I was inspired by the Chris Bevilacqua interview. He mentioned how all sports properties have risen over time. So it got me thinking, who else has done well and could we create a comp model to estimate the BE value.
My Comp is MLS for the time being.
They just signed a deal for 45 games per year for $10M
45 Games for $10.M = $222,222 per game but that is scratching the surface.
http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/10...w-tv-deal/
The median ratings for the games are .1 (this is up 67% from last year) which means that over the 45 games they deliver 4.5 Nielsen points. At $10.0M a year that works out to $2.222M per point.
http://www.tvmediainsights.com/2012/07/m...s-in-2012/
I cannot find BE specific numbers, but my assumption is that the BE will not be lower than the average ESPN2 game for 3/4 of the telecasts and not lower than ESPN for 1/4 of the remainder. Figure 3/4 of the games are ESPN type value and the other 1/4 being ESPN 2 type value.
(if anyone has the BE ratings from last year, let me know)
For the past season, here were the ratings:
ESPN 2 0.7
ESPN 1.8
http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/I...tings.aspx
using my 3/4 to 1/4 weighting, you get an 0.975 rating for the BE.
Let's now extrapolate out the comp.
If NBC is able to broadcast 4 games per week for 13 weeks, that is 52 games. The total Nielen points would be 52*.975 = 50.7 points. The points for the MLS were worth $2.222M, so the Big East for football only for 52 games comps to $112.66M for just 52 of the 112 games (14 teams) for the BE. (There is more inventory to sell)
That is $8.0M per team for football using the MLS as a comp for 14 teams just for the NBC piece. Consider that there was no adjustment to the comp since the MLS is not as commercial friendly as college football and that the core audience for NCAA football is the Men 18-49 category.
I am going to put a 25% kicker in for the commercial and 18-49 comp adjustment. ( I could it another 67% since the MLS negotiated at the time with ratings 67% lower than what is used in this model).
Meaning that for Tier 1, Football should be $10.0M.
Have to figure that Tier 2 will generate smaller dollars, but if the ratings are say 0.2 for another 36 games, then tier 2 should be worth another $20M per year (36 x 0.2 x $2.222 x 1.25).
So I will go out on a limb and say that football will get $11.4M per year for tier 1 and 2 rights. (I would adjust if anyone has the actual BE ratings for the whole season).