(07-28-2016 01:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Big 12 takes BYU for FB only, then adds Navy (also FB only), Houston, and Cincy from the AAC.

In that scenario, the AAC would be left with 9 all sports members. There is no one they could add that would likely improve their CFP revenues or their NCAAT revenues. So why not just stand pat?

They would be left with three members who could hope to make the NCAAT with some regularity (UConn, Temple and Memphis). They would have a 16 game full round robin in hoops, and a perfect 4 home/4 away full round robin in football. Everybody could play in Florida every year. They still have some pretty good markets in their footprint, and with the low payout they have now, it couldn't get much worse if at all with the teams that remain.

With Boise coming back to the pack in football, they still have as good a chance as any conference to get the G5's golden ticket to the NY6. Why mess with that?

In your scenario, they would add 1 team, to be able to be at 10- to be able to have a CCG. And have a 18 game full round robin in hoops.

The minor sports really need the extra teams. They can do affiliates, but its easier to have full members.

(07-28-2016 03:05 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Big 12 takes BYU for FB only, then adds Navy (also FB only), Houston, and Cincy from the AAC.

In that scenario, the AAC would be left with 9 all sports members. There is no one they could add that would likely improve their CFP revenues or their NCAAT revenues. So why not just stand pat?

They would be left with three members who could hope to make the NCAAT with some regularity (UConn, Temple and Memphis). They would have a 16 game full round robin in hoops, and a perfect 4 home/4 away full round robin in football. Everybody could play in Florida every year. They still have some pretty good markets in their footprint, and with the low payout they have now, it couldn't get much worse if at all with the teams that remain.

With Boise coming back to the pack in football, they still have as good a chance as any conference to get the G5's golden ticket to the NY6. Why mess with that?

In your scenario, they would add 1 team, to be able to be at 10- to be able to have a CCG. And have a 18 game full round robin in hoops.

The minor sports really need the extra teams. They can do affiliates, but its easier to have full members.

I agree. But in the scenario laid out above, Navy was gone, so they would be at 9 all sports members. So adding 1 team gets to 10 for everything.

(07-28-2016 03:05 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Big 12 takes BYU for FB only, then adds Navy (also FB only), Houston, and Cincy from the AAC.

In that scenario, the AAC would be left with 9 all sports members. There is no one they could add that would likely improve their CFP revenues or their NCAAT revenues. So why not just stand pat?

They would be left with three members who could hope to make the NCAAT with some regularity (UConn, Temple and Memphis). They would have a 16 game full round robin in hoops, and a perfect 4 home/4 away full round robin in football. Everybody could play in Florida every year. They still have some pretty good markets in their footprint, and with the low payout they have now, it couldn't get much worse if at all with the teams that remain.

With Boise coming back to the pack in football, they still have as good a chance as any conference to get the G5's golden ticket to the NY6. Why mess with that?

In your scenario, they would add 1 team, to be able to be at 10- to be able to have a CCG. And have a 18 game full round robin in hoops.

The minor sports really need the extra teams. They can do affiliates, but its easier to have full members.

If it is true that a conference could stage a championship game with as few as 8 members, and if the CFP payout per team is the same whether you have 8, 9 or 10, but less if you have more than 10 members, and if you wouldn't increase the number of NCAAT units you are likely to earn if you expand because there aren't any basketball powers available, then what we seem to be saying is that a perceived need to have more teams for minor sports is what would drive AAC expansion. I think that sort of turns the prevailing wisdom about expansion on its head.

(07-28-2016 01:36 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:18 PM)ken d Wrote:  Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Big 12 takes BYU for FB only, then adds Navy (also FB only), Houston, and Cincy from the AAC.

In that scenario, the AAC would be left with 9 all sports members. There is no one they could add that would likely improve their CFP revenues or their NCAAT revenues. So why not just stand pat?

They would be left with three members who could hope to make the NCAAT with some regularity (UConn, Temple and Memphis). They would have a 16 game full round robin in hoops, and a perfect 4 home/4 away full round robin in football. Everybody could play in Florida every year. They still have some pretty good markets in their footprint, and with the low payout they have now, it couldn't get much worse if at all with the teams that remain.

With Boise coming back to the pack in football, they still have as good a chance as any conference to get the G5's golden ticket to the NY6. Why mess with that?

In your scenario, they would add 1 team, to be able to be at 10- to be able to have a CCG. And have a 18 game full round robin in hoops.

I get the desire to have a CCG in football, but I don't see a huge difference between having a 16 game full round robin vs an 18 game one. In fact under that scenario UCONN/Temple/whoever of the good basketball programs would rather have more OOC games to increase their SOS. If they were for some reason at 9 all conference members the question that would have to be asked is would any addition be worth more than splitting the pie more ways? At this point I don't know that it would be. C-USA and pretty much every team that continues to reside there has been shown to possess pretty much no value to TV. Maybe you could convince me on NIU and/or UMASS but it's no slam dunk. Only team that might be available that would is Army just because of the Army-Navy game, but they've all but had a standing invite for years and haven't jumped at it.

Have you seen NIU's TV ratings? That might help convince you

2015 season AAC, NIU & Toledo(just for comparison) conference games nationally televised Tues-Fri...
Source - http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-...v-ratings/

Thursday, September 24
1.242M Cincinnati Memphis 7:25PM ESPN

Friday, October 2
1.155M Memphis USF 10:00 PM ESPN2

Thursday, October 8
356K SMU Houston 8:00 PM ESPN2

Friday, October 16
85K Houston Tulane 9:00 PM ESPNU

Thursday, October 22
679K Temple ECU 7:00 PM ESPN2

Friday, October 23
1.216M Memphis Tulsa 7:55 PM ESPN

Friday, October 30
188K ECU UConn 7:00 PM ESPNU

Tuesday, November 3
856K N. Illinois Toledo 8:00 PM ESPN2
As is would have been the 5th highest rated weeknight conference game for the AAC...and 3rd highest on ESPN2.

Friday, November 6
1.080M Temple SMU 7:55 PM ESPN2

Tuesday, November 10
561K Toledo C. Mich. 8:00 PM ESPN2

Wednesday, November 11
191K N. Illinois Buffalo 8:00 PM ESPNU
Better ratings than all 3 AAC weeknight games on ESPNU

Tuesday, November 17
527K Toledo BGSU 6:00 PM ESPN2

Wednesday, November 18
630K W. Mich. N. Illinois 8:00 PM ESPN2
Better ratings than 2/8 AAC games on ESPN/2 and within 8% of the next 2 AAC games.

Thursday, November 19
669K ECU UCF 7:26 PM ESPN

Friday, November 27
147K Tulsa Tulane 8:16 PM ESPNU

Tuesday, November 24
400K Ohio N. Illinois 7:34 PM ESPNU
Best ratings on ESPNU that I have ever seen for a G5vG5 matchup.
Not only does this game have higher ratings than every other AAC matchup on ESPNU and is better than one AAC game each on ESPN and ESPN2.

Thursday, November 26 (Thanksgiving)
388K USF UCF 7:27 PM ESPN


TV is where NIU brings their value (and football) and TV is where the AAC will need to replenish of they are raided. It's a no brainer to me
Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

(07-28-2016 08:49 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  I highly doubt it. C-USA has too many schools as it is. They could lose 4 or even 6 and still survive. There are still several FCS schools that would like to move up, and I don't see the AAC going past 10 if they drop to or below 10.

JMU might get their ticket to move up this way.

(07-28-2016 01:36 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  I see AAC expansion canadiates as these teams:
Rice
Massachusetts
Old Dominion
Charlotte
Southern Miss

Its a reasonable list, though not necessarily in that order. I'd put UMass last.

(07-28-2016 12:40 PM)orangefan Wrote:  No. If the Big 12 expands by 4 and takes 3 from the AAC and MWC, the max CUSA could lose is 3 schools. They are already at 14 and could return to 12 with an addition of one school. These could easily be grabbed from among the SBC or independents UMass and NM St.

Keep in mind that CUSA, like the other G5 schools, is guaranteed $1 million per school from the CFP, with additional payouts based upon the relative finish of the conference among the G5 conferences and for appearances in an access bowl or the CFP. However, the $1 million per school is for a maximum of 12 schools. After that, the pot is fixed. There is therefore a financial disincentive for any conference to go beyond 12 schools. Losing 2 schools might actually be good for CUSA.

That might be one reason the AAC doesnt look CUSAs direction. By taking 2 schools..Rice, VCU you actually make them stronger dropping them down to 12.

Conversely, if you take NIU, Toledo and Ohio that hammers the MAC and at a minimum keeps you on pace with the MWC on the TV front.

(07-28-2016 04:36 PM)Artifice Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:36 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  I see AAC expansion canadiates as these teams:
Rice
Massachusetts
Old Dominion
Charlotte
Southern Miss

Its a reasonable list, though not necessarily in that order. I'd put UMass last.

I can see Ohio U getting some consideration for the AAC.

(07-28-2016 04:36 PM)Artifice Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:36 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  I see AAC expansion canadiates as these teams:
Rice
Massachusetts
Old Dominion
Charlotte
Southern Miss

Its a reasonable list, though not necessarily in that order. I'd put UMass last.

UMAss is getting a higher priority in case UConn do not get picked. They would be the travel partner for The Huskies. UConn is pushing for them.

(07-28-2016 06:08 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 04:36 PM)Artifice Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:36 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  I see AAC expansion canadiates as these teams:
Rice
Massachusetts
Old Dominion
Charlotte
Southern Miss

Its a reasonable list, though not necessarily in that order. I'd put UMass last.

UMAss is getting a higher priority in case UConn do not get picked. They would be the travel partner for The Huskies. UConn is pushing for them.

Where have you heard this? Are you talking to people while you are on the toilet again?

why would the MWC or AAC be in a hurry to add CUSA teams with the exception of a few

there VERY LOW value is already known and that is VERY LOW

most of the teams make no sense for the conferences in question even if "carving up" the CUSA

large conferences suck and they suck even more at the G5 level

there is no need for more than 8 teams or 10 at the most even if you want a CCG

you gain CONFERENCE STRENGTH not by adding the largest amount of terrible teams from another conference that you always wanted to distance from, but instead by keeping your conference smaller and having as many teams (as few really) as possible that all have very common goals and abilities.....then you gain CONFERENCE STRENGTH by sending your conference mates out as often as possible to beat the hell out of those teams in other conferences that you wish to distance from and then you bring that back to YOUR CONFERENCE where you fight to be the top team in a really good conference

this as opposed to adding a bunch of really dissimilar programs with dramatically different goals and beating up each other as often as possible and then pretending that people are not going to take notice of the 9 teams in your conference with 4 or 5 wins or less each

American Athletic Football Conference

East (10 schools)

Connecticut
Army* (football only)
Temple
Navy* (football only)
East Carolina
UCF
South Florida
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa

West (11 schools)

New Mexico
San Diego State
Fresno State
San Jose State
UNLV
Nevada
Utah State
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming
Boise State

** The conference has a scheduling agreement with Hawaii.

21/22 school league, with the CFP payout capped at (much) fewer members than that? And if its done to preserve TV $, perhaps you might get the same total payout, but it will feed twice as many mouths. Net cut to each school anyway.

I do not see the sense in such a far flung league. Much more logical to have two leagues.

Also, while Army is attractive to AAC fans, they already tried conference affiliation once. I do not see them trying it again. Much more likely the AAC stays at 9 or backfills.

(07-29-2016 02:24 PM)Artifice Wrote:  21/22 school league, with the CFP payout capped at (much) fewer members than that? And if its done to preserve TV $, perhaps you might get the same total payout, but it will feed twice as many mouths. Net cut to each school anyway.

I do not see the sense in such a far flung league. Much more logical to have two leagues.

Also, while Army is attractive to AAC fans, they already tried conference affiliation once. I do not see them trying it again. Much more likely the AAC stays at 9 or backfills.

The challenge is access to the playoffs.

Who said the west coast teams need to play the east coast teams during the regular season? They would need to meet for a championship game.

(07-28-2016 10:09 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Best of the rest for AAC to look at.
C-USA
Southern Mississippi football
Western Kentucky football, basketball
Middle Tennessee State football
UAB basketball
Old Dominion basketball, football could get better.
La. Tech football
UTEP basketball

MAC:
Ohio U. basketball/football
Toledo football
Bowling Green football
Northern Illinois football
Buffalo basketball

Sun Belt:
Arkansas State football
Appalachian State football
Georgia Southern football
South Alabama football
La.-Lafayette football

Independent:
UMass. basketball, football is getting better.
New Mexico State basketball


FCS (some schools have better facilities than some FBS)
Montana football
Montana State football
Portland State football
Northern Colorado basketball
Eastern Washington football

Liberty baseball, football

Delaware (they need a change of scenery to get better football recruits)
James Madison football
Stony Brook football, basketball and baseball on the rise
New Hampshire football
Towson football

North Dakota State football, basketball and several olympics sports.
South Dakota State football, basketball
Illinois State football
Indiana State football
Northern Iowa football
Wichita State if they add football, basketball
Youngstown State football

Jacksonville State football
Tennessee State football
Eastern Kentucky football

Fordham football, have upset FBS schools in recent years.

Dayton football and basketball if they decide to give scholarships for football, and get into a better conference.

Chattanooga football
Furman football

Sam Houston State football
Lamar football, baseball
Central Arkansas football
McNeese State football
SFA basketball

Alabama State football
Jackson State football

Florida A&M football

Just a couple of D2 schools as a good measure.
North Alabama football
Azusa Pacific football
West Texas A&M football.

Go to the FCS boards to study what D2 move ups are possible! Hint Arkansas Tech.

(07-28-2016 12:40 PM)orangefan Wrote:  No. If the Big 12 expands by 4 and takes 3 from the AAC and MWC, the max CUSA could lose is 3 schools. They are already at 14 and could return to 12 with an addition of one school. These could easily be grabbed from among the SBC or independents UMass and NM St.

Keep in mind that CUSA, like the other G5 schools, is guaranteed $1 million per school from the CFP, with additional payouts based upon the relative finish of the conference among the G5 conferences and for appearances in an access bowl or the CFP. However, the $1 million per school is for a maximum of 12 schools. After that, the pot is fixed. There is therefore a financial disincentive for any conference to go beyond 12 schools. Losing 2 schools might actually be good for CUSA.

No Sun Belt would make the lateral move that would take the school 10+ years to recoop the expense of switching. MAC schools won't move either to CUSA.

(07-29-2016 02:02 PM)chess Wrote:  American Athletic Football Conference

East (10 schools)

Connecticut
Army* (football only)
Temple
Navy* (football only)
East Carolina
UCF
South Florida
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa

West (11 schools)

New Mexico
San Diego State
Fresno State
San Jose State
UNLV
Nevada
Utah State
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming
Boise State

** The conference has a scheduling agreement with Hawaii.

This is a monstrosity. I get that people want an automatic locked in BCS bowl berth, but why not just merge the Pac 12 and B1G, or Pac and Big 12 while we are at it? Just keep it as two separate leagues and backfill. Who the hell wants a 21-24 team conference where you may play 1-2 teams from the other division if that?

(07-28-2016 06:08 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 04:36 PM)Artifice Wrote:  

(07-28-2016 01:36 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  I see AAC expansion canadiates as these teams:
Rice
Massachusetts
Old Dominion
Charlotte
Southern Miss

Its a reasonable list, though not necessarily in that order. I'd put UMass last.

UMAss is getting a higher priority in case UConn do not get picked. They would be the travel partner for The Huskies. UConn is pushing for them.

Says who?

CUSA isn't going anywhere. They might not be able to add anyone but an FCS if they need to fill simply because I don't see any SBC teams moving outside of maybe Texas State, but I don't see any way the MWC goes to 14. I think that's just talk right now.

(07-29-2016 03:50 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-29-2016 02:02 PM)chess Wrote:  American Athletic Football Conference

East (10 schools)

Connecticut
Army* (football only)
Temple
Navy* (football only)
East Carolina
UCF
South Florida
Tulane
SMU
Tulsa

West (11 schools)

New Mexico
San Diego State
Fresno State
San Jose State
UNLV
Nevada
Utah State
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming
Boise State

** The conference has a scheduling agreement with Hawaii.

This is a monstrosity. I get that people want an automatic locked in BCS bowl berth, but why not just merge the Pac 12 and B1G, or Pac and Big 12 while we are at it? Just keep it as two separate leagues and backfill. Who the hell wants a 21-24 team conference where you may play 1-2 teams from the other division if that?

The Pac 12 may be absorbed into the Big Ten. Are you following the news of the Pac 12 Network?