(10-13-2013 05:49 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Maybe I'm in the minority but I think Iowa will pull a big upset or two. Ruddock looks good to me and the MSU defense that just kept him in check might be the best in the B1G. Purdue probably isn't going to help us.

Wouldn't be surprised if they beat Wisconsin at Kinnick.

(10-13-2013 09:36 PM)HuskiePride12 Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 05:49 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Maybe I'm in the minority but I think Iowa will pull a big upset or two. Ruddock looks good to me and the MSU defense that just kept him in check might be the best in the B1G. Purdue probably isn't going to help us.

Wouldn't be surprised if they beat Wisconsin at Kinnick.

I think everyone is underrating Wisconsin because of that BS loss the Pac refs caused.. They put the fear of god into Ohio State on the road and slapped Northwestern silly without their #1 WR. I'd have them ahead of both FS and NIU, honestly.

(10-13-2013 11:29 PM)ROFLcopter Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 09:36 PM)HuskiePride12 Wrote:  

(10-13-2013 05:49 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Maybe I'm in the minority but I think Iowa will pull a big upset or two. Ruddock looks good to me and the MSU defense that just kept him in check might be the best in the B1G. Purdue probably isn't going to help us.

Wouldn't be surprised if they beat Wisconsin at Kinnick.

I think everyone is underrating Wisconsin because of that BS loss the Pac refs caused.. They put the fear of god into Ohio State on the road and slapped Northwestern silly without their #1 WR. I'd have them ahead of both FS and NIU, honestly.

Wisconsin does seem to suffer from a bit of a poll bias historically. However I also think NU is just not as good as advertised, they might be a little soft physically.

The latest Simulated BCS Guru Standings

It is so fun to see NIU ranked and in the company with some of the best teams in the country. A BCS Bowl is the longest of long shots. It would be a great outcome to win a MACC and finish the season ranked. The MAC is stronger than many people realize.

(10-14-2013 10:07 AM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  The latest Simulated BCS Guru Standings

Quote:Just wanted to provide a very very rough guess how I think the BCS projects right now. This is projecting 3 computers, which one or two of those may already be out since I ran the spreadsheet this is what I get

1 Alabama 0.984
2 Oregon 0.930
3 Clemson 0.896
4 Florida State 0.874
5 Ohio State 0.835
6 Louisana State 0.732
7 UCLA 0.679
8 Texas A&M 0.668
9 Louisville 0.618
10 Stanford 0.586
11 Miami-FL 0.584
12 Baylor 0.582
13 South Carolina 0.572
14 Missouri 0.567
15 Georgia 0.426
16 Texas Tech 0.375
17 Oklahoma 0.340
18 Virginia Tech 0.241
19 Fresno State 0.189
20 Oklahoma State .186
21 Northern Illinois 0.173
22 Florida 0.162

His Florida projection in my opinion is a bit high. I have them just behind NIU right now. I think his 16 projection for the median is too high at this point, and thus overestimating that last computer ranking for the Gators. But otherwise, our calculations seem to match up.

(10-14-2013 10:14 AM)bikechuck Wrote:  It is so fun to see NIU ranked and in the company with some of the best teams in the country. A BCS Bowl is the longest of long shots. It would be a great outcome to win a MACC and finish the season ranked. The MAC is stronger than many people realize.

Last year was the longest of long shots. This year is just a long shot...mostly because of Fresno State (and because the Huskies don't blow out anyone).

(10-14-2013 10:39 AM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  

(10-14-2013 10:14 AM)bikechuck Wrote:  It is so fun to see NIU ranked and in the company with some of the best teams in the country. A BCS Bowl is the longest of long shots. It would be a great outcome to win a MACC and finish the season ranked. The MAC is stronger than many people realize.

Last year was the longest of long shots. This year is just a long shot...mostly because of Fresno State (and because the Huskies don't blow out anyone).

A potentially under-the-radar big game for this Fresno/NIU BCS battle (of course all contingent on NIU winning) will be Boise vs BYU. If Boise takes this and Fresno can knock off Boise in the MWC, that may very well be enough to keep them out of range. A weaker Boise for a MWC championship would help us immensely, so go BYU!

(10-14-2013 10:27 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-14-2013 10:07 AM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  The latest Simulated BCS Guru Standings

Quote:Just wanted to provide a very very rough guess how I think the BCS projects right now. This is projecting 3 computers, which one or two of those may already be out since I ran the spreadsheet this is what I get

1 Alabama 0.984
2 Oregon 0.930
3 Clemson 0.896
4 Florida State 0.874
5 Ohio State 0.835
6 Louisana State 0.732
7 UCLA 0.679
8 Texas A&M 0.668
9 Louisville 0.618
10 Stanford 0.586
11 Miami-FL 0.584
12 Baylor 0.582
13 South Carolina 0.572
14 Missouri 0.567
15 Georgia 0.426
16 Texas Tech 0.375
17 Oklahoma 0.340
18 Virginia Tech 0.241
19 Fresno State 0.189
20 Oklahoma State .186
21 Northern Illinois 0.173
22 Florida 0.162

His Florida projection in my opinion is a bit high. I have them just behind NIU right now. I think his 16 projection for the median is too high at this point, and thus overestimating that last computer ranking for the Gators. But otherwise, our calculations seem to match up.

I think the Huskies should be at least a couple higher.

The Wolfe computer ranking is the only one being estimated. The Guru estimates that Wolfe will rank NIU worse than 25. If you look at Wolfe rankings last year, Ohio was ranked #13 in week 9 (#14 or #18 in week 8 but I can't find confirmation).

That would seem to suggest that the Wolfe rankings will favor the undefeated Huskies over teams just ahead of them. The teams just ahead of NIU have a very small lead which makes me think NIU should actually be ahead of Florida and Oklahoma State (and closer to or maybe even above Fresno State depending on where Wolfe sticks them).

It's nice to see in the guru's rankings that, although we are only #22, we are closer to #19 than we are to #23. Hopefully that's good for upward mobility, at least in the short-term.

(10-14-2013 12:21 PM)niubrad00 Wrote:  It's nice to see in the guru's rankings that, although we are only #22, we are closer to #19 than we are to #23. Hopefully that's good for upward mobility, at least in the short-term.

It is nice but the only thing I dont like is there is a good cluster of AQ teams in that 23-27 block meaning their wins will be highly exaggerated and given too much credit for.

(10-14-2013 10:57 AM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  

(10-14-2013 10:27 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-14-2013 10:07 AM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  The latest Simulated BCS Guru Standings

Quote:Just wanted to provide a very very rough guess how I think the BCS projects right now. This is projecting 3 computers, which one or two of those may already be out since I ran the spreadsheet this is what I get

1 Alabama 0.984
2 Oregon 0.930
3 Clemson 0.896
4 Florida State 0.874
5 Ohio State 0.835
6 Louisana State 0.732
7 UCLA 0.679
8 Texas A&M 0.668
9 Louisville 0.618
10 Stanford 0.586
11 Miami-FL 0.584
12 Baylor 0.582
13 South Carolina 0.572
14 Missouri 0.567
15 Georgia 0.426
16 Texas Tech 0.375
17 Oklahoma 0.340
18 Virginia Tech 0.241
19 Fresno State 0.189
20 Oklahoma State .186
21 Northern Illinois 0.173
22 Florida 0.162

His Florida projection in my opinion is a bit high. I have them just behind NIU right now. I think his 16 projection for the median is too high at this point, and thus overestimating that last computer ranking for the Gators. But otherwise, our calculations seem to match up.

I think the Huskies should be at least a couple higher.

The Wolfe computer ranking is the only one being estimated. The Guru estimates that Wolfe will rank NIU worse than 25. If you look at Wolfe rankings last year, Ohio was ranked #13 in week 9 (#14 or #18 in week 8 but I can't find confirmation).

That would seem to suggest that the Wolfe rankings will favor the undefeated Huskies over teams just ahead of them. The teams just ahead of NIU have a very small lead which makes me think NIU should actually be ahead of Florida and Oklahoma State (and closer to or maybe even above Fresno State depending on where Wolfe sticks them).

Thats exactly my point, he gave Fresno a 16 on the Wolfe which I think is too high. I used a much more reasonable projection for Wolfe which is why my calculation had us about 0.01 ahead of Florida.

Jerry Palm's BCS projection has NIU ranked one spot above Fresno, just barely.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs

(10-14-2013 02:00 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Jerry Palm's BCS projection has NIU ranked one spot above Fresno, just barely.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs

computers > humans

Don't know whether to believe Palm, as he was adamant about us not having enough to get in last year. Still nice to see. Just keep winning.

(10-14-2013 03:03 PM)clcfball11 Wrote:  Don't know whether to believe Palm, as he was adamant about us not having enough to get in last year. Still nice to see. Just keep winning.

Palm's BCS projection is subject to much error by neglecting the last computer, I wouldn't read much into it. By ignoring it , it is placing too high of a value on NIU's computer ranking over Fresno and inflating NIU too much. Fresno is probably ahead of us right now.

MD, I don't know how you keep all of this straight. Thanks for laying it out for us (me).

(10-14-2013 04:25 PM)DiehardHuskie Wrote:  MD, I don't know how you keep all of this straight. Thanks for laying it out for us (me).

The BCS has exposed the ultimate nerd in me haha. I have to say though, and I never would have ever imagined I'd feel this way, but I will be sad to see this go in a way. I still feel college football needs a playoff, but I think the system next year is a step backward for college football. At least with the computers, it would correct some of the human deficiencies. The Boise St. situation was the prime example last year of what happens when everything is left to humans.

This is not looking like much of a shakeup Saturday even if NIU does win. Most of the teams around us in the projected BCS should take care of business. MAYBE Tennessee gives South Carolina a game, and MAYBE TCU battles Oklahoma State for awhile and MAYBE West Virginia gives Texas Tech a game, but does not look good for too much movement.

#22 Florida @ 14 Missouri
#21 Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan
#20 Oklahoma State vs TCU
#19 Fresno State vs UNLV
#18 Virginia Tech IDLE
#17 Oklahoma @ Kansas
#16 Texas Tech @ West Virginia
#15 Georgia @ Vanderbilt
#13 South Carolina @ Tennessee
#12 Baylor vs Iowa State