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This was inevitable,

The Bottom 25

This thread is as depressing as this season.

(11-04-2014 07:26 PM)Sirloin Burger Wrote:  This was inevitable,

The Bottom 25

At least we were Vandy's best win....

And, just when you think things can't get worse,

be thankful we are not FGSU

(11-04-2014 05:49 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  What is our 3rd down efficiency on defense?

Why would someone take 25% of the available downs to you and judge a unit based on this?

If an offense scored 7 straight touchdowns, never getting to third down and then had a 3 and out, they would have a conversion rate of 0%.

Why wouldn't 4th down conversion percentage be important?

That's true, and that's why I posted the link to our individual game stats.

A very poor or very good 3rd down percentage by your offense can artificially degrade or inflate your defensive numbers, thus causing unrealistic expectations if not examined carefully.

Make no mistake, I am not claiming that our defense is good. However, it is not as bad as it looks either.

Likely our defensive stats and actual defense will never be great with a quick strike offense. But when that quick strike cannot manage possession time any better than to go 2 - 7 vs Vanderbilt, 3 - 8 vs MTSU, 4-10 vs UTEP, we cannot possibly have enough fresh bodies to defend by the 4th quarter.

Except for three games, Hampton, and NC State, our third down conversion rate is not good at all. Collectively WITH those three games our rate is still not good.

We can spin our offensive stats such we look like we are a juggernaut, but when our defense is so gassed by the 4th that it cannot stop the opponent at all and our offense cannot score even when they have it in the 4th, then we are done. I think odusteeler once said that the only stat that matters at the end of the game is the final score.

Well, except for Marshall, we were in every other game late, and had the offense been able to manage time with just a modicum of drive success, we could have won most of them
In fact, the only 4th quarters we have won were Marshall (against their 3s on both sides of the ball) and EMU.
Collectively we have been outscored 86-51 (86-44 excluding Marshall which was lost early) in the 4th.

If your response to this is something like "well yeah, but we lost our O-line and receivers so we can't do that", then I will of course accept that, because it is true; but by saying that, and many of you have, then you are conceding that deficiencies in the offense are contributing factors, thus admitting that our W/L record it is not completely the responsibility of the defense.


EDIT:
You asked why 3rd down rate is so important.
It's not just me.

Here is a compilation of college head coaches and coordinators and what they think is important, Third down conversions is notably high on most of their lists, and tops on some.
https://collegefootball.rivals.com/conte...ID=1222359

...and in the NFL

Quote:There isn't one magic statistic used in determining a team's offensive efficiency, but Third down efficiency is a big one

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/...ency/2014/

(11-04-2014 05:30 PM)ODUBB35 Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 04:09 PM)monarchoptimist Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 03:28 PM)ODUBB35 Wrote:  I think we all understand that we would struggle somewhat with moving up. My point, and the point of other critics of the D, is that it is unacceptable at any level. I hate to keep rehashing the fact that UMass and Charleston Southern were able to keep Vanderbilt in check. We should be able to do the same. Instead, we were slapped around by a very bad offense.

Why should our current defense be better than either of these teams? I have not bothered to examine the data but Charleston Southern and UMass likely had better defenses than ODU last year (and for the years preceding). ODU was a FCS team just last season, why should a single year (where many of our new recruits are redshirting) make such a dramatic difference?

Just because we are now carrying around a FBS label does not mean every unit on the team has flipped a switch and transformed into a FBS caliber squad. I don't think anyone believes the defense is acceptable but rather understandable. You cannot dismiss the rapid ascent of ODU up the college football ranks and the impact that has on the performance on the field.

In case you were wondering, Charleston Southern is still an FCS team, one of many that have a better defense than O_U, and by a wide margin.

In case you forgot, ODU was a FCS team last season with a defense worse than Charleston Southern. So, if we are redshirting most of our freshman FBS recruits exactly why should anyone expect our defense to be better?

Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

(11-05-2014 12:10 AM)monarchoptimist Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 05:30 PM)ODUBB35 Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 04:09 PM)monarchoptimist Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 03:28 PM)ODUBB35 Wrote:  I think we all understand that we would struggle somewhat with moving up. My point, and the point of other critics of the D, is that it is unacceptable at any level. I hate to keep rehashing the fact that UMass and Charleston Southern were able to keep Vanderbilt in check. We should be able to do the same. Instead, we were slapped around by a very bad offense.

Why should our current defense be better than either of these teams? I have not bothered to examine the data but Charleston Southern and UMass likely had better defenses than ODU last year (and for the years preceding). ODU was a FCS team just last season, why should a single year (where many of our new recruits are redshirting) make such a dramatic difference?

Just because we are now carrying around a FBS label does not mean every unit on the team has flipped a switch and transformed into a FBS caliber squad. I don't think anyone believes the defense is acceptable but rather understandable. You cannot dismiss the rapid ascent of ODU up the college football ranks and the impact that has on the performance on the field.

In case you were wondering, Charleston Southern is still an FCS team, one of many that have a better defense than O_U, and by a wide margin.

In case you forgot, ODU was a FCS team last season with a defense worse than Charleston Southern. So, if we are redshirting most of our freshman FBS recruits exactly why should anyone expect our defense to be better?

Posted from my mobile device using the CSNbbs App

I don't know. I guess I was just aiming high.

(11-04-2014 11:18 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 05:49 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  What is our 3rd down efficiency on defense?

Why would someone take 25% of the available downs to you and judge a unit based on this?

If an offense scored 7 straight touchdowns, never getting to third down and then had a 3 and out, they would have a conversion rate of 0%.

Why wouldn't 4th down conversion percentage be important?

That's true, and that's why I posted the link to our individual game stats.

A very poor or very good 3rd down percentage by your offense can artificially degrade or inflate your defensive numbers, thus causing unrealistic expectations if not examined carefully.

Make no mistake, I am not claiming that our defense is good. However, it is not as bad as it looks either.

Likely our defensive stats and actual defense will never be great with a quick strike offense. But when that quick strike cannot manage possession time any better than to go 2 - 7 vs Vanderbilt, 3 - 8 vs MTSU, 4-10 vs UTEP, we cannot possibly have enough fresh bodies to defend by the 4th quarter.

Except for three games, Hampton, and NC State, our third down conversion rate is not good at all. Collectively WITH those three games our rate is still not good.

We can spin our offensive stats such we look like we are a juggernaut, but when our defense is so gassed by the 4th that it cannot stop the opponent at all and our offense cannot score even when they have it in the 4th, then we are done. I think odusteeler once said that the only stat that matters at the end of the game is the final score.

Well, except for Marshall, we were in every other game late, and had the offense been able to manage time with just a modicum of drive success, we could have won most of them
In fact, the only 4th quarters we have won were Marshall (against their 3s on both sides of the ball) and EMU.
Collectively we have been outscored 86-51 (86-44 excluding Marshall which was lost early) in the 4th.

If your response to this is something like "well yeah, but we lost our O-line and receivers so we can't do that", then I will of course accept that, because it is true; but by saying that, and many of you have, then you are conceding that deficiencies in the offense are contributing factors, thus admitting that our W/L record it is not completely the responsibility of the defense.


EDIT:
You asked why 3rd down rate is so important.
It's not just me.

Here is a compilation of college head coaches and coordinators and what they think is important, Third down conversions is notably high on most of their lists, and tops on some.
https://collegefootball.rivals.com/conte...ID=1222359

...and in the NFL

Quote:There isn't one magic statistic used in determining a team's offensive efficiency, but Third down efficiency is a big one

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/...ency/2014/

4th quarter drives- Offensive touchdowns:

Vandy- 2/1
Wky- 3/0
UTEP- 2/1
MT- 3/1
Rice- 2/0 (FG for win)
NC State 2/1

Total 4th quarter points in this game 31 in 14 drives. (2.21 points per drive), which is top 50 in the country in terms of overall game.

Any criticism of the offense is "they don't score every time they have the ball," which is crazy talk to me.

People are picking and choosing things they perceive to be negatives about the offense that aren't true negatives (unless you think top 50 is bad).

The bottom line is the offense is ranked in the top 40 by almost any measure you can come up with. That includes measures that take into account opponents, garbage time drives, etc. The defense is dead last in the country. Our offense is putting up points despite having to score in 80% of the possessions or they will be behind in the game and the defense allowing the other team to drive for over 4 mins every time they get the ball.

For example, our offense averages 67 plays per game. FIU's offense averages 69 plays per game. Our defense averages 77 plays per game. Their defense averages 67. Why is that? Does their offense convert 3rd downs? Stay out of three-and-outs? The answer is no.

FIU averages 1.2 points per drive (116 drives-FBS games) They get first downs on only 52% of drives. Only 7% of the time they have 10 play drives. FIU converts 3rd downs at a rate of 31% (converted 4 first downs, so in reality extended 34% of drives reaching 3rd down.

ODU averages 2.6 points per drive. They get first downs on 65% of possessions and have 10 play drives on 14% of possessions. ODU converts 3rd downs at a rate of 44% (39th in NCAA). They've converted another 11 4th downs so they've extended drives 54% of the time.

So why is ODU's defense on the field so often? You have a team that doesn't get first downs as often, doesn't have long drives, and doesn't convert 3rd downs. Their defense should be on the field all game?

OTOH, FIUs defensive numbers:

1.87 points per drive
64% of drives have a first down
6% of drives are 10+ plays
34% 3rd down conversions

ODU:

3.6 points per drive
75% of drives have a first down
22% of drives are 10+ play drives

In other words, the blame for the amount of time on the field for the defense is the fault of the defense not getting off the field.

Maybe y'all should should suit up Saturday against FIU's offense because you obviously know how to drive things into the ground.

(11-05-2014 10:22 AM)paintedblue Wrote:  Maybe y'all should should suit up Saturday against FIU's offense because you obviously know how to drive things into the ground.

The horrible defense has been driven into the ground as much as the "we are still FCS" bs that some people believe.

(11-05-2014 10:22 AM)paintedblue Wrote:  Maybe y'all should should suit up Saturday against FIU's offense because you obviously know how to drive things into the ground.

If you don't like discussing ODU football or what to stay away from this topic, you are perfectly capable of doing so.

(11-05-2014 10:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 11:18 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 05:49 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  What is our 3rd down efficiency on defense?

Why would someone take 25% of the available downs to you and judge a unit based on this?

If an offense scored 7 straight touchdowns, never getting to third down and then had a 3 and out, they would have a conversion rate of 0%.

Why wouldn't 4th down conversion percentage be important?

That's true, and that's why I posted the link to our individual game stats.

A very poor or very good 3rd down percentage by your offense can artificially degrade or inflate your defensive numbers, thus causing unrealistic expectations if not examined carefully.

Make no mistake, I am not claiming that our defense is good. However, it is not as bad as it looks either.

Likely our defensive stats and actual defense will never be great with a quick strike offense. But when that quick strike cannot manage possession time any better than to go 2 - 7 vs Vanderbilt, 3 - 8 vs MTSU, 4-10 vs UTEP, we cannot possibly have enough fresh bodies to defend by the 4th quarter.

Except for three games, Hampton, and NC State, our third down conversion rate is not good at all. Collectively WITH those three games our rate is still not good.

We can spin our offensive stats such we look like we are a juggernaut, but when our defense is so gassed by the 4th that it cannot stop the opponent at all and our offense cannot score even when they have it in the 4th, then we are done. I think odusteeler once said that the only stat that matters at the end of the game is the final score.

Well, except for Marshall, we were in every other game late, and had the offense been able to manage time with just a modicum of drive success, we could have won most of them
In fact, the only 4th quarters we have won were Marshall (against their 3s on both sides of the ball) and EMU.
Collectively we have been outscored 86-51 (86-44 excluding Marshall which was lost early) in the 4th.

If your response to this is something like "well yeah, but we lost our O-line and receivers so we can't do that", then I will of course accept that, because it is true; but by saying that, and many of you have, then you are conceding that deficiencies in the offense are contributing factors, thus admitting that our W/L record it is not completely the responsibility of the defense.


EDIT:
You asked why 3rd down rate is so important.
It's not just me.

Here is a compilation of college head coaches and coordinators and what they think is important, Third down conversions is notably high on most of their lists, and tops on some.
https://collegefootball.rivals.com/conte...ID=1222359

...and in the NFL

Quote:There isn't one magic statistic used in determining a team's offensive efficiency, but Third down efficiency is a big one

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/...ency/2014/

4th quarter drives- Offensive touchdowns:

Vandy- 2/1
Wky- 3/0
UTEP- 2/1
MT- 3/1
Rice- 2/0 (FG for win)
NC State 2/1

Total 4th quarter points in this game 31 in 14 drives. (2.21 points per drive), which is top 50 in the country in terms of overall game.

Any criticism of the offense is "they don't score every time they have the ball," which is crazy talk to me.

People are picking and choosing things they perceive to be negatives about the offense that aren't true negatives (unless you think top 50 is bad).

The bottom line is the offense is ranked in the top 40 by almost any measure you can come up with. That includes measures that take into account opponents, garbage time drives, etc. The defense is dead last in the country. Our offense is putting up points despite having to score in 80% of the possessions or they will be behind in the game and the defense allowing the other team to drive for over 4 mins every time they get the ball.

For example, our offense averages 67 plays per game. FIU's offense averages 69 plays per game. Our defense averages 77 plays per game. Their defense averages 67. Why is that? Does their offense convert 3rd downs? Stay out of three-and-outs? The answer is no.

FIU averages 1.2 points per drive (116 drives-FBS games) They get first downs on only 52% of drives. Only 7% of the time they have 10 play drives. FIU converts 3rd downs at a rate of 31% (converted 4 first downs, so in reality extended 34% of drives reaching 3rd down.

ODU averages 2.6 points per drive. They get first downs on 65% of possessions and have 10 play drives on 14% of possessions. ODU converts 3rd downs at a rate of 44% (39th in NCAA). They've converted another 11 4th downs so they've extended drives 54% of the time.

So why is ODU's defense on the field so often? You have a team that doesn't get first downs as often, doesn't have long drives, and doesn't convert 3rd downs. Their defense should be on the field all game?

OTOH, FIUs defensive numbers:

1.87 points per drive
64% of drives have a first down
6% of drives are 10+ plays
34% 3rd down conversions

ODU:

3.6 points per drive
75% of drives have a first down
22% of drives are 10+ play drives

In other words, the blame for the amount of time on the field for the defense is the fault of the defense not getting off the field.

I am not sure where your stats are from, so I manually did the math as per 3rd down conversion rate, based on each game's drive summary from here:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/team...n-monarchs

and I got exactly the number that is posted here.
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foot...ersion-pct
which is 39.8% placing us 70th in the nation, not 39th.

Further, this is part of a whole - whereby the real issue is time management. We need to consume clock. Even when we get an 11 play drive, it consists of clock stopping passes, more often than not as a receiver goes out of bounds.

Just as an example, look at the ODU /Vanderbilt drive summary.
Our one long drive still consumed less than three minutes.
http://espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=400548065

The mighty spreads of Division I, Oregon and Baylor, are both based on the zone read run.When circumstances dictate, they can run ball control on the ground.
If we cannot increase our time of possession, then we can resign ourselves to scoring a lot of points but still losing for years to come at this level.

It is related, and all we have to do is look at WKU for proof of that.

(11-05-2014 10:50 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 10:22 AM)paintedblue Wrote:  Maybe y'all should should suit up Saturday against FIU's offense because you obviously know how to drive things into the ground.

If you don't like discussing ODU football or what to stay away from this topic, you are perfectly capable of doing so.

What a circular firing squad this has turned into. I agree...this is a thread i'm checking out of.

(11-05-2014 10:57 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 10:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 11:18 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 05:49 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  What is our 3rd down efficiency on defense?

Why would someone take 25% of the available downs to you and judge a unit based on this?

If an offense scored 7 straight touchdowns, never getting to third down and then had a 3 and out, they would have a conversion rate of 0%.

Why wouldn't 4th down conversion percentage be important?

That's true, and that's why I posted the link to our individual game stats.

A very poor or very good 3rd down percentage by your offense can artificially degrade or inflate your defensive numbers, thus causing unrealistic expectations if not examined carefully.

Make no mistake, I am not claiming that our defense is good. However, it is not as bad as it looks either.

Likely our defensive stats and actual defense will never be great with a quick strike offense. But when that quick strike cannot manage possession time any better than to go 2 - 7 vs Vanderbilt, 3 - 8 vs MTSU, 4-10 vs UTEP, we cannot possibly have enough fresh bodies to defend by the 4th quarter.

Except for three games, Hampton, and NC State, our third down conversion rate is not good at all. Collectively WITH those three games our rate is still not good.

We can spin our offensive stats such we look like we are a juggernaut, but when our defense is so gassed by the 4th that it cannot stop the opponent at all and our offense cannot score even when they have it in the 4th, then we are done. I think odusteeler once said that the only stat that matters at the end of the game is the final score.

Well, except for Marshall, we were in every other game late, and had the offense been able to manage time with just a modicum of drive success, we could have won most of them
In fact, the only 4th quarters we have won were Marshall (against their 3s on both sides of the ball) and EMU.
Collectively we have been outscored 86-51 (86-44 excluding Marshall which was lost early) in the 4th.

If your response to this is something like "well yeah, but we lost our O-line and receivers so we can't do that", then I will of course accept that, because it is true; but by saying that, and many of you have, then you are conceding that deficiencies in the offense are contributing factors, thus admitting that our W/L record it is not completely the responsibility of the defense.


EDIT:
You asked why 3rd down rate is so important.
It's not just me.

Here is a compilation of college head coaches and coordinators and what they think is important, Third down conversions is notably high on most of their lists, and tops on some.
https://collegefootball.rivals.com/conte...ID=1222359

...and in the NFL

Quote:There isn't one magic statistic used in determining a team's offensive efficiency, but Third down efficiency is a big one

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/...ency/2014/

4th quarter drives- Offensive touchdowns:

Vandy- 2/1
Wky- 3/0
UTEP- 2/1
MT- 3/1
Rice- 2/0 (FG for win)
NC State 2/1

Total 4th quarter points in this game 31 in 14 drives. (2.21 points per drive), which is top 50 in the country in terms of overall game.

Any criticism of the offense is "they don't score every time they have the ball," which is crazy talk to me.

People are picking and choosing things they perceive to be negatives about the offense that aren't true negatives (unless you think top 50 is bad).

The bottom line is the offense is ranked in the top 40 by almost any measure you can come up with. That includes measures that take into account opponents, garbage time drives, etc. The defense is dead last in the country. Our offense is putting up points despite having to score in 80% of the possessions or they will be behind in the game and the defense allowing the other team to drive for over 4 mins every time they get the ball.

For example, our offense averages 67 plays per game. FIU's offense averages 69 plays per game. Our defense averages 77 plays per game. Their defense averages 67. Why is that? Does their offense convert 3rd downs? Stay out of three-and-outs? The answer is no.

FIU averages 1.2 points per drive (116 drives-FBS games) They get first downs on only 52% of drives. Only 7% of the time they have 10 play drives. FIU converts 3rd downs at a rate of 31% (converted 4 first downs, so in reality extended 34% of drives reaching 3rd down.

ODU averages 2.6 points per drive. They get first downs on 65% of possessions and have 10 play drives on 14% of possessions. ODU converts 3rd downs at a rate of 44% (39th in NCAA). They've converted another 11 4th downs so they've extended drives 54% of the time.

So why is ODU's defense on the field so often? You have a team that doesn't get first downs as often, doesn't have long drives, and doesn't convert 3rd downs. Their defense should be on the field all game?

OTOH, FIUs defensive numbers:

1.87 points per drive
64% of drives have a first down
6% of drives are 10+ plays
34% 3rd down conversions

ODU:

3.6 points per drive
75% of drives have a first down
22% of drives are 10+ play drives

In other words, the blame for the amount of time on the field for the defense is the fault of the defense not getting off the field.

I am not sure where your stats are from, so I manually did the math as per 3rd down conversion rate, based on each game's drive summary from here:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/team...n-monarchs

and I got exactly the number that is posted here.
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foot...ersion-pct
which is 39.8% placing us 70th in the nation, not 39th.

Further, this is part of a whole - whereby the real issue is time management. We need to consume clock. Even when we get an 11 play drive, it consists of clock stopping passes, more often than not as a receiver goes out of bounds.

Just as an example, look at the ODU /Vanderbilt drive summary.
Our one long drive still consumed less than three minutes.
http://espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=400548065

If we cannot increase our time of possession, then we can resign ourselves to scoring a lot of points but still losing for years to come.

It is related, and all we have to do is look at WKU for proof of that.

The 3rd down conversion numbers are for games that do not include FCS teams.

We actually won time of possession vs. Western Kentucky.

Our defense getting stops increases our time of possession.

Don Shula on 3rd downs:

``Our inability to convert on third downs ... you just can`t have any type of ball control or consistent drives when you don`t convert on third downs. That was a real disappointment.``

(11-05-2014 11:07 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  The 3rd down conversion numbers are for games that do not include FCS teams.

We actually won time of possession vs. Western Kentucky.

Our defense getting stops increases our time of possession.

Then that makes it worse for us. Without the FCS Hampton @ 72% then, we probably drop below 31%, putting is in the bottom 10 group of schools in the nation.

I am not surprised at all. The WKU offense is just a better version of ours. They likely never win TOP. They also have no ball control fallback. Interestingly, their defense has the identical problem ours does, and is ranked 3 places lower than we are in Points Against nationally. Exactly what I would expect.

Don't mean to be part of any firing squad, and I'm not calling for any coaching changes. I'm just frustrated (as I'm sure we all are) at how horrendous the D is. (I've never seen anything quite like it. I mean it's bad, REALLY BAD!!!).

I admit that my expectations may have been a bit high. Maybe it was too much to expect that our D would be comparable to a mid-tier FCS school. Someone suggested such. I hoped we would be somewhat competitive on that side of the ball. We just aren't.

Hopefully the guys redshirting will pick us up on D next year. They'd better. We'll likely be starting a freshman QB. Could get ugly.

Our D has been better, I'm sorry some of you can't see it no matter how many different statistics I use to support what I see on the field.

Your opinion is your opinion and you are entitled to that. However strong or not it may be.

Last years defense was a complete train wreck, especially in terms if giving up the big play. Every team sprung huge plays on us, even the FCS school and Idaho. Remember Maryland and UNC? Citadel was just as bad.

This years team does not yield the big play anywhere near as much while actually forcing turnover and while we are losing for that matter. Any team that can force turnovers while trailing by 18 points deserves some notice.

Now they have to learn to be better 10 yards and in towards the line of scrimmage. I completely believe that Nagy has built a sound foundation on the back line of the defense. Next is cutting down on the high volume of mistakes in open space closer to the line of scrimmage.

(11-05-2014 11:07 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 10:57 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 10:14 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 11:18 PM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-04-2014 05:49 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  What is our 3rd down efficiency on defense?

Why would someone take 25% of the available downs to you and judge a unit based on this?

If an offense scored 7 straight touchdowns, never getting to third down and then had a 3 and out, they would have a conversion rate of 0%.

Why wouldn't 4th down conversion percentage be important?

That's true, and that's why I posted the link to our individual game stats.

A very poor or very good 3rd down percentage by your offense can artificially degrade or inflate your defensive numbers, thus causing unrealistic expectations if not examined carefully.

Make no mistake, I am not claiming that our defense is good. However, it is not as bad as it looks either.

Likely our defensive stats and actual defense will never be great with a quick strike offense. But when that quick strike cannot manage possession time any better than to go 2 - 7 vs Vanderbilt, 3 - 8 vs MTSU, 4-10 vs UTEP, we cannot possibly have enough fresh bodies to defend by the 4th quarter.

Except for three games, Hampton, and NC State, our third down conversion rate is not good at all. Collectively WITH those three games our rate is still not good.

We can spin our offensive stats such we look like we are a juggernaut, but when our defense is so gassed by the 4th that it cannot stop the opponent at all and our offense cannot score even when they have it in the 4th, then we are done. I think odusteeler once said that the only stat that matters at the end of the game is the final score.

Well, except for Marshall, we were in every other game late, and had the offense been able to manage time with just a modicum of drive success, we could have won most of them
In fact, the only 4th quarters we have won were Marshall (against their 3s on both sides of the ball) and EMU.
Collectively we have been outscored 86-51 (86-44 excluding Marshall which was lost early) in the 4th.

If your response to this is something like "well yeah, but we lost our O-line and receivers so we can't do that", then I will of course accept that, because it is true; but by saying that, and many of you have, then you are conceding that deficiencies in the offense are contributing factors, thus admitting that our W/L record it is not completely the responsibility of the defense.


EDIT:
You asked why 3rd down rate is so important.
It's not just me.

Here is a compilation of college head coaches and coordinators and what they think is important, Third down conversions is notably high on most of their lists, and tops on some.
https://collegefootball.rivals.com/conte...ID=1222359

...and in the NFL

Quote:There isn't one magic statistic used in determining a team's offensive efficiency, but Third down efficiency is a big one

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/...ency/2014/

4th quarter drives- Offensive touchdowns:

Vandy- 2/1
Wky- 3/0
UTEP- 2/1
MT- 3/1
Rice- 2/0 (FG for win)
NC State 2/1

Total 4th quarter points in this game 31 in 14 drives. (2.21 points per drive), which is top 50 in the country in terms of overall game.

Any criticism of the offense is "they don't score every time they have the ball," which is crazy talk to me.

People are picking and choosing things they perceive to be negatives about the offense that aren't true negatives (unless you think top 50 is bad).

The bottom line is the offense is ranked in the top 40 by almost any measure you can come up with. That includes measures that take into account opponents, garbage time drives, etc. The defense is dead last in the country. Our offense is putting up points despite having to score in 80% of the possessions or they will be behind in the game and the defense allowing the other team to drive for over 4 mins every time they get the ball.

For example, our offense averages 67 plays per game. FIU's offense averages 69 plays per game. Our defense averages 77 plays per game. Their defense averages 67. Why is that? Does their offense convert 3rd downs? Stay out of three-and-outs? The answer is no.

FIU averages 1.2 points per drive (116 drives-FBS games) They get first downs on only 52% of drives. Only 7% of the time they have 10 play drives. FIU converts 3rd downs at a rate of 31% (converted 4 first downs, so in reality extended 34% of drives reaching 3rd down.

ODU averages 2.6 points per drive. They get first downs on 65% of possessions and have 10 play drives on 14% of possessions. ODU converts 3rd downs at a rate of 44% (39th in NCAA). They've converted another 11 4th downs so they've extended drives 54% of the time.

So why is ODU's defense on the field so often? You have a team that doesn't get first downs as often, doesn't have long drives, and doesn't convert 3rd downs. Their defense should be on the field all game?

OTOH, FIUs defensive numbers:

1.87 points per drive
64% of drives have a first down
6% of drives are 10+ plays
34% 3rd down conversions

ODU:

3.6 points per drive
75% of drives have a first down
22% of drives are 10+ play drives

In other words, the blame for the amount of time on the field for the defense is the fault of the defense not getting off the field.

I am not sure where your stats are from, so I manually did the math as per 3rd down conversion rate, based on each game's drive summary from here:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/team...n-monarchs

and I got exactly the number that is posted here.
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-foot...ersion-pct
which is 39.8% placing us 70th in the nation, not 39th.

Further, this is part of a whole - whereby the real issue is time management. We need to consume clock. Even when we get an 11 play drive, it consists of clock stopping passes, more often than not as a receiver goes out of bounds.

Just as an example, look at the ODU /Vanderbilt drive summary.
Our one long drive still consumed less than three minutes.
http://espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=400548065

If we cannot increase our time of possession, then we can resign ourselves to scoring a lot of points but still losing for years to come.

It is related, and all we have to do is look at WKU for proof of that.

The 3rd down conversion numbers are for games that do not include FCS teams.

We actually won time of possession vs. Western Kentucky.

Our defense getting stops increases our time of possession.

...and we had a legitimate chance of winning the WKU game...and our defense didn't get any stops against WKU. Offense plays well, we don't get killed on TOP and we have a chance to win. Also, while the defense was brutalised by WKU, it wasn't far off from WKU's averages. So offense was better, we competed in time of possession, our defense was not as bad comparatively, and we had a chance to win.

Marshall and Vandy - Offense sucked, time of possession was terrible, defense couldn't get off the field, we really had no chance of winning. Sounds like there is a correlation between offensive performance and defensive performance to me.

(11-05-2014 11:31 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 11:07 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  The 3rd down conversion numbers are for games that do not include FCS teams.

We actually won time of possession vs. Western Kentucky.

Our defense getting stops increases our time of possession.

Then that makes it worse for us. Without the FCS Hampton @ 72% then, we probably drop below 31%, putting is in the bottom 10 group of schools in the nation.

I am not surprised at all. The WKU offense is just a better version of ours. They likely never win TOP. They also have no ball control fallback. Interestingly, their defense has the identical problem ours does, and is ranked 3 places lower than we are in Points Against nationally. Exactly what I would expect.

Here is what ESPN has 3rd down conversions at:http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct

44% (40th in the NCAA) We've also converted 11 4th down attempts, which would bring the number to 54% of the time we get to 3rd down, we convert a first down; whether it be on 3rd down or 4th down.

(11-05-2014 12:58 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 11:31 AM)ODUalum78 Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 11:07 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  The 3rd down conversion numbers are for games that do not include FCS teams.

We actually won time of possession vs. Western Kentucky.

Our defense getting stops increases our time of possession.

Then that makes it worse for us. Without the FCS Hampton @ 72% then, we probably drop below 31%, putting is in the bottom 10 group of schools in the nation.

I am not surprised at all. The WKU offense is just a better version of ours. They likely never win TOP. They also have no ball control fallback. Interestingly, their defense has the identical problem ours does, and is ranked 3 places lower than we are in Points Against nationally. Exactly what I would expect.

Here is what ESPN has 3rd down conversions at:http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/downs/sort/thirdDownConvPct

44% (40th in the NCAA) We've also converted 11 4th down attempts, which would bring the number to 54% of the time we get to 3rd down, we convert a first down; whether it be on 3rd down or 4th down.

I can't explain the dichotomy between sources. When you first posted your figures there was so much difference that I did the math manually, so again I suggest that you do the arithmetic yourself. Manual calculations showed us at 39.8 percent with HSU. Without HSU's 72% it is worse.
I also don't understand your source listing only 124 FBS programs, as there are 128.

Using the WKU game as an example is misleading in that it is almost a mirror image of us with the same TOP woes and the same defensive woes. WKU actually supports, not refutes my premise.