(12-13-2012 02:38 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  Again, you're talking about trying to convince other teams to join you in a league that technically doesn't exist, has no TV deal, no bowl agreements, and no NCAA waiver in hand... and a league where several additional members (Cinci and UConn) are willing to leave at the drop of a hat.

Face it. CUSA right now offers a whole lot more in stability. You can claim that some programs in the group of what will remain after dissolution have an appeal or marketability, and to some degree that may be true.

But that will be a big leap for any school (whether it be USM, Marshall, UAB, or whoever) to make in trying to commit to such an uncertain future in a league that basically does not exist in the eyes of college athletics.

Calm down, who knows how this is going to work out, but it's a little early to state that the bowls, NCAA waiver, and tv deal is gone.

From Pete Thamel:

"The potential for the schools to dissolve the league is dwindling, as it's far more likely that the seven will just break away."

"A source said that the NCAA, because of the volatility in the landscape, would strongly consider granting the hodgepodge leftover Big East schools a waiver for an automatic bid. (And there would be decent basketball with UConn, Cincinnati and Memphis)."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college...&eref=sihp

And does C-USA really offer more stability? Let's face it, the BE instability has been caused by the PAC, B1G, and ACC picking it apart. If the remaining BE schools went back to C-USA then who do you think would get picked apart the next time one of those conferences expanded? C-USA.

(12-13-2012 03:18 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  

(12-13-2012 02:38 PM)Blazer85 Wrote:  Again, you're talking about trying to convince other teams to join you in a league that technically doesn't exist, has no TV deal, no bowl agreements, and no NCAA waiver in hand... and a league where several additional members (Cinci and UConn) are willing to leave at the drop of a hat.

Face it. CUSA right now offers a whole lot more in stability. You can claim that some programs in the group of what will remain after dissolution have an appeal or marketability, and to some degree that may be true.

But that will be a big leap for any school (whether it be USM, Marshall, UAB, or whoever) to make in trying to commit to such an uncertain future in a league that basically does not exist in the eyes of college athletics.

Calm down, who knows how this is going to work out, but it's a little early to state that the bowls, NCAA waiver, and tv deal is gone.

From Pete Thamel:

"The potential for the schools to dissolve the league is dwindling, as it's far more likely that the seven will just break away."

"A source said that the NCAA, because of the volatility in the landscape, would strongly consider granting the hodgepodge leftover Big East schools a waiver for an automatic bid. (And there would be decent basketball with UConn, Cincinnati and Memphis)."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college...&eref=sihp

And does C-USA really offer more stability? Let's face it, the BE instability has been caused by the PAC, B1G, and ACC picking it apart. If the remaining BE schools went back to C-USA then who do you think would get picked apart the next time one of those conferences expanded? C-USA.

First of all, sources saying they would get an NCAA waiver is not going to be much comfort to university presidents that would put their schools in jeopardy without a waiver and TV deal in hand, for example.

Second of all, I never said CUSA was stable or safe, but compared to the BE which is likely to soon be no more, CUSA is definitely a more stable option.

Those that think the Catholic schools are likely to just leave rather than dissolve are probably just trying to convince themselves of that. Why on earth would they do that? The Catholics want to keep the NCAA credits and the auto bid. Why would they voluntarily leave and not dissolve?

My scenario:

Navy goes back Indy. Boise State and SDSU go back to the MWC. MWC also invites Tulsa, UTEP, Houston, SMU to go to 16.

The Big East has 8 remaining: ECU, USF, UCF, Memphis, Temple, Tulane, Cincy, UConn

First four in (CUSA brethren): USM, Marshall, UAB, Rice

That puts them at 12 where they could stop, but they want 14 or maybe even 16

Remaining CUSA schools: La Tech, UTSA, UNT, ODU, Charlotte, MT, FIU, FAU

FIU/FAU stand no chance unless UCF and USF are gone, which isn't likely unless ACC gets hit multiple times. For now, let's assume that doesn't happen.

My guess is that the conference will want a Texas presence and the media markets, so UTSA and UNT are in. That would be 14. MT, La Tech, ODU, and Charlotte would duke it out for 2 more spots if they went to 16 or if they backfilled with UConn and Cincy leaving. If both of those schools were gone to the ACC and the conference wants 16, then all four would be in.

If UConn and Cincy leave, and the conference goes to 16, FIU/FAU are stuck on the outside looking in. CUSA calls up nearly the entire Sun Belt or FIU/FAU go back to the Belt.

Possible divisions if that 16 team alignment happened:

East...........West
MT.............Memphis
UCF............Rice
USF............UAB
ECU............Tulane
ODU............USM
Charlotte.....UTSA
Marshall.......La Tech
Temple........North Texas