Teams 5 and 6 will be pissed off.

1. Ohio State -- I really want to predict Michigan State in the Big 10's spot, but then I remember all of that talent on OSU
2. Auburn -- I predicted an Auburn national championship early on and I'm sticking with it for now.
3. TCU -- I don't see them making it unless they are unbeaten.
4. The fourth spot is a toss up to me among four potential one-loss teams -- the aforementioned Michigan State, Notre Dame, Georgia and..... Ole Miss. The loser of the Auburn-Georgia game will end up with two losses in my scenario, which eliminates them. If Ole Miss drops another game besides Auburn, that would drop them. So I'm going to say Michigan State or Notre Dame.

(09-03-2015 01:43 PM)Otacon Wrote:  How can Auburn get in if they don't even play in their conference championship?

They beat the CFP #1 seed. Only loss is in a rivalry game.

Who gets in ahead of them?

Michigan St. didn't play in its CCG.

Notre Dame has a loss at Clemson.

Alabama, Georgia Tech, and the PAC 12 and Big 12 champs have TWO losses.

No one has a better win.

Ohio State
TCU
Auburn
Oregon

Mich St
Tenn
USC
Oklahoma

(09-03-2015 12:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  And the Big 12 since they've had 10 teams has had 1 playoff level season in the last 4 years.

The difference being that The Big 12 teams were 1 loss conference champs in the discussion for a spot, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2 in 2014. The ACC champs most years had more than 1 loss and were not a factor. Literally only 3 years was the ACC champ either undefeated or 1 loss in the last decade. 7/10 years the ACC was not a factor or even under consideration for a spot. The Big 12 has had 1 just about every year as well as a 1 loss non champ many years. There is a big difference in just missing and not being in the discussion to start with. It's a moral victory at best for the Big 12 but the numbers certainly are true. Statistically speaking it is extremely rare for an ACC team to finish undefeated or with 1 loss.

Year Atlantic Division Score Coastal Division Venue, Location Ticket Sales MVP
2005 #22 Florida State 27–22 #5 Virginia Tech Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville, FL 72,749 Willie Reid (Florida State)
2006 #16 Wake Forest 9–6 #22 Georgia Tech Alltel Stadium, Jacksonville, FL 62,850 Sam Swank (Wake Forest)
2007 #12 Boston College 16–30 #5 Virginia Tech Jacksonville Municipal Stadium, Jacksonville, FL 53,212 Sean Glennon (Virginia Tech)
2008 #20 Boston College 12–30 #25 Virginia Tech Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL 53,927 Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech)
2009 #25 Clemson 34–39* #10 Georgia Tech* Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL 44,897 C. J. Spiller (Clemson)
2010 #20 Florida State 33–44 #11 Virginia Tech Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC 72,379 Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech)
2011 #21 Clemson 38–10 #5 Virginia Tech Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC 73,675 Tajh Boyd (Clemson)
2012 #12 Florida State 21–15 Georgia Tech Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC 64,778 James Wilder, Jr. (Florida State)
2013 #1 Florida State 45–7 #20 Duke Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC 67,694 Jameis Winston (Florida State)
2014 #2 Florida State 37–35 #12 Georgia Tech Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC 64,808 Dalvin Cook (Florida State)

(09-03-2015 01:33 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  I have doubts about TCU, last year they had 2 games out of the sate of Texas and barely beat WVU and Kansas(34-30)... I think Minnesota will be a test.

Did you watch the Bowl game?

They beat Minnesota last year and will do the same this year.

Patterson is too good to underestimate. I'm not sure there is a better coach out there.

The Big 12 teams in 2012 and 2013 would not have been in the discussion much at all. Sorry but that's just the fact.. You get blown out by 28 and 32 points, you have no chance.

2011 Va Tech would have had a real shot as well. going into the CCG, they were #4/3 in the polls. They lost the CCG, but they would have entered that last week with a very real shot.

(09-03-2015 02:54 PM)Okielite Wrote:  

(09-03-2015 01:33 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  I have doubts about TCU, last year they had 2 games out of the sate of Texas and barely beat WVU and Kansas(34-30)... I think Minnesota will be a test.

Did you watch the Bowl game?

They beat Minnesota last year and will do the same this year.

Patterson is too good to underestimate. I'm not sure there is a better coach out there.

Not saying they will lose.... I just think Minny will be pretty good road test.

IMO Patterson is a top 5 coach easily.

(09-03-2015 02:56 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(09-03-2015 02:54 PM)Okielite Wrote:  

(09-03-2015 01:33 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  I have doubts about TCU, last year they had 2 games out of the sate of Texas and barely beat WVU and Kansas(34-30)... I think Minnesota will be a test.

Did you watch the Bowl game?

They beat Minnesota last year and will do the same this year.

Patterson is too good to underestimate. I'm not sure there is a better coach out there.

Not saying they will lose.... I just think Minny will be pretty good road test.

IMO Patterson is a top 5 coach easily.

I would add 1st games are always such crap shoots- you see a lot of upsets here that you don't see later in the season.

I will go with the tried and true formula of SCHEDULE + RETURNING TALENT + QB EXPERIENCE

If you look at the SEC, they fail with schedule and returning QBs...I think the SEC eats itself this year

I have:

#1 Ohio State vs. #4 TCU
#2 Baylor vs. #3 Notre Dame

I think both TCU and Baylor make it this year....both return too much talent and experience. Baylor is breaking in a new QB, but Art Briles will have him prepared

TCU will go undefeated, but lose to Baylor on their last game....it will be a big debate if they belong, but everyone else will have 2 losses, and they'll get in

I think the winner of the Notre Dame/Georgia Tech/Clemson round robin will get in...all three of these teams are in great shape, and return key people

I've got Ohio State as #1 of course...I think they repeat

FSU, Michigan State, and Arizona State are all good possibilities too....

BYU is an oddity to make the playoffs as well, but they'll need help of course. If they win their first four games, they'll emerge in the discussion.

It's a wide open year, should be exciting!

(09-03-2015 01:39 PM)YNot Wrote:  1. Georgia as 12-1 SEC Champ
2. Ohio St. as 12-1 B1G Champ
3. Notre Dame/Auburn/Michigan St./Alabama
4. Notre Dame/Auburn/Michigan St./Alabama

Auburn will have an 11-1 record, with a win over #1 Georgia, but a loss to Alabama and will not play for SEC title.

Michigan St. will also have an 11-1 record, with a win over Oregon (PAC 12 champ contender), but a loss to Ohio St. and will not play for the B1G title.

Notre Dame will also have an 11-1 record, that includes wins over ACC Champ Georgia Tech and PAC 12 champ contender Stanford - and a close road loss at ACC runner-up Clemson.

Alabama wins the SEC East with a win over Auburn, but has two losses to Georgia, one in the regular season and one in the SEC title game - giving them an 11-2 record, but both losses to the #1 team in the country...

This will be a tough call for the Selection Committee!

Georgia is in as the SEC champ, losing to Auburn during conference play, but beating Alabama twice - including in the SEC title game - and win over eventual ACC Champ Georgia Tech the prior week.

Ohio St. is in as B1G Champ, beating Michigan St. and Wisconsin for the B1G title, but drops a close one to either Minnesota or Michigan.

Stanford or UCLA wins the PAC 12, but are outside with 2 or more losses - Stanford with a loss to Notre Dame and Oregon or UCLA; Oregon a loss to Michigan St. and Stanford or UCLA in the PAC 12 title game; and UCLA with 2 losses out of Stanford, USC, Utah, and Arizona.

Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, and WVU tie in the standings, each with a 10-2 record. OU beats WVU and TCU, but loses at Baylor and to either Oklahoma St. or Kansas St. WVU beats TCU after a bye week, but loses at Oklahoma and at Baylor. TCU loses to WVU and Oklahoma, but beats Baylor.
Baylor beats Oklahoma and WVU, but loses to TCU and either Oklahoma St. or Texas. I have no idea who the One True Champion is, though - how do the Big 12 tie-breakers work now?

Georgia Tech wins the ACC, but OOC losses to Georgia and Notre Dame lands them an 11-2 record.

So THREE P5 conferences are outside of the CFP!

Bama, miss and uga go to auburn this year. bama is in the west and cannot win the east.

Sec champ
Pac 12 champ
Big 12 champ
Big ten champ

(09-03-2015 02:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The Big 12 teams in 2012 and 2013 would not have been in the discussion much at all. Sorry but that's just the fact.. You get blown out by 28 and 32 points, you have no chance.

2011 Va Tech would have had a real shot as well. going into the CCG, they were #4/3 in the polls. They lost the CCG, but they would have entered that last week with a very real shot.

You are truly clueless. Baylor was #5 in the BCS rankig in 2013 ahead of tOSU so yes clearly they were in the discussion. Drop Bama out who ws not a CC and Baylor was in the playoff. Glad we got that straight.

The Big 12 had 1 loss champions in 2012 and 2013 who were in the discussion and at worst #6. Any p-5 1 loss champ is going to be in the discussion. Not sure why you have a hard time understanding what is so simple to others.

The problem is that the ACC rarely produces a undefeated or 1 loss champ. only about 30% of the time. So from a statictical standpoint it is unlikely for an ACC team to even be in the discussion as the majority of years the ACC champ has 2 or more losses.

(09-03-2015 04:04 PM)Okielite Wrote:  

(09-03-2015 02:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The Big 12 teams in 2012 and 2013 would not have been in the discussion much at all. Sorry but that's just the fact.. You get blown out by 28 and 32 points, you have no chance.

2011 Va Tech would have had a real shot as well. going into the CCG, they were #4/3 in the polls. They lost the CCG, but they would have entered that last week with a very real shot.

You are truly clueless. Baylor was #5 in the BCS rankig in 2013 ahead of tOSU so yes clearly they were in the discussion. Drop Bama out who ws not a CC and Baylor was in the playoff. Glad we got that straight.

The Big 12 had 1 loss champions in 2012 and 2013 who were in the discussion and at worst #6. Any p-5 1 loss champ is going to be in the discussion. Not sure why you have a hard time understanding what is so simple to others.

The problem is that the ACC rarely produces a undefeated or 1 loss champ. only about 30% of the time. So from a statictical standpoint it is unlikely for an ACC team to even be in the discussion as the majority of years the ACC champ has 2 or more losses.

2013 Alabama gets in over Baylor every single time. Sorry but when you have a bs schedule and you get blown out like Baylor did- you are SOL..... No one would have put Baylor ahead of Alabama. PERIOD.
2012- Kansas St has NO chance at all.. NONE.

Glad we have that straight.

The problem is you are out and out WRONG. And Baylor ******* schedules like a *****.

The thing I love is that folks think that CC are going to be the absolute decider. They aren't. They are when the teams are close. Sorry but in 2013, Alabama and Baylor aren't remotely close.

Oh and even if Alabama didn't get it- you have Stanford to deal with..

(09-03-2015 02:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The Big 12 teams in 2012 and 2013 would not have been in the discussion much at all. Sorry but that's just the fact.. You get blown out by 28 and 32 points, you have no chance.

2011 Va Tech would have had a real shot as well. going into the CCG, they were #4/3 in the polls. They lost the CCG, but they would have entered that last week with a very real shot.

You are truly clueless. First off no team with 2 losses and who lost the CCG is even in the discussion.

Baylor was #5 in the BCS rankig in 2013 ahead of tOSU so yes clearly they were in the discussion. Drop Bama out who ws not a CC and Baylor was in the playoff. Glad we got that straight.

The Big 12 had 1 loss champions in 2012 and 2013 who were in the discussion and at worst #6. Any p-5 1 loss champ is going to be in the discussion. Not sure why you have a hard time understanding what is so simple to others.

The problem is that the ACC rarely produces a undefeated or 1 loss champ. only about 30% of the time. So from a statictical standpoint it is unlikely for an ACC team to even be in the discussion as the majority of years the ACC champ has 2 or more losses.

1. UMass
2. UConn
3. Idaho
4. Kansas

(09-03-2015 04:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing I love is that folks think that CC are going to be the absolute decider. They aren't. They are when the teams are close. Sorry but in 2013, Alabama and Baylor aren't remotely close.

Oh and even if Alabama didn't get it- you have Stanford to deal with..

They do matter. They have been 100% clear about that. Guess you weren't paying attention.



The 2013 Playoff lineup
FSU
Auburn 1 loss cc
Michigan St 1 loss cc
Baylor 1 loss cc
Bama - 1 loss non cc
Stanford- 2 loss cc


Bama/TOSU not being a CC costs them a spot and stanfords 2 losses take them out.

(09-03-2015 04:29 PM)Okielite Wrote:  

(09-03-2015 04:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing I love is that folks think that CC are going to be the absolute decider. They aren't. They are when the teams are close. Sorry but in 2013, Alabama and Baylor aren't remotely close.

Oh and even if Alabama didn't get it- you have Stanford to deal with..

They do matter. They have been 100% clear about that. Guess you weren't paying attention.



The 2013 Playoff lineup
FSU
Auburn 1 loss cc
Michigan St 1 loss cc
Baylor 1 loss cc
Bama - 1 loss non cc
Stanford- 2 loss cc


Bama/TOSU not being a CC costs them a spot and stanfords 2 losses take them out.

the cc matter, but it's not absolute. not by any stretch of the imagination....

And sorry but when you have a ******* PATHETIC schedule that Baylor had, that puts you in danger of getting passed by a 2 loss team. Sorry but the CFP committee isn't rewarding any team for a bull**** schedule.

(09-03-2015 04:25 PM)Okielite Wrote:  

(09-03-2015 02:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  The Big 12 teams in 2012 and 2013 would not have been in the discussion much at all. Sorry but that's just the fact.. You get blown out by 28 and 32 points, you have no chance.

2011 Va Tech would have had a real shot as well. going into the CCG, they were #4/3 in the polls. They lost the CCG, but they would have entered that last week with a very real shot.

You are truly clueless. First off no team with 2 losses and who lost the CCG is even in the discussion.

Baylor was #5 in the BCS rankig in 2013 ahead of tOSU so yes clearly they were in the discussion. Drop Bama out who ws not a CC and Baylor was in the playoff. Glad we got that straight.

The Big 12 had 1 loss champions in 2012 and 2013 who were in the discussion and at worst #6. Any p-5 1 loss champ is going to be in the discussion. Not sure why you have a hard time understanding what is so simple to others.

The problem is that the ACC rarely produces a undefeated or 1 loss champ. only about 30% of the time. So from a statictical standpoint it is unlikely for an ACC team to even be in the discussion as the majority of years the ACC champ has 2 or more losses.

VT going into the last weekend would have had a shot. who knows how the CCG goes if VT has a chance to make the playoff....

Also just looked at the final ratings in 2013 from the BCS...
1 Florida St
2 Auburn
3 Alabama
4 Michigan St
5 Stanford
6 Baylor

So you were WRONG...... Might want to look at facts before you post them......