I think the "big" G5 realignment will happen, but I am not sure what will kick it off. When it does, the G5-P5 gap will be larger than it is today, and insurmountable. This will move us leftovers towards reality. The drivers will be:

1. Budget - where does the money come from, and is it sustainable without TV dollars (see ECU). Financial outliers will not be accepted.
2. Broadband availability - Streaming is our future, and having the infrastructure backbone in place will separate the haves from have nots. Soon this may mean 5G. It definitely does not mean 20 MB local internet service.
3. Ease of travel - for conferences that can afford to fly, they are not going to get on a bus for two hours once they land. For teams that do not fly, what is the bus travel like--distance, weather, etc? This ties into keeping the kids in class.
4. Regionality - we always knew it was important, but we ignored it and are paying the price. Will go back to a plan that allows for rivalries.
5. Peer institutions - this will not be a primary driver, but a goal
   

Because success for G5 teams is cyclical and tied to the coach, the most desirable programs to a conference will not be based on current wins, but the ability to pay to replace a coach. Winning coaches leave us. It is a fact.

Until this happens we would all go to the AAC.

(06-05-2019 03:06 PM)Nugget49er Wrote:  I think the "big" G5 realignment will happen, but I am not sure what will kick it off. When it does, the G5-P5 gap will be larger than it is today, and insurmountable. This will move us leftovers towards reality. The drivers will be:

1. Budget - where does the money come from, and is it sustainable without TV dollars (see ECU). Financial outliers will not be accepted.
2. Broadband availability - Streaming is our future, and having the infrastructure backbone in place will separate the haves from have nots. Soon this may mean 5G. It definitely does not mean 20 MB local internet service.
3. Ease of travel - for conferences that can afford to fly, they are not going to get on a bus for two hours once they land. For teams that do not fly, what is the bus travel like--distance, weather, etc? This ties into keeping the kids in class.
4. Regionality - we always knew it was important, but we ignored it and are paying the price. Will go back to a plan that allows for rivalries.
5. Peer institutions - this will not be a primary driver, but a goal
   

Because success for G5 teams is cyclical and tied to the coach, the most desirable programs to a conference will not be based on current wins, but the ability to pay to replace a coach. Winning coaches leave us. It is a fact.

Until this happens we would all go to the AAC.

Houston didn't drop $4 million a year on Holgorsen just to give up and accept irrelevance. There are a few programs among the G5 (Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, Memphis, UCF, USF, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, ...) that value playing the best programs they can over settling for easy regional games. I believe those better G5 programs (between 8-12 programs) will eventually reform into a conference that might compete with P5s for a spot in the playoffs. Some think the AAC could do it, but even after 2 undefeated seasons, UCF didn't get a spot, due to strength of schedule. The AAC's line-up seems to carry too much dead weight.

(06-05-2019 03:30 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Houston didn't drop $4 million a year on Holgorsen just to give up and accept irrelevance. There are a few programs among the G5 (Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, Memphis, UCF, USF, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, ...) that value playing the best programs they can over settling for easy regional games. I believe those better G5 programs (between 8-12 programs) will eventually reform into a conference that might compete with P5s for a spot in the playoffs. Some think the AAC could do it, but even after 2 undefeated seasons, UCF didn't get a spot, due to strength of schedule. The AAC's line-up seems to carry too much dead weight.

Curious why anyone (and this is something I've seen many times) believes the national college writers will suddenly anoint a brand new conference with enough respect to be in the national conversation. Regardless of the membership it would take two decades for writers to respect a new league. I don't have any delusions my school will ever be in the AAC or better. TCU got that golden ticket and I just don't see any other school being invited to join the P5 ranks. I want the Sunbelt (and for that matter every G5 conference) to be as good as we can be, to get a team or two ranked every year and to beat the P5s when we can.

(06-05-2019 04:12 PM)APPdiesel Wrote:  

(06-05-2019 03:30 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Houston didn't drop $4 million a year on Holgorsen just to give up and accept irrelevance. There are a few programs among the G5 (Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, Memphis, UCF, USF, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, ...) that value playing the best programs they can over settling for easy regional games. I believe those better G5 programs (between 8-12 programs) will eventually reform into a conference that might compete with P5s for a spot in the playoffs. Some think the AAC could do it, but even after 2 undefeated seasons, UCF didn't get a spot, due to strength of schedule. The AAC's line-up seems to carry too much dead weight.

Curious why anyone (and this is something I've seen many times) believes the national college writers will suddenly anoint a brand new conference with enough respect to be in the national conversation. Regardless of the membership it would take two decades for writers to respect a new league. I don't have any delusions my school will ever be in the AAC or better. TCU got that golden ticket and I just don't see any other school being invited to join the P5 ranks. I want the Sunbelt (and for that matter every G5 conference) to be as good as we can be, to get a team or two ranked every year and to beat the P5s when we can.

It isn't about forming a new P5 conference. That will not happen. Those teams will form an outsider conference made up of the best options from the G5. And, they will not need to develop respect from national writers either. These are a collection of G5 programs that have already gained a higher level of respect than the rest of the G5, and proven they have the funds to compete on the field with power programs. No, they won't earn a playoff spot as often as the P5 conferences, but they will be able to get one, which is something the current AAC line-up as well as the other G5 conferences will never be able to produce.

(06-05-2019 04:24 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Those teams will form an outsider conference made up of the best options from the G5.

This conference will not have basketball autobids to the NCAA and NIT tournaments, and nobody would go to bat to help them get them. That is an enormous thing to walk away from.

(07-01-2015 04:02 PM)USM@FTL Wrote:  Basketball, and a couple of million $ in extra revenue, make the AAC SLIGHTLY more attractive than C-USA.

a couple of million $ in extra revenue would come in quite handy for most of us, wouldn’t it?

Not to mention, it’s going to a bit more than just “a couple of million” when the new contract kicks in.

Quote:If Cincy and UConn aren't around, any desire to jump disappears.

If the Aack! gets raided by the big12, it’s probably Cincinnati and Houston that would go first, followed by the Florida twins UCF and USF.

(06-05-2019 07:19 PM)Nugget49er Wrote:  

(06-05-2019 04:24 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Those teams will form an outsider conference made up of the best options from the G5.

This conference will not have basketball autobids to the NCAA and NIT tournaments, and nobody would go to bat to help them get them. That is an enormous thing to walk away from.

Since we are talking about a new conference with Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis, and San Diego St., I think the NCAA would award them an autobid. Those four programs alone have 92 NCAA Tournament appearances and 2 national titles between them.

But, just to clarify, this new conference would lay the groundwork for their formation in the years leading up to renewing bowl contracts, and playoff money negotiations. So, it might be during the next cycle, or the one after that (10 to 20 years from now).

Funny how things age.

Don’t see Houston going anywhere. That market is already covered by the plethora of Texas teams. They’d go for Memphis and Cincinnati.

Chuck Landon is incapable of writing a paragraph that has more than 1 sentence.

(06-06-2019 07:51 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  Chuck Landon is incapable of writing a paragraph that has more than 1 sentence.

The one thing that doesn't change through the years. Chuck Landon still sucks.

(06-06-2019 07:09 AM)EagNBran Wrote:  Don’t see Houston going anywhere. That market is already covered by the plethora of Texas teams. They’d go for Memphis and Cincinnati.

Have we not learned our lesson on tv markets?

(06-06-2019 08:41 AM)cmett003 Wrote:  

(06-06-2019 07:09 AM)EagNBran Wrote:  Don’t see Houston going anywhere. That market is already covered by the plethora of Texas teams. They’d go for Memphis and Cincinnati.

Have we not learned our lesson on tv markets?

I think TV markets at the P5 level are still actually a relevant consideration. At our level, not so much.

Absolutely none of us are going anywhere. If money didn't matter, USM and Marshall would have been called up before some that were called up, but it does matter. What budget would it take to be a middle to low AAC program? A whole lot more than most of us can afford. It's a sad truth. Does that mean that X team from CUSA can't compete in the two major sports, absolutely not, we have proven this on the court, on the field. To do it each year and stay relevant, that is the key to a higher budget, more flexibility and coach retention. Mturn is correct, TV markets don't matter as a G5, it never did, which has already proven itself over and over again with our crap TV contracts. Anyone that says they do matter isn't paying attention.

Too many of my Marshall brothers were too easily persuaded that Chuckie was right to be dismissive of pursuing AAC membership back in 2013 or so, when all the musical chairs with Boise State and the Big East was going on.

Not that any of us could have done anything about it, but it makes it a whole lot easier on an athletic director to settle when his fan base is so predisposed to settle. I'm generally a Hamrick fan, but I've always been suspicious that, at the top of the deficit side of his ledger, was a failing to intensively pursue for Marshall a seat at the AAC table... under the guise that we were just completely overmatched in CUSA 2.0 football, and it had nothing to do with the head coach who otherwise many, even soe of his advocates, had previously admitted they considered him to be over his head in Huntington.

(06-05-2019 07:19 PM)Nugget49er Wrote:  

(06-05-2019 04:24 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Those teams will form an outsider conference made up of the best options from the G5.

This conference will not have basketball autobids to the NCAA and NIT tournaments, and nobody would go to bat to help them get them. That is an enormous thing to walk away from.

The NCAA almost always grants a waiver in regards to automatic bids to new conferences comprised of significant teams.

It happened when the Great Midwest was formed and more recently, as another example: The Big East and the American both had auto-bids the first year after their split, even though the one kept the existing bid and was a "new" conference.

This must be an old article. I don’t recall seeing or reading this recently. Baloney! We know we don’t have the money to move anywhere. We’d be better served trying to compete better in CUSA and OOC schedules.

(06-06-2019 10:53 AM)beefcake0520 Wrote:  Absolutely none of us are going anywhere. If money didn't matter, USM and Marshall would have been called up before some that were called up, but it does matter. What budget would it take to be a middle to low AAC program? A whole lot more than most of us can afford. It's a sad truth. Does that mean that X team from CUSA can't compete in the two major sports, absolutely not, we have proven this on the court, on the field. To do it each year and stay relevant, that is the key to a higher budget, more flexibility and coach retention. Mturn is correct, TV markets don't matter as a G5, it never did, which has already proven itself over and over again with our crap TV contracts. Anyone that says they do matter isn't paying attention.

AAC- $57 Million is the most current average expense for athletics (bloated a little by UConn's $83 million budget)
MWC- $42 Million is the most current average expense for athletics
C-USA- $31 Million is the most current average expense for athletics

(07-01-2015 02:45 PM)Kruciff Wrote:  Link

Quote:Besides the money, there is also the sticking point of taking academic non-qualifiers. Taking props has been important to Marshall's success, but the AAC doesn't allow it.

Maybe this is a problem now maybe its not. but I think the biggest reason why a school wouldn't be invited up for the ride would be this. No school in any conference wants to be associated with this. When I see the hypothetical reshuffling of conferences and people include Troy...I say no thank you.

(06-05-2019 03:30 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(06-05-2019 03:06 PM)Nugget49er Wrote:  I think the "big" G5 realignment will happen, but I am not sure what will kick it off. When it does, the G5-P5 gap will be larger than it is today, and insurmountable. This will move us leftovers towards reality. The drivers will be:

1. Budget - where does the money come from, and is it sustainable without TV dollars (see ECU). Financial outliers will not be accepted.
2. Broadband availability - Streaming is our future, and having the infrastructure backbone in place will separate the haves from have nots. Soon this may mean 5G. It definitely does not mean 20 MB local internet service.
3. Ease of travel - for conferences that can afford to fly, they are not going to get on a bus for two hours once they land. For teams that do not fly, what is the bus travel like--distance, weather, etc? This ties into keeping the kids in class.
4. Regionality - we always knew it was important, but we ignored it and are paying the price. Will go back to a plan that allows for rivalries.
5. Peer institutions - this will not be a primary driver, but a goal
   

Because success for G5 teams is cyclical and tied to the coach, the most desirable programs to a conference will not be based on current wins, but the ability to pay to replace a coach. Winning coaches leave us. It is a fact.

Until this happens we would all go to the AAC.

Houston didn't drop $4 million a year on Holgorsen just to give up and accept irrelevance. There are a few programs among the G5 (Houston, Cincinnati, BYU, Memphis, UCF, USF, Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, ...) that value playing the best programs they can over settling for easy regional games. I believe those better G5 programs (between 8-12 programs) will eventually reform into a conference that might compete with P5s for a spot in the playoffs. Some think the AAC could do it, but even after 2 undefeated seasons, UCF didn't get a spot, due to strength of schedule. The AAC's line-up seems to carry too much dead weight.

The only school in bold I looked at was Cincinnati and their schedule over 5 years doesn't look like you make it sound

1 UCLA Pac-12
2 @ Ohio State Big Ten
3 Miami (OH) MAC
4 @ Marshall CUSA

1@ UCLA Pac-12
2@ Miami (OH) MAC
3 Alabama A&M Non-Major
4 Ohio MAC

1 Austin Peay Non-Major
2 @ (8) Michigan Big Ten
3 @ Miami (OH) MAC
4 Marshall CUSA

1 Tennessee-Martin Non-Major
2 @ Purdue Big Ten
3 Miami (OH) MAC
4 Brigham Young Ind

1 Alabama A&M Non-Major
2 @ Miami (OH) MAC
3 Miami (FL) ACC
4 @ Brigham Young Ind

For context Western's OOC Schedules over the same years and I dont see a lot of difference. At least not like you making it out to be

1 Central Arkansas Non-Major
2 Louisville ACC

3 Army Ind
4 @ Arkansas SEC

1@ (4) Wisconsin Big Ten
2 @ Louisville ACC
3 Ball State MAC
4 Maine Non-Major

1Eastern Kentucky Non-Major
2 @ Illinois Big Ten
3 Ball State MAC
4 @ Vanderbilt SEC

1 @ (1) Alabama SEC
2 @ Miami (OH) MAC
3 Houston Baptist Non-Major
4 Vanderbilt SEC

1 @ Vanderbilt SEC
2 @ Indiana Big Ten
3 Miami (OH) MAC
4 @ (5) LSU SEC

EDIT: I just checked Houston and their OOC schedule is no different than Westerns....FCS, a weak G5 from CUSA or SBC and 2 P5 games. Yes their games are mostly regional like Texas St or UNT . So when you made that statement I guess you never really checked their OOC schedules?

2015
UofL
Tenn Tech FCS
Vandy
Texas St

2016
Lamar fcs
OKL
Texas St
UofL

2017 ONLY 3 OOC
Rice
Arizona
TX Tech

2018
Rice
TX Tech
Arizona
TX Southern fcs

2019
Oklahoma
PV A&M FCS
Washington St
UNT

EDIT for Memphis: and now I know for a fact you were just pulling names of schools out of your behind thinking no one would check their schedules
2019
Mississippi
Southern fcs
Louisiana-Monroe
South Alabama

2018
Mercer fcs
GST
South Alabama
Missouri

2017 ONLY 3 OOC
Louisiana-Monroe
UCLA
S. ILL FCS

2016
Southeast Missouri State FCS
Kansas
Bowling Green State
OLe Miss

2015
Missouri State fcs
BG
Kansas
Ole Miss