Here's some interesting reading...

Does FSU stay in the ACC now?

NolesDigest.com Wrote:Now that college football has a playoff beginning in 2014 and conference affiliation doesn't appear to be a big part of the format, does Florida State have any reasons left to go from the ACC to the Big 12?

Tuesday's announcement that a four-team playoff system will be implemented in 2014 changed the offseason conversation for college football, putting to rest -- at least for now -- all the speculation about what schools were possibly going to jump from one conference to another.

Florida State has been one of the most coveted universities potentially on the open market, as conjecture has bandied about for months that the Seminoles are a prime candidate to depart the basketball-centric ACC in favor of the football-rabid Big 12. Even though the school's president and athletics director publicly backed the ACC at every turn, the Board of Trustees and even football coach Jimbo Fisher admitted that the size of television contracts matters and FSU may have to be selfish from a dollars-and-cents perspective.

If the 'Noles are looking for a reason to leave behind the Tobacco Road types of the ACC and be welcomed in by the Texas-style open arms of the Big 12, there are many of them out there -- financial and otherwise. ACC commissioner John Swofford has always been a basketball-first guy and isn't regarded as much of a forward thinker in the ever-changing landscape of collegiate athletics, while new Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby is a passionate football man with a progressive mind and deserves at least some of the credit for the Big 12 going from shrinking to expanding in a relatively short period of time. Not to mention the fact that Florida State could earn a few million dollars more per year from TV by playing the likes of Texas and Oklahoma instead of Clemson and Virginia Tech.

how does Bowlsby deserve ANY of the credit for the Big 12 expanding? They got TCU and West Virginia 8 months before he took over and 7 months before he was announced as commish

They stay. Im sure FSU could make more in the Big12, but does the addition necessarily make long term financial sense to the Big12 now? They are assured a seat in the 4 team playoff with a one loss or undefeated champion (essentially). More than likely two seats in the future if the SEC takes a small step back. FSU is another mouth to feed and I'm not sure that splitting the pie another way would necessarily be worth it until figures come out on what the Big 12 could be expecting from bowls and the playoff system.
At the same time the ACC has locked in participation at the Orange bowl, and I assume that will pay more than it did before. There doen't appear to be any indication that an undefeated ACC champ, possibly even a 1 loss ACC champ would be shut out unless there are multiple undefeated teams in the the Big4. The new SOS factor should mean there are less ACC teams playing multiple FCS teams or Sunbelt teams which would in turn raise their SOS. FSU is top tier ACC along with VT and Clemson as opposed to being middle of the pack in the Big12. From FSU's viewpoint it may be eaiser in the ACC now.

I don't think FSU was going to leave anyway but put it in the "stranger things have happened" category. It wouldn't have completely shocked me but at the same time I just never thought it was a likely scenario.

I still don't see it happening. I think much of this "Big Four" talk is overstated. I concede that the Big XII has done a good job at positioning itself recently but do not agree that they are as desirable a home as many on these boards make them out to be. ACC implosion was just the recent soup de jure...a few months ago that was the Big XII. Maybe in due time the tables will be turned on that again.

We do know about a playoff now, though, and I think what we have heard is favorable to the ACC. As we all know, it takes winning to be a participant at the big boy table. If the ACC cannot do that in this next cycle then chips may well begin to fall. I am a firm believer that the talent and commitment is there, though, and hopeful that the FSUs of the world will come through for the conference this time around.

(06-27-2012 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  how does Bowlsby deserve ANY of the credit for the Big 12 expanding? They got TCU and West Virginia 8 months before he took over and 7 months before he was announced as commish

Bowsby gets credit for being a FOOTBALL man, unlike some other conference commissioners I can think of...

(06-27-2012 11:05 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(06-27-2012 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  how does Bowlsby deserve ANY of the credit for the Big 12 expanding? They got TCU and West Virginia 8 months before he took over and 7 months before he was announced as commish

Bowsby gets credit for being a FOOTBALL man, unlike some other conference commissioners I can think of...

Right, but the article you linked was crediting him for the expansion, which is complete bs

Here's an interesting question. Some things I've read are that OU/UT prefer not having a CCG because of the multiple disaster upsets in the Big XIICG over the years, and the northern schools (KU/KSU/ISU) like the round robin for retaining Texas access for recruiting.

If there is fire to the smoke over the last few months, it's pretty rare to have a program of FSU's caliber seeking entry into your league. Do we look back in 20-25 years on a Big XII decision to stay at 10 the same way people look back at the Big East blowing off Penn State?

(06-27-2012 11:07 AM)bronconick Wrote:  Here's an interesting question. Some things I've read are that OU/UT prefer not having a CCG because of the multiple disaster upsets in the Big XIICG over the years, and the northern schools (KU/KSU/ISU) like the round robin for retaining Texas access for recruiting.

If there is fire to the smoke over the last few months, it's pretty rare to have a program of FSU's caliber seeking entry into your league. Do we look back in 20-25 years on a Big XII decision to stay at 10 the same way people look back at the Big East blowing off Penn State?

It's very possible. Heck, might not take that long to regret it.

The only way FSU considers a move to the Big 12 is if they come with friends. The ACC has been given a position that allows FSU to negotiate with the Big 12 from a position of strength. If FSU and some friends can slip off to the Big 12 then whatever strength the ACC had is gone and whatever Bowl agreement they have now, it would be gone too. Everything is fluid and can change.

The problem is that the Big 12 doesn't seem willing to offer up the kind of bargain that FSU would agree to. The Big 12's stubbornness may be the best ally of the ACC. Should that change in the future though, we may be revisiting some of our conversations again. The ACC's tv contracts are set for quite some time and without the signing of Notre Dame to the conference there is no chance that the ACC is going to strengthen it's football footprint which will continue to be an issue for programs like FSU and Clemson.

As long as the SEC shows its favortism towards the Big 12 then the ACC will be viewed as the weaker of the two. I do not see what the ACC can do off the field to change that perception besides making for some very strong OOC schedules and that in turn can end up biting them in the rear, kind of like the FSU loss to Oklahoma. Start getting some strong OOC wins though and things will look up for the current ACC.

I think the money makes sense for both sides. If FSU can come with a school like a Clemson or a Georgia Tech I can easily see it happen.

The tv deals make for a pretty large gap if you consider:

1- The Big 12 even at 20mm per school begins at 3mm above the ACC. Add a conservative 1mm bump for each of FSU & Clemson (ACC got this for lesser additions of Pitt & Cuse) and a 1.5mm bump for the title game and it jumps to a 6.5mm gap.

2- The ACC has used up all football and basketball television rights. OU is about to get roughly 5mm by selling their tier 3 tv rights to Fox regional. FSU would get similar compensation for a similar deal. Even if it is half of that figure it is still 2.5mm they didn't get in the ACC. Minimum gap is now at 9mm. Over 10 years that is another year's 90mm budget.

This is before we consider:

- Champions bowl payout
- Likely greater per school revenue share from historical strength as playoff reports are hinting at
- More frequent revenue spikes from Big 12 teams qualifying in the top 4 playoff and sharing that money in the league.

I see a lot of financial reasons to bolt. Will they? Time will tell but it would not surprise me at all.

(06-27-2012 11:07 AM)bronconick Wrote:  Here's an interesting question. Some things I've read are that OU/UT prefer not having a CCG because of the multiple disaster upsets in the Big XIICG over the years, and the northern schools (KU/KSU/ISU) like the round robin for retaining Texas access for recruiting.

If there is fire to the smoke over the last few months, it's pretty rare to have a program of FSU's caliber seeking entry into your league. Do we look back in 20-25 years on a Big XII decision to stay at 10 the same way people look back at the Big East blowing off Penn State?

Yeah I think it very much it. The Big 12's short term vision clouding them to what would solidify them in the future. The ACC could very well have some strong seasons and if the Big 12 has some weaker seasons in that time, the power flips to some degree.

There is still a lot to be seen, we dont really know until the new Big 12 contract is finalized. If it comes with a longer GoR then we might see another time of uncertainty.

Follow the money

(06-27-2012 11:07 AM)bronconick Wrote:  Here's an interesting question. Some things I've read are that OU/UT prefer not having a CCG because of the multiple disaster upsets in the Big XIICG over the years, and the northern schools (KU/KSU/ISU) like the round robin for retaining Texas access for recruiting.

If there is fire to the smoke over the last few months, it's pretty rare to have a program of FSU's caliber seeking entry into your league. Do we look back in 20-25 years on a Big XII decision to stay at 10 the same way people look back at the Big East blowing off Penn State?

No, because if FSU doesn't join the Big 12, it will be because FSU decided they weren't interested. A ccg can be tolerated by anyone-and they don't have to have it even with 12. Divsion alignments are difficult, but can be worked out. Noone serious (unless they are a decision maker who has it direct from ND and aren't telling anyone) expects ND to join any conference in football in the next few years. The idea that the Big 12 is telling FSU no is just not believable.

(06-27-2012 11:14 AM)Sammy11 Wrote:  I think the money makes sense for both sides. If FSU can come with a school like a Clemson or a Georgia Tech I can easily see it happen.

The tv deals make for a pretty large gap if you consider:

1- The Big 12 even at 20mm per school begins at 3mm above the ACC. Add a conservative 1mm bump for each of FSU & Clemson (ACC got this for lesser additions of Pitt & Cuse) and a 1.5mm bump for the title game and it jumps to a 6.5mm gap.

2- The ACC has used up all football and basketball television rights. OU is about to get roughly 5mm by selling their tier 3 tv rights to Fox regional. FSU would get similar compensation for a similar deal. Even if it is half of that figure it is still 2.5mm they didn't get in the ACC. Minimum gap is now at 9mm. Over 10 years that is another year's 90mm budget.

This is before we consider:

- Champions bowl payout
- Likely greater per school revenue share from historical strength as playoff reports are hinting at
- More frequent revenue spikes from Big 12 teams qualifying in the top 4 playoff and sharing that money in the league.

I see a lot of financial reasons to bolt. Will they? Time will tell but it would not surprise me at all.

I don't think the problem has ever been FSU. I think the problem has been certain entities within the Big 12. To the degree that it almost seems insulting to FSU. FSU is a school that seems to hold grudges. Their current one is held against the SEC. The last thing the Big 12 should do is insult FSU by negotiating with them as if they are in a position of weakness. That is a bridge the Big 12 really needs to not burn.

(06-27-2012 11:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-27-2012 11:07 AM)bronconick Wrote:  Here's an interesting question. Some things I've read are that OU/UT prefer not having a CCG because of the multiple disaster upsets in the Big XIICG over the years, and the northern schools (KU/KSU/ISU) like the round robin for retaining Texas access for recruiting.

If there is fire to the smoke over the last few months, it's pretty rare to have a program of FSU's caliber seeking entry into your league. Do we look back in 20-25 years on a Big XII decision to stay at 10 the same way people look back at the Big East blowing off Penn State?

No, because if FSU doesn't join the Big 12, it will be because FSU decided they weren't interested. A ccg can be tolerated by anyone-and they don't have to have it even with 12. Divsion alignments are difficult, but can be worked out. Noone serious (unless they are a decision maker who has it direct from ND and aren't telling anyone) expects ND to join any conference in football in the next few years. The idea that the Big 12 is telling FSU no is just not believable.

That is not what it is about. It is about the Big 12 telling FSU no as far as the scenario that FSU would agree to. The Big 12 wants Notre Dame first and foremost. That in itself is a slap in the face to FSU that they are placed into the sidekick position to Notre Dame. The agreement that would have perhaps worked was FSU being the major grab and a team like Clemson or Georgia Tech coming with them as Their sidekick. By bringing in FSU first that makes any future expansion likely to be in their area. By having Notre Dame be the major grab and FSU the minor that means future expansion is more likely to be that which makes Notre Dame happy.

The Big 12 is/was foolish to pick Notre Dame as their major target.

(06-27-2012 11:17 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-27-2012 11:14 AM)Sammy11 Wrote:  I think the money makes sense for both sides. If FSU can come with a school like a Clemson or a Georgia Tech I can easily see it happen.

The tv deals make for a pretty large gap if you consider:

1- The Big 12 even at 20mm per school begins at 3mm above the ACC. Add a conservative 1mm bump for each of FSU & Clemson (ACC got this for lesser additions of Pitt & Cuse) and a 1.5mm bump for the title game and it jumps to a 6.5mm gap.

2- The ACC has used up all football and basketball television rights. OU is about to get roughly 5mm by selling their tier 3 tv rights to Fox regional. FSU would get similar compensation for a similar deal. Even if it is half of that figure it is still 2.5mm they didn't get in the ACC. Minimum gap is now at 9mm. Over 10 years that is another year's 90mm budget.

This is before we consider:

- Champions bowl payout
- Likely greater per school revenue share from historical strength as playoff reports are hinting at
- More frequent revenue spikes from Big 12 teams qualifying in the top 4 playoff and sharing that money in the league.

I see a lot of financial reasons to bolt. Will they? Time will tell but it would not surprise me at all.

I don't think the problem has ever been FSU. I think the problem has been certain entities within the Big 12. To the degree that it almost seems insulting to FSU. FSU is a school that seems to hold grudges. Their current one is held against the SEC. The last thing the Big 12 should do is insult FSU by negotiating with them as if they are in a position of weakness. That is a bridge the Big 12 really needs to not burn.

I know it is popular to paint UT as against the rest of us but people I trust have said it is BS about them opposing any of FSU, Clemson, or GT.

(06-27-2012 11:14 AM)Sammy11 Wrote:  I think the money makes sense for both sides. If FSU can come with a school like a Clemson or a Georgia Tech I can easily see it happen.

The tv deals make for a pretty large gap if you consider:

1- The Big 12 even at 20mm per school begins at 3mm above the ACC. Add a conservative 1mm bump for each of FSU & Clemson (ACC got this for lesser additions of Pitt & Cuse) and a 1.5mm bump for the title game and it jumps to a 6.5mm gap.

2- The ACC has used up all football and basketball television rights. OU is about to get roughly 5mm by selling their tier 3 tv rights to Fox regional. FSU would get similar compensation for a similar deal. Even if it is half of that figure it is still 2.5mm they didn't get in the ACC. Minimum gap is now at 9mm. Over 10 years that is another year's 90mm budget.

This is before we consider:

- Champions bowl payout
- Likely greater per school revenue share from historical strength as playoff reports are hinting at
- More frequent revenue spikes from Big 12 teams qualifying in the top 4 playoff and sharing that money in the league.

I see a lot of financial reasons to bolt. Will they? Time will tell but it would not surprise me at all.

FSU president used the figure of $22 million for Big 12 TV revenues. He estimated $2 million in additional travel expenses (sounds high given that Hawaii gets by with $3 million total, but its the best figure we have). The ACC deal is 4 years longer and escalates, so the comparable figure to the Big 12 is less than $16 million. So its $22-$2-$16=$4 million before Tier 3 and potential bowl and playoff differences. FSU was conducting a tier 3 study, so should have an idea soon of that if they don't already. Its not clear how refined the playoff $ allocations are, so that may not be known at this point.

Follow the money is spot on.....if not this year, then next....with an Eastern partner.

(06-27-2012 11:20 AM)Sammy11 Wrote:  

(06-27-2012 11:17 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-27-2012 11:14 AM)Sammy11 Wrote:  I think the money makes sense for both sides. If FSU can come with a school like a Clemson or a Georgia Tech I can easily see it happen.

The tv deals make for a pretty large gap if you consider:

1- The Big 12 even at 20mm per school begins at 3mm above the ACC. Add a conservative 1mm bump for each of FSU & Clemson (ACC got this for lesser additions of Pitt & Cuse) and a 1.5mm bump for the title game and it jumps to a 6.5mm gap.

2- The ACC has used up all football and basketball television rights. OU is about to get roughly 5mm by selling their tier 3 tv rights to Fox regional. FSU would get similar compensation for a similar deal. Even if it is half of that figure it is still 2.5mm they didn't get in the ACC. Minimum gap is now at 9mm. Over 10 years that is another year's 90mm budget.

This is before we consider:

- Champions bowl payout
- Likely greater per school revenue share from historical strength as playoff reports are hinting at
- More frequent revenue spikes from Big 12 teams qualifying in the top 4 playoff and sharing that money in the league.

I see a lot of financial reasons to bolt. Will they? Time will tell but it would not surprise me at all.

I don't think the problem has ever been FSU. I think the problem has been certain entities within the Big 12. To the degree that it almost seems insulting to FSU. FSU is a school that seems to hold grudges. Their current one is held against the SEC. The last thing the Big 12 should do is insult FSU by negotiating with them as if they are in a position of weakness. That is a bridge the Big 12 really needs to not burn.

I know it is popular to paint UT as against the rest of us but people I trust have said it is BS about them opposing any of FSU, Clemson, or GT.

I am not one of those that generally demonizes Texas. In fact usually I am one of those talking about how such talk is silly. Unfortunately though I find it very believable that Dodds and crew put Notre Dame at the top of their list and they are not yet willing to give up on that. Grabbing FSU and Clemson right away means expansion past 12 and the Big 12 definitely does not seem ready to commit to that kind of future expansion. Texas definitely does not seem to desire that kind of commitment just yet. So in this case yes, Texas is holding you guys back by keeping the door open for Notre Dame. In that way Notre Dame is running Big 12 expansion, not the Big 12.

That is foolish and could cost you guys your best option should that option feel insulted over the whole issue. It certainly would explain Dabo's harsh public tirade against the idea of moving to the Big 12.

(06-27-2012 11:20 AM)He1nousOne Wrote:  

(06-27-2012 11:15 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(06-27-2012 11:07 AM)bronconick Wrote:  Here's an interesting question. Some things I've read are that OU/UT prefer not having a CCG because of the multiple disaster upsets in the Big XIICG over the years, and the northern schools (KU/KSU/ISU) like the round robin for retaining Texas access for recruiting.

If there is fire to the smoke over the last few months, it's pretty rare to have a program of FSU's caliber seeking entry into your league. Do we look back in 20-25 years on a Big XII decision to stay at 10 the same way people look back at the Big East blowing off Penn State?

No, because if FSU doesn't join the Big 12, it will be because FSU decided they weren't interested. A ccg can be tolerated by anyone-and they don't have to have it even with 12. Divsion alignments are difficult, but can be worked out. Noone serious (unless they are a decision maker who has it direct from ND and aren't telling anyone) expects ND to join any conference in football in the next few years. The idea that the Big 12 is telling FSU no is just not believable.

That is not what it is about. It is about the Big 12 telling FSU no as far as the scenario that FSU would agree to. The Big 12 wants Notre Dame first and foremost. That in itself is a slap in the face to FSU that they are placed into the sidekick position to Notre Dame. The agreement that would have perhaps worked was FSU being the major grab and a team like Clemson or Georgia Tech coming with them as Their sidekick. By bringing in FSU first that makes any future expansion likely to be in their area. By having Notre Dame be the major grab and FSU the minor that means future expansion is more likely to be that which makes Notre Dame happy.

The Big 12 is/was foolish to pick Notre Dame as their major target.

The only scenario where I see that could be an issue is if FSU wants 4 and the Big 12 only wants 2 at this time. And the Big 12 knows it will not get Notre Dame in football anytime soon, so it would be FSU + 1 ACC school (if any were willing) or UL if no ACC schools would come. And I haven't seen anything saying FSU was stuck on the Big 12 going to 14.