke there. Investigate Stein!!
(This post was last modified: 08-16-2018 12:00 PM by OptimisticOwl.)
08-16-2018 11:56 AM
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Post: #4548
RE: Trump Administration
(08-16-2018 11:20 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(08-16-2018 11:10 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-16-2018 09:35 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-16-2018 08:50 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Once upon a time, there were two neighbors.

One, a woman, heard there was a snake oil that had magical powers. They asked their uncle to get them some. The uncle hired a neighbor boy to go to the snake oil store, and when the boy returned, sent the snake oil to the old woman. she was delighted and had her servants set about spreading the snake to her loyal followers.

The other answered his door one day to find a door-to-door salesman. the salesman says "I have something that will make your life better", and so the man says, "what would that be?" Snake oil, replies the salesman. Get out of here, you charlatan, the man says. Go peddle your snake oil elsewhere.

Now, of course we know the man was evil, for even letting the snake oil salesman in the door. But the lady is pure, since she merely sent for the snake oil and never handled it with her own hands.

the ulterior motive of the snake oil providers in both cases seem to be a desire to get a quid pro quo, but they only succeeded with the old woman. They got the money and the satisfaction of knowing their snake oil was out in the world, working its magic.

Thus ends this fairy tale.

The moral of this story is to avoid buying snake oil from unlicensed and shady purveyors unless you want to end up with substandard snake oil.

Yep - that's a perfect analogy for what happened. A+

You are an easy grader (but we knew that already). I would have given it a B, a B+ at best.

A second moral would be that if you want to mine manure, best to get your minions to do it for you.

Third moral: Kickstart for a startup called "Cutouts 'R Us" -- marketing logo of "we will do those nasty little chores that you dont want tied back to you directly".

I think Trump and company will be a little bit more suave and sophisticated about using cutouts in the future. It seemingly works like a fing charm for the press and readers, since there is such an obvious and clear distinction with the same end result....

But then the Washington Post will have a headline on that as "Trump GUTS campaign laws" (or somefink...)

You may need to define what cutouts are for him.
08-16-2018 01:00 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #4549
RE: Trump Administration
Let's say your goal was not to help Trump, but merely to sow dissent and discord. Hillary is odds-on to win, and by a wide margin. So what do you do? Whom do you back? Why Trump, of course, since the opposition will come from the loser's side. Only he didn't lose.

But you've still achieved discord and dissent on a massive scale.
(This post was last modified: 08-16-2018 09:19 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
08-16-2018 06:03 PM
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Post: #4550
RE: Trump Administration
(08-16-2018 06:03 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Let's say your goal was not to help Trump, but merely to sow dissent and discord. Hillary is odds-on to win, and by a wide margin. So what do you do? Whom do you back? Why Trump, of course, since the opposition will come from the loser's side. Only he didn't lose.

Waaaay too simple and logical.
08-16-2018 09:17 PM
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Post: #4551
RE: Trump Administration
And now for something completely different...

...yet still under the topic "Trump Administration".

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...li=BBnbcA1

Whether it is at 36% or 21%, either seems high for a Republican.
08-17-2018 12:20 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #4552
RE: Trump Administration
(08-16-2018 06:03 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Let's say your goal was not to help Trump, but merely to sow dissent and discord. Hillary is odds-on to win, and by a wide margin. So what do you do? Whom do you back? Why Trump, of course, since the opposition will come from the loser's side. Only he didn't lose.

But you've still achieved discord and dissent on a massive scale.

As OO said, perfectly logical. I also think, at a minimum, they knew the Trump campaign was likely to be more open to advances, thus creating kompromat. But it's also perfectly logical that Russia had multiple goals, which is what our intelligence agencies have said. One goal, in particular, was to hurt Hillary because of Putin's personal vendetta against her due to her comments on Putin's election victories, and how he viewed her as being the culprit behind some of the political uprisings during her tenure as SofS. Another was that Clinton was also likely to be very hawkish against Russia, should she have won.

I don't see why you need to diminish this aspect of the Russian interference, it doesn't itself mean that Russia colluded with the Trump campaign.

But getting to a bigger issue I've been thinking about and that I don't understand. Why does it seem like there is always a dismissal of the actions of many people within the Trump administration for how they have handled themselves?

First of all, multiple officials within the campaign lied about their interactions with officials of the Russian government MULTIPLE times, why are some so eager to dismiss those lies? Especially when, in one example, Trump Jr himself finally admitted what his meeting was about after lying about the reasoning behind the meeting numerous times. That alone is troubling behavior and can't fit the narrative some like to use that he just forgot about the meeting. Trump Jr and Trump intentionally tried to cover up that meeting, and that's OK?

Second, why not be critical of an entire campaign that, when confronted with a situation where a representative with the Russian government is trying to provide information to their campaign, did not turn that information over to authorities? Had the Trump campaign been forthright from the beginning, there would be no doubt that no one within the campaign was conspiring with Russia.

It seems to me that it's easy for some to quickly flip the script and try and chastise people like me for not being even-handed, when they themselves are forgetting to even consider the implications and ethics of the actions that many people in the Trump campaign took, regardless of whether they were part of a broader collusion narrative.

And I'd appreciate it if the responses to these didn't turn into an immediate deflection to the Steele dossier, because that doesn't actually answer the questions.
08-17-2018 08:33 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #4553
RE: Trump Administration
(08-17-2018 12:20 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  And now for something completely different...

...yet still under the topic "Trump Administration".

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...li=BBnbcA1

Whether it is at 36% or 21%, either seems high for a Republican.

It's also a Rasmussen poll, which is notoriously favorable to Trump and generally an outlier.

Most other polls still have Trump at around 10% approval rating among African Americans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monk...reddit.com

Gallup is at 13% (https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185...enter.aspx)

Ipsos/Reuters is at 13% (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP...apsed/true)

Civiqs shows 6% (https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...n-American)

And so on. I'd wait until some of these polls start trending upwards to say that Trump's support among the African American population is increasing - right now that Rasmussen poll is a significant outlier.
08-17-2018 08:44 AM
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Post: #4554
RE: Trump Administration
(08-17-2018 08:33 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-16-2018 06:03 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Let's say your goal was not to help Trump, but merely to sow dissent and discord. Hillary is odds-on to win, and by a wide margin. So what do you do? Whom do you back? Why Trump, of course, since the opposition will come from the loser's side. Only he didn't lose.
But you've still achieved discord and dissent on a massive scale.
As OO said, perfectly logical. I also think, at a minimum, they knew the Trump campaign was likely to be more open to advances, thus creating kompromat.

Based upon what? That's my problem with all of this. There are assertions like that which we are supposed to accept, with nothing to back them up.

Quote:But it's also perfectly logical that Russia had multiple goals, which is what our intelligence agencies have said. One goal, in particular, was to hurt Hillary because of Putin's personal vendetta against her due to her comments on Putin's election victories, and how he viewed her as being the culprit behind some of the political uprisings during her tenure as SofS. Another was that Clinton was also likely to be very hawkish against Russia, should she have won.

Why? Obama wasn't, not even when Hillary was SecState. And remember the stupid "reset" button? That was Hillary, remember? The whole argument against Trump hangs on this idea that Trump was somehow easily manipulated by "the Russians." So far, I see nothing to support this allegation--except allegations.

Let's talk Crimea. Or during the GWB administration, Georgia. Exactly what do you think would be a reasonable hawkish response? Sanctions have never, ever proved to be truly effective, as long as someone is willing to look the other way. And as long as Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for oil and gas, there are going to be people willing to look the other way. Trump has actually tried to address that a bit, by pushing LNG exports from US to Europe as an alternative for them. And his insistence that Europe spend more for its own defense is not "destroying NATO" but recognizing what is reality. Any kind of military response to either Crimea or Georgia would have been extremely difficult to mount. We can't take carriers into the Black Sea under international law, and that severely limits our options.

Quote:I don't see why you need to diminish this aspect of the Russian interference, it doesn't itself mean that Russia colluded with the Trump campaign.

I have never diminished any aspect of Russian interference. They have been interfering for years. The greatest diminishment that I have seen came from those who insisted that Russia could not have hacked Hillary's unsecure server, because we never saw the information on Wikileaks. Believe me, there's about a 99.9% chance that they hacked her, and did so repeatedly, and about a 0% chance that they would ever have put anything they got from hacking her on Wikileaks or revealed it publicly in any way. That would have alerted us that there was a problem, and we would presumably have taken corrective action that would have cut off a source of intel for them.

I think we need to do everything we can to defend against Russian (and other foreign) interference, and frankly I don't think we've ever done enough. I am all for finding and implementing stronger data security processes and procedures. So far, I've seen nothing that the Mueller investigation has done, or even attempted to do, in that regard.

Quote:But getting to a bigger issue I've been thinking about and that I don't understand. Why does it seem like there is always a dismissal of the actions of many people within the Trump administration for how they have handled themselves?
First of all, multiple officials within the campaign lied about their interactions with officials of the Russian government MULTIPLE times, why are some so eager to dismiss those lies? Especially when, in one example, Trump Jr himself finally admitted what his meeting was about after lying about the reasoning behind the meeting numerous times. That alone is troubling behavior and can't fit the narrative some like to use that he just forgot about the meeting. Trump Jr and Trump intentionally tried to cover up that meeting, and that's OK?
Second, why not be critical of an entire campaign that, when confronted with a situation where a representative with the Russian government is trying to provide information to their campaign, did not turn that information over to authorities? Had the Trump campaign been forthright from the beginning, there would be no doubt that no one within the campaign was conspiring with Russia.
It seems to me that it's easy for some to quickly flip the script and try and chastise people like me for not being even-handed, when they themselves are forgetting to even consider the implications and ethics of the actions that many people in the Trump campaign took, regardless of whether they were part of a broader collusion narrative.
And I'd appreciate it if the responses to these didn't turn into an immediate deflection to the Steele dossier, because that doesn't actually answer the questions.

To respond to your last point, your "flipping the script" reminds me to ask the question, Why aren't you even-handed? We've got better documentation of similar, if not worse, transgressions by Hillary and her minions on repeated occasions. The genesis of this whole conversation, the appearance in the public forum of what should have been confidential internal communications among Podesta and other members of the DNC, occurred because those parties did not take adequate security measures. That's the same thing that was alleged about Hillary and her server. The Clinton organization has repeatedly shown a blatant disregard for information security, going back to Sandy Berger stealing classified information in his socks.

I don't know whether Donald Trump is guilty of any crime or not. If he were accused of any crime that I can imagine, and I were sitting on the jury, based on everything that has been disclosed to date, I would be compelled to vote not guilty. No crime has been proved. If Hillary Clinton were accused of hazarding national security information or perjury or obstruction of justice, and I were sitting on the jury, based upon everything that I know to date, I would be compelled to vote guilty. Comey recited every element of each of those crimes, and multiple counts in most cases.

If either, or anyone else, is guilty of a crime, he or she should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. I don't know whether Donald Trump is guilty or not. I know that the facts are there to support prosecution and conviction or Hillary Clinton for multiple crimes. I don't know that I support prosecuting either one. That is what banana republics do. Prosecute your enemies to eliminate them.

So why are you not even-handed?

To respond to your other points, I don't know that anybody is dismissing anything. I would characterize it more as the things just don't amount to anything. What we have from best evidence at this point is that Donald Jr. met with someone who was Russian, and walked out of the meeting with no agreement to do anything, and nothing further was done as a result of the meeting. That's a major nothing burger. Do I like that it happened? No. Do I think it's okay that it happened? Probably not. Does that mean it is legally actionable in any way, civil or criminal? Nope.

Do I like lying about interactions with "the Russians"? No. But what if such interactions are meaningless? Right now, there is no indication that anything meaningful occurred. If that changes, then my position toward them changes. They MIGHT have talked about a lot of things. Hell, they MIGHT have talked about planting a hidden nuclear device under Wall Street--or under the Kremlin, for that matter. But there is no indication that they DID talk about such things. That's where we move from allegation to evidence. And that's where I draw the line.
08-17-2018 09:09 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #4555
RE: Trump Administration
Just so we're clear, I don't think Trump is guilty of a crime, based on what we know right now. And I haven't suggested as such, nor asked you to tell me if you thought he was guilty of a crime. I'm not sure why you brought up legality of actions we know about, when I never did. I specifically wanted opinions on the actions of the Trump campaign, not on the legality of them. People are critical of other's actions for reasons far more wide ranging than their legality.

I've also been steadfast in maintaining that I find it more likely that Trump campaign officials were involved with conspiracy/collusion activities than Trump (if any happened). Yet for some reason, all of the responses I keep getting seem to imply that I'm suggesting Trump himself is guilty of a crime. Almost like people are arguing against a position that I'm not taking...

I can dig a bit more into your responses later.
(This post was last modified: 08-17-2018 09:32 AM by RiceLad15.)
08-17-2018 09:25 AM
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Post: #4556
RE: Trump Administration
(08-17-2018 09:25 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Just so we're clear, I don't think Trump is guilty of a crime, based on what we know right now. And I haven't suggested as such, nor asked you to tell me if you thought he was guilty of a crime. I'm not sure why you brought up legality of actions we know about, when I never did. I specifically wanted opinions on the actions of the Trump campaign, not on the legality of them. People are critical of other's actions for reasons far more wide ranging than their legality.
I've also been steadfast in maintaining that I find it more likely that Trump campaign officials were involved with conspiracy/collusion activities, and not Trump, if any happened. Yet for some reason, all of the responses I keep getting seem to imply that I'm suggesting Trump himself is guilty of a crime. Almost like people are arguing against a position that I'm not taking...
I can dig a bit more into your responses later.

I would agree that there is no evidence to convict Trump of a crime. There is sufficient evidence to convict Hillary of several crimes. So why are we investigating Trump with full force and fury, but not Hillary?

I would agree that there is a higher likelihood that persons in the Trump campaign were involved in conspiracy/collusion activities than Trump himself. I would say exactly the same thing about the Hillary campaign. But I've not seen enough to convict anyone in either campaign. That's the reason for my earlier and longer post asking a bunch of questions.

That's been my point all along. Apply the law evenly to everyone with equal vigor, and let the chips fall where they may. Don't prosecute people for political reasons. That's banana republic stuff.
08-17-2018 09:36 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #4557
RE: Trump Administration
(08-17-2018 08:44 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-17-2018 12:20 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  And now for something completely different...

...yet still under the topic "Trump Administration".

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...li=BBnbcA1

Whether it is at 36% or 21%, either seems high for a Republican.

It's also a Rasmussen poll, which is notoriously favorable to Trump and generally an outlier.

Most other polls still have Trump at around 10% approval rating among African Americans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monk...reddit.com

Gallup is at 13% (https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185...enter.aspx)

Ipsos/Reuters is at 13% (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP...apsed/true)

Civiqs shows 6% (https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...n-American)

And so on. I'd wait until some of these polls start trending upwards to say that Trump's support among the African American population is increasing - right now that Rasmussen poll is a significant outlier.

As the article itself says, Rasmussen usually has a more favorable number. But the 21% number I mentioned also came from the article, and as I mentioned, also seems high for a demographic that notoriously is largely straight ticket Democrat voters.

I think the best way to judge is to compare each poll with its own previous numbers. For example, the Reuters poll at 13% - what was it at a year ago?

In any case, I think it won't make much difference in the voting. Like I said, most of this demographic pull the straight ticket lever, and I believe they will continue to pull it. Seems odd that some people will say to themselves "I have a job, my cousin has a job, my friends have jobs, we are all bringing in more money than ever before, so let's vote in somebody to stop this".

To me, it indicates that if Trump's approval is rising in the black community, t must be rising in all demographics, and if so, the Democrats' campaign of character assassination is losing steam. THAT may have significance in the midterms.
08-17-2018 09:37 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #4558
RE: Trump Administration
(08-17-2018 09:36 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(08-17-2018 09:25 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Just so we're clear, I don't think Trump is guilty of a crime, based on what we know right now. And I haven't suggested as such, nor asked you to tell me if you thought he was guilty of a crime. I'm not sure why you brought up legality of actions we know about, when I never did. I specifically wanted opinions on the actions of the Trump campaign, not on the legality of them. People are critical of other's actions for reasons far more wide ranging than their legality.
I've also been steadfast in maintaining that I find it more likely that Trump campaign officials were involved with conspiracy/collusion activities, and not Trump, if any happened. Yet for some reason, all of the responses I keep getting seem to imply that I'm suggesting Trump himself is guilty of a crime. Almost like people are arguing against a position that I'm not taking...
I can dig a bit more into your responses later.

I would agree that there is no evidence to convict Trump of a crime. There is sufficient evidence to convict Hillary of several crimes. So why are we investigating Trump with full force and fury, but not Hillary?

Because Clinton has been investigate (Benghazi, email server), you just don't seem to agree with, or like, the outcomes of those investigations. It's not as if she hasn't been investigated for the issues you bring up

Quote:I would agree that there is a higher likelihood that persons in the Trump campaign were involved in conspiracy/collusion activities than Trump himself. I would say exactly the same thing about the Hillary campaign. But I've not seen enough to convict anyone in either campaign. That's the reason for my earlier and longer post asking a bunch of questions.

That's been my point all along. Apply the law evenly to everyone with equal vigor, and let the chips fall where they may. Don't prosecute people for political reasons. That's banana republic stuff.

And I agree about applying the law evenly - we should always strive to do that. But when you're constantly on the side of the fence of defending the Trump campaign, it doesn't appear to me as if you think there is anything wrong with what the Trump campaign did.

That's explicitly why I was asking question without regard to the legality of the matters, or the connection to Clinton. To understand how you, OO, and Tanq felt about the actions of the Trump campaign - regardless of proof positive of crimes or what the Clinton campaign did. Far too often have criticisms of the Trump campaign been answered with a deflection. We should be able to evaluate either campaign in a vacuum and not rely on another's opinion of how the opposing party reacted in a similar situation to inform us.
08-17-2018 09:45 AM
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RiceLad15 Offline
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Post: #4559
RE: Trump Administration
(08-17-2018 09:37 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(08-17-2018 08:44 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  
(08-17-2018 12:20 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  And now for something completely different...

...yet still under the topic "Trump Administration".

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/...li=BBnbcA1

Whether it is at 36% or 21%, either seems high for a Republican.

It's also a Rasmussen poll, which is notoriously favorable to Trump and generally an outlier.

Most other polls still have Trump at around 10% approval rating among African Americans.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monk...reddit.com

Gallup is at 13% (https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185...enter.aspx)

Ipsos/Reuters is at 13% (http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP...apsed/true)

Civiqs shows 6% (https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...n-American)

And so on. I'd wait until some of these polls start trending upwards to say that Trump's support among the African American population is increasing - right now that Rasmussen poll is a significant outlier.

As the article itself says, Rasmussen usually has a more favorable number. But the 21% number I mentioned also came from the article, and as I mentioned, also seems high for a demographic that notoriously is largely straight ticket Democrat voters.

I think the best way to judge is to compare each poll with its own previous numbers. For example, the Reuters poll at 13% - what was it at a year ago?

In any case, I think it won't make much difference in the voting. Like I said, most of this demographic pull the straight ticket lever, and I believe they will continue to pull it. Seems odd that some people will say to themselves "I have a job, my cousin has a job, my friends have jobs, we are all bringing in more money than ever before, so let's vote in somebody to stop this".

To me, it indicates that if Trump's approval is rising in the black community, t must be rising in all demographics, and if so, the Democrats' campaign of character assassination is losing steam. THAT may have significance in the midterms.

I provided links to each poll, and there is historical data there. You can look at how his approval numbers have changed over time for many demos.
08-17-2018 09:47 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #4560
RE: Trump Administration
(08-17-2018 09:45 AM)RiceLad15 Wrote:  Because Clinton has been investigate (Benghazi, email server), you just don't seem to agree with, or like, the outcomes of those investigations. It's not as if she hasn't been investigated for the issues you bring up

The problem I have with the server investigation is that the recommendation that she not be prosecuted (not a finding that she is not guilty, merely a recommendation that she not be prosecuted) is inconsistent with the factual record presented. If you agree that the outcome of the server investigation is that the evidence to support a conviction was established, but there was a recommendation not to prosecute based on the exercise of prosecutorial discretion, then I'm okay with that. But to characterize it as she has been investigated and the outcome was that she was found to be innocent (and I'm not quoting you exactly on that, so that may not be what you are trying to say, but many have) is incorrect.

As far as Benghazi, I've said many times, the republican zeal to pin something on Hillary led them to ignore what they should have been doing, which is to find SOMEBODY who was responsible. Somebody was clearly derelict in performance of duty. That can't happen without that. It may well have been someone other than Hillary, very much analogous to your statement that somebody in the Trump campaign is more likely to have engaged in collusion/conspiracy than Trump himself did. Whoever that person is, he or she should be doing time.

Quote:And I agree about applying the law evenly - we should always strive to do that. But when you're constantly on the side of the fence of defending the Trump campaign, it doesn't appear to me as if you think there is anything wrong with what the Trump campaign did.

How am I constantly on the side of the fence defending the Trump campaign? I've been pretty critical of the wall and tariffs, for starters. But I will defend some things, because I'm not hyper partisan and I like some stuff he has done.

Quote:That's explicitly why I was asking question without regard to the legality of the matters, or the connection to Clinton. To understand how you, OO, and Tanq felt about the actions of the Trump campaign - regardless of proof positive of crimes or what the Clinton campaign did. Far too often have criticisms of the Trump campaign been answered with a deflection. We should be able to evaluate either campaign in a vacuum and not rely on another's opinion of how the opposing party reacted in a similar situation to inform us.

Tanq and I are lawyers. We are going to discuss things from the perspective of legality, because that's what we are trained to do. Do I like everything Trump and his staff do? Hell, no. I can't think of any president ever that I liked everything he did. I like some things (corporate tax cuts were necessary, though I'm not all that enthused about the personal side, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, to name a few) and I dislike others (wall, tariffs). I don't like his style, but I'm not Trump. He's a typical New York a-hole. I'm not. He reminds me of Al Czervik (the Rodney Dangerfield character in Caddyshack). He's in an element where things are typically done in a very different way from how he does them. It's disconcerting, but it may be necessary to make needed changes. I think there are better ways to do it, but I'm not in his shoes.

Evaluating both parties in vacuums, I can say this. I don't see anything that Donald Trump has done that would cause me to vote guilty if he were on trial for any offense. I do see things that Hillary Clinton has done that would cause me to vote guilty if she were on trial for violating national security laws, or perjury, or obstruction of justice. I am comfortable with not prosecuting either, because to prosecute either would be at least largely politically motivated, and that's what banana republics do. I'm happy with some things Trump has done, unhappy with others. I'm pretty sure I would be making the same statement about president Hillary had she been elected.

What say you to all of those points?
08-17-2018 10:14 AM
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