Quote:A 12-1 NIU team would have a great shot at the Access Bowl! I don't care if they lose by 40 at Arkansas. They would have a great shot at the Access Bowl. There will only be 1 maybe 2 undefeated teams. NIU went to the Orange Bowl at 12-1. There also will be only a few 1-loss teams. Make no mistake about it the coaches and players have the Access Bowl as their goal!
True. However, you have the old Big East being in the Group of Five, and only the best will go.
Marshall has the best chance of going undefeated. They could very well lose a game of course -- which the team they lose to (@Akron or CUSAC) would need to be viably as good as @Arkansas. So I wouldn't say 40 pts losing to Arkansas. I would say close game + Arkansas holding their own admirably in the SEC with a good improvement from last year.
With that said though, ya got Cinci, UCF, BYU, and East Carolina to compete for, for a 1-loss year.
Marshall & NIU have the weakest schedules, so I would say for them, they would Really want to be undefeated, as a 1-loss tie to a 1-loss Big East/American Athletic team or BYU is not going to be enough for the Committee to select them.
The year NIU made it was because of the BCS score (which officially doesn't matter; it only influences Committee's analysis somewhat, I guess) -- NIU lost by 1 pt in the opener and won the rest of the way. That helped their score. And they got very lucky which you cannot Hope to re-produce with 1-loss under that system.
HERE, the luck is slightly better because a G5 *has* to go, but the old Big East is now part of the G5, so a tough SoS will be needed if there's no undefeated team.
Unless it's Marshall as the only 1-loss team, there's no way they'll select NIU with 1-loss if BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, or East Carolina has only 1 loss (see their schedules).
NIU needs to beat Arkansas -- otherwise, they need those teams to beat up on themselves!