I was inspired by the Chris Bevilacqua interview. He mentioned how all sports properties have risen over time. So it got me thinking, who else has done well and could we create a comp model to estimate the BE value.
My Comp is MLS for the time being.

They just signed a deal for 45 games per year for $10M

45 Games for $10.M = $222,222 per game but that is scratching the surface.

http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/10...w-tv-deal/

The median ratings for the games are .1 (this is up 67% from last year) which means that over the 45 games they deliver 4.5 Nielsen points. At $10.0M a year that works out to $2.222M per point.

http://www.tvmediainsights.com/2012/07/m...s-in-2012/

I cannot find BE specific numbers, but my assumption is that the BE will not be lower than the average ESPN2 game for 3/4 of the telecasts and not lower than ESPN for 1/4 of the remainder. Figure 3/4 of the games are ESPN type value and the other 1/4 being ESPN 2 type value.

(if anyone has the BE ratings from last year, let me know)

For the past season, here were the ratings:

ESPN 2 0.7
ESPN 1.8

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/I...tings.aspx

using my 3/4 to 1/4 weighting, you get an 0.975 rating for the BE.

Let's now extrapolate out the comp.

If NBC is able to broadcast 4 games per week for 13 weeks, that is 52 games. The total Nielen points would be 52*.975 = 50.7 points. The points for the MLS were worth $2.222M, so the Big East for football only for 52 games comps to $112.66M for just 52 of the 112 games (14 teams) for the BE. (There is more inventory to sell)

That is $8.0M per team for football using the MLS as a comp for 14 teams just for the NBC piece. Consider that there was no adjustment to the comp since the MLS is not as commercial friendly as college football and that the core audience for NCAA football is the Men 18-49 category.

I am going to put a 25% kicker in for the commercial and 18-49 comp adjustment. ( I could it another 67% since the MLS negotiated at the time with ratings 67% lower than what is used in this model).

Meaning that for Tier 1, Football should be $10.0M.

Have to figure that Tier 2 will generate smaller dollars, but if the ratings are say 0.2 for another 36 games, then tier 2 should be worth another $20M per year (36 x 0.2 x $2.222 x 1.25).

So I will go out on a limb and say that football will get $11.4M per year for tier 1 and 2 rights. (I would adjust if anyone has the actual BE ratings for the whole season).

Why didn't we just hire you, or maybe we did?

It seems like a decent enough point, would be interesting to cross-check it with the SEC and ACC (the Pac ratings didn't warrant their contract, so that might not be a fair (or it might be the fair) comparison).

In short: we're going to get some pretty decent dough.

Let's Comp the NHL

Their contract is 10 years $2.0B or $200M per year.

NBC had 12 regular season games with a 1.0 average rating
NBCSN had 90 regular season games with a .2 average rating

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily...Media.aspx

The Playoffs are harder to peg.

But the Finals have averaged about 6 games at 2.5 average rating.
The whole play off tv ratings averaged 1M homes or about, so backing out the finals the other games did a .5.

http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2012/6/13/30...bers-since

So let's comp this up.

90 x .2 +12 x 1+ 6 x 2.5 + 60 * .5 = 75 Nielsen points.

$200M/75 = $2.667M per point.

Let's use that number for the BE 50.7 nielsen points for tier 1 = $138.7M or $9.7M per team in a 14 person BE.

Peaking into the MLS and the NHL contracts, the $10.0M for football for the NBC offer seems to hunt.

I said 8.5 football, 4.5 basketball months ago. We'll see what happens.

Also remember that football games have more value because they are longer then soccer games. A soccer game is generally 2 hours, with limited commercials. A football game pushes 4 hours with many commercial opportunities.

Football - $11.5 million

Basketball - $4.5 million

16 mill football, 5 mil basketball. 21 mil all sports. :0)

I'm still saying about $7.5 mill for football rights per school and $3.5 mill for basketball rights per school. A total of $11 mill a year per all sports school. Could be more I'd say up to $15 mill per all sports school and as low as $9 mill per all sports school. In the 15 mill scenario figure about $9.5 to 10.5 mill for football and $4.5 to 5.5 mill for basketball. In the $9 mill scenario figure about $6.5 mill for football and about $2.5 mill for basketball.

Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2

(08-14-2012 07:11 AM)brista21 Wrote:  I'm still saying about $7.5 mill for football rights per school and $3.5 mill for basketball rights per school. A total of $11 mill a year per all sports school.

This is what I'm guessing as well. Somewhere between $10.5 to $11 million for all sports schools and around $3-3.5 million for hoops only.

One of our local radio talk show guys (who is also our play-by-play guy) tweeted in a converstation with a TV exec source of his that Bevilacqua would not have taken on the job unless he knew the dollar figures were going to be high.

Take that FWIW.

$13m football / $4m basketball = $17m all sports

As I've stated all along...the VALUE (to the networks and advertisers) for LIVE EVENTS (in this case, LIVE SPORTING EVENTS) will only continue to rise...as more and more folks are watching millions of hours of DVR'd shows and FF through commercials....let alone new devices like the Dish's The Hopper which AUTOMATICALLY skips commercials, the Big East is sitting in a very good position by being the last of the major conf to have their contract go out for bid on the open market (after ESPN's 60 day window) by providing a network & advertisers VALUABLE live events to show.

Since the value of these LIVE events will only soar higher in the future, I hope the Big East doesn't sign a 15 yr deal like the ACC did...because that contract will be so far under valued to the conf (i.e. ACC teams don't even get $17 Million per year till 2021).

Plus, if the Big East is able to put there now established conf out for bid again in say 2019 or 2020...the sky would be the limit on that "next" deal.

Big $$$$ are going to be in the SECOND DEAL (i.e. of a very established conf) so the conf would benefit greatly from say just a 6-10 year deal now...but the networks (maybe NBC) will be the one's pushing for a MAX long-term deal...and NBC just might offer enough CA$H to get the Big East to commit LONG-TERM to NBC and NBC Sports....especially if NBC offers up the promotion/PR that the conf is looking for in ADDITION to $$$$$ because its highly unlikely that ESPN can offer up the same pub/positive PR.

FB: NBC Tier 1, ESPN Tier 2, BE Network on NBC Sports Tier 3 - $14M/year/school
BB: ESPN Tier 1, NBCSports Tier 2, BE Network on NBC Sports Tier 3- $4M/year/school

Total value: $268M/year

Everything I've seen lately leads me to believe $10M will be the floor for football, and my personal opinion, because of basketball, other sports shouldn't get anything less than $3.5M. Mind you, that was before the BE hired top notch conference agents to negotiate the TV deal, things might end up being even better than expected...

(08-14-2012 07:26 AM)Knightshift Wrote:  One of our local radio talk show guys (who is also our play-by-play guy) tweeted in a converstation with a TV exec source of his that Bevilacqua would not have taken on the job unless he knew the dollar figures were going to be high.

Take that FWIW.

That's a pretty good point. These high profile negotiators stake their reputation every time they take on a client. They arent doing any charity work

(08-13-2012 11:20 PM)FULL_MONTY Wrote:  I was inspired by the Chris Bevilacqua interview. He mentioned how all sports properties have risen over time. So it got me thinking, who else has done well and could we create a comp model to estimate the BE value.
My Comp is MLS for the time being.

They just signed a deal for 45 games per year for $10M

45 Games for $10.M = $222,222 per game but that is scratching the surface.

http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/10...w-tv-deal/

The median ratings for the games are .1 (this is up 67% from last year) which means that over the 45 games they deliver 4.5 Nielsen points. At $10.0M a year that works out to $2.222M per point.

http://www.tvmediainsights.com/2012/07/m...s-in-2012/

I cannot find BE specific numbers, but my assumption is that the BE will not be lower than the average ESPN2 game for 3/4 of the telecasts and not lower than ESPN for 1/4 of the remainder. Figure 3/4 of the games are ESPN type value and the other 1/4 being ESPN 2 type value.

(if anyone has the BE ratings from last year, let me know)

For the past season, here were the ratings:

ESPN 2 0.7
ESPN 1.8

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/I...tings.aspx

using my 3/4 to 1/4 weighting, you get an 0.975 rating for the BE.

Let's now extrapolate out the comp.

If NBC is able to broadcast 4 games per week for 13 weeks, that is 52 games. The total Nielen points would be 52*.975 = 50.7 points. The points for the MLS were worth $2.222M, so the Big East for football only for 52 games comps to $112.66M for just 52 of the 112 games (14 teams) for the BE. (There is more inventory to sell)

That is $8.0M per team for football using the MLS as a comp for 14 teams just for the NBC piece. Consider that there was no adjustment to the comp since the MLS is not as commercial friendly as college football and that the core audience for NCAA football is the Men 18-49 category.

I am going to put a 25% kicker in for the commercial and 18-49 comp adjustment. ( I could it another 67% since the MLS negotiated at the time with ratings 67% lower than what is used in this model).

Meaning that for Tier 1, Football should be $10.0M.

Have to figure that Tier 2 will generate smaller dollars, but if the ratings are say 0.2 for another 36 games, then tier 2 should be worth another $20M per year (36 x 0.2 x $2.222 x 1.25).

So I will go out on a limb and say that football will get $11.4M per year for tier 1 and 2 rights. (I would adjust if anyone has the actual BE ratings for the whole season).

I like your method. My only argument is with the assumption that Big East football games on NBC-SN will get anything close to ESPN or ESPN2 ratings.

(08-14-2012 09:21 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-13-2012 11:20 PM)FULL_MONTY Wrote:  I was inspired by the Chris Bevilacqua interview. He mentioned how all sports properties have risen over time. So it got me thinking, who else has done well and could we create a comp model to estimate the BE value.
My Comp is MLS for the time being.

They just signed a deal for 45 games per year for $10M

45 Games for $10.M = $222,222 per game but that is scratching the surface.

http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/10...w-tv-deal/

The median ratings for the games are .1 (this is up 67% from last year) which means that over the 45 games they deliver 4.5 Nielsen points. At $10.0M a year that works out to $2.222M per point.

http://www.tvmediainsights.com/2012/07/m...s-in-2012/

I cannot find BE specific numbers, but my assumption is that the BE will not be lower than the average ESPN2 game for 3/4 of the telecasts and not lower than ESPN for 1/4 of the remainder. Figure 3/4 of the games are ESPN type value and the other 1/4 being ESPN 2 type value.

(if anyone has the BE ratings from last year, let me know)

For the past season, here were the ratings:

ESPN 2 0.7
ESPN 1.8

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/I...tings.aspx

using my 3/4 to 1/4 weighting, you get an 0.975 rating for the BE.

Let's now extrapolate out the comp.

If NBC is able to broadcast 4 games per week for 13 weeks, that is 52 games. The total Nielen points would be 52*.975 = 50.7 points. The points for the MLS were worth $2.222M, so the Big East for football only for 52 games comps to $112.66M for just 52 of the 112 games (14 teams) for the BE. (There is more inventory to sell)

That is $8.0M per team for football using the MLS as a comp for 14 teams just for the NBC piece. Consider that there was no adjustment to the comp since the MLS is not as commercial friendly as college football and that the core audience for NCAA football is the Men 18-49 category.

I am going to put a 25% kicker in for the commercial and 18-49 comp adjustment. ( I could it another 67% since the MLS negotiated at the time with ratings 67% lower than what is used in this model).

Meaning that for Tier 1, Football should be $10.0M.

Have to figure that Tier 2 will generate smaller dollars, but if the ratings are say 0.2 for another 36 games, then tier 2 should be worth another $20M per year (36 x 0.2 x $2.222 x 1.25).

So I will go out on a limb and say that football will get $11.4M per year for tier 1 and 2 rights. (I would adjust if anyone has the actual BE ratings for the whole season).

I like your method. My only argument is with the assumption that Big East football games on NBC-SN will get anything close to ESPN or ESPN2 ratings.

Yep and NBC-SN isn't on the lower tier Dish packages like CBS sports is.

(08-14-2012 09:25 AM)BroncoPaul Wrote:  

(08-14-2012 09:21 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-13-2012 11:20 PM)FULL_MONTY Wrote:  I was inspired by the Chris Bevilacqua interview. He mentioned how all sports properties have risen over time. So it got me thinking, who else has done well and could we create a comp model to estimate the BE value.
My Comp is MLS for the time being.

They just signed a deal for 45 games per year for $10M

45 Games for $10.M = $222,222 per game but that is scratching the surface.

http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/10...w-tv-deal/

The median ratings for the games are .1 (this is up 67% from last year) which means that over the 45 games they deliver 4.5 Nielsen points. At $10.0M a year that works out to $2.222M per point.

http://www.tvmediainsights.com/2012/07/m...s-in-2012/

I cannot find BE specific numbers, but my assumption is that the BE will not be lower than the average ESPN2 game for 3/4 of the telecasts and not lower than ESPN for 1/4 of the remainder. Figure 3/4 of the games are ESPN type value and the other 1/4 being ESPN 2 type value.

(if anyone has the BE ratings from last year, let me know)

For the past season, here were the ratings:

ESPN 2 0.7
ESPN 1.8

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/I...tings.aspx

using my 3/4 to 1/4 weighting, you get an 0.975 rating for the BE.

Let's now extrapolate out the comp.

If NBC is able to broadcast 4 games per week for 13 weeks, that is 52 games. The total Nielen points would be 52*.975 = 50.7 points. The points for the MLS were worth $2.222M, so the Big East for football only for 52 games comps to $112.66M for just 52 of the 112 games (14 teams) for the BE. (There is more inventory to sell)

That is $8.0M per team for football using the MLS as a comp for 14 teams just for the NBC piece. Consider that there was no adjustment to the comp since the MLS is not as commercial friendly as college football and that the core audience for NCAA football is the Men 18-49 category.

I am going to put a 25% kicker in for the commercial and 18-49 comp adjustment. ( I could it another 67% since the MLS negotiated at the time with ratings 67% lower than what is used in this model).

Meaning that for Tier 1, Football should be $10.0M.

Have to figure that Tier 2 will generate smaller dollars, but if the ratings are say 0.2 for another 36 games, then tier 2 should be worth another $20M per year (36 x 0.2 x $2.222 x 1.25).

So I will go out on a limb and say that football will get $11.4M per year for tier 1 and 2 rights. (I would adjust if anyone has the actual BE ratings for the whole season).

I like your method. My only argument is with the assumption that Big East football games on NBC-SN will get anything close to ESPN or ESPN2 ratings.

Yep and NBC-SN isn't on the lower tier Dish packages like CBS sports is.

Though NBC-SN is in a bunch more homes than CBS Sports. I know I have been using time warner, the normal digital package. We have NBC-SN but do not have CBS Sports.

(08-14-2012 09:21 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(08-13-2012 11:20 PM)FULL_MONTY Wrote:  I was inspired by the Chris Bevilacqua interview. He mentioned how all sports properties have risen over time. So it got me thinking, who else has done well and could we create a comp model to estimate the BE value.
My Comp is MLS for the time being.

They just signed a deal for 45 games per year for $10M

45 Games for $10.M = $222,222 per game but that is scratching the surface.

http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/10...w-tv-deal/

The median ratings for the games are .1 (this is up 67% from last year) which means that over the 45 games they deliver 4.5 Nielsen points. At $10.0M a year that works out to $2.222M per point.

http://www.tvmediainsights.com/2012/07/m...s-in-2012/

I cannot find BE specific numbers, but my assumption is that the BE will not be lower than the average ESPN2 game for 3/4 of the telecasts and not lower than ESPN for 1/4 of the remainder. Figure 3/4 of the games are ESPN type value and the other 1/4 being ESPN 2 type value.

(if anyone has the BE ratings from last year, let me know)

For the past season, here were the ratings:

ESPN 2 0.7
ESPN 1.8

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/I...tings.aspx

using my 3/4 to 1/4 weighting, you get an 0.975 rating for the BE.

Let's now extrapolate out the comp.

If NBC is able to broadcast 4 games per week for 13 weeks, that is 52 games. The total Nielen points would be 52*.975 = 50.7 points. The points for the MLS were worth $2.222M, so the Big East for football only for 52 games comps to $112.66M for just 52 of the 112 games (14 teams) for the BE. (There is more inventory to sell)

That is $8.0M per team for football using the MLS as a comp for 14 teams just for the NBC piece. Consider that there was no adjustment to the comp since the MLS is not as commercial friendly as college football and that the core audience for NCAA football is the Men 18-49 category.

I am going to put a 25% kicker in for the commercial and 18-49 comp adjustment. ( I could it another 67% since the MLS negotiated at the time with ratings 67% lower than what is used in this model).

Meaning that for Tier 1, Football should be $10.0M.

Have to figure that Tier 2 will generate smaller dollars, but if the ratings are say 0.2 for another 36 games, then tier 2 should be worth another $20M per year (36 x 0.2 x $2.222 x 1.25).

So I will go out on a limb and say that football will get $11.4M per year for tier 1 and 2 rights. (I would adjust if anyone has the actual BE ratings for the whole season).

I like your method. My only argument is with the assumption that Big East football games on NBC-SN will get anything close to ESPN or ESPN2 ratings.

The NHL and MSL have garnered better ratings on the NBC platforms than what they yielded on ESPN (Sans the NHL finals because of LA being in the mix) or FOX.

(08-14-2012 09:27 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(08-14-2012 09:25 AM)BroncoPaul Wrote:  Yep and NBC-SN isn't on the lower tier Dish packages like CBS sports is.

Though NBC-SN is in a bunch more homes than CBS Sports. I know I have been using time warner, the normal digital package. We have NBC-SN but do not have CBS Sports.

NBC Sports is in almost twice as many homes as CBS Sports...and that didn't count the nice bump they received just prior to the start of the Olympics. (some will cancel now that its over...but others won't).

The more valuable sports programming that NBC can offer up on NBC AND NBC Sports...will only help them grow even more in the future.

(08-14-2012 09:37 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(08-14-2012 09:27 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(08-14-2012 09:25 AM)BroncoPaul Wrote:  Yep and NBC-SN isn't on the lower tier Dish packages like CBS sports is.

Though NBC-SN is in a bunch more homes than CBS Sports. I know I have been using time warner, the normal digital package. We have NBC-SN but do not have CBS Sports.

NBC Sports is in almost twice as many homes as CBS Sports...and that didn't count the nice bump they received just prior to the start of the Olympics. (some will cancel now that its over...but others won't).

The more valuable sports programming that NBC can offer up on NBC AND NBC Sports...will only help them grow even more in the future.

Also add that NBC is now on par (if not exceeding) ESPN in experience streaming content via the internet (because of the Olympics). NBC is in a much better place to battle ESPN in the future than CBS ever was.