(03-31-2016 12:39 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(03-31-2016 12:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-31-2016 12:03 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(03-31-2016 11:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  from the where have we heard this before file:
After learning he won't be the team's closer, Drew Storen gave up two runs in his inning of work Wednesday against the Twins.

I just don't know what to think about him. He seems like such a baby

he has been. I'm SO glad he's gone from the Nats.

addition by subtraction?

definitely.
for his career...
his era in save situations is 2.29
his era in non-save situations is 3.84

if he doesn't get to do what he likes, he's not good..

plus got Revere who gives the Nats great Depth in the OF- huge for when Werth goes down.

(03-31-2016 12:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-31-2016 12:39 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(03-31-2016 12:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-31-2016 12:03 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(03-31-2016 11:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  from the where have we heard this before file:
After learning he won't be the team's closer, Drew Storen gave up two runs in his inning of work Wednesday against the Twins.

I just don't know what to think about him. He seems like such a baby

he has been. I'm SO glad he's gone from the Nats.

addition by subtraction?

definitely.
for his career...
his era in save situations is 2.29
his era in non-save situations is 3.84

if he doesn't get to do what he likes, he's not good..

plus got Revere who gives the Nats great Depth in the OF- huge for when Werth goes down.

good point. Depth is extremely important, especially when that depth is in a position played by an injury prone player. And relief pitching is so fungible, that the loss (if it could even be called one) can easily be made up

As you may know Miguel Gonzalez was released by the Orioles yesterday. I had never taken the time to look at his numbers, but FG posted a column about him today, so I figured I'd take a look at his page. The column describes his 2015 season as "rough." Yet when I looked at his numbers, I noticed his 2015 WAR is almost identical to that of 2014 despite the 2015 ERA being about 1.7 runs higher (3.23 to 4.91). How can two drastically different ERAs produce almost identical wins above replacement? The answer is actually pretty simple. Each season's FIP and xFIP are, like WAR, almost identical. The reason for that stands out right away: his strand rate in 2014 was an insane 85.5%, while in 2015 it went down to a more normal 73.1%. You could argue that maybe he was just a better pitcher in 2014. I suppose that's possible, but his K rate actually went up last season, from 6.28 to 6.78 (per 9), which is a pretty decent jump for one season. To be fair, his BB rate went up as well, from 2.89 to 3.17 (per 9), which I'd say cancels about the K's. His HR/9 was almost identical too, only going from 1.42 to 1.49.

Anyway, I could dig into the batted ball data with runners on base, but I'm not sure it's necessary. If you go back to the beginning of his ML career you see that his strand rate has fluctuated wildly (82%, 73%, 85%, 73%). I think this is a pretty good example of the wild variation and low season to season correlation of LOB%.

maybe in FG his war was the same but BR it's 2.1 to 0.6....

a big difference is walks. he had the same number of walks despite 49 fewer batters..... And only 1 fewer homer...

1st 3 years, he pitched thru the FIP. Last year he didn't.

(04-01-2016 01:20 PM)stever20 Wrote:  maybe in FG his war was the same but BR it's 2.1 to 0.6....

a big difference is walks. he had the same number of walks despite 49 fewer batters..... And only 1 fewer homer...

1st 3 years, he pitched thru the FIP. Last year he didn't.

true, but his K-BB% actually improved from '14 to '15. Interestingly, while he gave up a few more HR, his flyball % actually dropped a pretty decent amount (41.7% to 35.8%). And he allowed far fewer pulled balls in play. He did walk more and strike out fewer hitters with RISP. Hard to explain why that happened

I realize the BR WAR is a big difference, but that just shows why I'm not a fan of their WAR. His peripherals were pretty similar, as was his velocity (before going on the DL). He was essentially the same pitcher, so his WAR really shouldn't be 1.5 apart.

The thing is if a pitcher does pitch around it like he did for the first 3 years- a guy with a mid 3 ERA is worth more than a pitcher with a 5 ERA. Maybe it shouldn't have happened, but the fact is, it did happen. 1st 3 years- his ERA was 3.49, despite a FIP of 4.59.

I have no problem with using FIP to predict what is going to happen in the future. But it's a lousy way of saying what did actually happen. The fact is his 1st 3 years, he was a 3.50 ERA pitcher, not a 4.60 ERA pitcher. That's reality. With WAR, results are what matters, not what should have happened.

(04-01-2016 02:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is if a pitcher does pitch around it like he did for the first 3 years- a guy with a mid 3 ERA is worth more than a pitcher with a 5 ERA. Maybe it shouldn't have happened, but the fact is, it did happen. 1st 3 years- his ERA was 3.49, despite a FIP of 4.59.

I have no problem with using FIP to predict what is going to happen in the future. But it's a lousy way of saying what did actually happen. The fact is his 1st 3 years, he was a 3.50 ERA pitcher, not a 4.60 ERA pitcher. That's reality. With WAR, results are what matters, not what should have happened.

I understand all that, but before going on the DL Miguel Gonzalez was the same pitcher he had been in the 3 previous seasons. His performance was almost exactly the same. The results were different, but his personal performance was not. Regardless, that really wasn't my point. I was just trying to point out how wildly LOB% can fluctuate from season to season, even when someone is no different as a pitcher

whoa huge news out of Arizona, with major implications for the NL West. AJ Pollock fractured his right elbow and will require surgery. He was a legitimate top 10-15 player in baseball last year. You're talking about losing an MVP caliber player for what I have to imagine is around 2 months.

Turned on the Nats-Twins game in the 3rd. Man, Joe Ross throws a ton of cutters/sliders for a guy who throws 92-95. Maybe it's just a one time thing, but if I was a Nats fan I'd be screaming at him to throw more fastballs. I've barely seen him throw any. Nats fans, do you guys feel that way about him?

And now he gives up a 3 run HR to Mauer on a hanging slider. It was 82 MPH, so it must've been something like a slider. I wish I had charted the pitchers cuz he's barely thrown any fastballs.

and another hanger leads to a line drive single. Throw your fastball! God, it drives me crazy when a guy with a good fastball throws so many offspeed pitches.

And another offspeed pitch leads to an RBI double up the gap in LCF

You're getting a little worked up? I mean, this is his last chance to work on stuff where the results don't matter...

(04-02-2016 12:29 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  You're getting a little worked up? I mean, this is his last chance to work on stuff where the results don't matter...

huge pet peeve of mine. Pitch Trax showed that he threw 53% offspeed.

wouldn't usually turn on a random Nats Twins game, but this has actually been kinda fun. With 1st and 3rd, 1 out, a Twins lefty (i think danny santana) performs a gorgeous drag bunt. He was safe at 1st, but Zimmerman charged the crap out of the ball and was able to hold the runner at third. Bases are loaded, but that was a really nice play to make sure the runner didn't score. Earlier in the inning Ross K'd Sano on a nasty slider.

FP Santangelo just made a really good point about how if Ross wants to have a career as a SP who can get through a lineup 3 times, he needs to develop a reliable 3rd pitch. He added that you can't get hitters multiple times through the order if you're just throwing a fastball and slider and that "at the very least it gives me something else to think about." I'm a little surprised at this, as I've never heard FP do anything but lick the Nats players' balls, much less criticize one of them.

It seems to me that Ross has a 2 seam and 4 seam fastball, so I don't know if FP counts those as one pitch.

last year he threw 57.2% Fastballs(93.4 mph), 35.6% sliders(83.8 mph), and 7.1% changeups(87.3 mph)

so 53% may be a bit high in a game, but considering last year he was at 43% isn't that much of a difference from what he did normally.

(04-02-2016 01:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  last year he threw 57.2% Fastballs(93.4 mph), 35.6% sliders(83.8 mph), and 7.1% changeups(87.3 mph)

so 53% may be a bit high in a game, but considering last year he was at 43% isn't that much of a difference from what he did normally.

I'd say that would make for a pretty significant difference

The difference between 53% and 43% today(when he threw 95 pitches)-
53% 50 pitches off speed
43% 41 pitches off speed

so a difference- but not a huge one. And I would say as well- if it was regular season then sure- it would be a big question- but preseason tough to say much....

(04-02-2016 09:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The difference between 53% and 43% today(when he threw 95 pitches)-
53% 50 pitches off speed
43% 41 pitches off speed

so a difference- but not a huge one. And I would say as well- if it was regular season then sure- it would be a big question- but preseason tough to say much....

I actually think that's a pretty decent difference over the course of a game. But I do agree that it's meaningless right now. I was just sharing my pet peeve of guys with good fastballs who throw too many offspeed pitches. I feel like if you keep going to that well, it's going to increase the likelihood that you'll hang one and there's no more hittable pitch than a hanging breaking ball

I'm just glad all the preseason stuff is done and it's finally game day..... 12 1/2 hours until Francisco Liriano throws the first pitch vs the Cards.

Francisco Liriano, MLB RBI leader.

Gotta love the Pirates. Nobody wants Freese, so they sign him off the scrap heap for a few million and on opening day, against a RHP, he's batting third. It's amazing that the Angels, with their awful lineup, simply couldn't find a spot for him at $3 million. Poorly run teams, are poorly run for a reason