(10-24-2012 01:12 PM)Max Power Wrote:  Intrade is a fair predictor so long as people with an agenda aren't trying to game it to make their candidate look better, like the McCain supporter in 2008 and the Romney supporter who dumped 20 grand yesterday. Maybe Obama supporters were doing this very slowly and in small amounts prior to the Romney involvement, but I doubt it.

If there is money involved there is always an agenda.

Right, but if it's just compulsive gamblers involved that agenda is to make money, and the line is worth considering.