(12-22-2012 08:37 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  As for Creighton, of course we will probably take a step down when McDermott leaves, but if you include this year, we will have made the NCAA tournament 9 of 16 years (including 5 NIT's) so we've been good for a long time.

I don't have as much doubt in Creighton as I do with Saint Louis. Reasonably they could be the third team in place of VCU, as both teams have shown that their success is not necessarily tied to a coach (and both have invested in their programs).

I was just saying that a lot of the candidates have pretty big question marks. Maybe those will go away in a couple of years, but I don't think executives will jump to a conclusion and add a team if they don't have to. I think the most reasonable thing for the presidents and ADs to do is to get to 9-10 and take a wait and see approach.

(12-22-2012 10:43 AM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(12-22-2012 08:37 AM)Jet915 Wrote:  As for Creighton, of course we will probably take a step down when McDermott leaves, but if you include this year, we will have made the NCAA tournament 9 of 16 years (including 5 NIT's) so we've been good for a long time.

I don't have as much doubt in Creighton as I do with Saint Louis. Reasonably they could be the third team in place of VCU, as both teams have shown that their success is not necessarily tied to a coach (and both have invested in their programs).

I was just saying that a lot of the candidates have pretty big question marks. Maybe those will go away in a couple of years, but I don't think executives will jump to a conclusion and add a team if they don't have to. I think the most reasonable thing for the presidents and ADs to do is to get to 9-10 and take a wait and see approach.

Well Pete is saying it's certain that Xavier and Butler are in and near certain that Dayton and Creighton are in. He doesn't throw chit at the wall and see what sticks. He is very thorough and cares about his reputation. So I take it as those four are in unless something crazy and unexpected happens like the A-10 lands Duke or something. The real and only questions left are who is #5, St. Louis or VCU and when do we start play?

(12-22-2012 11:02 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  Well Pete is saying it's certain that Xavier and Butler are in and near certain that Dayton and Creighton are in. He doesn't throw chit at the wall and see what sticks. He is very thorough and cares about his reputation. So I take it as those four are in unless something crazy and unexpected happens like the A-10 lands Duke or something. The real and only questions left are who is #5, St. Louis or VCU and when do we start play?

If those are your options, VCU and next year.

I think that Xavier may object to Dayton and lower their odds from "near definite" to "very high," but I don't think the conference will wait or delay adding them. Ideally the divorce will happen quickly and the conference would be able to make its own identity as soon as possible.

VCU is a much better add for basketball reasons than Saint Louis. SLU may be good in the future, but it is far from definite, and they would almost certainly come in as the bottom team in the league. New teams should be held to a simple standard: Are they better than the league average? Saint Louis isn't, though they have the market, the investment, and past success.

One thing to remember this isnt just about BB. College Presidents take other things into account such as academics and overall olympic programs. Doesnt really make choices much easier since all the candidates have good reps.

Does anyone here actually think each school will get 3 million?

Seems awfully high to me.

(12-22-2012 11:54 AM)bmorex Wrote:  Does anyone here actually think each school will get 3 million?

Seems awfully high to me.

It does seem high, but as noted in some articles, NBC/Comcast and Fox are trying to loosen the death-grip that ESPN has on College athletics. There is money to be made for both parties but the C7+ need to hire one heck of a commissioner that knows how to sell the value of this product.

(12-22-2012 11:30 AM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(12-22-2012 11:02 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  Well Pete is saying it's certain that Xavier and Butler are in and near certain that Dayton and Creighton are in. He doesn't throw chit at the wall and see what sticks. He is very thorough and cares about his reputation. So I take it as those four are in unless something crazy and unexpected happens like the A-10 lands Duke or something. The real and only questions left are who is #5, St. Louis or VCU and when do we start play?

If those are your options, VCU and next year.

I think that Xavier may object to Dayton and lower their odds from "near definite" to "very high," but I don't think the conference will wait or delay adding them. Ideally the divorce will happen quickly and the conference would be able to make its own identity as soon as possible.

VCU is a much better add for basketball reasons than Saint Louis. SLU may be good in the future, but it is far from definite, and they would almost certainly come in as the bottom team in the league. New teams should be held to a simple standard: Are they better than the league average? Saint Louis isn't, though they have the market, the investment, and past success.

I don't think Xavier objects to Dayton.

(12-22-2012 12:03 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  I don't think Xavier objects to Dayton.

Why wouldn't they? They compete with Dayton for viewership in the Cincinnati/Dayton metro area, and for recruits. Their is no love lost between the programs and no real incentive for Xavier to want Dayton in the C7 with them.

First, I think it is great the Catholic 7 decided to jump ship and create their own basketball first league. Second, the first thing the Catholic 7 needs to decide is whether or not they want this league to be Catholic only or not. Personally, I think it'd be cool to have it only Catholic schools (I'm not Catholic). I think it'd be wise to form a league with similar interests, values, and goals, so the league can survive together for decades. That would mean no Butler. If they don't decide it has to be all Catholic schools, I'm sure they would want it all private schools. This would mean no VCU. VCU would not fit in well with this league. VCU is a large public school. The object isn't to get the best basketball schools at the current time, it's to build a foundation for a league for decades. Richmond would fit the mold in this league way more than a VCU. Besides, Richmond has a longer resume than VCU.

So, the next order of business is to decide if they want a 10 team league or a 12 team league. If they want only Catholic schools, go with 10 teams. If they want to add more than Catholic schools, go with 12.

With Catholics only, I'd add Xavier, St.Louis, and Detroit. Yes, Detroit. Detroit is Catholic and in a top market than hasn't been reached yet by the former Big East. Again, part of building a league involves more than just the current success of the basketball teams on the court. Building a new league invloved building markets, and it's the same reason why St.Louis would be a good fit.

If they want to invite non-Catholic schools as well, I'd add Xavier, Butler, St.Louis, Creighton, and Richmond.

Some would argue that the Big East name holds a lot of weight, but I think it might not be a bad idea to start from scratch. Get a new name. The only thing I think is a must to keep is their relationship with MSG. It's the best place for any tournament, it draws lots of attention, fans will always travel to New York, and it relates to what the Big East was originally founded on: small urban schools focused primarily on Basketball. I can't wait to hear when this new league is official!

(12-22-2012 01:21 PM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(12-22-2012 12:03 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  I don't think Xavier objects to Dayton.

Why wouldn't they? They compete with Dayton for viewership in the Cincinnati/Dayton metro area, and for recruits. Their is no love lost between the programs and no real incentive for Xavier to want Dayton in the C7 with them.

Because I think they are happy to be part of the party right now. I don't think they try and keep anyone out. If Dayton is who the TV folks wants then thats who we add. Even if Xavier objects, I think what the TV folks want is more important and thats who gets added.

(12-22-2012 01:26 PM)BigBCherney Wrote:  First, I think it is great the Catholic 7 decided to jump ship and create their own basketball first league. Second, the first thing the Catholic 7 needs to decide is whether or not they want this league to be Catholic only or not. Personally, I think it'd be cool to have it only Catholic schools (I'm not Catholic). I think it'd be wise to form a league with similar interests, values, and goals, so the league can survive together for decades. That would mean no Butler. If they don't decide it has to be all Catholic schools, I'm sure they would want it all private schools. This would mean no VCU. VCU would not fit in well with this league. VCU is a large public school. The object isn't to get the best basketball schools at the current time, it's to build a foundation for a league for decades. Richmond would fit the mold in this league way more than a VCU. Besides, Richmond has a longer resume than VCU.

So, the next order of business is to decide if they want a 10 team league or a 12 team league. If they want only Catholic schools, go with 10 teams. If they want to add more than Catholic schools, go with 12.

With Catholics only, I'd add Xavier, St.Louis, and Detroit. Yes, Detroit. Detroit is Catholic and in a top market than hasn't been reached yet by the former Big East. Again, part of building a league involves more than just the current success of the basketball teams on the court. Building a new league invloved building markets, and it's the same reason why St.Louis would be a good fit.

If they want to invite non-Catholic schools as well, I'd add Xavier, Butler, St.Louis, Creighton, and Richmond.

Some would argue that the Big East name holds a lot of weight, but I think it might not be a bad idea to start from scratch. Get a new name. The only thing I think is a must to keep is their relationship with MSG. It's the best place for any tournament, it draws lots of attention, fans will always travel to New York, and it relates to what the Big East was originally founded on: small urban schools focused primarily on Basketball. I can't wait to hear when this new league is official!

Glad to have you on board!

Pete Thamel from Sports Illustrated and who has been more right than wrong in realignment reported that Xavier and Butler were definite and that Creighton and Dayton were near definite. Also that we'd go to 12 teams. The last spot would be between VCU and St. Louis. I know VCU is a large public school but they don't plat FB and their large number means more fans.

(12-22-2012 11:54 AM)bmorex Wrote:  Does anyone here actually think each school will get 3 million?

Seems awfully high to me.

If it's Fox Sports and their new channel, hopefully it will show up on my cable lineup...

(12-22-2012 01:35 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(12-22-2012 01:21 PM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(12-22-2012 12:03 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  I don't think Xavier objects to Dayton.

Why wouldn't they? They compete with Dayton for viewership in the Cincinnati/Dayton metro area, and for recruits. Their is no love lost between the programs and no real incentive for Xavier to want Dayton in the C7 with them.

Because I think they are happy to be part of the party right now. I don't think they try and keep anyone out. If Dayton is who the TV folks wants then thats who we add. Even if Xavier objects, I think what the TV folks want is more important and thats who gets added.

I think the UD/X rivalry would be one of the better rivalries in the Big East. The two have met 158 times in their history (no clue how that stacks up with other Big East rivalries). I think that would be a nice draw for any television partner.

Also, the two don't "share" the media markets. Hardly anyone in Dayton roots for Xavier and I doubt many in Cincy root for UD. They don't even air Xavier games locally in Dayton unless it's on a national network like ESPN or CBS Sports. Dayton is a separate metro area from Cincinnati and has about 1.1M residents. (That's 43rd largest in the nation and for reference, larger than Omaha's 900K, good for 59th in the nation.) Cincy has about 2.1M. X directly splits their market with UC and indirectly with UK and OSU. Dayton splits their market indirectly with OSU and only them.

Local recruiting advantages aren't of major concern I'd imagine since their rosters consist mostly of players outside the Cincy-Dayton area (SW Ohio). UD has 2 scholarship players from Dayton or Cincy. I believe Xavier has 2 players on scholarship from the region (both Cincy). They both recruit heavily throughout the midwest (Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit) and northeast (greater NYC).

Do I think X would advocate for UD? Nope. Do I think they'd oppose UD? Nope.

=====================

Honestly, I think the Big East should just go to 14. Add Butler, Creighton, Dayton, Duquesne, Saint Louis, Virginia Commonwealth and Xavier.

You're probably thinking, "What?! Duquesne?! What the F is wrong with you?! Ignore this fool!" but are you really going to add possibly 5 good programs to help beat each other up without adding a relative punching bag? They're also a geographic bridge between the east and west. They're in a solid market (Pittsburgh), so even if they aren't competing for NCAA bids, at least they might draw respectable tv numbers against programs like Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Xavier, Butler and the like.

Have two divisions and a 19-game schedule (12 divisional, 7 crossover). I'm sure Marquette and DePaul won't like not being able to double up on Georgetown or other eastern schools anymore but if the tv money is $3M that should help, no? And replacing them with Xavier or Butler isn't half bad.

I don't see why Richmond should be considered if VCU is available. If VCU later adds football and leaves, Richmond will still be there.

Any Gonzaga and/or St. Mary's talk is a waste of time. Those schools could conceivably use up $500K of the tv revenue on increased travel expenses if they joined as basketball-onlies and up to $1.5M if it was for all sports. I base that off of reports that FSU might have seen up to a 40% (or $1.75M) increase in travel by leaving the ACC for Big 12. Football makes up a big chunk of that, but Spokane to Providence is a lot further than Tallahassee to Lawrence and should be considered, too.

West
Butler
Creighton
Dayton
DePaul
Marquette
Saint Louis
Xavier

East
Duquesne
Georgetown
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
Villanova
Virginia Commonwealth

But if you want to dump Duquesne then just take out another school, too.

(12-22-2012 08:39 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  

(12-22-2012 01:35 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(12-22-2012 01:21 PM)College Basketball Fan Wrote:  

(12-22-2012 12:03 PM)NJRedMan Wrote:  I don't think Xavier objects to Dayton.

Why wouldn't they? They compete with Dayton for viewership in the Cincinnati/Dayton metro area, and for recruits. Their is no love lost between the programs and no real incentive for Xavier to want Dayton in the C7 with them.

Because I think they are happy to be part of the party right now. I don't think they try and keep anyone out. If Dayton is who the TV folks wants then thats who we add. Even if Xavier objects, I think what the TV folks want is more important and thats who gets added.

I think the UD/X rivalry would be one of the better rivalries in the Big East. The two have met 158 times in their history (no clue how that stacks up with other Big East rivalries). I think that would be a nice draw for any television partner.

Also, the two don't "share" the media markets. Hardly anyone in Dayton roots for Xavier and I doubt many in Cincy root for UD. They don't even air Xavier games locally in Dayton unless it's on a national network like ESPN or CBS Sports. Dayton is a separate metro area from Cincinnati and has about 1.1M residents. (That's 43rd largest in the nation and for reference, larger than Omaha's 900K, good for 59th in the nation.) Cincy has about 2.1M. X directly splits their market with UC and indirectly with UK and OSU. Dayton splits their market indirectly with OSU and only them.

Local recruiting advantages aren't of major concern I'd imagine since their rosters consist mostly of players outside the Cincy-Dayton area (SW Ohio). UD has 2 scholarship players from Dayton or Cincy. I believe Xavier has 2 players on scholarship from the region (both Cincy). They both recruit heavily throughout the midwest (Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit) and northeast (greater NYC).

Do I think X would advocate for UD? Nope. Do I think they'd oppose UD? Nope.

=====================

Honestly, I think the Big East should just go to 14. Add Butler, Creighton, Dayton, Duquesne, Saint Louis, Virginia Commonwealth and Xavier.

You're probably thinking, "What?! Duquesne?! What the F is wrong with you?! Ignore this fool!" but are you really going to add possibly 5 good programs to help beat each other up without adding a relative punching bag? They're also a geographic bridge between the east and west. They're in a solid market (Pittsburgh), so even if they aren't competing for NCAA bids, at least they might draw respectable tv numbers against programs like Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova, Xavier, Butler and the like.

Have two divisions and a 19-game schedule (12 divisional, 7 crossover). I'm sure Marquette and DePaul won't like not being able to double up on Georgetown or other eastern schools anymore but if the tv money is $3M that should help, no? And replacing them with Xavier or Butler isn't half bad.

I don't see why Richmond should be considered if VCU is available. If VCU later adds football and leaves, Richmond will still be there.

Any Gonzaga and/or St. Mary's talk is a waste of time. Those schools could conceivably use up $500K of the tv revenue on increased travel expenses if they joined as basketball-onlies and up to $1.5M if it was for all sports. I base that off of reports that FSU might have seen up to a 40% (or $1.75M) increase in travel by leaving the ACC for Big 12. Football makes up a big chunk of that, but Spokane to Providence is a lot further than Tallahassee to Lawrence and should be considered, too.

West
Butler
Creighton
Dayton
DePaul
Marquette
Saint Louis
Xavier

East
Duquesne
Georgetown
Providence
Seton Hall
St. John's
Villanova
Virginia Commonwealth

But if you want to dump Duquesne then just take out another school, too.

if going to 14 i would trade Duquesne for Detroit. just my 2 cents

Hey gosports1. If you don't mind me asking; what team do you root for?

(12-22-2012 11:40 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  Hey gosports1. If you don't mind me asking; what team do you root for?

Hmmm i thought i left so many clues over the years! i guess not
Providence, although i have ties to a few BE schools

(12-22-2012 10:12 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  if going to 14 i would trade Duquesne for Detroit. just my 2 cents

I guess it wouldn't make much difference in terms of basketball quality.

Just out of curiosity... What dollar value would you place on the non-game exposure that comes from having ESPN as your partner versus Fox/NBC/CBS?

What I mean by this, is that ESPN's reputation is to dedicate virtually all of their SportsCenter coverage to events they have the TV rights to. (Just look at hockey). Or look at the A-10's exposure vs Big East exposure over the last 20 years. The A-10 was cruising along with 4 or 5 bids for a good stretch. Never less than three when ESPN was heavily invested in the A-10. That changed. They dumped extended coverage of the A-10 tournament down to just the tourney final after 2000.

And the dominance of the Big East grew immensely. The Big East was better than the A-10, but when SportsCenter began to pretend the A-10 didn't exist, the distance between the two conferences BECAME massive. It was a self-fulfilling prophesy because all the recruits saw the Big East on ESPN, promos and highlights on SportsCenter and the A-10 was hardly mentioned. (For example Temple vs Duke this season was billed as "ACC Hoops on ESPN").

If the C7 takes $3 million from FOX, the amount of coverage the conference gets from ESPN on SportsCenter is going to plummet. SC will show highlights from and talk about the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12 (maybe the BEFB basketball teams) and that's about it.

That's a big problem, because while most sports fans realize ESPN is nefarious for this, and people will watch our GAMES on other networks, probably 99+ percent of sports fans watch SportsCenter on ESPN for their news, and NOT the daily news shows on NBC Sports or CBS Sports. Heck, I'm a sports junkie and I can't even tell you the NAMES of those daily sports news shows on NBC/CBS Sports Networks.

Would it be worth it to take less money from ESPN for the publicity that comes from SportsCenter? Or take the top bid from someone else and pocket the cash?

(12-23-2012 01:33 AM)JPSchmack Wrote:  Just out of curiosity... What dollar value would you place on the non-game exposure that comes from having ESPN as your partner versus Fox/NBC/CBS?

I'd say it matters. It's worth 25-33%.

Quote:Would it be worth it to take less money from ESPN for the publicity that comes from SportsCenter? Or take the top bid from someone else and pocket the cash?

Not just for the ESPiN machine publicity--as your example showed, ESPN had the A-10 rights and still ignored them. The reason I'd take $2M per from ESPN over $3M from Fox Sports is exposure in good timeslots. If ESPN is willing to commit to details about good timeslots--Big Monday, Saturday afternoons and nights, etc--that's worth the ESPN discount.

During the NBA lockout, ESPN bumped up Temple vs Ohio MACtion! from ESPN-U to ESPN-1. 1,000,000 people watched Temple vs Ohio. THAT'S why I give ESPN a 25-33% discount, provided we have guarantees against being treated like MAC football.

Xavier and Dayton fanbases definitely don't like each other, although I suspect this is more of an internet rivalry than you'd see in real life. There's a lot more bad blood between Xavier and UC fans, although I'm not going to reopen that can of worms (last Wednesday notwithstanding).

I'm not in the know as far as the Xavier and UD administrations, although I have a feeling that there is more camaraderie between the two. It's not like the early 90s when UD bolted out of the MCC and went to the Great Midwest (along with DePaul, Marquette, SLU and UC) while Xavier stayed in the MCC. Dayton had some real horrible teams at that time, although that was the handiwork of Jim O'Brien. And still Dayton drew solid crowds at that time; I have every reason to think they'll bring near capacity crowds should they be part of the new conference, be it as a charter member or as a future member down the road.

I was a little surprised when I heard that Xavier games were blacked out in Dayton; X has most of their games televised on Fox Sports Ohio throughout Ohio and parts of Kentucky/Indiana. Normally blackouts take place if Dayton or the Cavs or Blue Jackets (except this season) are on FSN-Ohio.