(11-02-2015 02:31 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Even though it's not what I predicted, they'll probably just have it be the same as the AP poll top four.

I just do not see them rewarding Baylor's crap schedule at this point.

Can there be 4 unbeaten teams in the CFP?

LSU
Ohio St
Clemson
Michigan St

Baylor and TCU at the 6-8 range.

What is the pecking order in terms of conference, or do you think it will come down to more of the individual team in question? I would say Big 12 is a clear cut #3 if not #2. I don't see Clemson placing ahead of the SEC/B1G/Big 12 just yet.

The problem with the Big 12 though is that their schedule is incredibly back loaded (most likely on purpose) and so far not one of the 4 teams still in contention for it has a single win vs a team in the current Top 25 and it gets even worse since it's very likely that OU and OSU will both be sitting at 9-3 and unranked at the end of November.

That means that in all likelihood, the winner of the B12 (most likely the winner of TCU vs BU) will be sitting with only one Top 25 win on their resume. Pair that with Baylor's 109th ranked SOS (if its them) and its another year of the B12 missing out on the playoffs so Stanford or ND can have that slot.

TCU is pretty much the B12's only hope and the Frogs still have to run the table vs @OSU, @OU and Baylor which is a tall order to say the least.

(11-02-2015 03:15 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  What is the pecking order in terms of conference, or do you think it will come down to more of the individual team in question? I would say Big 12 is a clear cut #3 if not #2. I don't see Clemson placing ahead of the SEC/B1G/Big 12 just yet.

If you believe them, conference doesn't matter. Only teams.

Clemson has the type of resume they responded to very favorably last year- one of the best wins, controlled their games, etc. I'll be very surprised if they aren't 1 or 2.

LSU
Clemson
Ohio St
Mich St

(11-02-2015 03:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The problem with the Big 12 though is that their schedule is incredibly back loaded (most likely on purpose) and so far not one of the 4 teams still in contention for it has a single win vs a team in the current Top 25 and it gets even worse since it's very likely that OU and OSU will both be sitting at 9-3 and unranked at the end of November.

That means that in all likelihood, the winner of the B12 (most likely the winner of TCU vs BU) will be sitting with only one Top 25 win on their resume. Pair that with Baylor's 109th ranked SOS and its another year of the B12 missing out on the playoffs so Stanford or ND can have that slot.

TCU is pretty much the B12's only hope and the Frogs still have to run the table vs @OSU, @OU and Baylor which is a tall order to say the least.

9-3 is likely ranked, FWIW. Probably in the second 10. Here is last year's final rankings:

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/vi...gs#week-16

Every 9-3 P5 team was ranked last year, ranging from #9 to #21. Ole Miss was 9 and Louisville 21, including the Big 12's KSU at 11 (who had two late losses to TCU and Baylor).

(11-02-2015 03:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The problem with the Big 12 though is that their schedule is incredibly back loaded (most likely on purpose) and so far not one of the 4 teams still in contention for it has a single win vs a team in the current Top 25 and it gets even worse since it's very likely that OU and OSU will both be sitting at 9-3 and unranked at the end of November.

That means that in all likelihood, the winner of the B12 (most likely the winner of TCU vs BU) will be sitting with only one Top 25 win on their resume. Pair that with Baylor's 109th ranked SOS is its them and its another year of the B12 missing out on the playoffs so Stanford or ND can have that slot.

TCU is pretty much the B12's only hope and the Frogs still have to run the table vs @OSU, @OU and Baylor which is a tall order to say the least.

Now I disagree. If Baylor is 12-0, they will be in over Stanford or Notre Dame. Part of it is they will have a better win in TCU than anything that Stanford or Notre Dame would have. Also, especially if the team that wins is Stanford- that loss to Northwestern is looking worse and worse as we go along.

Also, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St at 9-3 will be ranked guaranteed. Right now, there's only 34 P5 teams with 3 or fewer losses- with of those 34- 7 of them with 3 losses. So they would have 3 ranked wins. Baylor's SOS is 109 right now- but it won't be that end of the season.

(11-02-2015 02:35 PM)Otacon Wrote:  Can there be 4 unbeaten teams in the CFP?

Yes, at least in theory.
ACC - Clemson
Big Ten - Any one of Ohio State, Michigan State, or Iowa (but only one)
Big XII - Any one of Baylor, TCU, or Oklahoma State (but only one)
SEC - LSU

If any of those conferences fail to produce an undefeated champ, there are two G5 possibilities:
ACC - Either Memphis or Houston
MAC - Toledo

The Pac-12 doesn't have any undefeated teams left, nor do any of the other 3 G5 conferences.

The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

If the Big 12 champ is 11-1, with the only exception maybe being Oklahoma- they are out. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St just have too bad of an OOC schedule to have any shot of getting in at 11-1. Oklahoma has a shot- but wouldn't say it's a great shot.

(11-02-2015 03:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

If the Big 12 champ is 11-1, with the only exception maybe being Oklahoma- they are out. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St just have too bad of an OOC schedule to have any shot of getting in at 11-1. Oklahoma has a shot- but wouldn't say it's a great shot.

Obviously it depends on what everyone else is doing- if it is a year like last year with no CCG upsets, you may be right. But the resume of any 11-1 Big 12 champ would be very strong. Take the #4 scenario above and call it TCU, Baylor, OU and OSU. TCU and Baylor would be 11-1, OU 10-2. All would be top 10 for sure, meaning all will have a top 10 win and a top 10 loss, plus another top 20 win in OSU. If there are slip ups in the CCG, I'd be surprised if the 11-1 Big 12 champ isn't first in line.

(11-02-2015 03:30 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The problem with the Big 12 though is that their schedule is incredibly back loaded (most likely on purpose) and so far not one of the 4 teams still in contention for it has a single win vs a team in the current Top 25 and it gets even worse since it's very likely that OU and OSU will both be sitting at 9-3 and unranked at the end of November.

That means that in all likelihood, the winner of the B12 (most likely the winner of TCU vs BU) will be sitting with only one Top 25 win on their resume. Pair that with Baylor's 109th ranked SOS and its another year of the B12 missing out on the playoffs so Stanford or ND can have that slot.

TCU is pretty much the B12's only hope and the Frogs still have to run the table vs @OSU, @OU and Baylor which is a tall order to say the least.

9-3 is likely ranked, FWIW. Probably in the second 10. Here is last year's final rankings:

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/vi...gs#week-16

Every 9-3 P5 team was ranked last year, ranging from #9 to #21. Ole Miss was 9 and Louisville 21, including the Big 12's KSU at 11 (who had two late losses to TCU and Baylor).

There can still be up to 6 undefeated teams and a ton of 1-loss and 2-loss teams this year. 9-3 OSU or OKlahoma will not easily rank ahead of undefeated teams or any 1 or 2 loss P5 teams. There could be as many as 18 or 19 teams in that group this year.

It could come down to whether 9-3 OSU or 9-3 Oklahoma can stay ranked ahead of 13-0 Toledo, 11-1 Houston, 12-1 Marshall, 11-1 App St., and a bunch of other 3-loss teams like Michigan, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, UCLA, Northwestern, Duke, Temple.

(11-02-2015 04:06 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:48 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The Big 12 has 6 games between TCU/Baylor/OSU/OU. The only possible outcomes are

1. 3-0, 2-1, 1-2, 0-3
2. 3-0, 1-2, 1-2, 1-2
3. 2-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-2
4. 2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 0-3

That's it. There are no other possibilities. Assuming no other upsets (Oklahoma Ste getting upset by Iowa State probably only one with a chance to happening), there's a 50% chance one of the 4 goes undefeated and 50% chance there are 2-3 teams that go 2-1. Because OU has a loss, can't say there is a 50% chance of undefeated team, but I suspect if OU wins out they are in at 11-1 with 3 quality wins down the stretch. Again, assuming no other upsets, OU can't win the championship if they go 2-1 (because they will have 2 wins and some other team has to go 2-1 and would have one less loss, even if it is to OU), so the Big 12 champ will at worst be 11-1 with two late quality wins and a quality loss. That's going to be a strong resume no matter who it is.

If the Big 12 champ is 11-1, with the only exception maybe being Oklahoma- they are out. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma St just have too bad of an OOC schedule to have any shot of getting in at 11-1. Oklahoma has a shot- but wouldn't say it's a great shot.

Obviously it depends on what everyone else is doing- if it is a year like last year with no CCG upsets, you may be right. But the resume of any 11-1 Big 12 champ would be very strong. Take the #4 scenario above and call it TCU, Baylor, OU and OSU. TCU and Baylor would be 11-1, OU 10-2. All would be top 10 for sure, meaning all will have a top 10 win and a top 10 loss, plus another top 20 win in OSU. If there are slip ups in the CCG, I'd be surprised if the 11-1 Big 12 champ isn't first in line.

1/2- Big Ten Champ(Ohio St or Mich St vs Iowa) and SEC champ(Alabama or LSU vs Florida) both probably in easily over them- regardless of who wins.
3- Clemson in easily over them at 13-0
4- Stanford/Notre Dame winner in over them at 12-1 or 11-1

Also, if Notre Dame beats Stanford- and then Utah beats Stanford in the P12 title game- Utah would get in over them.

They would need a decent amount of luck quite frankly. Really only hope would be to have Clemson lose somewhere, and have Stanford beat both Notre Dame and Utah.

Slight correction on my post above. Here's what this week's simulated BCS rankings would look like, according to http://www.bcsknowhow.com/.



Last year, the final committee rankings were very close to the final simulated BCS rankings.

Projecting this out to the CFP games, if the higher-ranked team in these standings wins every remaining game, which almost certainly won't happen, but what the heck. (Projecting Memphis as the G5 representative.)

Orange Bowl: Ohio State (13-0) vs. TCU (12-0)
Cotton Bowl: Clemson (13-0) vs. LSU (13-0)
Peach Bowl: Memphis (13-0) vs. Alabama (11-2) [or Florida (11-2)]
Rose Bowl: Stanford (11-2) vs. Iowa (12-1) [or Michigan State (11-1)]
Sugar Bowl: Baylor (11-1) vs. Florida (11-2) [or Alabama (11-2)]
Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame (11-1) vs. Michigan State (11-1) [or Iowa (12-1)]

(11-02-2015 04:06 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Obviously it depends on what everyone else is doing- if it is a year like last year with no CCG upsets, you may be right. But the resume of any 11-1 Big 12 champ would be very strong. Take the #4 scenario above and call it TCU, Baylor, OU and OSU. TCU and Baylor would be 11-1, OU 10-2. All would be top 10 for sure, meaning all will have a top 10 win and a top 10 loss, plus another top 20 win in OSU. If there are slip ups in the CCG, I'd be surprised if the 11-1 Big 12 champ isn't first in line.

Clemson, LSU, and Ohio St. could still end up undefeated and, as such, would likely have the spots ahead of any 1-loss Big 12 champ.

So, could the 1-loss Big 12 champ shine more brightly than 1-loss PAC champ and/or 1-loss Notre Dame? Or undefeated Memphis (who would also have 2 or 3 top-25 wins down the stretch)? Or 1-loss Michigan St. or Iowa (only loss to the defending national champion)?

Strong resume for sure. But strong enough?

(11-02-2015 04:17 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 04:06 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Obviously it depends on what everyone else is doing- if it is a year like last year with no CCG upsets, you may be right. But the resume of any 11-1 Big 12 champ would be very strong. Take the #4 scenario above and call it TCU, Baylor, OU and OSU. TCU and Baylor would be 11-1, OU 10-2. All would be top 10 for sure, meaning all will have a top 10 win and a top 10 loss, plus another top 20 win in OSU. If there are slip ups in the CCG, I'd be surprised if the 11-1 Big 12 champ isn't first in line.

Clemson, LSU, and Ohio St. could still end up undefeated and, as such, would likely have the spots ahead of any 1-loss Big 12 champ.

So, could the 1-loss Big 12 champ shine more brightly than 1-loss PAC champ and/or 1-loss Notre Dame? Or undefeated Memphis (who would also have 2 or 3 top-25 wins down the stretch)? Or 1-loss Michigan St. or Iowa (only loss to the defending national champion)?

Strong resume for sure. But strong enough?

Not likely, because 12-1 beats 11-1.

(11-02-2015 04:10 PM)YNot Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:30 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The problem with the Big 12 though is that their schedule is incredibly back loaded (most likely on purpose) and so far not one of the 4 teams still in contention for it has a single win vs a team in the current Top 25 and it gets even worse since it's very likely that OU and OSU will both be sitting at 9-3 and unranked at the end of November.

That means that in all likelihood, the winner of the B12 (most likely the winner of TCU vs BU) will be sitting with only one Top 25 win on their resume. Pair that with Baylor's 109th ranked SOS and its another year of the B12 missing out on the playoffs so Stanford or ND can have that slot.

TCU is pretty much the B12's only hope and the Frogs still have to run the table vs @OSU, @OU and Baylor which is a tall order to say the least.

9-3 is likely ranked, FWIW. Probably in the second 10. Here is last year's final rankings:

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/vi...gs#week-16

Every 9-3 P5 team was ranked last year, ranging from #9 to #21. Ole Miss was 9 and Louisville 21, including the Big 12's KSU at 11 (who had two late losses to TCU and Baylor).

There can still be up to 6 undefeated teams and a ton of 1-loss and 2-loss teams this year. 9-3 OSU or OKlahoma will not easily rank ahead of undefeated teams or any 1 or 2 loss P5 teams. There could be as many as 18 or 19 teams in that group this year.

It could come down to whether 9-3 OSU or 9-3 Oklahoma can stay ranked ahead of 13-0 Toledo, 11-1 Houston, 12-1 Marshall, 11-1 App St., and a bunch of other 3-loss teams like Michigan, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, UCLA, Northwestern, Duke, Temple.

No. Right now there are only 34 P5 3 loss teams or better. Sorry but Marshall and App St won't be ranked even if they are 12-1 and 11-1.

0 loss teams- 11(8 p5)
1 loss teams- 12(8 p5)
2 loss teams- 15(10 p5)
3 loss teams- 17(7 p5)
so right now we only have 55 teams in all of FBS with 3 or fewer losses, with only 33 p5 teams.

(11-02-2015 03:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-02-2015 03:24 PM)10thMountain Wrote:  The problem with the Big 12 though is that their schedule is incredibly back loaded (most likely on purpose) and so far not one of the 4 teams still in contention for it has a single win vs a team in the current Top 25 and it gets even worse since it's very likely that OU and OSU will both be sitting at 9-3 and unranked at the end of November.

That means that in all likelihood, the winner of the B12 (most likely the winner of TCU vs BU) will be sitting with only one Top 25 win on their resume. Pair that with Baylor's 109th ranked SOS is its them and its another year of the B12 missing out on the playoffs so Stanford or ND can have that slot.

TCU is pretty much the B12's only hope and the Frogs still have to run the table vs @OSU, @OU and Baylor which is a tall order to say the least.

Now I disagree. If Baylor is 12-0, they will be in over Stanford or Notre Dame. Part of it is they will have a better win in TCU than anything that Stanford or Notre Dame would have. Also, especially if the team that wins is Stanford- that loss to Northwestern is looking worse and worse as we go along.

Also, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St at 9-3 will be ranked guaranteed. Right now, there's only 34 P5 teams with 3 or fewer losses- with of those 34- 7 of them with 3 losses. So they would have 3 ranked wins. Baylor's SOS is 109 right now- but it won't be that end of the season.

If NW holds off Penn St on Saturday at home, they'll likely be 8-2 heading into Madison, with wins over Stanford, Duke and Penn St, followed the next week with rivalry game vs Illinois at Soldier Field.

Obviously Stanford will be cheering for them to go 10-2.