http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/07/...-show.html

What do I get for guessing it was a Rasmussen poll before clicking the link?

Literally the only poll suggesting that.

(07-14-2016 11:22 AM)Coopdaddy67 Wrote:  What do I get for guessing it was a Rasmussen poll before clicking the link?

Literally the only poll suggesting that.

Most every other reputable poll has moved from a Clinton lead to a tie. Rasmussen showed a near tie when everyone else showed a Clinton lead. Therefore, Rasmussen may be an outlier, or may be ahead of the curve since their polling data is from the last two days and all polls are trending to Rasmussen.

National polls don't matter...even on November 8th they don't matter.

(07-14-2016 11:32 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  National polls don't matter...even on November 8th they don't matter.

The poll itself doesnt matter. The trends do. And Hillary is trending badly.

I've got Hillary by 3.1 points...that said, I'd be more interested to see those numbers after the conventions, and after VPs have been picked.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/..._race.html

(07-14-2016 11:37 AM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I've got Hillary by 3.1 points...that said, I'd be more interested to see those numbers after the conventions, and after VPs have been picked.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/..._race.html

Yep. IMO those will be the first meaningful polls, and even then they don't mean that much.

(07-14-2016 11:37 AM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I've got Hillary by 3.1 points...that said, I'd be more interested to see those numbers after the conventions, and after VPs have been picked.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/..._race.html

Most of those polls were performed prior to the FBI showing proof that Hillary was a criminal and a liar. The averge of polls after that show Trump up +2.

(07-14-2016 11:33 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 11:32 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  National polls don't matter...even on November 8th they don't matter.

The poll itself doesnt matter. The trends do. And Hillary is trending badly.

But that was to be expected after the FBI report. And Trump will get a further bump after the convention next week. But after the Dem convention, things should then stabilize.

But still...a national trend is relatively meaningless if there's no movement in the swing states that Trump has to win.

(07-14-2016 11:40 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 11:37 AM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I've got Hillary by 3.1 points...that said, I'd be more interested to see those numbers after the conventions, and after VPs have been picked.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/..._race.html

Most of those polls were performed prior to the FBI showing proof that Hillary was a criminal and a liar. The averge of polls after that show Trump up +2.

I want an average of all the major polls...not just the pro trump ones, thanks...I've used RCP since 2004, and I don't plan to stop now.

(07-14-2016 11:40 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 11:37 AM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I've got Hillary by 3.1 points...that said, I'd be more interested to see those numbers after the conventions, and after VPs have been picked.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/..._race.html

Most of those polls were performed prior to the FBI showing proof that Hillary was a criminal and a liar. The averge of polls after that show Trump up +2.

Do you really think people who already thought Hillary should be the POTUS before that would actually consider if she is going to be indited as pertinent?

(07-14-2016 11:43 AM)UofMemphis Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 11:40 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 11:37 AM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I've got Hillary by 3.1 points...that said, I'd be more interested to see those numbers after the conventions, and after VPs have been picked.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/..._race.html

Most of those polls were performed prior to the FBI showing proof that Hillary was a criminal and a liar. The averge of polls after that show Trump up +2.

I want an average of all the major polls...not just the pro trump ones, thanks...I've used RCP since 2004, and I don't plan to stop now.

I was pointing to the RCP polls.

Your "data" incudes polling from a month ago.

Condense it down to post FBI, and you can see the difference.

These things really don't mean much until after labor day when the real barrage of Ad's & Phone calls start popping. That's when half of America wakes up and realizes Summer Fun is over , kids are in school, water cooler talks are more abundant and local news is all about Politics, weather and Sports.

(07-14-2016 11:44 AM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 11:40 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 11:37 AM)UofMemphis Wrote:  I've got Hillary by 3.1 points...that said, I'd be more interested to see those numbers after the conventions, and after VPs have been picked.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/..._race.html

Most of those polls were performed prior to the FBI showing proof that Hillary was a criminal and a liar. The averge of polls after that show Trump up +2.

Do you really think people who already thought Hillary should be the POTUS before that would actually consider if she is going to be indited as pertinent?

There's people in the middle who had not heard much about this, because they dont get their news from a trusted source who's been following it, who were floored to discover that Hillary lied.

The people who were voting for her regardless, it wouldnt matter.

For the true indi's, it matters. And as inconceivable as it seems, there is a chunk of them who had no clue as to what she really did. I think the Lynch meeting with Clinton set it up nicely for them to take notice.

Last week was clearly Clinton's worst of the campaign and it is clearly reflected in the polls.

(07-14-2016 12:01 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Last week was clearly Clinton's worst of the campaign and it is clearly reflected in the polls.

It would have been better for Hillary if she would have been indicted. Insane to think that way? Perhaps. But think about how this appears to virtually everyone in the country - that Hillary is above the law. Add in the BC meeting with the AG prior to the FBI decision to not recommend indictment... This can be hammed thru ads from now thru election day.

At least for the Dems, if Clinton gets indicted, they could have had a fresh start. Seriously, the Dems behind the scenes have to be white knuckling it right now. Same for the GOP leadership for that matter.

I find it refreshing to see these asses worried. Now if only the networks are willing to take that first step and give the Libertarian and Green parties access thru the debates...

(07-14-2016 12:01 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Last week was clearly Clinton's worst of the campaign and it is clearly reflected in the polls.

Last week was certainly going to negatively affect Hillary in the short term, but ultimately it may have been her most important week in the campaign.

(07-14-2016 12:30 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 12:01 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Last week was clearly Clinton's worst of the campaign and it is clearly reflected in the polls.

Last week was certainly going to negatively affect Hillary in the short term, but ultimately it may have been her most important week in the campaign.

We'll see. I doubt it though, because you have a case being built that reinforces the idea that she is dishonest, corrupt and above the law. Combine this with ties to Wall Street and her connection to the Clinton Library "slush fund", and the foreign contributions to said fund by the Saudi's...

(07-14-2016 12:30 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(07-14-2016 12:01 PM)dawgitall Wrote:  Last week was clearly Clinton's worst of the campaign and it is clearly reflected in the polls.

Last week was certainly going to negatively affect Hillary in the short term, but ultimately it may have been her most important week in the campaign.

For her, sure. For the dem party, they have no recourse if this continues to blow up after the convention.