Teams with 1st loss: 17
Boston College
Air Force
Tulsa
Connecticut
Illinois
Duke
Northern Illinois
Georgia Tech
Auburn
Western Kentucky
Old Dominion
(Charlotte)
Kentucky
Southern California
Pittsburgh
Alabama
Brigham Young

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss
Week 1: 33.59% (43 of 128)
Week 2: 40% (34 of 85)
Week 3: 33.33% (17 of 51)

Number of Possible Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 8
-This is down from 11 last week. We lost BYU as well as our remaining potential undefeated champs from Conference USA and the Mountain West.

Week 3 Thoughts:
-For the most part, this was a week of disappointing finishes for early season favorites. Undefeated #2 Alabama and undefeated #6 USC both lost at home to good competition in undefeated Ole Miss and 1 loss Stanford. Ohio State relied on its defense to hold on against undefeated Northern Illinois, while TCU and Michigan State weren’t particularly impressive in their wins either.

-Both remaining undefeated independent teams were underdogs this week and both played well. Notre Dame won their game and remains in the national title hunt. BYU lost a very close one at UCLA. This knocks them out of the national title chase and leaves little room for error if they want in one of the New Year 6 bowls. Not being in a conference, they will need to be selected as an at large, meaning being in the top 10-12. They have 2 remaining games vs. power 5 conference opponents. They play at Michigan next week and face Missouri at home in November.

-The Mountain West and Conference USA both lost their remaining undefeated teams this week. In the case of Conference USA, this likely ends the conference’s hope of a New Years 6 Bowl.
-At the Group of 5 level, there are 6 undefeated teams left. There are 4 in the American and 2 in the MAC. The American champion at this point has to be the most likely to end up with the bid, but the Mountain West and MAC champions are still very much in it (with smaller chances for the Sunbelt and Conference USA).

-We are already down to only 9 winless teams. Two of them are from power 5 conferences. Next week there will probably be one. Louisville hosts Samford and Kansas plays at Rutgers.

Week 4 Thoughts:
-We only have 3 games between undefeated teams next week. They are LSU @ Syracuse, TCU @ Texas Tech, and UCLA @ Arizona.

-UCLA plays at Arizona. Both are undefeated and this could be very important for the PAC-12 South.

-BYU playing at Michigan is almost certainly eliminated from a New Year’s 6 Bowl with a loss.

-Looking at the race for the group of 5 bid reminds me a lot of looking at the BCS race in the past (as there was so much less margin for error than with 4 teams). Few thoughts there:

1. Undefeated Ohio University play at Minnesota this week. Winning would be a tall task, but if they did manage to pull it out they’d finish non-conference play undefeated and would likely be favorited in the rest of their games outside of maybe Bowling Green and Northern Illinois.

2. 1-loss Boise State plays at Virginia. This isn’t quite a must win to stay in the race for a New Year’s 6 bowl, but it would take a lot to get them back in if they lose, especially given the Mountain West has had a fairly lackluster non-conference performance compared to past years so far.

3. 1-loss Northern Illinois plays at Boston College. The Huskers staying without another loss for awhile definitely helps the MAC perception. They are 4 point underdogs.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 5, American Athletic: 4, Big 12: 7, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 4, SEC: 6, independents: 1, total: 34

Clemson
Florida State
North Carolina State
Miami (FL)
Kansas State
Missouri
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Syracuse
West Virginia
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan State
Northwestern
Ohio State
Memphis
Houston
Ohio U.
Toledo
Texas Christian
Utah
Arizona
California
UCLA
Florida
Georgia
Louisiana State
Ole Miss
Navy
Notre Dame
Temple

One-Loss Teams: ACC: 7, American Athletic: 3, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 6, Conference USA: 8, MAC: 3, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 8, SEC: 5, Sun Belt: 5, independents: 1, total: 49

Wake Forest
Boston College
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
Duke
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Tulsa
Penn State
Maryland
Michigan
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Middle Tennessee
Western Kentucky
Marshall
Florida International
Old Dominion
(Charlotte)
Rice
Southern Miss
Buffalo
Ball State
Northern Illinois
Hawaii
Air Force
Boise State
Stanford
Oregon
Washington
Washington State
Oregon State
Colorado
Arizona State
Southern California
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Auburn
Mississippi State
Georgia Southern
South Alabama
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Appalachian State
Brigham Young

Remaining Winless Teams: ACC: 1, American Athletic: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 2, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 0, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 9

Louisville
Central Florida
Kansas
Florida Atlantic
North Texas
Massachusetts
UNLV
Wyoming
New Mexico State
Army

Huskies... NIU Huskies. Huskers play in Nebraska haha but I'll take getting confused for a P5 team =)

I'd really say with how putrid the MWC is, a loss by Boise knocks them totally out. They would have a 3 point win vs Washington. Of their 8 conference games- 6 are 1-2 or worse.

I think the Ville will go on a nice run soon. Samford this week then a big game against NC State. We will truly see where we stand in the next couple of weeks.

A few crap teams still on that list.

Syracuse is not a contender. Missouri, Indiana, Iowa, Memphis, Utah, Arizona aren't either IMO.

Missouri has struggled against ARkansas ST and UConn. Nuff said. Arizona almost got beat at home by UTSA who were dominated by KSU and OSU. Memphis struggled against some crap team last week, win against KU means nothing. KU always loses. Utah is not even the best team in the state or it's division so that seem like a stretch. Cuse almost lost to CMU at home last week. CMU is not so great that it should be taking a Championship level team to OT on the road. Iowa beat ISU but is certainly not a legitimate championship contender.

When you take into account the many variables there are probably only a few schools let with a chance after only 3 weeks. B1G has a couple and possibly Northwestern but that's about it. ACC has Clemson and FSU. BYU and Notre Dame, yes I believe BYU with a 1 point loss on the road against UCLA has a shot against other 1 loss teams. PAC is pretty much down to UCLA and Oregon already. USC and Stanford have hurt themselves. SEC and Big 12 still has several possibilities with multiple undefeated teams who are playing good at this point.

(09-20-2015 09:36 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  ...1. Undefeated Ohio University play at Minnesota this week.......

...
Ohio State
....
Ohio U.
....

Why spell out OHIO University but not University of Minnesota? isn't it easier to just say "Undefeated Ohio plays at Minnesota this week"?

And why add a "U" at the end of OHIO but not any other other school? Why not Indiana U, or Michigan U, or Minnesota U or Ohio State U?

Ohio's name is simply OHIO, there's no need to clarify, there's no confusion because there is only one OHIO. Thanks.

1-2 teams do not mean that they are bad teams at all. Any G5 teams that lost very close games to others does not mean that they are bad. They are good who do expose how good P5 schools are.
BYU with UCLA AND Nebraska
Boise State and Washington
UConn and Missouri
Nevada and Texas A&M
Jacksonville State and Auburn
Tulsa and Oklahoma
UTSA and Arizona


What we could have is that Colorado State only lost by 3 to both Minnesota and Colorado. Before you bash Colorado State for losing, this is an in-state rivalry that pumps up the players and fans on both sides. This is a game like the USC and UCLA and games like that. It is a heated and long rivalry.

With and luck, Colorado State could be 3-0. Other schools that could be 3-0 with any luck are Central Michigan, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, BYU, La.-Lafayette, Marshall, Utah State, USF, Bowling Green, East Carolina, UNR, FIU, Rice, UCF, Air force, UConn., Tulsa, Northern Illinois and Old Dominion. Others could be 2-1. It is close games. We just can't say which school is terrible or not. People think Oregon will blow out Eastern Washington. I put Oregon on the upset alert. Look at how close game that was?

Instead of saying all G5 and FCS teams are terrible? Just say all teams are terrible at the beginning of the year. The schools lost early improves at the end of the year.

(09-21-2015 12:46 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(09-20-2015 09:36 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  ...1. Undefeated Ohio University play at Minnesota this week.......

...
Ohio State
....
Ohio U.
....

Why spell out OHIO University but not University of Minnesota? isn't it easier to just say "Undefeated Ohio plays at Minnesota this week"?

And why add a "U" at the end of OHIO but not any other other school? Why not Indiana U, or Michigan U, or Minnesota U or Ohio State U?

Ohio's name is simply OHIO, there's no need to clarify, there's no confusion because there is only one OHIO. Thanks.

Because 3 of those teams you listed are U of Indiana, U of Michigan, U of Minnesota... He did it to refrain from creating confusion with Ohio State seeing as how both teams are undefeated.

(09-20-2015 09:39 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd really say with how putrid the MWC is, a loss by Boise knocks them totally out. They would have a 3 point win vs Washington. Of their 8 conference games- 6 are 1-2 or worse.

Brett McMurphyVerified account
‏@McMurphyESPN
Boise State starting QB Ryan Finley out 8 weeks w/broken bone in his ankle suffered Friday vs. Idaho

(09-20-2015 10:07 PM)Okielite Wrote:  A few crap teams still on that list.

Syracuse is not a contender. Missouri, Indiana, Iowa, Memphis, Utah, Arizona aren't either IMO.

Missouri has struggled against ARkansas ST and UConn. Nuff said. Arizona almost got beat at home by UTSA who were dominated by KSU and OSU. Memphis struggled against some crap team last week, win against KU means nothing. KU always loses. Utah is not even the best team in the state or it's division so that seem like a stretch. Cuse almost lost to CMU at home last week. CMU is not so great that it should be taking a Championship level team to OT on the road. Iowa beat ISU but is certainly not a legitimate championship contender.

When you take into account the many variables there are probably only a few schools let with a chance after only 3 weeks. B1G has a couple and possibly Northwestern but that's about it. ACC has Clemson and FSU. BYU and Notre Dame, yes I believe BYU with a 1 point loss on the road against UCLA has a shot against other 1 loss teams. PAC is pretty much down to UCLA and Oregon already. USC and Stanford have hurt themselves. SEC and Big 12 still has several possibilities with multiple undefeated teams who are playing good at this point.

yes, some of the pretenders won't go away until conference season starts. But by week 6 all the remaining undefeated teams should be ranked by that point.

(09-21-2015 12:46 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(09-20-2015 09:36 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  ...1. Undefeated Ohio University play at Minnesota this week.......

...
Ohio State
....
Ohio U.
....

Why spell out OHIO University but not University of Minnesota? isn't it easier to just say "Undefeated Ohio plays at Minnesota this week"?

And why add a "U" at the end of OHIO but not any other other school? Why not Indiana U, or Michigan U, or Minnesota U or Ohio State U?

Ohio's name is simply OHIO, there's no need to clarify, there's no confusion because there is only one OHIO. Thanks.

I knew I'd get called on this eventually and I'm surprised it took this long. If I was first starting the list now, I would have probably put Ohio (although as a traditionalist Ohio State fan who had no issue what-so-ever with being called Ohio by Hoke at Michigan, it felt weird), but I've been doing this either on this board, others, or just for myself since 2007. I know Ohio is what they push and have been trying to get called for about 2 decades, but I don't think I actually ever heard anyone in Columbus say just Ohio until after I graduated high school in 2003. Virtually everyone called it Ohio University or just OU including the people I was graduating with who were going there (that has changed since). Making up this list not too long afterward, it seemed really weird to just put Ohio and I've left it that way for the same reason I've left real names rather than initials (outside of the schools which contain both states and cities in their names) and have the teams in the initial order based on their 2006 conferences. It's kind of a testament to how things have changed since I started.

ohio1317, one minor correction here.

Pittsburgh is spelled with an "H" at the end.

(09-21-2015 08:58 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  ohio1317, one minor correction here.

Pittsburgh is spelled with an "H" at the end.

Oops...Thanks.

(09-21-2015 08:38 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(09-21-2015 12:46 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(09-20-2015 09:36 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  ...1. Undefeated Ohio University play at Minnesota this week.......

...
Ohio State
....
Ohio U.
....

Why spell out OHIO University but not University of Minnesota? isn't it easier to just say "Undefeated Ohio plays at Minnesota this week"?

And why add a "U" at the end of OHIO but not any other other school? Why not Indiana U, or Michigan U, or Minnesota U or Ohio State U?

Ohio's name is simply OHIO, there's no need to clarify, there's no confusion because there is only one OHIO. Thanks.

I knew I'd get called on this eventually and I'm surprised it took this long. If I was first starting the list now, I would have probably put Ohio (although as a traditionalist Ohio State fan who had no issue what-so-ever with being called Ohio by Hoke at Michigan, it felt weird), but I've been doing this either on this board, others, or just for myself since 2007. I know Ohio is what they push and have been trying to get called for about 2 decades, but I don't think I actually ever heard anyone in Columbus say just Ohio until after I graduated high school in 2003. Virtually everyone called it Ohio University or just OU including the people I was graduating with who were going there (that has changed since). Making up this list not too long afterward, it seemed really weird to just put Ohio and I've left it that way for the same reason I've left real names rather than initials (outside of the schools which contain both states and cities in their names) and have the teams in the initial order based on their 2006 conferences. It's kind of a testament to how things have changed since I started.

I'm not sure why you're catching so much criticism, you posted a quite well thought out analyzation of the college football season thus far. Kudos... I've always called Ohio State (on forums) "tOSU" for THE Ohio State.

Interesting how similar these results are to last year. Then, after Week 3, there were also 34 unbeaten teams. There were 11 winless teams at this stage, compared with 9 this year.

This year there are more unbeaten G5 teams (6) than last year (4). All in all, pretty close.

(09-21-2015 10:00 AM)ken d Wrote:  Interesting how similar these results are to last year. Then, after Week 3, there were also 34 unbeaten teams. There were 11 winless teams at this stage, compared with 9 this year.

This year there are more unbeaten G5 teams (6) than last year (4). All in all, pretty close.

having been watching this for a couple of years, it is interesting to me that every week about 30-40% of unbeaten teams lose each week. It is amazingly predictable, at least till week 8 or so.

I think this may be the week where we see a lot more carnage than last few years only because I think this is the weekend where there's a lot more games vs before with the 1 fewer bye week.

(09-21-2015 07:38 AM)DexterDevil Wrote:  

(09-21-2015 12:46 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(09-20-2015 09:36 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  ...1. Undefeated Ohio University play at Minnesota this week.......

...
Ohio State
....
Ohio U.
....

Why spell out OHIO University but not University of Minnesota? isn't it easier to just say "Undefeated Ohio plays at Minnesota this week"?

And why add a "U" at the end of OHIO but not any other other school? Why not Indiana U, or Michigan U, or Minnesota U or Ohio State U?

Ohio's name is simply OHIO, there's no need to clarify, there's no confusion because there is only one OHIO. Thanks.

Because 3 of those teams you listed are U of Indiana, U of Michigan, U of Minnesota... He did it to refrain from creating confusion with Ohio State seeing as how both teams are undefeated.

no, it's not U of Indiana, it's Indiana University. Do people refer to the University of Oklahoma as UO or OU?

But let's get to the true nonsense of your post "he did it to refrain from creating confusion with Ohio State". AND THERE IT IS.

Ohio State is NOT Ohio.

name ONE example when Michigan U is used so people don't think its a reference to the Spartans, or Florida U and Seminoles, or Arizona and Sun Devils, or Oregon and Beavers, etc. etc.

Ohio State is not OHIO, and never will be. There is no confusion so there is no need to clarify by adding "U" or "University" after the name OHIO. Period.

(09-21-2015 11:50 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(09-21-2015 07:38 AM)DexterDevil Wrote:  

(09-21-2015 12:46 AM)perimeterpost Wrote:  

(09-20-2015 09:36 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  ...1. Undefeated Ohio University play at Minnesota this week.......

...
Ohio State
....
Ohio U.
....

Why spell out OHIO University but not University of Minnesota? isn't it easier to just say "Undefeated Ohio plays at Minnesota this week"?

And why add a "U" at the end of OHIO but not any other other school? Why not Indiana U, or Michigan U, or Minnesota U or Ohio State U?

Ohio's name is simply OHIO, there's no need to clarify, there's no confusion because there is only one OHIO. Thanks.

Because 3 of those teams you listed are U of Indiana, U of Michigan, U of Minnesota... He did it to refrain from creating confusion with Ohio State seeing as how both teams are undefeated.

no, it's not U of Indiana, it's Indiana University. Do people refer to the University of Oklahoma as UO or OU?

But let's get to the true nonsense of your post "he did it to refrain from creating confusion with Ohio State". AND THERE IT IS.

Ohio State is NOT Ohio.

name ONE example when Michigan U is used so people don't think its a reference to the Spartans, or Florida U and Seminoles, or Arizona and Sun Devils, or Oregon and Beavers, etc. etc.

Ohio State is not OHIO, and never will be. There is no confusion so there is no need to clarify by adding "U" or "University" after the name OHIO. Period.

I've really wanted for Ohio to start going by 'The Ohio University' or simply tOU. The abbreviated version keeps there from being any confusion between it and OU (University of Oklahoma, which doesn't know how to abbreviate) or even UO (Oregon)- and of course it would piss off the fans in Columbus.

(09-21-2015 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think this may be the week where we see a lot more carnage than last few years only because I think this is the weekend where there's a lot more games vs before with the 1 fewer bye week.

Yet, oddly, no fewer than six of the unbeatens are idle in the same week - Florida St, Clemson, Miami,Oklahoma, Kansas St and Temple.

I wonder what impact the loss of that extra bye week will have on the number and quality of weeknight games this season. It's a lot easier to schedule a Thursday night game if you are idle the Saturday before.

I just looked it up - there aren't more games this week, but we are getting to the point where many more of the games are between FBS opponents, meaning more teams are at risk than during the first few weeks. The bye weeks are pretty well spread out over the season. By week they are:


.............2015...2014
Week 1....2........4
Week 2....1........8
Week 3...17......19
Week 4...17......25
Week 5....9.......22
Week 6...17......14
Week 7...15......24
Week 8...17......23
Week 9...23......30
Week 10...8.......20
Week 11..11......30
Week 12...9.......28
Week 13...4.......14
Week 14..NA.......6

EDITED to add 2014 data