(05-24-2012 10:43 AM)piratefan1975 Wrote: Now, as 4x4Hokie mentioned above, the ACC and Big 12 recently renegotiated their contracts based on the additions of Pitt, Cuse and TCU and WVU, respectively.
This graph shows the correlation between average attendance and TV revenue. The average attendance of both the ACC and Big 12 has been adjusted to include the new additions. It also reflects the value of their new TV contracts accordingly.
4x4Hokie nailed it. These new contracts push the "best fit" line steeper; although there is still a correlation between attendance and revenue.
This graph brings the ACC and Big 12 in line with the Pac 12. The Big 10 network revenues and the SEC lag behind now. What will the SEC do in response?
The Big East is even more undervalued based on their former average conference attendance.
It's worth noting, that
1. if the original BIG EAST offer was included, then the BIG EAST is consistent with what it should be. Since, I think that the BIG EAST info includes BIG EAST teams at the point of the last offer, then I think that it's more accurate to include the offer that the actual contract, which invollved an entirely different set of teams.
2. the SEC is currently in the process of renegotiating, and is expected to get a substantial bump. The coming bump will make it closer to what it should be according to the graph.
3. the B1G is the next major conference to renegotiate, and it will likely renegotiate in a year or two. The B1G should see an increase too, which will bring it closer to where it should be. Actually, since all these contracts are back-loaded and the B1G contract is the oldest, it's worth noting that the B1G contract is overperforming, and paying out more than it's average payout, whereas all the other contracts are paying out below their average payout. Going by actual payouts, the B1G is probs almost exactly where it should be.
In short, the BIG EAST is low because the attendance numbers involve one set of teams, and the payout involves a different set of teams, the SEC is low because the contract is being renegotiated, and the B1G is low because the contract is about to be renegotiated. The rest are very close to where they should be.
These graphs confirm what I've been saying all along. TV value is a factor of fans, (potential fans*the liklihood of realizing that potential), enthusiasm, and (potential fan enthusiasm*the liklihood of realizing that potential).
It is NOT a factor of being "in" markets, except to the extent that being "in" markets increases the liklihood of a team realizing their potential.