(05-23-2015 09:39 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (05-23-2015 08:42 PM)dawgitall Wrote: (05-23-2015 08:27 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: (05-23-2015 08:24 PM)dawgitall Wrote: One would have to agree with your assertions above to agree with you. I think they tend to be overstated and in some cases completely incorrect.
Nope.
Please point out where you think they are.
costs, quality of coverage, taking away coverage
WTF?
in other words, he completely ignored what you said and instead argues with the voices in his head. Welcome to my world.
I know lots of PCPs and don't know one single one with an empty waiting room. The National average wait time is something around 20 days, which only proves it. It's closer to 45 days in Boston. I mean, if there were a surplus, they could probably see you within 24-48 hours. It's important to note that the sort of mild illness you're going to see a PCP for will be 'over' before you ever see them, so little has changed in terms of healthcare delivery, also as evidenced by the continued use of ERs. It's not because of habit... but because the PCP can't see them. We're paying more, and getting no more primary care.
Your analogy, Owl is absolutely spot on. Of course it's not as simple as 2 people and one doc, but instead is more like 300mm people and 250,000 PCPs...But the fact remains that we didn't have enough PCPs for the previously insured... as evidenced by the wait times to get into them... so adding tens of millions more without adding more doctors means that we're merely reshuffling the care from one group of people (the previously insured) to another (them, plus the newly insured)... which means some of the previously insured won't get care so that the newly insured can, just as in your example.
(05-23-2015 11:46 PM)RobertN Wrote: (05-22-2015 12:29 PM)UofMstateU Wrote: (05-22-2015 12:25 PM)GoodOwl Wrote: In many cases, people are better off paying the penalty, I mean tax,
For now it probably has been. There were better options out there for those who were forced to the exchanges. Pay the tax, and join some other non-Obamacare compliant option. Far less expensive, and real insurance and healthcare involved.
However, that tax keeps increasing every year. So I dont know when the opt-out would no longer be financially viable.
It depends on the person's income. I know someone in a high deductible plan that pays about $20/month(subsidy included) with an income of about $17,000(which is technically middle class Mr. NCeagle) this year. If this person took the penalty/tax, it would be about $400. So essentially, this person would save roughly $200(which for someone making that amount is not pocket change unlike it is for the snobby people on here-you know who you are) and actually have coverage(though not very good) should the need arise to have to use it.
2 things
1) just because they don't pay more doesn't mean it doesn't cost more. You're ignoring the cost of the subsidy.
2) you're ignoring the deductibles and copays. The person paying $20/month is paying $240/yr for 2 check-ups, and probably has a $25-50 copay for that, meaning he's actually paying more like $300 for 2 check-ups, which isn't a bargain. They could have probably gotten 2 physicals/yr and paid cash... and of course that ignores that the actual COST of that care (which many people earning only marginally more than that guy has to pay entirely is a couple of thousand dollars for those 2 visits.
Now, If they actually get sick, depending on what we're talking about, they likely have to cover the deductible before insurance covers them. The annual deductible is usually somewhere between $2500 and $7500... which is obviously a large portion of their annual income. You said high deductible policy, so it might be even more for this guy... If they need $10,000+ in healthcare, then this is a good thing. If they need more like $5,000 in health care, then they're in exactly the same situation... not including the subsidy. If they don't get a subsidy, then they're still paying for more than they're receiving.
Oh, and according to the Washington Post, the average reimbursement for installing a pacemaker is $20,000... for a heart attack with 4 stents and major complications, less than 30k. Joint replacement reimbursements are between 12 and 15k... just to give you an idea of how much healthcare the average person needs before they will be meeting those annual deductibles. Now I understand that hospitals CHARGE far more than that, but every single one of them would be more than happy to receive that from the uninsured. More significantly, despite the insurance, the hospitals still aren't going to get paid for broken legs or pneumonia or other milder maladies, UNLESS it comes from the pockets of the poor, just as before.
People are far too often 'fooled' by the way that Hospitals used to do exactly what the ACAs Cadillac tax does... They bill $100,000 for something so that the very wealthy who choose not to have insurance pay $100,000 for the procedure that the insurance companies and Medicaid only pay $20,000 for... and Medicaid pays more like $10,000 for. If you're not wealthy.... they'll gladly take less.... because they're going to get less anyway. It does them no favors to force you into bankruptcy and get nothing.... but they get to 'write off' more from their taxes if they negotiate you down rather than simply billing less. But again, what do I know... I only do this for a living.
The 17,000 earner you're talking about is at about 150% of the FPL, and subsidies go up to 400%, so in other words, on average, subsidized insurance recipients are paying even more than $300 for those two annual well-checks. I've seen estimates that the number is closer to $1500.... and obviously, the average young healthy person doesn't need much care, so whatever care the Youtube 'watch me do something stupid' generation DOES need will likely not meet their deductible and come out of their pocket.
My point is simply that all of the problems that people have been convinced that Obamacare will solve still remain. They're slightly different perhaps, and obviously SOME people are made better off... but the numbers are staggeringly smaller than the numbers of people who are worse off, or we were lead to believe would be worse off.
Millions of people are being made $200 worse off, which as you note, is a meaningful amount to lots of people... so that one person now only has to declare bankruptcy for his $7500 deductible rather than his whole $20,000 bill.... because obviously by definition, they can't afford the deductible, since they couldn't afford the insurance to begin with.