For argument's sake, assume that the Big XII is ready for a championship game and can justify financially a move to 14 teams. I realize that the networks would have to want this and boost their deals accordingly. In THIS scenario, other P5 schools are not available and BYU is not coming. The Big XII, again in THIS scenario, decides that moving west is not in their interests and that metro schools are acceptable. They invite Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and Tulane (substitute one of the Florida schools if you like, the following question would remain).

The question is, with the American spread from SMU to Florida to UConn, would it survive, backfilling with MAC, CUSA, or Sunbelt schools? Do you think it would dissolve and new conferences formed? Maybe the eastern schools would want to stay together, but SMU, Tulsa and maybe Tulane would be pretty far away from the east coast schools and I think a dilution of the membership would make those trips less desirable. I suppose the point I am getting to is that if the Big XII expands with three or more American schools, I would question the viability of the AAC long term.

I think they go for a Directional Florida school over UH.

There's just no way the 4 current Texas schools will vote for yet another Texas recruiting mouth to feed, particularly one that A) yet again doesnt add to the footprint or address the issue of not enough viewers outside TX and B) can go to those prize Houston recruits and say "Hey, why go all the way to Lubbock, Waco or Fort Worth when you can stay here at home where momma can see all your games?"

U_F on the other hand can open up the rich FL recruiting grounds, get the B12 further into the Eastern TZ and expand viewership outside of TX.

...And in full disclosure I'd win a bet with my sip cousin entitled "which Florida schools actually end up in the B12". He says FSU/the U while I said the U_Fs.

(11-26-2013 10:40 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  I think they go for a Directional Florida school over UH.

There's just no way the 4 current Texas schools will vote for yet another Texas recruiting mouth to feed, particularly one that A) yet again doesnt add to the footprint or address the issue of not enough viewers outside TX and B) can go to those prize Houston recruits and say "Hey, why go all the way to Lubbock, Waco or Fort Worth when you can stay here at home where momma can see all your games?"

U_F on the other hand can open up the rich FL recruiting grounds, get the B12 further into the Eastern TZ and expand viewership outside of TX.

...And in full disclosure I'd win a bet with my sip cousin entitled "which Florida schools actually end up in the B12". He says FSU/the U while I said the U_Fs.

Fine. Say it's Cincinnati, Memphis and the two Florida schools. Does the AAC survive losing those schools or do they dissolve and create two conferences?

the b12 has 2 options

option A: we wanna milk this conference for everything its worth before it folds
1. cincy
2. ucf

option B: we want to rebuild this conference and make it viable long term
1. colorado state
2. ucf
3. usf
4. rice

You know, I should have titled this thread "Fantasy realignment -- AAC Edition."

I say go with Houston, Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF. pick up 3 decent available Football schools and along the way You are adding 2 very strong Basketball programs to keep Kansas happy. The AAC would probably add some Eastern schools and strengthen itself as a regional entity and let Tulsa, SMU join MWC.

I also do not think another Texas team will be added. I still feel the candidates for expansion are in no particular order: BYU, Cinncinnati, UCF, USF, and UConn.

To answer your question, yes the AAC will survive. In the way the BE survived incursions it will backfill. The other conference members in the G5 will jump at the chance to be in the AAC, if not for the potential to move into the P5, then to get better tv money and exposure.

Big 12 should add Northern Illinois, Cincinnati, BYU and Colorado State or Air Force.

(11-26-2013 10:45 AM)john01992 Wrote:  the b12 has 2 options

option A: we wanna milk this conference for everything its worth before it folds
1. cincy
2. ucf

option B: we want to rebuild this conference and make it viable long term
1. colorado state
2. ucf
3. usf
4. rice

I agree on the first three maybe. You lost me at Rice though...

(11-26-2013 10:43 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  Fine. Say it's Cincinnati, Memphis and the two Florida schools. Does the AAC survive losing those schools or do they dissolve and create two conferences?

Under that cicumstance, I'd like to see a return to a more geographical conference setup.

Houston, SMU, USM, UAB, Tulane, Rice, Tulsa, maybe ULL and/or La Tech, Ark St, perhaps UTSA and/or UTEP. If you don't take UTEP, you can go farther east including schools like ECU, maybe a FIU or FAU. I don't know much about some of the newer Sun Belt schools, but perhaps Georgia St, South Alabama or Appalachian St could be included as well.

I'd like to UConn join a more northern conference. Geographically they and Buffalo would make such a great fit in the Big 10. Key word there being geographically...

All that said though...doubtful any of the above happens.

Fantasy Big 12 realignment, I'd rather let West Virginia go to ACC or SEC, and build up to the West with flagships type schools. Adding New Mexico, Colorado St, and BYU would be a great way to grow. Even though the Big 12 controls most of Texas, they don't control Houston nearly as much. If you wanted to improve the academic profile of the conference, you could add Rice and Tulane to really pick it up. UH has pretty solid athletics and could be a consideration, but I don't think they bring enough academically or viewership wise to get an invite.

(11-26-2013 01:01 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(11-26-2013 10:45 AM)john01992 Wrote:  the b12 has 2 options

option A: we wanna milk this conference for everything its worth before it folds
1. cincy
2. ucf

option B: we want to rebuild this conference and make it viable long term
1. colorado state
2. ucf
3. usf
4. rice

I agree on the first three maybe. You lost me at Rice though...

I think Memphis, Cinci, USF, and UCF could happen---but now you simply have created a new island in Florida. I could also see BYU, Cinci, ECU, and Memphis---that seems a little more geographically viable. I don't see Rice---If a Texas team gets added it would be Houston. That said, I just don't think the B12 adds another Texas school.

The AAC--could go either way. The badly weakened AAC could lose Tulsa, Houston, and SMU to the MW (with another Texas school--ether UTSA or Tx State). I could see Temple and UConn joining the Big East and slipping football in the MAC. Navy goes back to indy and the rest head to CUSA.

On the other hand, if the AAC lost Cinci USF, and UCF---the AAC could add Umass, Ohio, and ODU and the remaining member would have closer rivals. If the AAC instead loses ECU, Memphis, and Cinci---the AAC can rebuild with UMass, Ohio, and NIU.

The real danger to the AAC is if the Big-12 AND the Big-10 both make moves. That scenario probably wipes the AAC off the face of the earth.

USF & UCF = the 13th & 20th TV markets and Florida recruiting

That way if you bring both, every big 12 school plays in Florida every year...

I like it!

(11-26-2013 02:32 PM)TyBull Wrote:  USF & UCF = the 13th & 20th TV markets and Florida recruiting

That way if you bring both, every big 12 school plays in Florida every year...

I like it!

Fresno State and SDSU to put the bite on the PAC12. Add lots of tv sets.

(11-26-2013 02:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(11-26-2013 01:01 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  

(11-26-2013 10:45 AM)john01992 Wrote:  the b12 has 2 options

option A: we wanna milk this conference for everything its worth before it folds
1. cincy
2. ucf

option B: we want to rebuild this conference and make it viable long term
1. colorado state
2. ucf
3. usf
4. rice

I agree on the first three maybe. You lost me at Rice though...

I think Memphis, Cinci, USF, and UCF could happen---but now you simply have created a new island in Florida. I could also see BYU, Cinci, ECU, and Memphis---that seems a little more geographically viable. I don't see Rice---If a Texas team gets added it would be Houston. That said, I just don't think the B12 adds another Texas school.

The AAC--could go either way. The badly weakened AAC could lose Tulsa, Houston, and SMU to the MW (with another Texas school--ether UTSA or Tx State). I could see Temple and UConn joining the Big East and slipping football in the MAC. Navy goes back to indy and the rest head to CUSA.

On the other hand, if the AAC lost Cinci USF, and UCF---the AAC could add Umass, Ohio, and ODU and the remaining member would have closer rivals. If the AAC instead loses ECU, Memphis, and Cinci---the AAC can rebuild with UMass, Ohio, and NIU.

The real danger to the AAC is if the Big-12 AND the Big-10 both make moves. That scenario probably wipes the AAC off the face of the earth.

All of that sounds reasonable coog, except that I have never understood people's fascination with UMass. So they have had some success in basketball. They don't move the needle at all in football.

UMass 2013 attendance
- Sept. 7 vs. Maine: 15,624
- Sept. 21 vs. Vanderbilt: 16,419
- Oct. 12 vs. Miami: 21,707
- Oct. 26 vs. Western Michigan: 20,571
- Nov. 2 vs. Northern Illinois: 10,061
- Nov. 16 vs. Akron: 10,599
---------------

Total attendance: 94,981
Avg. attendance: 15,830.2

They had something called Band Day for the Miami game to boost attendance over 21,000. None of the above smacks of big time college football to me.

(11-26-2013 02:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The AAC--could go either way. The badly weakened AAC could lose Tulsa, Houston, and SMU to the MW (with another Texas school--ether UTSA or Tx State). I could see Temple and UConn joining the Big East and slipping football in the MAC. Navy goes back to indy and the rest head to CUSA.

I think this is the ultimate scenario. I see UCF, USF, Cincy and Memphis going to the Big 12 as the most likely case of the ones proposed (two schools in FL is not an island).

If that happens, the AAC is essentially dead. UConn will most likely bolt - go Indy football and join the Big East in everything else.

SMU, UH will run, no sprint to the MWC - that's where they belonged anyway (MWC doesn't need Tulsa).

The leftovers of the AAC will pick up the scraps not already chosen earlier from CUSA (Marshall, USM, Rice, UAB) along with maybe a few from the ODU, FIU, FAU, JMU, UTEP, TXST, UNT, crowd.

I don't see any defections from the MAC going to the new, new CUSA aka the New American Athletic Conference.

Oh, and Navy never arrives - they stay Indy.

.

If two schools leave the american they will no longer have a tv contract. What the schools do in terms of conference affiliation will depend on who gets taken. If the teams in the op leave I don't think the American will rebuild. Uconn prays for an invite somewhere and probably heads with temple to the Mac. Western schools could head to the mw or make another conference. u_f/ecu will probably try to stick together but where will they go? Or do they make a new conference based in the south filled with cusa/sunbelt schools?

That said I don't see them taking 4 schools if these are the options they are working with and if they expand it will be to get a ccg which means two schools. 1 to make wvu happy Cincy and the other somewhere around Texas tulane/New Mexico/col state. I'll also add Memphis just cause but I don't think they are a legitimate option.

The big 12 dosent need another island. They have texas recruits they don't need Florida recruits or the exposure there. Would they like it sure but they don't need it and they don't want to leave the Texas area.

(11-26-2013 05:00 PM)DBpirate Wrote:  The big 12 dosent need another island. They have texas recruits they don't need Florida recruits or the exposure there. Would they like it sure but they don't need it and they don't want to leave the Texas area.

I'm not convinced that Florida would be an island. UCF and USF would be great additions for the Big XII, travel partners and along with Cincy the conference would have 4 programs in the Eastern Time Zone.

No islands, recruiting in both Texas and Florida and puts the conference in the Tampa and Orlando TV markets.

That's a win, win, win.

(11-26-2013 12:20 PM)jaredf29 Wrote:  To answer your question, yes the AAC will survive. In the way the BE survived incursions it will backfill. The other conference members in the G5 will jump at the chance to be in the AAC, if not for the potential to move into the P5, then to get better tv money and exposure.

There's a pecking order. AAC is above CUSA which is above the MAC and Sun Belt. The question is what happens to CUSA if all they are left with is former Sun Belt teams? 9 of the 14 current members were previously full members of the Sun Belt. Only UTEP, UTSA, Rice, USM and Marshall weren't.