(09-01-2015 09:58 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Look, Miko, there is absolutely something to what you are saying. If there wasn't then this would all be done already. It absolutely is difficult and it absolutely is complicated. In the end though, the money opportunity is just too large to pass up. It isn't the general concept that is up for debate at this point, it is the details.

If this conclusion is to hold, then out of necessity there will need to be a breakaway group within the P5 in order for that to happen in order to create a more homogeneous group. Even with the P5 as it stands today, the diversity is too great for there to be significantly more changes than we already see now. How big is the breakaway group - 32 teams? Eight divisions of 4 teams? Maybe not these exact numbers, but that's ultimately the end game if your vision is correct.

If that is your expectation, then I will tell you now that a lot of people will see NFL Lite. IMHO, that would be a chilling outcome for CFB if my opinion on this is correct. Almost no one chooses to watch a minor league sport when the pro version of the sport is readily available.

(09-02-2015 07:19 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-02-2015 06:04 AM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 09:48 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 09:41 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 07:16 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Just look at the post season scheduling issue coming up. New Year's Day 2017 falls on a Sunday. The Bowls don't want to take on the NFL that day but the CFP wants to. The bigger battle isn't within the NCAA. It is branching out now and challenging other entities. They want to build a product that doesn't have to bend a knee. That requires cooperation on a level never before seen within the NCAA.

To the doubters? They can keep on doubting as they have been continuously. They also have been continuously wrong when going against what I have been telling them.

CFB will lose that game. No sport in the U.S. will be able to take on the NFL. If CFB tries to take the NFL on regularly, what you'll end up seeing is CFB losing it's national appeal. No one will choose NFL lite over the real deal - especially in New England, Mid Atlantic, Chicago, Green Bay.

You can say that all you want but that is the battle they are being sold by ESPN and Fox. As the NFL takes more and more of it's content to it's own Network, that is leaving ESPN and Fox on the outside looking in more than ever in regards to the NFL.

What they have on their side of the argument is the 18 rating that the CFP championship game received.

I don't know that it's necessarily to directly go head to head with the NFL so much as it is about being more competitive in the entertainment market. Perhaps I didn't word my response correctly. Ultimately though, we're saying pretty much the same thing...This is more about strengthening CFB as a more national product than it currently is.

People are comparing apples and oranges though in a very simplistic and not too bright fashion. We are not talking about competing with regular season games against regular season games.

We are talking about the CFP competing with it's massive ratings against a week of the regular season in the NFL. It's not a fair comparison and it actually favors College Football.

Folks like Miko are jumping onto the generalization bandwagon so it doesn't matter how hard they try to sound smart about it, they are immediately going down the wrong path with a logical fallacy.

The irony in all of this is that when I "retired" from playing the game, I became somewhat naive. You're very good at the game. I'm not that good at playing it anymore, and because of that I missed what was going on with our exchange. I need to get better at not getting sucked into the tar pit.

Well done.

(09-02-2015 05:44 AM)VirginiaPirate Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 10:52 PM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 12:03 PM)gassman Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 06:28 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(08-31-2015 09:40 PM)gassman Wrote:  The only thing that creates movement is more money in the till.

The only way to do that is increase revenue or decrease costs.

With new softness in ESPN subscriptions being reported and consumers cord cutting and demanding new "skinny" non sports bundles I honestly believe we have reached the peak of sports rights fees going up.

if that is the case most of the movement we see in the future is going to be among the G5 and is going to involve regionalization to lower costs.

This will be resisted at first by many in the G5 such as ECU, UCONN, Cinci, etc but eventually falling revenues will force reality upon the G5 and they will be forced to cut costs to survive.

You will see waves of regionalization as broadcasters start paying a "non P5" rate that is homogenized across conference boundaries.

During this regionalization wave you will see a few stronger FCS teams move up into the G5 along lines of similar size, markets and fan support.

But all movement will make sense in ways to reduce costs and hopefully build more close regional rivalries that can pack stadiums on a yearly basis.

App and Charlotte are the perfect example of this.

They are a couple of hours apart and would pack their stadiums for this game every two years. There is more money to be had in this type of game than flying football and all the Olympics to Texas.

There are probably lots of situations like this all over the country.

Mark it. It will happen.

The problem that you have with your statement is that P5 schools do value some of the G5 and FCS schools more than you think. Might be long history or something like that?

The service academy are valued by all the P5 schools. The long history and prestiged in those schools.
BYU is like the Notre Dame of the west. Not on a larger scale, but they are similar.
Cincinnati, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, USF, SMU, Houston, Rice, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ohio U. Arkansas State, Colorado State, Boise State, San Diego State, Wyoming, UNLV, Fresno State, Hawaii, UNR, UTEP, and rising of Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington and UTSA could reach the million viewership ratings mark soon.
As long as the top G5 schools get an average of more than a million tv ratings, there would be money be made right there.
That is why many G5 schools are being looked at for P5 spots.

The problem with schools like in the Big 12 is that many of their schools overlapped each other, and can't be telling of a long run of a viewer average until they add no markets. People would tune in to see a rematch between Oklahoma and Boise State if Boise State becomes a member of the Big 12. If both teams play the same way like they did in the Fiesta Bowl? People will tune in every year.
East Carolina is earning more than Duke and Wake Forest right now in ticket sales. So, East Carolina could do even better in a P5, and be number 3 college and University in the state of North Carolina in football. They could be the number 1 football team better than all 4 of the ACC schools right now.

Unless a new P5 member adds $ to the TV contracts they will not expand.

Yes ECU could be the number 1 team in NC easily. If they had the TV money and the exposure against better schools but that is NEVER going to happen.

They are locked out of the party just like the rest of the G5.

The only G5 that gets included is going to be if a P5 school willingly drops out due to ethical reasons or if the B12 needs to add more to get a championship game.

That's it.

ECU is the currently the most successful team in NC right now notwithstanding the 'G5' status if you will. If you take into account what really matters: (1) on the field product and (2) fan support then ECU is currently the #1 football program in the state. ECU has consistently competed with the ACC teams for years and that won't stop for a variety of reasons. Most importantly it's because the football culture is too deep and the support too great to permit such blasphemy. That's something a startup program doesn't have. That's also the reason why some start up program's fans simply can't comprehend/refuse to acknowledge the importance of history and tradition.

ECU has been a player in 'major' CFB since the division 1 split in '78 and our current coach helped lead that '78 team to an Independence bowl victory that same year. ECU finished in the top 20 way back in '83, has finished ranked as high as #9, and was the only G5 program to crack the inaugural CFB Playoff poll last year. We've been around, we're still relevant, and we're not going anywhere so deal with it. There will always be a place for us whether it's as a member of the club one day or as an outside competitor that defies the odds. We fill a vital cog. ECU has not taken the easy way and continues to play tough non-conference schedules and regularly beats the P5 (4 in a row over the ACC right now). The BCS system attempted to thwart ECU's ability to compete but the Pirates are still a program on the rise. This stability and sustainability is yielded fruit from seeds sown years ago.

Tradition means so much in CFB for a reason. ECU consistently get's home and home series with teams like WVU, VT, UNC, NCSU, South Carolina, BYU, etc. directly because of tradition (relationships established long ago) and also due to the support provided by a loyal fan base (we carry our own weight). It's a standard that was set many years ago and at ECU it will simply not be tolerated for the program to fail to adequately compete with the ACC and other regional P5 teams in football no matter how much collusion exists and no matter how many bureaucratic methodologies, paradigms, and hegemonic systems are employed in an effort to marginalize ECU's status in CFB.

It's a numbers game and too many people care about ECU to allow the program to become uncompetitive. Even though we make much less in TV revenue than our ACC counterparts, ECU is making more than ever directly off of the football program and is getting more national exposure than ever before. I think that is a recipe that will allow us to flourish moving forward. Many of these same sentiments also ring true for other schools in the AAC and MWC.

Well said! Go Pirates !

Hey Pirate fans. That was not meant as a dig to ECU. I have the utmost respect for ECU and what they have done. That was a statement about the unfair reality that ECU is in which is locking them out of the big money and the big games. You guys (unfairly) will probably have to go undefeated to get a look at the playoff and even then the P5 would find a way to screw you. Until there is a more expansive playoff system that guarantees G5 access the entire system is rigged.

(09-02-2015 07:32 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(09-02-2015 07:19 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-02-2015 06:04 AM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 09:48 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 09:41 PM)miko33 Wrote:  CFB will lose that game. No sport in the U.S. will be able to take on the NFL. If CFB tries to take the NFL on regularly, what you'll end up seeing is CFB losing it's national appeal. No one will choose NFL lite over the real deal - especially in New England, Mid Atlantic, Chicago, Green Bay.

You can say that all you want but that is the battle they are being sold by ESPN and Fox. As the NFL takes more and more of it's content to it's own Network, that is leaving ESPN and Fox on the outside looking in more than ever in regards to the NFL.

What they have on their side of the argument is the 18 rating that the CFP championship game received.

I don't know that it's necessarily to directly go head to head with the NFL so much as it is about being more competitive in the entertainment market. Perhaps I didn't word my response correctly. Ultimately though, we're saying pretty much the same thing...This is more about strengthening CFB as a more national product than it currently is.

People are comparing apples and oranges though in a very simplistic and not too bright fashion. We are not talking about competing with regular season games against regular season games.

We are talking about the CFP competing with it's massive ratings against a week of the regular season in the NFL. It's not a fair comparison and it actually favors College Football.

Folks like Miko are jumping onto the generalization bandwagon so it doesn't matter how hard they try to sound smart about it, they are immediately going down the wrong path with a logical fallacy.

The irony in all of this is that when I "retired" from playing the game, I became somewhat naive. You're very good at the game. I'm not that good at playing it anymore, and because of that I missed what was going on with our exchange. I need to get better at not getting sucked into the tar pit.

Well done.

Once you check in, you can never leave.

Heinous, I frequent this board a lot but I've never read specifically your theory on the master plan to go to 64/65. Is there another thread/post where you lay out this? I'm interested in seeing it.

I personally can't fathom a situation where the major players (Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame) all agree to laying aside their personal interests for the good of all. But I do like a fascinating theory... :) Lay it on me!

(09-02-2015 08:16 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  Heinous, I frequent this board a lot but I've never read specifically your theory on the master plan to go to 64/65. Is there another thread/post where you lay out this? I'm interested in seeing it.

I personally can't fathom a situation where the major players (Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame) all agree to laying aside their personal interests for the good of all. But I do like a fascinating theory... :) Lay it on me!

I don't like to make things too easy for folks. If I did....I would have a blog and say a whole bunch of garbage in order to get hits and advertising dollars. I don't need it so I don't do it. Most of it I have posted within threads. The stalwarts around here know most of it. Omni has a very good handle on it as does JR. I am sure some others do as well but I don't poll.


For me, it has been obvious for quite some time that there has been an agenda behind realignment of latter years. Some conferences have been successful at it while others have just tried to keep up. The PAC seriously bumbled it's attempt by going all in. They should have gone The Big Ten route and kept their talks quiet. That is why I wonder if Texas all along was less interested in being in the PAC and was actually more interested in destabilizing The Big 12.

We found out from it that the PAC wanted to move into the Central Time Zone. They tried to get ahead of everyone because they knew head to head, they couldn't compete as well against the likes of The Big Ten and The SEC for various reasons that you probably already know.

What do I see happening? Well, I will give you the run down and then we can go further into it if you like but the run down alone is pretty lengthy.

What I foresee happening first is realignment. I do think that it is very likely to happen after the football season before April when the NCAA rules committee meets about divisional rule changes. After that happens then I do believe that the AAC will be able to pull nationally.

The Big Ten
East
Ohio State
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers

Central
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue

North
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois

West
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Iowa
Kansas


The SEC
East
Auburn
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina

Central
Alabama
Ole Miss
Miss State
Vandy

West
LSU
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Oklahoma State

North
Tennessee
Missouri
West Virginia
Kentucky


The PAC
West
USC
UCLA
Stanford
California

North
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State

South
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Colorado

East
TCU
Texas Tech
Iowa State
Kansas State


The ACC
South
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Miami

Central
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Virginia Tech
Virginia

North
Louisville
Pitt
Syracuse
UConn

West
Baylor
Wake Forest
Boston College
Duke

Now, I kept the same division names for the ACC but in reality the geographical names mean much less here. I did have a plan in mind with these placements, you should be able to see what that is. There are some commonalities within each division. The ACC is the most difficult conference to divide up. That has always been the case and will always be the case.


So, you take the winner of each division and you place them in a four team conference tournament. Each division within each conference has it's own purpose. Take for instance the "North" division in the SEC. It's creation will help those four teams with what is a recruiting disadvantage thanks to their geographical locations within the SEC. By having their own division and thus direct route to the SEC Tournament, that will help offset that difficulty to some degree.

The CFP expands to six teams which will include each of the four conference champions, a wild card and the Cinderella champion of the newly expanded AAC. It is cut and dry, everyone knows what to expect and thus general sports fans understand better and begin following in larger numbers.


What does the AAC become? I see it becoming a 20 team conference with four divisions of five teams each. They will be heavily geographic in nature considering this will truly become an American Athletic Conference that covers Coast to Coast. They will have a 7 game conference season which allows for four games in their close geographic division and then just one game against each other division. That leads to a minimal amount of travel and games against other divisions but perfectly combines the SoS's of every team together.


The AAC
East
ECU
UCF
USF
ODU
Memphis

North
Temple
Cincinnati
Marshall
Northern Illinois
Buffalo

South
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
Tulane
ULL

West
Boise State
BYU
Colorado State
San Diego State
Fresno State/San Jose State


I am sure others will favor differing line ups with this conference but the premise is sound. It is a regional conference that combines the strengths of most of the best G5 programs while at the same time allowing them more scheduling freedom than they have currently with 5 ooc match ups each season to sign. They will make more money through ooc match ups and they will make more on tv contracts than ever before as well.

Feel free to question further, I doubt there is a question that I havn't already fielded but perhaps you shall surprise me.

Edit: In regards to Notre Dame and Texas. Yes they will only have 12 games a season but that is a selling point as well to some recruits that wont want to play as many games in a season. They have their strong brands to be able to slip into the Wild Card slot of the CFP that I mentioned earlier so they don't really need a conference tournament to get themselves in. A conference tournament could help boost a team into the CFP or it could end up costing a team a shot. It's not a guarantee for an individual team, its just a guarantee for the conference. Notre Dame and Texas likely believe they don't need that. They both have very strong independent streaks in them.

Interesting ^^^

(09-02-2015 03:39 PM)gassman Wrote:  

(09-02-2015 05:44 AM)VirginiaPirate Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 10:52 PM)Indiana Bones Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 12:03 PM)gassman Wrote:  

(09-01-2015 06:28 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  The problem that you have with your statement is that P5 schools do value some of the G5 and FCS schools more than you think. Might be long history or something like that?

The service academy are valued by all the P5 schools. The long history and prestiged in those schools.
BYU is like the Notre Dame of the west. Not on a larger scale, but they are similar.
Cincinnati, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, USF, SMU, Houston, Rice, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Ohio U. Arkansas State, Colorado State, Boise State, San Diego State, Wyoming, UNLV, Fresno State, Hawaii, UNR, UTEP, and rising of Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, North Dakota State, Eastern Washington and UTSA could reach the million viewership ratings mark soon.
As long as the top G5 schools get an average of more than a million tv ratings, there would be money be made right there.
That is why many G5 schools are being looked at for P5 spots.

The problem with schools like in the Big 12 is that many of their schools overlapped each other, and can't be telling of a long run of a viewer average until they add no markets. People would tune in to see a rematch between Oklahoma and Boise State if Boise State becomes a member of the Big 12. If both teams play the same way like they did in the Fiesta Bowl? People will tune in every year.
East Carolina is earning more than Duke and Wake Forest right now in ticket sales. So, East Carolina could do even better in a P5, and be number 3 college and University in the state of North Carolina in football. They could be the number 1 football team better than all 4 of the ACC schools right now.

Unless a new P5 member adds $ to the TV contracts they will not expand.

Yes ECU could be the number 1 team in NC easily. If they had the TV money and the exposure against better schools but that is NEVER going to happen.

They are locked out of the party just like the rest of the G5.

The only G5 that gets included is going to be if a P5 school willingly drops out due to ethical reasons or if the B12 needs to add more to get a championship game.

That's it.

ECU is the currently the most successful team in NC right now notwithstanding the 'G5' status if you will. If you take into account what really matters: (1) on the field product and (2) fan support then ECU is currently the #1 football program in the state. ECU has consistently competed with the ACC teams for years and that won't stop for a variety of reasons. Most importantly it's because the football culture is too deep and the support too great to permit such blasphemy. That's something a startup program doesn't have. That's also the reason why some start up program's fans simply can't comprehend/refuse to acknowledge the importance of history and tradition.

ECU has been a player in 'major' CFB since the division 1 split in '78 and our current coach helped lead that '78 team to an Independence bowl victory that same year. ECU finished in the top 20 way back in '83, has finished ranked as high as #9, and was the only G5 program to crack the inaugural CFB Playoff poll last year. We've been around, we're still relevant, and we're not going anywhere so deal with it. There will always be a place for us whether it's as a member of the club one day or as an outside competitor that defies the odds. We fill a vital cog. ECU has not taken the easy way and continues to play tough non-conference schedules and regularly beats the P5 (4 in a row over the ACC right now). The BCS system attempted to thwart ECU's ability to compete but the Pirates are still a program on the rise. This stability and sustainability is yielded fruit from seeds sown years ago.

Tradition means so much in CFB for a reason. ECU consistently get's home and home series with teams like WVU, VT, UNC, NCSU, South Carolina, BYU, etc. directly because of tradition (relationships established long ago) and also due to the support provided by a loyal fan base (we carry our own weight). It's a standard that was set many years ago and at ECU it will simply not be tolerated for the program to fail to adequately compete with the ACC and other regional P5 teams in football no matter how much collusion exists and no matter how many bureaucratic methodologies, paradigms, and hegemonic systems are employed in an effort to marginalize ECU's status in CFB.

It's a numbers game and too many people care about ECU to allow the program to become uncompetitive. Even though we make much less in TV revenue than our ACC counterparts, ECU is making more than ever directly off of the football program and is getting more national exposure than ever before. I think that is a recipe that will allow us to flourish moving forward. Many of these same sentiments also ring true for other schools in the AAC and MWC.

Well said! Go Pirates !

Hey Pirate fans. That was not meant as a dig to ECU. I have the utmost respect for ECU and what they have done. That was a statement about the unfair reality that ECU is in which is locking them out of the big money and the big games. You guys (unfairly) will probably have to go undefeated to get a look at the playoff and even then the P5 would find a way to screw you. Until there is a more expansive playoff system that guarantees G5 access the entire system is rigged.

For all that history ECU lacks big wins and championships. Here is he last 10 years. It's just not that impressive. A few big bowl wins and conference championships would help more than anything right now.


Season Coach Conference Season results Bowl result Final ranking
Conference finish Wins Losses Ties[16] AP Poll[17] Coaches Poll[18]
2005 Skip Holtz Conference USA East 4 5 6 — — —
2006 Skip Holtz Conference USA East 2 7 6 Lost Papajohns.com Bowl vs. South Florida 24–7 — —
2007 Skip Holtz Conference USA East 2 8 5 Won Hawai'i Bowl vs. Boise State 41–38 — —
2008 Skip Holtz Conference USA East 1 9 5 Lost Liberty Bowl vs. Kentucky 19–25 — —
2009 Skip Holtz Conference USA East 1 9 5 Lost Liberty Bowl vs. Arkansas17–20 OT — —
2010 Ruffin McNeill Conference USA East 2 6 6 Lost Military Bowl vs. Maryland 51–20 — —
2011 Ruffin McNeill Conference USA East 3 5 7 — — —
2012 Ruffin McNeill Conference USA East 2 8 5 Lost New Orleans Bowl vs. Louisiana-Lafayette 43–34 — —
2013 Ruffin McNeill Conference USA East 2 10 3 Won Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl vs. Ohio 37-20 — —
2014 Ruffin McNeill American Athletic Conference 4 8 5 Lost Birmingham Bowl vs. Florida 28-20 — —

(09-02-2015 09:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  The Big Ten
East
Ohio State
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers

Central
Michigan
Michigan State
Indiana
Purdue

North
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois

West
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Iowa
Kansas


The SEC
East
Auburn
Georgia
Florida
South Carolina

Central
Alabama
Ole Miss
Miss State
Vandy

West
LSU
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Oklahoma State

North
Tennessee
Missouri
West Virginia
Kentucky


The PAC
West
USC
UCLA
Stanford
California

North
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State

South
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Colorado

East
TCU
Texas Tech
Iowa State
Kansas State


The ACC
South
Florida State
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Miami

Central
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Virginia Tech
Virginia

North
Louisville
Pitt
Syracuse
UConn

West
Baylor
Wake Forest
Boston College
Duke

Now, I kept the same division names for the ACC but in reality the geographical names mean much less here. I did have a plan in mind with these placements, you should be able to see what that is. There are some commonalities within each division. The ACC is the most difficult conference to divide up. That has always been the case and will always be the case.


So, you take the winner of each division and you place them in a four team conference tournament. Each division within each conference has it's own purpose. Take for instance the "North" division in the SEC. It's creation will help those four teams with what is a recruiting disadvantage thanks to their geographical locations within the SEC. By having their own division and thus direct route to the SEC Tournament, that will help offset that difficulty to some degree.

The CFP expands to six teams which will include each of the four conference champions, a wild card and the Cinderella champion of the newly expanded AAC. It is cut and dry, everyone knows what to expect and thus general sports fans understand better and begin following in larger numbers.


What does the AAC become? I see it becoming a 20 team conference with four divisions of five teams each. They will be heavily geographic in nature considering this will truly become an American Athletic Conference that covers Coast to Coast. They will have a 7 game conference season which allows for four games in their close geographic division and then just one game against each other division. That leads to a minimal amount of travel and games against other divisions but perfectly combines the SoS's of every team together.


The AAC
East
ECU
UCF
USF
ODU
Memphis

North
Temple
Cincinnati
Marshall
Northern Illinois
Buffalo

South
Houston
SMU
Tulsa
Tulane
ULL

West
Boise State
BYU
Colorado State
San Diego State
Fresno State/San Jose State


I am sure others will favor differing line ups with this conference but the premise is sound. It is a regional conference that combines the strengths of most of the best G5 programs while at the same time allowing them more scheduling freedom than they have currently with 5 ooc match ups each season to sign. They will make more money through ooc match ups and they will make more on tv contracts than ever before as well.

Feel free to question further, I doubt there is a question that I havn't already fielded but perhaps you shall surprise me.

Edit: In regards to Notre Dame and Texas. Yes they will only have 12 games a season but that is a selling point as well to some recruits that wont want to play as many games in a season. They have their strong brands to be able to slip into the Wild Card slot of the CFP that I mentioned earlier so they don't really need a conference tournament to get themselves in. A conference tournament could help boost a team into the CFP or it could end up costing a team a shot. It's not a guarantee for an individual team, its just a guarantee for the conference. Notre Dame and Texas likely believe they don't need that. They both have very strong independent streaks in them.

It's better than a lot that I've seen. I really like the "6 team" CFP prediction. I too think that might be next instead of jumping right to 8. A few problems...

1. Does the Pac-12 want in the Central Time Zone so badly that they'd add those four Tier 3/4 programs?!?! Besides TCU not fitting the Pac-12's cultural profile, there just are no blue blood football or basketball schools...nor any academic powerhouses. I think jettisoning those four schools to purgatory (i.e. the AAC) is FAAAARRRR more likely than the Pac-12 becoming a charity case.

2. Baylor as the sole "western" branch of the ACC? Hmm...not sure. Partner them with TCU or OkSt (if the SEC doesn't take them) and you might have a winner (leaving UConn out in the cold).

3. I love your SEC and Big Ten additions though. I feel they are FULLY plausible. And I love the "conference semifinals" idea. And I'm fine with Texas and ND going independent. And I love the attempt to make the CFB playoff make simplistic sense.

P4 conferences get bid.
AAC or ND or Texas gets bid.
One at-large bid.

Again, I just think you have 3 16-team conferences, 1 12-team conference, and a playoff committee that chooses AAC/ND/Texas and at-large bid...plus chooses playoff/bowl match-ups. Let the Pac-12 have a simple conference championship game rather than a conference "final 4." Their fans don't care much about traveling to see good football anyway. They'll be fine with it.

(09-02-2015 10:11 PM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  It's better than a lot that I've seen. I really like the "6 team" CFP prediction. I too think that might be next instead of jumping right to 8. A few problems...

1. Does the Pac-12 want in the Central Time Zone so badly that they'd add those four Tier 3/4 programs?!?! Besides TCU not fitting the Pac-12's cultural profile, there just are no blue blood football or basketball schools...nor any academic powerhouses. I think jettisoning those four schools to purgatory (i.e. the AAC) is FAAAARRRR more likely than the Pac-12 becoming a charity case.

2. Baylor as the sole "western" branch of the ACC? Hmm...not sure. Partner them with TCU or OkSt (if the SEC doesn't take them) and you might have a winner (leaving UConn out in the cold).

3. I love your SEC and Big Ten additions though. I feel they are FULLY plausible. And I love the "conference semifinals" idea. And I'm fine with Texas and ND going independent. And I love the attempt to make the CFB playoff make simplistic sense.

P4 conferences get bid.
AAC or ND or Texas gets bid.
One at-large bid.

Again, I just think you have 3 16-team conferences, 1 12-team conference, and a playoff committee that chooses AAC/ND/Texas and at-large bid...plus chooses playoff/bowl match-ups. Let the Pac-12 have a simple conference championship game rather than a conference "final 4." Their fans don't care much about traveling to see good football anyway. They'll be fine with it.

1. Yes, I think the PAC wants into the Central Time Zone badly. No one gets anything anytime soon if they don't take a compromise. It is all or nothing and they already lost out at trying to get some of the bigger names. Those four schools actually have greater value with the PAC than with any other conference and the Networks know that better than anyone else. They pay out the money therefore they will be inevitably listened to. I get it about the cultural thing but it is my opinion that while culture is sometimes a big deal, it is also something that can be set aside. I don't think anyone would say that it appears as if TCU's success will not continue. They have a coach that has shown he intends to stay for quite some time. They have a shiny new stadium. They are located in the best market in the country in terms of recruiting and they already have built in history with a certain school named Utah that doesn't really have many strong connections yet in The PAC. TCU is a strong performing anchor for that new East division. You can count on them being in that PAC Tournament many times.

TCU and Texas Tech brings the PAC strongly into Texas. Iowa State has a history of being competitive, just ask Oklahoma State. Kansas State is competitive right now and while some folks say they will be mediocre again as soon as Snyder is gone, there is no reason why that has to be absolutely true.

Those four locations provide Central Time Zone locations for programs like USC, UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State and Stanford to be showcased at the Noon Eastern kick off time slot WITHOUT it having to be an ooc away game that brings no money to the PAC through it's tv contracts. We are talking 90 brand new tv slots that the PAC could potentially fill with this move. That is why TCU, TTU, ISU and KSU provide more value for the PAC than they do any of the other three major conferences.


2. Baylor comes with Texas. Is it awkward? Sure it is but you notice I put them in a division with three other private schools that have Missionary colleges within them? That similarity can be exploited. The ACC has always had awkward divisions and it will continue to but this set up is much better than what they have now. Baylor is willing to spend the money. They have a brand new Stadium. They have a resume of strong success in football and both men's and women's basketball. They fit in very well with what the ACC is. They definitely fit in with the ACC more so than any of the other three conferences. I used to have TCU going with them instead of UConn getting in but the PAC needs something and TCU looks to be that competitive anchor. UConn helps ESPN make The State of Connecticut happy. That has to be worth an ACC Network.

I see it as five conference champions getting in and then one wild card at large. Yes, I think the AAC under this set up will be just strong enough to yearly provide a worthy Cinderella challenger. People LOVE a Cinderella. It will boost ratings more than some here realize.

I've seen a few people on here now say that they can't see conferences putting the bigger picture above their own desires, and I disagree. For one, I don't think it's going to entirely be up to them. I think there's going to be a lot of building pressure from the networks to move in this direction. That being said, I think by dipping their toe in the water with this current four team playoffs, people are waking up and realizing precisely how much money they've been leaving on the table before and they're going to want a better taste of that. Moving to a P4/CCG=8 model is, as best as I can figure, not only what's best for the Networks but what would be best for the conferences as well.

I've also seen elsewhere that the federal research dollars that these schools share (particularly the CIC-dominant Big Ten) far surpasses the TV dollars for piddly football. So, for the Pac-12 to add 4 academic lightweights simply to get a noon kickoff is really implausible. Why can't they stay at 12? Heinous is already allowing the AAC to have more than 16...why do the Power 5 all need 16?

I disagree about the automatic bid for the AAC strongly. I didn't know that was in your proposal. You're saying--logically--that Michigan State has to go through UM, OSU, and PSU (plus some Western powers...like Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oklahoma?) to get to the CFP Top 6 playoff...but Tulsa only has to make it through it's FAR FAR easier schedule (kind of like Marshall did last year) and they get a spot.

And your logic? "Fans love a Cinderella school." Huh? You gotta re-think that one.

Last year, #20 Boise State would have joined FSU, Oregon, Alabama, OSU, and Baylor. That's too high of a price for "access."

The G5's going to be left out of the next incarnation of the CFP. I don't say this to be rude or to troll...but it's the truth. There's little incentive to be more inclusive. I think everyone that's in a power conference now is going to end up in the P4, and there may be one or two call ups to round out numbers if necessary...but the G5's going to end up with their own thing in the end, and I honestly feel that way. In fact, I fully believe the end game is going to be the Power Conferences doing their own thing completely including a new basketball tournament amongst themselves.

(09-03-2015 06:26 AM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  The G5's going to be left out of the next incarnation of the CFP. I don't say this to be rude or to troll...but it's the truth. There's little incentive to be more inclusive. I think everyone that's in a power conference now is going to end up in the P4, and there may be one or two call ups to round out numbers if necessary...but the G5's going to end up with their own thing in the end, and I honestly feel that way. In fact, I fully believe the end game is going to be the Power Conferences doing their own thing completely including a new basketball tournament amongst themselves.

We are not in the current one. There is very little chance any G5 school, even an undefeated one has a shot.

(09-03-2015 06:11 AM)allthatyoucantleavebehind Wrote:  I've also seen elsewhere that the federal research dollars that these schools share (particularly the CIC-dominant Big Ten) far surpasses the TV dollars for piddly football. So, for the Pac-12 to add 4 academic lightweights simply to get a noon kickoff is really implausible. Why can't they stay at 12? Heinous is already allowing the AAC to have more than 16...why do the Power 5 all need 16?

I disagree about the automatic bid for the AAC strongly. I didn't know that was in your proposal. You're saying--logically--that Michigan State has to go through UM, OSU, and PSU (plus some Western powers...like Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oklahoma?) to get to the CFP Top 6 playoff...but Tulsa only has to make it through it's FAR FAR easier schedule (kind of like Marshall did last year) and they get a spot.

And your logic? "Fans love a Cinderella school." Huh? You gotta re-think that one.

Last year, #20 Boise State would have joined FSU, Oregon, Alabama, OSU, and Baylor. That's too high of a price for "access."

You are not paying attention to the 5 ooc games I am saying the AAC will have. Who do you think they will be mainly playing during those? As SoS becomes more and more necessary, it will be this expanded AAC with their 100 ooc games that the Power Conferences will turn to for a lot of their ooc scheduling. So now your scheduling issue becomes moot as these AAC schools have strong enough schedules across the board.

I don't have to re-think a *** **** thing, you simply have to pay attention to the whole picture rather than wearing horse blinders and only looking at tidbits. Do I truly have to illustrate to you a potential schedule of an AAC school in that situation? Or are you capable yourself of doing that?

(09-03-2015 06:26 AM)Rabbit_in_Red Wrote:  The G5's going to be left out of the next incarnation of the CFP. I don't say this to be rude or to troll...but it's the truth. There's little incentive to be more inclusive. I think everyone that's in a power conference now is going to end up in the P4, and there may be one or two call ups to round out numbers if necessary...but the G5's going to end up with their own thing in the end, and I honestly feel that way. In fact, I fully believe the end game is going to be the Power Conferences doing their own thing completely including a new basketball tournament amongst themselves.

In other words:

PAC 12
SEC 14 teams
Big 14 teams
ACC 14 teams (15 with Notre Dame)

That leaves room for nine so which Big 12 team gets left behind? my guess is Iowa State.

(09-03-2015 07:42 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  You are not paying attention to the 5 ooc games I am saying the AAC will have. Who do you think they will be mainly playing during those? As SoS becomes more and more necessary, it will be this expanded AAC with their 100 ooc games that the Power Conferences will turn to for a lot of their ooc scheduling. So now your scheduling issue becomes moot as these AAC schools have strong enough schedules across the board.

I don't have to re-think a *** **** thing, you simply have to pay attention to the whole picture rather than wearing horse blinders and only looking at tidbits. Do I truly have to illustrate to you a potential schedule of an AAC school in that situation? Or are you capable yourself of doing that?

As strength of schedule becomes more and more necessary, the Power Conferences will turn to each other rather than the AAC and other G5 Conferences. Even the weaker Power teams have better players than most of the G5 schools....

I see a OOC schedule looking like this; 2 P5 schools & 1 G5 school.

(09-02-2015 09:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  What I foresee happening first is realignment. I do think that it is very likely to happen after the football season before April when the NCAA rules committee meets about divisional rule changes. After that happens then I do believe that the AAC will be able to pull nationally.

He1nousONe - I've pieced a lot of your plan together from your comments over the last several months. Nice to see it all in one spot. Thank you!

My $.02 - fastforwarding to the time when Grants of Rights are minor issues or non-issues.

SEC

WVU and Oklahoma St. are likely on the SEC's second-level backup list. Not that it couldn't happen, especially when the TV partners get involved with the master plan. But, Commissioner Sankey's recent expansion criteria the SEC reveals several options that would have to fall through before WVU and Oklahoma St. receive an invitation.

http://www.sportsdaynow.com/greg-sankeys...-comments/

Plan 1a - OKlahoma, Kansas
Plan 1b - UNC/Duke/Virginia

(not sure which is first, given Sankey's statement that he had a recent productive conversation with Oklahoma's President Boren...and that they will continue to talk.)

After that, you start to look at the back-up plans. IMO, the SEC pursues Florida State and Clemson before WVU and Oklahoma St. Virginia Tech, NC State, and Pitt (AAU) are also in the mix.

Big Ten

Delaney salivates over Virginia and North Carolina. With the Maryland-ACC settlement equalling a mere $31 million, I wouldn't overlook UNC/Duke/Virginia to the B1G within the next couple of years. $31M might be significantly less than one year's revenue under the new B1G media deal. And, don't write off Georgia Tech or even Vanderbilt - remember the B1G pulling Maryland from the ACC was quite the surprise.

But, Kansas and Oklahoma to the B1G isn't a bad call by any stretch.

Texas

It's doubtful that Texas flees to the ACC with just one regional mate. It's one thing to take some OOC and Olympic sports road games to the East Coast; it's an entirely different scenario to take all of those road games to the East Coast.

And, with the B1G and SEC desires for UNC/Duke/Virginia, Texas may decide that affiliating with the expanded B1G or SEC - along with Oklahoma and Kansas (and Nebraska OR A&M and Arkansas) is the better path.

And, if UNC/Duke/Virginia and Texas made a move to the B1G, don't count Notre Dame out of the B1G mix.

OR, the (arguably) depleted ACC could be the perfect home for Texas and some Central timezone friends.

...and Baylor probably isn't at the top of Texas' list. I would put Texas Tech (state school), TCU (DFW), and perhaps even Houston (state school) ahead of Baylor.

ACC/Big 12/PAC
Pre-mega alignment, the Big 12 will include Cincinnati and BYU as part of the conference. If the SEC and B1G execute as desired, the PAC will consider to pick up some Big 12 pieces for content and to get into Texas and the Central timezone. The ACC and Big 12 leftovers will unite - with some call-ups.

The American.
If Marshall, ODU, ULL, and NIU make the list, Navy and Air Force aren't going anywhere. So, Navy and Air Force will be instrumental pieces in the nationwide puzzle. If both are in, I believe Army makes the list too. It will actually be fairly nice conference, just no blue bloods to put it on the 'power' level. But the military trifecta and some other good teams will help the AAC survive into Division 4 when it comes.

Personally, in the end I'm putting my money on Delaney.

The Big Ten
East
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan
Michigan State
Rutgers
Notre Dame

North
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern
Illinois
Indiana
Purdue

West
Nebraska
Iowa
Texas
Oklahoma
Kansas
Missouri

South
Maryland
Virginia
UNC
Duke
Georgia Tech
Vanderbilt

The SEC
South
Alabama
Auburn
Georgia
Florida
Tennessee
South Carolina

East
Kentucky
Florida State
Clemson
NC State
Virginia Tech
Pitt

West
LSU
Ole Miss
Miss State
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Oklahoma State

The PAC
West
USC
UCLA
Stanford
California

North
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State

South
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Colorado

East
TCU
Texas Tech
Kansas State
BYU

The Big 12/ACC
East
Miami
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Boston College
UCF
UConn
USF

West
Louisville
West Virginia
Iowa State
Baylor
Cincinnati
Houston
Memphis


The American
East
ECU
Temple
Army
Marshall
Buffalo
ODU/UMass

Central
Navy
SMU
Tulsa
Tulane
Rice
Northern Illinois

West
Air Force
Boise State
San Diego State
Colorado State
New Mexico
Fresno State/UNLV

(08-31-2015 12:03 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  [University of] New Orleans is supposed to be starting a football team this year, but they have delayed it. New Orleans and Tulane both are fighting for the same type of donations for football.

I've known a lot of good people who went to UNO, but I don't see any possible way for them to afford FBS or even FCS football. I really doubt that ever happens.