(10-08-2013 05:39 PM)Longhorn Wrote: (10-08-2013 11:59 AM)Dukes84 Wrote: I've said it from the beginning of the season....this does not appear to be a playoff team. Can they get better? Certainly. Dukes will have to win at least four of next six to get consideration for at-large berth. That's a tall order. Corners are very vulnerable; d-line while experienced is hardly dominant and same can be said of offensive line; Dae-Quan looks a step slow and does not break tackles typically; and kicking game has been a disaster. Team has also had issues with penalties and turnovers. Tight end has also been a weak spot. And, most importantly, Birdsong has yet to develop into a top-notch QB. His growth and development down the stretch is perhaps the single biggest key to the team, along with cleaning up the mistakes. Integration of Daniel Brown back into the offense and play of Khalid Abdullah have been positives.
Your correct that JMU's corners are young, and have been vulnerable, and our OL has been suspect at times. Yet, the main premise of your post that the 2013 JMU team was never, and is not today, a playoff caliber team, is pure blarney. This JMU team can beat, and/or lose, to any team it plays in FCS. That's not to argue that ability to beat any other FCS team makes the 2013 JMU team a lock for the playoffs, or a serious NC contender, but it does make the 2013 Dukes a playoff caliber team.
And while I'm at it, let me share a few other thoughts about your post...
You state JMU's DL isn't dominant. Okay. Have you looked at the stat sheet and checked our opponents rushing record? (102.5 ypg/2.7 ypc). And the number of sacks? (18 for 121 yards lost through 6 games). I don't know how you define "dominant"...but a per carry avg. of only 2.7 yards against our DL and 3 sacks a game sure as heck ain't shabby. At the FCS level, there are few teams with a better DL.
You've also identified our TE as a weak spot. While TE certainly hasn't been the focal point of our passing attack, it's not "weak" either. Deane Cheatham is a TE/FB, and has already caught 10 balls for 123 yards and 2 TDs. Overall, JMU's TEs have caught 16 (out of 106 team completions) for 171 yards and 3 TDs this season...certainly a respectably record to date. Encouragingly, throws to the TE seem to be on the increase over the last couple of games. I think a better description of our talent at TE is "under-utilized"...not "weak".
You also state that Birdsong is "yet to develop into a top-notch QB"...which is true enough...in-as-much he isn't ready for the NFL. Yet, after only 8 starts as a true Sophomore he has put up some solid numbers (137.1 QB rating; 106-174-7; 60.9%; 1312 yards; 11TDs; 56 (longest); 218.7 ypg). No doubt he's made some bad plays...but I argue he's playing well, and his development is trending in the right direction. As you wrote, his growth will play a big part (if not the biggest) in JMU's second half success (or failure). Let's hope MB proves you wrong, and leads this team on a playoff run.
Longhorn --
I would be more than happy to be proven wrong. I'm just relaying what I've seen through the first half of the season, having watched most of the game action played to date, albeit only the DE game in person.
You have to temper any statistical analysis you might cite against the level of competition that JMU has played to date. Akron has won only one game all season and was demolished something like 40 to 3 last weekend versus Ohio. If you go to the Cleveland site, they're trying to figure out how to get another win this season. DE was summarily dismissed by Maine, 62-28, last weekend and I believe they lost to Navy, 51-7. Of course, we lost to both of those teams.
The other four opponents, in no specific order, were Charlotte, CCSU, St. Francis and Albany, hardly a murderer's row. In fact, most disconcerting of those efforts was the near loss to St. Francis, a team that JMU dominated a year ago or so.
If you want to parse my words, then you can certainly find fault. The most, and perhaps only, arguable point that I made pertains to the defensive line. The d-line played beautifully against Akron, no question. But that same defense also gave up 22 second half points to DE, albeit on short fields on two occasions, and could not hold Akron when it most mattered. A year ago, this same defensive line could not generate sacks without blitzing. Has the return of Tyler Snow helped? Yes, of course, as he's one of the units better players. We'll see how they do against better competition going forward.
With respect to tight end, Matthews himself called it the weakest part of his team earlier this season. In fact, he just benched Richardson (was that his name) for Josh Hogan in the Albany game.
And with respect to the overall talent level of the team, which I've criticized in other threads, Stephon Robertson himself said that this team was not as talented as those in years past.
Lastly, if you go to the most recent Sagarin ratings, that statistical service does not view JMU as a serious playoff threat at this point, ranking them as the approximate no. 37 1-AA team in the country (I could be off by a few slots because I looked very quickly).
Can this team make a run to the playoffs this season? Yes, they can, but it will be extremely difficult and not likely, in my opinion. I see this team winning somewhere between 5 and 7 games on the season. Let's hope I'm wrong.