(11-01-2015 01:23 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-01-2015 01:21 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-01-2015 01:17 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-01-2015 01:13 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Ha, Baylor.

Haven't played anyone. Crap SOS. That's what the committee will look at.

It's the eye test. Yes their competition hasn't been all that great but that is the most well rounded Baylor team that they have had in years.

People want to ding them for the QB issue but all Baylor has done over the past years is plug and play QB's and they do great.

Until we actually see a Baylor QB fail, they wont be dinged for it. We have had plenty of evidence of teams having backups that do pretty good. Ohio State? Notre Dame?

You have no idea what the committee looks at obviously. They told us plenty last year that the "Eye Test" is big for them. You have some catching up to do, as usual.

The committee is on record saying SOS, to date, is that they'll look at, for this first ranking.

The QB situation won't matter, for this ranking. They're on record saying that, too. They'll only be judged on what they've done so far.

Which is: beat nobody.

We will see Tuesday.

We will.


The funny thing is you and stever's battle of "message board reverse psychology". Him putting two B1G teams in his top four and you putting SEC and XII teams in your top four.

Because you both think, I guess, that if you can somehow will the enemy to be ranked high at the start, then those teams will fail down the stretch. Which is usually, but not always, what happens.

Nah, I put those teams up there because I think they deserve it at this point. People generally get me all wrong. I most offend "defend The Big Ten" because I am simply countering silly talking points. If their teams deserve to be in it, I will say they do. If they don't then I wont mention them. I think Ohio State is looking better now but I don't necessarily think they deserve the top spot by the CFP at this point. What I see in Baylor is impressive and that is my own personal eye test. I think LSU, to this point, definitely deserves to be there. The thing about Baylor and LSU is that they have some of their biggest tests coming up so that will prove out in the end but for now they deserve where they are.

I think Clemson deserves to be there as well with whom they have played. Where people put them in their top four doesn't really matter to me. I think those four teams deserve to be there the most right now. Where they get ranked matters less to me as that is a matter of opinion. Ohio State proved last year that what really matters is getting there. From that point on you are trying to prove you are the Champion, the best. It shouldn't matter what your route is in the top four if you are the best, you will prove it when you get there.

I'm not even going to guess. This is going to be a wild year.

For this week:

1) Clemson
2) LSU
3) Ohio State
4) Baylor

1. Clemson
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. TCU

5. Baylor
6. Ohio St

lol at TCU or Baylor being ahead of Ohio St. No way in hell that's happening. Sorry but the committee isn't going to reward the garbage schedule of Baylor or really even TCU's schedule- Minnesota hasn't been as good as expected.

(11-01-2015 10:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol at TCU or Baylor being ahead of Ohio St. No way in hell that's happening. Sorry but the committee isn't going to reward the garbage schedule of Baylor or really even TCU's schedule- Minnesota hasn't been as good as expected.

If the committee behaves like they did last year they will. Ohio State lags in both strength of record and game control, two of the things that seemed to explain a lot of the irregularities relative to the polls. Heck, Brad Edwards from ESPN thinks Michigan State will be ahead of Ohio State.

Here is the data the committee is looking at:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/playoffPicture

(11-01-2015 10:27 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  1. Clemson
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. TCU

5. Baylor
6. Ohio St

You still havn't let go of last year have you? Poor poor little horny frog.

I can see Michigan St ahead of Ohio St. Sorry- but they aren't going to put a team with the #109 SOS ahead of them.

(11-01-2015 10:57 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-01-2015 10:27 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  1. Clemson
2. LSU
3. Alabama
4. TCU

5. Baylor
6. Ohio St

You still havn't let go of last year have you? Poor poor little horny frog.

Huh? I predicted what happened last year and have argued with Frog fans til I'm blue in the face it was entirely consistent with what the committee had done all year.

It's the same reasoning why I think Ohio State will be outside the top 4 this first ranking.

(11-01-2015 01:21 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  

(11-01-2015 01:17 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(11-01-2015 01:13 PM)MplsBison Wrote:  Ha, Baylor.

Haven't played anyone. Crap SOS. That's what the committee will look at.

It's the eye test. Yes their competition hasn't been all that great but that is the most well rounded Baylor team that they have had in years.

People want to ding them for the QB issue but all Baylor has done over the past years is plug and play QB's and they do great.

Until we actually see a Baylor QB fail, they wont be dinged for it. We have had plenty of evidence of teams having backups that do pretty good. Ohio State? Notre Dame?

You have no idea what the committee looks at obviously. They told us plenty last year that the "Eye Test" is big for them. You have some catching up to do, as usual.

The committee is on record saying SOS, to date, is that they'll look at, for this first ranking.

The QB situation won't matter, for this ranking. They're on record saying that, too. They'll only be judged on what they've done so far.

Which is: beat nobody.

And they've also talked about the eye test.

the eye test yeah- but it's pretty damn easy to look good to the eyes when you're playing the little sisters of the poor, and cupcake state like what Baylor has done.

Ohio State
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Memphis

(11-01-2015 11:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I can see Michigan St ahead of Ohio St. Sorry- but they aren't going to put a team with the #109 SOS ahead of them.

Just to follow up on this (since I think it is an interesting discussion), when I look at the SOR and game control data, combined with the more traditional poll and FPI/computer data, I think only two teams are for sure in the top 4- LSU and Clemson. After that each team has its warts and I could see any of Ohio State, TCU, Baylor, Alabama and Michigan State in the top 4, based on how the committee voted last year.

For what it is worth if you average the SOR, game control, FPI and AP ranks here are the averages:

1. Clemson 3.00
2. LSU 4.25
3. Alabama 4.75
4. Baylor 5.25
5. TCU 5.75
6. Ohio State 7.5
7. Fla 8.25
8. ND 10.00
9. Michigan St 11.75
10. Stanford 13.00
11. OSU 13.75
12. Iowa 14.75

So if the committee is emphasizing these criteria like they did last year, several questions emerge. How are they going to deal with Alabama being so high in these variables, yet with one loss? Are they going to want the pressure of explaining why the consensus #1 team (Ohio State) all year is low or left out of the top 4? What are they going to do with Baylor who has looked dominant but hasn't played anyone and has a new QB? What about TCU who generally has several close (lucky?) wins, but does have P5 4 road wins resulting in a stronger than expected SOR (#6). What about Mich St who has some good quality wins but has struggled in game control and computer rankings like the FPI don't like them?

I predict:

#1 LSU
#2 Clemson
#3 Michigan State
#4 Alabama

Ohio State, Baylor, and TCU really haven't played anyone....

1. LSU
2. TCU
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson

FWIW, if the BCS rankings were still with us, it looks like top 4 would be OSU, LSU, Clemson, TCU.

The path of least resistance that would still somewhat keep true to their tendencies last year would be to put Ohio State at 3 or 4. Even though it would be ignoring SOR and game control data more than they did at any point last year, no one is really going to question it, and it still rewards LSU and Clemson for being strong across the board.

I really thought the committee was outstanding at every step of the way last year and entirely consistent all year long. If they are consistent again this year Ohio State should probably be 5 or 6, and Alabama will be in the top 4 despite the 1 loss in the presence of the all of the 0 loss teams. But its close enough in the 3-7 range they have some leeway.

(11-02-2015 10:18 AM)Wedge Wrote:  FWIW, if the BCS rankings were still with us, it looks like top 4 would be OSU, LSU, Clemson, TCU.

But thankfully, computer polls no longer get to decide anything ... except in message board arguments.

Even though it's not what I predicted, they'll probably just have it be the same as the AP poll top four.