Elon Phoenix
Overall Record (vs. DI): 9-10
CAA Record: 3-5 (t-6th)
RPI: 276
SOS: 335
KenPom: 255
The Phoenix roll into town coming off their best offensive output of the season. Elon defeated an inconsistent Delaware squad 94-82 on Saturday, a high-scoring affair for a Phoenix squad that averages 67.6 points of offense and 69.3 points per game on defense.
Elon has had it's share of solid highs and frustrating losses this season. The Phoenix defeated William & Mary on their home floor. They to Missouri on the road by just 5 in non-conference play. And last week they lost by 3 to James Madison, then fell on a buzzer beater to Towson. The old Bill Parcells adage "You are what your record says you are" applies, but as Towson taught the Seahawks, there remain no easy wins in the CAA, and can expect a dogfight against Elon.
Though he has only started one game this year, Freshman guard Elijah Bryant has stood out for Elon. He leads the team in scoring (13.7 ppg) and assists (2.5 apg). However, he also leads the team in turnovers, with 74. This has led the Phoenix to rely on a more sure-handed Senior Austin Hamilton (6.9 ppg, 2.3 apg) to be their starter at the PG position and use Bryant as more of a scoring guard off the bench. Hamilton is coming off a 31-point outburst against the Blue Hens on Saturday, and shouldn't lose minutes to Bryant anytime soon.
The Phoenix backcourt took a hit when Sophomore Luke Eddy (13.0 ppg, 2.1 apg) was knocked out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury back in December. The sharpshooter had knocked down a very impressive 17 of 34 threes on the season. Nevertheless, Elon features several perimeter threats, including Hamilton (.349 3-pt %), Bryant (.347), Junior Tanner Samson (.355), and Senior Kevin Blake (.360). The Phoenix rank 5th in CAA-only games in three-point shooting despite being without Eddy. Elon's guards also force a lot of turnovers, leading them to rank 3rd in turnover margin (+2.38) despite the woes of Elijah Bryant.
However, with several effective guards leading the charge, the reason for Elon's struggles seem obvious. The Phoenix struggle to rebound the ball. None of their players receiving significant minutes are taller than 6-7. One freshman forward, Jack Anton, is 6-8. Only Drexel (-7.2) has a worse rebounding margin than Elon (-4.1). They also rank dead last in block shots per game (1.5) by a wide margin. They employed a 4-guard lineup against Delaware and may opt to do so again in an attempt get their best players on the court for as many minutes as possible.
This is pure speculation, but Elon's weaknesses underneath may mean the Phoenix have had to turn to zone defense more than they would like. This could be one reason why the Phoenix also rank dead last in 3-pt FG % defense (.404) in CAA-only games. Their inability to close out on shooters could simply be bad defense by Elon's guards; more scouting would be necessary to determine the reason.
In any case, this is a very good matchup for the Seahawks on paper. The Hawks hold the edge in rebounding, points in the paint, and whichever guard is asked to guard Bryant should find plenty of takeaway opportunities. The Seahawks have proven they can also match Elon's 4-guard lineup with one of their own, while still maintaining the edge in physicality and on the boards. The two primary concerns would be Elon's shooters getting hot and their defense forcing turnovers.