(12-27-2015 01:16 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 11:38 AM)Dukester Wrote:  CAA is def better this year than recent years, but even if the season were to end today under any measure we'd be a one team conference no matter who won the tournament. Sags have one top 100 team.

CofC RPI 48 or W&M 52 would not get an at-large. This is only a part of the equation - everything else is less favorable. The top teams are a better then recent top CAA teams, and the bottom level teams are much better than the past bottom level teams of the past. We could get a 13 seed if the season were to end today.

But this is nothing like the GMU, VCU, ODU good years.

CAA is currently no. 8 conference...don't recall it being that high even in year with 3 NCAA bids. It certainly wasn't better than that in rating total conference RPI. After last year's showing that's real progress, tremendous in fact.

Here's the difference, the year we had two or three bids we had teams in the top 25 and others getting votes. We also had multiple teams in the Sag top 40. We have one team in the Sag top 100 at this time. Everyone says they don't understand how we are #8. Well - either does anyone else. As you said a #33 RPI Hofstra did not make it. As someone said Matt Brady said there would not be multiple bids out of the CAA this year. The only way the CAA would get multiple bids would be for a team to go 16-2 in conference and lose in the CAA Semi's or Final. It's going to be hard win 16 or even 15 games in the CAA with so few bad teams and so much parity.

Our highest ranked team - W&M (RPI - #51, & Sag - #90) has losses against High Point and Hampton. Those are baaaadddd loses even with the one impressive win at NC State. If NC State improves that could be a ncaa caliber quality win. I don't think it's very likely a team wins 15 in the CAA this year, which I think is the minimum it will take.

(12-27-2015 08:39 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-27-2015 01:16 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 11:38 AM)Dukester Wrote:  CAA is def better this year than recent years, but even if the season were to end today under any measure we'd be a one team conference no matter who won the tournament. Sags have one top 100 team.

CofC RPI 48 or W&M 52 would not get an at-large. This is only a part of the equation - everything else is less favorable. The top teams are a better then recent top CAA teams, and the bottom level teams are much better than the past bottom level teams of the past. We could get a 13 seed if the season were to end today.

But this is nothing like the GMU, VCU, ODU good years.

CAA is currently no. 8 conference...don't recall it being that high even in year with 3 NCAA bids. It certainly wasn't better than that in rating total conference RPI. After last year's showing that's real progress, tremendous in fact.

Here's the difference, the year we had two or three bids we had teams in the top 25 and others getting votes. We also had multiple teams in the Sag top 40. We have one team in the Sag top 100 at this time. Everyone says they don't understand how we are #8. Well - either does anyone else. As you said a #33 RPI Hofstra did not make it. As someone said Matt Brady said there would not be multiple bids out of the CAA this year. The only way the CAA would get multiple bids would be for a team to go 16-2 in conference and lose in the CAA Semi's or Final. It's going to be hard win 16 or even 15 games in the CAA with so few bad teams and so much parity.

Our highest ranked team - W&M (RPI - #51, & Sag - #90) has losses against High Point and Hampton. Those are baaaadddd loses even with the one impressive win at NC State. If NC State improves that could be a ncaa caliber quality win. I don't think it's very likely a team wins 15 in the CAA this year, which I think is the minimum it will take.

Charleston has an RPI of 46. CAA has 5 teams in the top 100. If 2-3 of those top 100 teams continue winning, their RPI will continue to rise especially since there aren't a lot of CAA teams that would be "bad losses" this year. As Dukes84 pointed out, the CAA is currently 8/31 conferences. Multiple bids is far from a sure thing but is also far from being impossible this year.

If the top ranked teams keep winning, it is entirely possible to have multiple bids.

We also better hope teams like NC State, Richmond, Fla St get in or continue to stay in the NCAA discussion to keep our good wins still looking like good wins come March.

This is just as imperative as reaching 15 CAA wins which I agree with others will be almost impossible to get to this year. Parity this is year is like last year where 12 wins tied for the title. I see 13 maybe 14 wins getting the top spot and most likely a tie breaker will determine the #1 seed in Baltimore.

Dukes already have a big first game at home this week against Charleston to maintain RPI and show we mean business this year for the CAA regular season title.

The Tribe beat High Point, who is a good team.

(12-27-2015 11:22 AM)Dukesfan71 Wrote:  The Tribe beat High Point, who is a good team.

Correct, the other loss was to a very good UVA. Howard is a bad loss (not Hampton, but irrelevant). Other points remain valid.

(12-27-2015 08:39 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-27-2015 01:16 AM)Dukes84 Wrote:  

(12-26-2015 11:38 AM)Dukester Wrote:  CAA is def better this year than recent years, but even if the season were to end today under any measure we'd be a one team conference no matter who won the tournament. Sags have one top 100 team.

CofC RPI 48 or W&M 52 would not get an at-large. This is only a part of the equation - everything else is less favorable. The top teams are a better then recent top CAA teams, and the bottom level teams are much better than the past bottom level teams of the past. We could get a 13 seed if the season were to end today.

But this is nothing like the GMU, VCU, ODU good years.

CAA is currently no. 8 conference...don't recall it being that high even in year with 3 NCAA bids. It certainly wasn't better than that in rating total conference RPI. After last year's showing that's real progress, tremendous in fact.

Here's the difference, the year we had two or three bids we had teams in the top 25 and others getting votes. We also had multiple teams in the Sag top 40. We have one team in the Sag top 100 at this time. Everyone says they don't understand how we are #8. Well - either does anyone else. As you said a #33 RPI Hofstra did not make it. As someone said Matt Brady said there would not be multiple bids out of the CAA this year. The only way the CAA would get multiple bids would be for a team to go 16-2 in conference and lose in the CAA Semi's or Final. It's going to be hard win 16 or even 15 games in the CAA with so few bad teams and so much parity.

Our highest ranked team - W&M (RPI - #51, & Sag - #90) has losses against High Point and Hampton. Those are baaaadddd loses even with the one impressive win at NC State. If NC State improves that could be a ncaa caliber quality win. I don't think it's very likely a team wins 15 in the CAA this year, which I think is the minimum it will take.

I don't think the CAA in 2010-11 had teams ranked in the top 25 until later in the conference season or post season (JMU actually was receiving votes after their winning streak when they were 15-3 that year).

There are some similarities in this years OOC success and 2010-11 although it's obviously a real long shot that they get multiple teams in this year.

In hindsight there really weren't any bad losses OOC by the top teams that season. The other advantage that they had was the bracket buster games late in the year- The CAA fared well in those games (VCU over Wichita, GMU over Northern Iowa). It's a shame they ended that a few years back.

Mason (bad OOC loss- Wofford, good OOC win- Northern Iowa)
ODU (bad OOC loss None- good OOC wins- Clemson, Xavier, Richmond, Dayton)
VCU (bad OOC loss- None- good OOC wins- Wake Forest, UCLA, Wichita State).

Here were the conference records in 2010-2011- Mason won with a 16-2 record, ODU and Hofstra both had 14-4 records, VCU was 12-6, Drexel 11-7, JMU 10-8. They had 6 of 12 teams at the time with over 20 wins after conference play.

A few additional notes:

Hofstra didn't play a good OOC schedule that year so they took VCU who had a better profile and made the CAA championship game vs. ODU.

VCU wasn't that dominant in conference that year including losses to a pre RJ Hunter Georgia State team and JMU at home to end the year (JMU and VCU actually entered the CAA tourney with the same record believe it or not).

I think folks may forget how good ODU was that year- they lost in the last seconds of the first round to Butler- the same Butler team that made the NCAA championship game and lost to Duke in a close game.