http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaab-the-...ncaab.html

2. LOUISVILLE

Best-case scenario: Even without Peyton Siva and Gorgui Dieng, a Louisville team that returns eight of its top 10 players turns out to be better than its national title team of a year ago. Highly touted junior college transfer Chris Jones capably replaces Siva at point guard, breakout star Montrezl Harrell protects the rim nearly as well as Dieng did even at 6-foot-8, onetime wildcard Russ Smith embraces his leadership role and a slimmer Wayne Blackshear shows the explosiveness he had in high school. The Cards run away with the league title in their lone season in the American Athletic Conference and outclass their first five NCAA tournament foes, setting up a dream title game against rival Kentucky. A now-healthy Kevin Ware comes off the bench to play the role of hero, scoring 21 points to help the Cardinals become the first team since 2006-07 Florida to win back-to-back titles.

Worst-case scenario: Having the core of a championship team back turns out to be more of a curse than a blessing. Complacency contributes to a handful of unexpected regular season losses, as does the inability to replace the leadership of Siva and the rim protecting of Dieng. Many expect Louisville to flip the switch in March and make it back to the Final Four, but the Cardinals run into an opponent that protects the ball and slows down the tempo in the Sweet 16. Luke Hancock's outside shots aren't falling and Louisville isn't getting easy buckets out of its swarming defense, so Russ Smith takes it upon himself to go into hero mode. It doesn't work. Russdiculous caps his college career with a 3-for-16 shooting night, and the Cards lose by 11. Ten days later, a still-healing Kevin Ware watches from his couch as Kentucky cuts down the nets after capturing its second national title in three years.


13. MEMPHIS

Best-case scenario: It's fitting Michael Dixon is one of the stars for Memphis this season because Josh Pastner's club resembles the 2011-12 Missouri team Dixon helped lead to 30 wins. Pastner unleashes four-guard looks on slower opponents, relying on 6-foot-4 Chris Crawford to slow down bigger forwards defensively while taking advantage of his edge on the perimeter on offense. It works, just as it did for Missouri two years ago. Joe Jackson makes good decisions with the ball in his hands, Dixon and Geron Johnson attack the paint at will and Shaq Goodwin plays with more consistency as a sophomore, protecting the rim and providing back-to-the-basket scoring and rebounding. Memphis also takes advantage of its depth, getting production from an outstanding freshman class in complementary roles. The Tigers finish a close second to Louisville in their inaugural season in the American Athletic Conference, but they outlast the Cardinals in March, erasing the one remaining hole in Pastner's resume with a deep NCAA tournament run. The run ends in the Final Four, but the city celebrates as though Memphis has won a national title, throwing the Tigers a parade down Beale Street.

Worst-case scenario: Memphis more resembles 2011-12 Missouri during its NCAA tournament loss to Norfolk State than during its 30-win regular season. The Crawford experiment is a bust because he lacks the size to defend opposing power forwards and the quickness to take advantage of the mismatch at the other end. Worse yet, Goodwin gets pushed around on the block and is foul-prone and inconsistent, forcing Pastner to play 300-plus-pound freshman Dominic Woodson for more minutes than he'd like. Memphis' backcourt is productive, but Dixon's rust and Jackson's ill-advised decisions with the ball prevent it from living up to preseason hype. The Tigers land in the eight-nine game in the NCAA tournament and exit in the round of 64 for the third time in the past four seasons. There's no parade on Beale Street when they return. Only grumbling. Lots of grumbling.


21. UCONN

Best-case scenario: Shabazz Napier, Ryan Boatright and Omar Calhoun combine to form one of the nation's better backcourts as expected, but it's improved play from the frontcourt that fuels UConn's strong season. Power forward Deandre Daniels raises his level of play to match what he delivered during the final seven games of last season when he averaged 17 points and 7.2 rebounds. Tyler Olander returns from suspension, freshman Kentan Facey is ruled eligible by the NCAA and 7-footer Amida Brimah forces his way into the rotation, helping UConn go from a poor rebounding team to an average one. Last year, UConn was ineligible for the postseason yet played hard every night under Kevin Ollie, amassing a 20-10 record and a seventh-place Big East finish. The Huskies play even more relentlessly with more on the line this year, finishing second to Louisville in league play and making a deep run in the NCAA tournament. Athletic director Warde Manuel's decision to anoint Ollie as UConn's permanent coach last December looks more and more shrewd by the day.

Worst-case scenario: UConn's backcourt matches last year's production, but frontcourt issues limit how good the Huskies can be. Daniels more closely resembles the player he was during the first half of last season rather than the second and none of the other big men assert themselves as worthy of the other frontcourt position. Olander remains in Ollie's doghouse all season, Facey is ruled ineligible and Brimah is too raw to help much this year. As a result, UConn gets pushed around in the paint again and finishes with similar rebounding numbers as last year when it was second-to-last in the Big East. Though Napier, Boatright and Calhoun do enough to help the Huskies finish fourth in the AAC and sneak into the NCAA tournament, Ollie's team isn't good enough to stick around very long. Behind closed doors, Manuel muses about whether he should have sought someone with head coaching experience as Jim Calhoun's permanent replacement.

I see --- Memphis' best run is finishing in the Final Four but only finishing 2nd behind Louisville in-conference? Honestly, I think Louisville will miss Siva more than most people seem to think. Guy was the heart and soul of that team.

AAC is gonna be pretty sick this year

Pretty fair assessment of the Huskies. Only disagreement is that the best case would be second in conference. I follow the train of thought that replacing Siva and Deng is much more difficult for the Cardinals than alot of the analysts expect and that this conference is a bit more open for the taking.

Isn't that the same Chris Jones who played with Adonis at Melrose? The same Chris Jones who was criticized for having a very 1-sided game...an incredible scorer, and not much else.

Maybe JC has improved his overall game, if not, the switch from Siva to Jones might be a little rougher the UL fans like.

(10-02-2013 11:34 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  I see --- Memphis' best run is finishing in the Final Four but only finishing 2nd behind Louisville in-conference? Honestly, I think Louisville will miss Siva more than most people seem to think. Guy was the heart and soul of that team.

Miss? Yes. Crumble without? No. A lot is glossed over in the tournament, but he really did not play great during the regular season. Twice he had to be benched for Kevin Ware when playing Syracuse. Truth be told Russ Smith was the heart of the team: Siva was the soul. Russ ignited the team, and set the tone. Siva steered the ship. However the man EVERYONE followed and listened to is still on the team. His name is Luke Hancock. There is a reason HE was the captain, and was actually a captain the prior year when he was sitting out.

You don't get better because you replace a player like Siva. That just doesn't happen. But others can grow to fill his void which can make you better overall. Ware did it when Siva could not handle MCW at Cuse and he had to step up. Hancock did that in the Final Four, switching over to play guard when Russ struggled and Ware was on crutches. Harrell did it when Behanan could not find any openings with the sheer size of Syracuse' zone, while Behanan did it when Dieng was forced to play high post pick and roll, and someone had to step up down low.

This I will say. Memphis is going to be in for a rude awakening when they play the likes of Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and USF. Not because they are better (only Louisville likely fits that mode) it's because of the sheer physicality in which Big East basketball was played. When Louisville entered the Big East, fresh off a Final Four, we thought we'd fit right in. They beat the living **** out of us from a physical standpoint Cincy and Marquette too. Same for DePaul (who people forget was a regular tourney team at that time).

Unless the AAC has a new referee staff and a new philosophy that won't allow it, the physicality of the returning teams along with the notion of Memphis best lineup maybe being a four guard lineup, that spells bad news. Pull that on Cincinnati or Rutgers and you are likely to have two guys leave on stretchers.

(10-02-2013 11:34 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  I see --- Memphis' best run is finishing in the Final Four but only finishing 2nd behind Louisville in-conference? Honestly, I think Louisville will miss Siva more than most people seem to think. Guy was the heart and soul of that team.

When it comes to Louisville...this says it all....from the movie about Louisville Native and Fan Muhammad Ali...

The thing is Louisville has FOUR backcourt players who can play point. Jones, Russ Smith (who played the backup point the past two seasons), Kevin Ware, and Terry Rozier.

Oh yeah, and if all else fails, Luke Hancock is not only a good point guard, but he was THE backup point guard to Siva until Kevin Ware emerged. Now he "just" plays point forward. This team actually has a LOT more depth than last year's team, who played an 9 man rotation for most of the year with only ten scholarship players available to play (Mangok Mathiang was ineligible, Mike Marra was out with a second torn ACL, and Angel Nunez transferred midseason). This year everyone is healthy, and 13 healthy bodies, 12 scholarship players, will compete for probably 11 rotation spots.

(10-02-2013 12:47 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(10-02-2013 11:34 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  I see --- Memphis' best run is finishing in the Final Four but only finishing 2nd behind Louisville in-conference? Honestly, I think Louisville will miss Siva more than most people seem to think. Guy was the heart and soul of that team.

When it comes to Louisville...this says it all....from the movie about Louisville Native and Fan Muhammad Ali...

I don't like Ali. He treated many people with disrespect.

(10-02-2013 12:54 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  The thing is Louisville has FOUR backcourt players who can play point. Jones, Russ Smith (who played the backup point the past two seasons), Kevin Ware, and Terry Rozier.

Oh yeah, and if all else fails, Luke Hancock is not only a good point guard, but he was THE backup point guard to Siva until Kevin Ware emerged. Now he "just" plays point forward. This team actually has a LOT more depth than last year's team, who played an 9 man rotation for most of the year with only ten scholarship players available to play (Mangok Mathiang was ineligible, Mike Marra was out with a second torn ACL, and Angel Nunez transferred midseason). This year everyone is healthy, and 13 healthy bodies, 12 scholarship players, will compete for probably 11 rotation spots.

Fair enough...that article made it seem like a lot hinges on Jones. Then again, it makes Crawford sound like the most important player on ours.

(10-02-2013 12:45 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(10-02-2013 11:34 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  I see --- Memphis' best run is finishing in the Final Four but only finishing 2nd behind Louisville in-conference? Honestly, I think Louisville will miss Siva more than most people seem to think. Guy was the heart and soul of that team.

Miss? Yes. Crumble without? No. A lot is glossed over in the tournament, but he really did not play great during the regular season. Twice he had to be benched for Kevin Ware when playing Syracuse. Truth be told Russ Smith was the heart of the team: Siva was the soul. Russ ignited the team, and set the tone. Siva steered the ship. However the man EVERYONE followed and listened to is still on the team. His name is Luke Hancock. There is a reason HE was the captain, and was actually a captain the prior year when he was sitting out.

You don't get better because you replace a player like Siva. That just doesn't happen. But others can grow to fill his void which can make you better overall. Ware did it when Siva could not handle MCW at Cuse and he had to step up. Hancock did that in the Final Four, switching over to play guard when Russ struggled and Ware was on crutches. Harrell did it when Behanan could not find any openings with the sheer size of Syracuse' zone, while Behanan did it when Dieng was forced to play high post pick and roll, and someone had to step up down low.

This I will say. Memphis is going to be in for a rude awakening when they play the likes of Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and USF. Not because they are better (only Louisville likely fits that mode) it's because of the sheer physicality in which Big East basketball was played. When Louisville entered the Big East, fresh off a Final Four, we thought we'd fit right in. They beat the living **** out of us from a physical standpoint Cincy and Marquette too. Same for DePaul (who people forget was a regular tourney team at that time).

Unless the AAC has a new referee staff and a new philosophy that won't allow it, the physicality of the returning teams along with the notion of Memphis best lineup maybe being a four guard lineup, that spells bad news. Pull that on Cincinnati or Rutgers and you are likely to have two guys leave on stretchers.

I also remember the Big East being offensively handicap. Those games against Louisville and NotreDame were barn burners

I think it's safe to say Louisville, UConn and Memphis should be at the top of the conference, but beyond that, nobody really has a clue what will happen. That's part of what makes it fun. Louisville lost two important players, Memphis has at least 6 new players who should get rotation minutes (Seniors Dixon and Pellom, and freshmen Nichols, King, Iverson and Woodson), and UConn didn't play any tourney ball last year.

And Cincy and a few others will have good moments, too.

4-5 bids this year IMO

(10-02-2013 01:57 PM)Geotag Wrote:  

(10-02-2013 12:45 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  Unless the AAC has a new referee staff and a new philosophy that won't allow it, the physicality of the returning teams along with the notion of Memphis best lineup maybe being a four guard lineup, that spells bad news. Pull that on Cincinnati or Rutgers and you are likely to have two guys leave on stretchers.

I also remember the Big East being offensively handicap. Those games against Louisville and NotreDame were barn burners

That happened a lot too. Georgetown and Seton Hall too. They made you play ugly.

(10-02-2013 01:57 PM)Geotag Wrote:  

(10-02-2013 12:45 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  

(10-02-2013 11:34 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  I see --- Memphis' best run is finishing in the Final Four but only finishing 2nd behind Louisville in-conference? Honestly, I think Louisville will miss Siva more than most people seem to think. Guy was the heart and soul of that team.

Miss? Yes. Crumble without? No. A lot is glossed over in the tournament, but he really did not play great during the regular season. Twice he had to be benched for Kevin Ware when playing Syracuse. Truth be told Russ Smith was the heart of the team: Siva was the soul. Russ ignited the team, and set the tone. Siva steered the ship. However the man EVERYONE followed and listened to is still on the team. His name is Luke Hancock. There is a reason HE was the captain, and was actually a captain the prior year when he was sitting out.

You don't get better because you replace a player like Siva. That just doesn't happen. But others can grow to fill his void which can make you better overall. Ware did it when Siva could not handle MCW at Cuse and he had to step up. Hancock did that in the Final Four, switching over to play guard when Russ struggled and Ware was on crutches. Harrell did it when Behanan could not find any openings with the sheer size of Syracuse' zone, while Behanan did it when Dieng was forced to play high post pick and roll, and someone had to step up down low.

This I will say. Memphis is going to be in for a rude awakening when they play the likes of Louisville, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and USF. Not because they are better (only Louisville likely fits that mode) it's because of the sheer physicality in which Big East basketball was played. When Louisville entered the Big East, fresh off a Final Four, we thought we'd fit right in. They beat the living **** out of us from a physical standpoint Cincy and Marquette too. Same for DePaul (who people forget was a regular tourney team at that time).

Unless the AAC has a new referee staff and a new philosophy that won't allow it, the physicality of the returning teams along with the notion of Memphis best lineup maybe being a four guard lineup, that spells bad news. Pull that on Cincinnati or Rutgers and you are likely to have two guys leave on stretchers.

I also remember the Big East being offensively handicap. Those games against Louisville and NotreDame were barn burners

Funny. 2 of the last 3 NCAA champions came from the big east and that same league that cant score had 3 #1 seeds on 09 and has basically had a team in the final 4 every year.

I think you UL fans will be surprised.
Last year y'all struggled for most of the game. We almost had y'all but let it slip away.
And i believe we have the right players now to not let leads slip away like that.

Its a new team, a lot of changes.
You'll soon see.

Soooo --- all new officials this season or did the former Big East officials 'stay' with the AAC?

(10-02-2013 03:19 PM)grapes Wrote:  I think you UL fans will be surprised.
Last year y'all struggled for most of the game. We almost had y'all but let it slip away.
And i believe we have the right players now to not let leads slip away like that.

Its a new team, a lot of changes.
You'll soon see.

I think Memphis fans will be a little surprised. This isn't C-USA you are walking into. Remember the great Josh Pastner has yet to beat a ranked top 25 team.

(10-02-2013 03:25 PM)L1C4 Wrote:  

(10-02-2013 03:19 PM)grapes Wrote:  I think you UL fans will be surprised.
Last year y'all struggled for most of the game. We almost had y'all but let it slip away.
And i believe we have the right players now to not let leads slip away like that.

Its a new team, a lot of changes.
You'll soon see.

I think Memphis fans will be a little surprised. This isn't C-USA you are walking into. Remember the great Josh Pastner has yet to beat a ranked top 25 team.

Yes he...... ah forget it.

Quote:Only grumbling. Lots of grumbling.

That's going to happen regardless, even if our boys win the whole shebang.