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Presidential Horse Race Thread
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #141
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
To be more blunt (and it has nothing to do with football or our President, if that makes you more comfortable answering) a) Is a border always a border (basically to me an arbitrarily agreed delineation subject to change) and is any border a border in concept (not in parsing, but theoretically and objectively can that said to be true), or is there something inherent in one border being different from another other philosophically, theoretically or in practice other than what has specifically been subscribed to it by man (I'm not thinking scientifically, in this instance) (would there be no other reason that I am just missing?) and b) would it thus be subject to change in the same way that the aforementioned law was (or could have been) retroactively applied to an already existing situation after the fact (as Owl69 appeared to me to suggest), and if so, would any arbitrary limits really apply fundamentally, inherently and irrevocably or would they be objectively subject to the same allowances for change?

My current thinking is a) yes, there is nothing inherently different other than what man has subscribed to each, they are not fundamental truths of physics for instance, therefore nothing really objectively prevents rules for one being cross-applied to rules from the other if the underlying truth is consistent, especially when it comes to inherent rights, which are objectively unchanging (e.g. "We hold these truths to be self-evident," etc...) and b) yes again, there is nothing inherently special or fundamentally immovable about them in an inherent sense, thus not necessarily precluding retroactive application of a subsequent change in law.

The things I am postulating might not have to exist in a present actuality but might come to be if those two things hold true and the proper question was presented. I believe the US Supreme Court has held they are objectively true but as I'm not as expert as some of ya'll, I thought I'd take the opportunity to ask your opinion due to happening to catch the last few pages of this thread's subject matter as I'd believe you are much more learned than me in this area.

Thank you.
11-09-2015 11:48 AM
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Gravy Owl Offline
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Post: #142
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(11-09-2015 03:06 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  I am interested in jurisdictional issues as they apply to the concept. If you wouldn't mind indulging a tangent here unrelated to the Obama issue, (of which I have little interest at this point as it is to me a fait accompli); Since nation-states are defined by borders, how does jus sanguines and jus soli apply to states/territories within a nation-state? Thank you.

I'm not sure I understand your question.

69/70/75 undoubtedly knows more than I do about this stuff anyway.

I just wanted it to be clear that Obama's citizenship is unconditionally legitimate by jus soli, not dependent on his mother's residence history, and not merely a fait accompli.
11-09-2015 12:04 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Post: #143
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(11-09-2015 12:04 PM)Gravy Owl Wrote:  
(11-09-2015 03:06 AM)GoodOwl Wrote:  I am interested in jurisdictional issues as they apply to the concept. If you wouldn't mind indulging a tangent here unrelated to the Obama issue, (of which I have little interest at this point as it is to me a fait accompli); Since nation-states are defined by borders, how does jus sanguines and jus soli apply to states/territories within a nation-state? Thank you.

I'm not sure I understand your question.

69/70/75 undoubtedly knows more than I do about this stuff anyway.

I just wanted it to be clear that Obama's citizenship is unconditionally legitimate by jus soli, not dependent on his mother's residence history, and not merely a fait accompli.


Thank you. I'll preface my comments by saying I think you'll find yourself laughing at what I write based on what I imagine might be your preconceived notion of me from other posts elsewhere. That's okay. I try to have more than one dimension, which I see as a strength, though I make no claim to be perfect, as has been oft pointed out to me.

You may be surprised, but I very much count on that bolded part to be true. I think the concept applies equally and should apply equally to all, regardless of background or circumstance, but then to me the fundamental question is seldom clearly raised in these ways except in the most unusual of cases.

I have learned that there is what is written and then there is the legal custom and inertia. When one is wont to point that out, feathers get ruffled. Some folks don't like to have to follow or be subject to the rules. Remember, Nixon thought he should be above the law. Ridiculous to me. "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that ALL men are created equal..."

But I'm talking about courts and judges and regular people here, not Presidents and diplomats and lawyers. One thing I've learned is that most all people when it comes down to it want the exception or the waiver for their situation. They will most often fight like a rabid, cornered dog to the end for it rather than submit to equality. Another word for it would be selfishness. That is where all too many problems start, most of which could be quickly dispensed in equity were followed.

To me, (and I believe to the Founding Fathers) equity can come only from objective truth. If one has no grounding objectively, then it is only a matter of time before one finds oneself in a situation created by trying to do whatever does not deem unquestionably wrong, but leads to the commission of wrongdoing, whether ostensibly unintentional or not. (and we are all subject to this truth, as we are all human.) The intention and/or tendency to seek the "out" is where the problem lies. Some call it sin, others "life."

The one word I'd probably change in the Declaration is "happiness" with "satisfaction." To me satisfaction implies occasional unhappiness, but the obverse does not appear to me to be true. It is the misconstruing of this concept that appears to be the cause of much grief. Mercy is a choice, governed by universal truth, not a guarantee, problems arise by trying to impose it on others. Few people seem to argue for equality, and that's a shame because we live in a country that as an ideal believed that experiment to be worth the price it cost to establish it, even if imperfectly.

As far as my calling it a fait accompli in your discussion about the current President, I was referring more to the fact I just don't feel all worked up about it like some folks might, which also may surprise you. I'm more interested in what he did with it. But I guess at this juncture we've largely seen that, and it is a matter of opinion whether we agree or disagree.

The question I was postulating had nothing to do with him or his situation, but the border idea seemed applicable, which is why I ask the questions I do here. I am concerned with establishing more true equality for all. But of course, with equality comes responsibility, and some try to avoid that at all costs, most of all those who ostensibly legislate where they have no jurisdiction, which creates innumerable problems. I realize fundamentally, some people don't want equality, though they purport to, they want to pick and choose. Such is this mortal coil.

I'd imagine you might find my take on these types of issues surprising from some of my posts. But I make the distinction between participating on a free sports board and a court of law. The same rules do not appear to fundamentally apply, although that is also not the border I am asking about. That's the best I can do to clarify at this juncture, pending any responses you'd care to post regarding what I already stated in this and other posts.
11-09-2015 12:57 PM
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JOwl Offline
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Post: #144
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(11-08-2015 04:01 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(11-08-2015 01:18 PM)JOwl Wrote:  I don't actually question his telling of his life story... or that birthright citizenship is the law of the land.

Are you sure? Sure it's in the text of the constitution, but after all, the constitution is a living, breathing document that is supposed to adapt to the prevailing views of the time -- provided, of course, that one agrees with those views.

Yes, I'm sure that I don't question it.
11-09-2015 05:29 PM
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gsloth Offline
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Post: #145
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
60 days to the first voting - how predictive has polling been at this point of the cycle?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal...e-winners/

I completely forgot who was leading the GOP polling 60 days before Iowa in 2012.
12-03-2015 10:40 PM
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JOwl Offline
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Post: #146
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(12-03-2015 10:40 PM)gsloth Wrote:  60 days to the first voting - how predictive has polling been at this point of the cycle?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal...e-winners/

I completely forgot who was leading the GOP polling 60 days before Iowa in 2012.

Yeah, it's stuff like that that's kept me from really thinking of Trump as a viable candidate - we're still in the silly season.

But on the other hand, there's not a Romney analogue at this point. So who knows, maybe Trump's lead really does mean something.
12-04-2015 11:03 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #147
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(12-04-2015 11:03 AM)JOwl Wrote:  
(12-03-2015 10:40 PM)gsloth Wrote:  60 days to the first voting - how predictive has polling been at this point of the cycle?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal...e-winners/

I completely forgot who was leading the GOP polling 60 days before Iowa in 2012.

Yeah, it's stuff like that that's kept me from really thinking of Trump as a viable candidate - we're still in the silly season.

But on the other hand, there's not a Romney analogue at this point. So who knows, maybe Trump's lead really does mean something.

My opinion is that when it comes time to actually mark a ballot, Trump will lose some support.
12-04-2015 11:09 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #148
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(12-04-2015 11:03 AM)JOwl Wrote:  
(12-03-2015 10:40 PM)gsloth Wrote:  60 days to the first voting - how predictive has polling been at this point of the cycle?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal...e-winners/

I completely forgot who was leading the GOP polling 60 days before Iowa in 2012.

Yeah, it's stuff like that that's kept me from really thinking of Trump as a viable candidate - we're still in the silly season.

But on the other hand, there's not a Romney analogue at this point. So who knows, maybe Trump's lead really does mean something.

If I had to bet money, I'd still bet on Rubio as the nominee, but I wouldn't feel comfortable about it at all. Still don't think Trump will be the nominee, but I no longer think it's impossible that it will be Trump or Cruz. I'd expect Clinton to get some prominent Republican endorsements if either of those things happen.

I also wouldn't rule out a Trump third party bid. And I'm not sure which party that would hurt most. I think the Rs would lose the most votes to Trump, but the Dem nominee might lose crucial votes in MI, OH, or PA....
12-04-2015 11:12 AM
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JOwl Offline
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Post: #149
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  If I had to bet money, I'd still bet on Rubio as the nominee, but I wouldn't feel comfortable about it at all. Still don't think Trump will be the nominee, but I no longer think it's impossible that it will be Trump or Cruz. I'd expect Clinton to get some prominent Republican endorsements if either of those things happen.

I also wouldn't rule out a Trump third party bid. And I'm not sure which party that would hurt most. I think the Rs would lose the most votes to Trump, but the Dem nominee might lose crucial votes in MI, OH, or PA....

Yeah, I'd bet on Rubio too. And I think the prediction markets have him as the favorite, somewhere around a 50% shot at winning the nominatin.

As you talk about Trump and Cruz, I realize the main effect Trump has had on me is to make Cruz appear to be electable (and establishment, even). If someone asked me to estimate the probabilities, I'd put it at 60% Rubio, 30% Cruz, 5% Bush and 5% anyone else.
12-04-2015 12:19 PM
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JOwl Offline
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Post: #150
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(12-04-2015 11:09 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  My opinion is that when it comes time to actually mark a ballot, Trump will lose some support.

I agree.

I also feel like he's appealed to just about everyone he's going to appeal to. I.e., his current polling at ~35% of Republicans nationwide represents the upper bound of who would vote for him, regardless of how the competition shakes out.
12-04-2015 12:22 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #151
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(12-04-2015 12:22 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(12-04-2015 11:09 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  My opinion is that when it comes time to actually mark a ballot, Trump will lose some support.
I agree.
I also feel like he's appealed to just about everyone he's going to appeal to. I.e., his current polling at ~35% of Republicans nationwide represents the upper bound of who would vote for him, regardless of how the competition shakes out.

The last part in particular. I think he'll get his 30-35%, but if the other 60-65% unite around one candidate, Trump is toast. Of course, he could decide to make a run as an independent, which would pretty much carve a huge piece out of the republican voting base.
12-04-2015 02:28 PM
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Jonathan Sadow Offline
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Post: #152
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(12-03-2015 10:40 PM)gsloth Wrote:  60 days to the first voting - how predictive has polling been at this point of the cycle?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal...e-winners/

I completely forgot who was leading the GOP polling 60 days before Iowa in 2012.

Pollsters are like generals - always fighting the last war.

At this point, it's going to be either Carson, Cruz, Rubio, or Trump.
12-05-2015 02:25 AM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #153
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
Wow, so now Trump has said something so extreme Dick Cheney has condemned it as going "against everything we stand for and believe in."

When I'm agreeing with Cheney, things have gotten really weird...
12-08-2015 10:09 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #154
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
When it comes to the Middle East, we seem to be having a race between the two major parties to see which one can get their heads further up their a**es.

Never fight a war that you don't intend to win. Bush and Obama have both violated that.
Never, ever, ever, ever fight a war when you don't even know whom you WANT to win. Obama is doing that now.
Treat your friends better than you treat your enemies. Obama treats our enemies better than Bush treated our friends.
And Trump's latest comments are just off the scale idiotic.

I've spent time over there in the Navy, for work, and for vacation. I've got many expat (both US and European) over there. I get emails from them all the time, "Does anybody in Washington have any clue what they are doing?" We need to bring in an expat who has lived there for 30-40 years to explain to those idiots just how things work over there. We have lost the plot completely.
12-08-2015 11:16 AM
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chrisc Offline
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Post: #155
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
My theory is that Trump doesn't actually want to be president (it would be a lot of work, and a pay cut) but he's getting nervous that he's still leading in the polls. So he says some crazy off the cuff things to try and lose supporters. Unfortunately his plan doesn’t seem to be working that well.
12-08-2015 01:10 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #156
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(12-08-2015 01:10 PM)chrisc Wrote:  My theory is that Trump doesn't actually want to be president (it would be a lot of work, and a pay cut) but he's getting nervous that he's still leading in the polls. So he says some crazy off the cuff things to try and lose supporters. Unfortunately his plan doesn’t seem to be working that well.

I thought for a long time that he didn't actually want to be president either. And maybe he didn't at the beginning. But now I'm beginning to think he really does.

Of course a new poll just came out showing Jeb! surging in NH, so maybe we get our boring Bush-Clinton matchup after all.
01-27-2016 01:02 PM
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JSA Offline
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Post: #157
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(01-27-2016 01:02 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  
(12-08-2015 01:10 PM)chrisc Wrote:  My theory is that Trump doesn't actually want to be president (it would be a lot of work, and a pay cut) but he's getting nervous that he's still leading in the polls. So he says some crazy off the cuff things to try and lose supporters. Unfortunately his plan doesn’t seem to be working that well.

I thought for a long time that he didn't actually want to be president either. And maybe he didn't at the beginning. But now I'm beginning to think he really does.

Of course a new poll just came out showing Jeb! surging in NH, so maybe we get our boring Bush-Clinton matchup after all.

I thought Christie and Kasich were surging.
01-27-2016 05:39 PM
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JustAnotherAustinOwl Offline
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Post: #158
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(01-27-2016 05:39 PM)JSA Wrote:  
(01-27-2016 01:02 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  
(12-08-2015 01:10 PM)chrisc Wrote:  My theory is that Trump doesn't actually want to be president (it would be a lot of work, and a pay cut) but he's getting nervous that he's still leading in the polls. So he says some crazy off the cuff things to try and lose supporters. Unfortunately his plan doesn’t seem to be working that well.

I thought for a long time that he didn't actually want to be president either. And maybe he didn't at the beginning. But now I'm beginning to think he really does.

Of course a new poll just came out showing Jeb! surging in NH, so maybe we get our boring Bush-Clinton matchup after all.

I thought Christie and Kasich were surging.

LOL, I'm sure it's changed several times since I posted that.
01-29-2016 09:46 AM
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georgewebb Offline
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Post: #159
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(12-08-2015 11:16 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Treat your friends better than you treat your enemies. Obama treats our enemies better than Bush treated our friends.

Obama's unnatural determination in that respect is certainly bizarre, and possibly psychotic. It's one of the most startling aspects of his administration. The fact that two Rice alums are among his high-profile apparatchiks is also discouraging (though far less important).
01-29-2016 11:27 AM
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WestGrayStreetOwl Offline
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Post: #160
RE: Presidential Horse Race Thread
(01-27-2016 05:39 PM)JSA Wrote:  
(01-27-2016 01:02 PM)JustAnotherAustinOwl Wrote:  
(12-08-2015 01:10 PM)chrisc Wrote:  My theory is that Trump doesn't actually want to be president (it would be a lot of work, and a pay cut) but he's getting nervous that he's still leading in the polls. So he says some crazy off the cuff things to try and lose supporters. Unfortunately his plan doesn’t seem to be working that well.

I thought for a long time that he didn't actually want to be president either. And maybe he didn't at the beginning. But now I'm beginning to think he really does.

Of course a new poll just came out showing Jeb! surging in NH, so maybe we get our boring Bush-Clinton matchup after all.

I thought Christie and Kasich were surging.

That was last week. I think we're about due for a Santorum surge myself.
01-29-2016 12:15 PM
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