1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

Good summary, nice thoughts. I like it all except the I don't see NIU running the table part.... Go Huskies! One game at a time till you cross the finish line!


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(10-03-2013 08:27 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I threw in the Anderson/hester ratings on my BCS projection spreadsheet and I have NIU at 21. NIU is 18th in the computer rankings, that is just unreal!

I used a Coaches Poll + Average of Coaches/AP to simulate the Harris, and for the 6th BCS computer that is not out yet, I used the Massey Composite Rankings.

http://www.godawgz.com/bcs_proj_week5.htm

That's reassuring, I agree with every spot 1 to 25 with the BCS guru except I had Missouri/Ok St switched. Those computers sure love Missouri.

(10-04-2013 01:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

Here is question, would a Louisville loss and NIU running the table vault NIU above Louisville. Normally with the teams ranked 23 and 7 you would say no but Louisville should make a very large drop in the BCS if they lose because their computer ranking is not as high as the human. Earlier it looked like everyone of their games was cupcake, but maybe UCF could be a slippery game for them even though its at home?

(10-04-2013 01:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

If Iowa beats OSU, that would be a nail in the coffin for Fresno, but that of course highly unlikely.

(10-04-2013 05:19 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 01:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

If Iowa beats OSU, that would be a nail in the coffin for Fresno, but that of course highly unlikely.

Iowa wining more than 2 games vs NU, Mich, Wis and Neb would be great for us.

(10-04-2013 05:19 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 01:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

If Iowa beats OSU, that would be a nail in the coffin for Fresno, but that of course highly unlikely.

I visited the Fresno board, they think NIU has no chance. They legit think these things.

1. Rutgers and Boise are both SIGNIFICANTLY better than Iowa
2. They constantly mention NIU 'squeaked' by Iowa, even though the three pt victory is more than their total margin of victory over Boise and Rutgers
3. They forgot they played all these games at home
4. No mention of the fact they wont play a full schedule

Now I will admit, we are all homers to our teams. But I acknowledge they have the head start and NIU played poorly against two weaker teams, but NIU has gone on the road and taken care of business. Winning at home by 1 pt is not impressive, IMO. Especially when a team from the weakest AQ team travels like 3000 miles and goes for the W in OT.

(10-04-2013 05:30 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 05:19 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 01:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

If Iowa beats OSU, that would be a nail in the coffin for Fresno, but that of course highly unlikely.

I visited the Fresno board, they think NIU has no chance. They legit think these things.

1. Rutgers and Boise are both SIGNIFICANTLY better than Iowa
2. They constantly mention NIU 'squeaked' by Iowa, even though the three pt victory is more than their total margin of victory over Boise and Rutgers
3. They forgot they played all these games at home
4. No mention of the fact they wont play a full schedule

Now I will admit, we are all homers to our teams. But I acknowledge they have the head start and NIU played poorly against two weaker teams, but NIU has gone on the road and taken care of business. Winning at home by 1 pt is not impressive, IMO. Especially when a team from the weakest AQ team travels like 3000 miles and goes for the W in OT.

They would have a good argument and be on the right side of that argument IF the MWC was as good as advertised. It is not. In fact Anderson Hester, the BCS computer based almost exclusively on SOS, has it as the worst conference in college football. SDSU, Boise have just fallen flat on their faces, no other way around that. NIU has the edge right now but the MWC championship game against Utah State (if they continue to win) just might be enough to vault them past NIU. However if Iowa continues to be successful, I don't even know if a good MWC win would be enough for Fresno State. Should be really fun to watch if they both can stay undefeated.

CORRECTION: I stand corrected on that, MWC/MAC are rated at about the same level right now.

And like someone said before we will know a lot more after the first Harris is released. If NIU is leading Fresno in the Harris poll, that would make it extremely hard for Fresno to overtake NIU if both are undefeated.

(10-04-2013 05:30 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 05:19 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 01:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

If Iowa beats OSU, that would be a nail in the coffin for Fresno, but that of course highly unlikely.

I visited the Fresno board, they think NIU has no chance. They legit think these things.

1. Rutgers and Boise are both SIGNIFICANTLY better than Iowa
2. They constantly mention NIU 'squeaked' by Iowa, even though the three pt victory is more than their total margin of victory over Boise and Rutgers
3. They forgot they played all these games at home
4. No mention of the fact they wont play a full schedule

Now I will admit, we are all homers to our teams. But I acknowledge they have the head start and NIU played poorly against two weaker teams, but NIU has gone on the road and taken care of business. Winning at home by 1 pt is not impressive, IMO. Especially when a team from the weakest AQ team travels like 3000 miles and goes for the W in OT.

Lets see how Fresno does this weekend...their D is as bad as NIU's.

Just wanted to provide a very very rough guess how I think the BCS projects right now. This is projecting 3 computers, which one or two of those may already be out since I ran the spreadsheet this is what I get

1 Alabama 0.984
2 Oregon 0.930
3 Clemson 0.896
4 Florida State 0.874
5 Ohio State 0.835
6 Louisana State 0.732
7 UCLA 0.679
8 Texas A&M 0.668
9 Louisville 0.618
10 Stanford 0.586
11 Miami-FL 0.584
12 Baylor 0.582
13 South Carolina 0.572
14 Missouri 0.567
15 Georgia 0.426
16 Texas Tech 0.375
17 Oklahoma 0.340
18 Virginia Tech 0.241
19 Fresno State 0.189
20 Oklahoma State .186
21 Northern Illinois 0.173
22 Florida 0.162
23 Auburn 0.109
24 Michigan 0.109
25 Washington 0.108

LOL

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 8m

BCS computer Colley Matrix: 11-A&M 12-Bay 13-Mia 14-VT 15-UH 16-NIU 17-TT 18-UL 19-Aub 20-SCar 21-OU 22-Fresno 23-OreSt 24-MSU 25-Mich

(10-13-2013 04:36 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  LOL

Brett McMurphy ‏@McMurphyESPN 8m

BCS computer Colley Matrix: 11-A&M 12-Bay 13-Mia 14-VT 15-UH 16-NIU 17-TT 18-UL 19-Aub 20-SCar 21-OU 22-Fresno 23-OreSt 24-MSU 25-Mich

Colley I do have figured into this projection

The thing I am kind of happy about is even after this incredible "idle" boost for Fresno, I think they are going to finish only 0.02 points ahead of us right now.

More LOL

Dan Wolken ‏@DanWolken 1h

Maryland, which lost a football game by 63 points last week, got three votes in the first Harris Poll

(10-13-2013 04:43 PM)HuskieJohn Wrote:  More LOL

Dan Wolken ‏@DanWolken 1h

Maryland, which lost a football game by 63 points last week, got three votes in the first Harris Poll

And here is my projected 26-40

Nebraska
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Oregon State
Houston
Notre Dame
Arizona State
Utah
Texas
Central Florida
Northwestern
Ball State
Boise State
Mississippi
Maryland

Made a very small mistake I think 19-21 shape up as

19. Fresno
20. Okla St
21. NIU

But all three teams real close! Stats updated above.

(10-04-2013 05:30 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 05:19 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 01:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

If Iowa beats OSU, that would be a nail in the coffin for Fresno, but that of course highly unlikely.

I visited the Fresno board, they think NIU has no chance. They legit think these things.

1. Rutgers and Boise are both SIGNIFICANTLY better than Iowa
2. They constantly mention NIU 'squeaked' by Iowa, even though the three pt victory is more than their total margin of victory over Boise and Rutgers
3. They forgot they played all these games at home
4. No mention of the fact they wont play a full schedule

Now I will admit, we are all homers to our teams. But I acknowledge they have the head start and NIU played poorly against two weaker teams, but NIU has gone on the road and taken care of business. Winning at home by 1 pt is not impressive, IMO. Especially when a team from the weakest AQ team travels like 3000 miles and goes for the W in OT.

They're better. Not massively, but they are. It's the Purdue win nobody's impressed with. Rutgers is going to end up with 9 wins, boise with 10.

(10-13-2013 05:16 PM)ROFLcopter Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 05:30 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 05:19 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-04-2013 01:47 PM)HuskieJWN Wrote:  1. Boise isn't better than Iowa this year. I am surprised they aren't but they just aren't. Iowa's D would rough up Southwick.
2. If NIU were to go undefeated at 13-0, that is much more difficult than going 11-0, possibly 12-0 if Fresno wins the conference title
3. NIU's 'signature' wins (Iowa, Purdue, Toledo, and Ball State, and MACC) 3 would be on the road and one neutral site. I added Toledo and Ball b/c they are MAC West contenders. Fresno's 'signature' wins (Rutgers, Boise, Wyoming, and MWCC) 3 would be at home, Fresno would host the MWCC.
4. The Idaho game will probably used as a measuring tool between the teams, which will hurt NIU

I don't see Fresno or NIU going undefeated (Fresno more so)
Those B1G wins, will look better than two 1 point wins on your home turf.

If Iowa beats OSU, that would be a nail in the coffin for Fresno, but that of course highly unlikely.

I visited the Fresno board, they think NIU has no chance. They legit think these things.

1. Rutgers and Boise are both SIGNIFICANTLY better than Iowa
2. They constantly mention NIU 'squeaked' by Iowa, even though the three pt victory is more than their total margin of victory over Boise and Rutgers
3. They forgot they played all these games at home
4. No mention of the fact they wont play a full schedule

Now I will admit, we are all homers to our teams. But I acknowledge they have the head start and NIU played poorly against two weaker teams, but NIU has gone on the road and taken care of business. Winning at home by 1 pt is not impressive, IMO. Especially when a team from the weakest AQ team travels like 3000 miles and goes for the W in OT.

They're better. Not massively, but they are. In any case, both will end up with way better rankings.

At this point I think its too close to call. Rutgers I definitely don't feel comfortable saying is better than Iowa, Boise State yes they could be. After crunching the numbers though I really thought Fresno would be further head than NIU but its less than 0.02 points in the BCS. A few big wins on national tv against BSU and Toledo, and that would be more than enough to close that gap hopefully. 0.02 BCS points is about the equivalent of 30 coaches poll vote difference.

Maybe I'm in the minority but I think Iowa will pull a big upset or two. Ruddock looks good to me and the MSU defense that just kept him in check might be the best in the B1G. Purdue probably isn't going to help us.