The thing is in the regular season he is an above average 3b- a position that is not the easiest to find quite frankly. I think you have to look at that.... I mean the all-star 3b this year was Aramis Ramirez who made 16 million this year. Sandoval's numbers compare favorably to him. 3b isn't a great position right now. Last 2 years only 4 NL 3b are better than him- Carpenter, Rendon, Frazier, and Wright. That's it. So when you have 1 of the better ones, you generally want to keep him.

I think when you are looking at a guy- struggling like a lot of guys do is a big strike. Sandoval hasn't. Even in the 1 series he didn't do great, he still had 4 hits in 4 games. He wasn't like 1-19 or something like that. It's not that he is a better player in the postseason, it's that he's at least the same player in the postseason. That's a HUGE plus to me.

Also have to remember, the money is going up in general. The new tv deals are paying 1.5 billion per year up from 750 million before. That's up 25 million per club from before. So salaries in general are going up.

(11-02-2014 12:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing is in the regular season he is an above average 3b- a position that is not the easiest to find quite frankly. I think you have to look at that.... I mean the all-star 3b this year was Aramis Ramirez who made 16 million this year. Sandoval's numbers compare favorably to him. 3b isn't a great position right now. Last 2 years only 4 NL 3b are better than him- Carpenter, Rendon, Frazier, and Wright. That's it. So when you have 1 of the better ones, you generally want to keep him.

I think when you are looking at a guy- struggling like a lot of guys do is a big strike. Sandoval hasn't. Even in the 1 series he didn't do great, he still had 4 hits in 4 games. He wasn't like 1-19 or something like that. It's not that he is a better player in the postseason, it's that he's at least the same player in the postseason. That's a HUGE plus to me.

Also have to remember, the money is going up in general. The new tv deals are paying 1.5 billion per year up from 750 million before. That's up 25 million per club from before. So salaries in general are going up.

Not really sure what we're debating anymore. I know he's an above average 3B, never said anything to the contrary. My point was that I believe the giants can get superior production out of $100 million over the next five years. I know you said you think he'll get less than that, but as of right now I have nothing else on which to go.

And yes I realize there's more money in the league, but if the giants payroll isn't set to rise much (something the team has confirmed) then it doesn't really matter how much the other teams are able to spend. I also think we need to stop thinking about replacing a player with only that position. Let's say he ends up getting $20 million per year. Well that 20 million doesn't have to be explicitly earmarked for third base. You can take that money and spread it around in an attempt to upgrade other positions. You'd also be spreading the risk around

my point is ok you don't sign Panda. Go from above average 3b to what at 3b?

Then- not exactly a ton out there right now on the open market.

20 million may be an overpay slightly- but it's not the gross overpay that you were making it out to be. Like I said Ramirez got 16 million. Wright made 19 million. It's not a Lincecum deal- lets just say that.

(11-02-2014 11:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  my point is ok you don't sign Panda. Go from above average 3b to what at 3b?

Then- not exactly a ton out there right now on the open market.

20 million may be an overpay slightly- but it's not the gross overpay that you were making it out to be. Like I said Ramirez got 16 million. Wright made 19 million. It's not a Lincecum deal- lets just say that.

Who cares who your 3B is? You can replace him by upgrading other spots on the team. It's not a zero sum game. A 3B doesn't need to be replaced with a 3B. And if I'm gonna give out a big free agent contract I'm gonna make damn sure that the production at the front of the contract is above and beyond the salary, so that the underperformance at the end of the deal is cushioned. And panda is not gonna deliver superior value at the front end. More than likely he'll give you about .5 more WAR than the dollar value. But what's he gonna give you in the last few years? In the end I'm not giving a big contract to a fat slob who's only slightly above average at the plate and in the field

ask the braves about a black hole at 3b. And there's just not that much on the open market anywhere.

I think you are severely underestimating where he's going to be at 30 or 31 years old. He just turned 28.

(11-02-2014 10:25 PM)stever20 Wrote:  ask the braves about a black hole at 3b. And there's just not that much on the open market anywhere.

I think you are severely underestimating where he's going to be at 30 or 31 years old. He just turned 28.

Yeah all the Braves problems are because of Johnson. When you get less than nothing from CF and 2B and nothing at the plate from SS, you're probably going to have problems. Not to mention Johnson not only has problems at the plate but is a zero in the field and on the bases.

I think you're overestimating what he currently is, and by extension what he'll be when he gains more weight and loses his skills in the field. We're talking about a guy with only 7.9 WAR in the past 3 seasons, in which his offensive numbers have stabilized and his weight was best case scenario. An extra 15 lbs and you're talking about a WAR of around 2.0. I can get that production from many other places

Put matt duffy at 3B. He's a far better baserunner and should be able to field the position pretty well. If they could get 1.5-2 WAR out of him, they'll have around $19 million to use to try to get 2 more WAR, which would end up being a net positive without having to give out a long term deal

Considering Panda was the #3 hr hitter- replacing him with a punch and judy hitter is going to send ripples down the entire lineup(especially if they don't resign Morse).

I think odds are real good that they resign him.

(11-03-2014 02:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Considering Panda was the #3 hr hitter- replacing him with a punch and judy hitter is going to send ripples down the entire lineup(especially if they don't resign Morse).

I think odds are real good that they resign him.

you can replace power with other attributes. Plus, he didn't hit any HR in October and only one in September; So they didn't exactly ride his power to the WS. Losing his prodigious .399 road slugging % and replacing it with baserunning and improved hitting against lefties will allow them to upgrade LF where the amazing Michael Morse and his 16 HR (same as Panda) produced a whopping 1 WAR. I'd much rather replace Sandoval's mediocre power and oscillating weight with better baserunning, good defense and far shorter contracts and less risk.

A LF platoon of Rios and Blanco probably produces something like 3 WAR, add in Duffy and a WAR of 1.5 (certainly attainable) and you come out around equal for far less money.

All I know is, in 2010 Panda ballooned and his great 2009 was a mere memory. I figured they couldn't possibly go anywhere without him. In the end they moved Uribe to 3rd and used Renteria at SS. And as we know they won it all.

This season they lost Pagan who was supposed to be the one guy who tipped the scales in the Giants' favor (seriously, look at the W-L record with him and without him). They also lost Morse for most of the postseason. So naturally they replace those two guys with Blanco and a platoon of Ishikawa and Juan Perez - two guys who are basically quadruple-A players. Anyone can be replaced, just ask the Cards and Pujols.

I will say one thing in Panda's favor: If his average against lefties reverts back to somewhere near his career numbers, he'll be a more valuable player. Definitely something to think about as his BABIP against lefties was an anemic .210.

Surprised Colorado gave Cuddyer a QO. I think he will be the first to accept it.

(11-04-2014 08:46 AM)nbcards Wrote:  Surprised Colorado gave Cuddyer a QO. I think he will be the first to accept it.

Yeah I'm a little surprised as well. Gotta think they could replace that production in their ballpark

From Tony Blengino at Fangraphs:
"they probably shouldn’t break the bank on Pablo Sandoval if it’s going to drain dollars away from their greatest need – starting pitching. Of course, winning titles increases revenue streams, so it’s possible they can keep their incumbent third baseman while still going hard after pitching upgrades. Still, they might be able to get 80-90% of Sandoval’s value while spending 50-60% of the annual salary and 25-30% of the long-term salary guarantee by pursuing a different 3B target, enabling them to get one of the bigger pitching fish on the market."

the thing is outside the top 2-3 pitchers- there isn't all that much out there. And Giants likely won't be in on those guys at all.

Also they'll get a bump in the pitching next year as Cain will be back. So not sure that pitching is necessarily the greatest need. Cain really transforms the pitching.

(11-04-2014 12:20 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 08:46 AM)nbcards Wrote:  Surprised Colorado gave Cuddyer a QO. I think he will be the first to accept it.

Yeah I'm a little surprised as well. Gotta think they could replace that production in their ballpark

Yea. I was hoping the Cardinals would make a run at Cuddyer to back up Grichuk and Adams but the Cardinals won't give up a first rd pick to get Cuddyer.

(11-04-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing is outside the top 2-3 pitchers- there isn't all that much out there. And Giants likely won't be in on those guys at all.

Also they'll get a bump in the pitching next year as Cain will be back. So not sure that pitching is necessarily the greatest need. Cain really transforms the pitching.

What do you expect from Cain?

(11-04-2014 01:05 PM)nbcards Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 12:20 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 08:46 AM)nbcards Wrote:  Surprised Colorado gave Cuddyer a QO. I think he will be the first to accept it.

Yeah I'm a little surprised as well. Gotta think they could replace that production in their ballpark

Yea. I was hoping the Cardinals would make a run at Cuddyer to back up Grichuk and Adams but the Cardinals won't give up a first rd pick to get Cuddyer.

Nobody will

(11-04-2014 03:17 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing is outside the top 2-3 pitchers- there isn't all that much out there. And Giants likely won't be in on those guys at all.

Also they'll get a bump in the pitching next year as Cain will be back. So not sure that pitching is necessarily the greatest need. Cain really transforms the pitching.

What do you expect from Cain?

his normal 30-32 start 3.25 era 220 ip type of year. Thing with him is if he's there he's a #2 easy and then Hudson is a 3.

Think the bigger chance to overpay is with Peavy. With Cain back- don't have to do that.

(11-04-2014 03:23 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 03:17 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 01:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  the thing is outside the top 2-3 pitchers- there isn't all that much out there. And Giants likely won't be in on those guys at all.

Also they'll get a bump in the pitching next year as Cain will be back. So not sure that pitching is necessarily the greatest need. Cain really transforms the pitching.

What do you expect from Cain?

his normal 30-32 start 3.25 era 220 ip type of year. Thing with him is if he's there he's a #2 easy and then Hudson is a 3.

Think the bigger chance to overpay is with Peavy. With Cain back- don't have to do that.

so you think 2013 and 2014 was an aberration and that he'll revert to 2010-2012 Cain?

Rumor is the Braves are interested in putting Gattis on the market. I'd like to see what kinds of players they have their eye on, because a below average offensive team giving up one of their best hitters seems a little foolish. Maybe our resident Braves fans can help out here.

(11-10-2014 11:51 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Rumor is the Braves are interested in putting Gattis on the market. I'd like to see what kinds of players they have their eye on, because a below average offensive team giving up one of their best hitters seems a little foolish. Maybe our resident Braves fans can help out here.

First, the Braves have a hard on for Christian Bethancourt. Second, El Oso Blanco is 28 and playing catcher is killing him physically. He needs to be in the AL where he can switch between C and DH more often and no longer be a defensive liability when he needs a break. Finally with Gattis as trade bait, you might be able to offload B.J. Upton in a package deal.