(05-02-2012 01:01 AM)TripleA Wrote:  I followed Greg Swaim fairly closely on realignment. I don't know him from anywhere else, so I cannot speak to his knowledge on anything but realignment. Without looking up the details, I can say with confidence that I cannot recall one time when he ever got anything right, and I recall dozens of times he was wrong.

This.

I'll even give an example from recent developments. Swaim has been all over BYU to the Big XII since January, saying it's a done deal, they're coming with Louisville this summer, etc. Now he's completely changed his tune on BYU over the last couple of weeks, saying they're not interested, the Big XII aren't interested, etc. About a month ago he started this kick about FSU and Clemson coming to the Big XII and even suggested that they would be 11 & 12, and Louisville was not coming. Since then, he's been back to saying Louisville is #11 and now he's added Cincy as #12, with FSU and Clemson as schools to get to 14.

Swaim says a lot of stuff. As someone else pointed out, the more stuff he says, the better chance he has of having something be right.

(05-01-2012 07:54 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  I really do not see how Louisville and Cincinatti helps sign Florida State and Clemson. I do honestly believe in the idea that there is much to gain for FSU and Clemson joining the Big 12 but I do not see how Cincinatti helps break into the Ohio market to any worthwhile degree. Cinci is so limited when it comes to facilities that having games there limits you to being broadcasted online and not on TV. It is a terrible venue for tv.

Hate to tell ya this but UC has been on TV much more than Iowa....And they can play in a top notch NFL stadium if need be. Big city and bright lights/ cornfields and scarecrows........What looks better?

(05-01-2012 09:34 PM)buckaineer Wrote:  Ohio has over 11 million people and a large number of them aren't Buckeye fans. A good portion are Bearcat fans and a good portion will watch both.

They are the only two BCS programs in a huge football loving state.

Texas and Oklahoma and schools like WVU playing in Cincinnati will draw interest from football players in the state no doubt--has so far when OU and WVU played there (both recent games moved to Paul Brown for the larger crowds)

You don't know much about Ohio do you? I am up in NE Ohio (Cuyahoga Falls to be exact is where my place is) and you could not be more wrong about Cincy up here. They are completely irreverent in fact it can be a chore to find any of their stuff around here and don't even bother to look for the game if there is ANY other game on with any sort of pulse (sure they might watch them over Washington V nobody but really is that saying much?). There is only one college show for the VAST majority of Ohio. I allow for Cincy to take Cincy but I am taking that on their word because that was not my experience there but I am assured that this is due to my lack of experience there.

(05-02-2012 08:11 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 07:44 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 09:34 PM)buckaineer Wrote:  Ohio has over 11 million people and a large number of them aren't Buckeye fans. A good portion are Bearcat fans and a good portion will watch both.

They are the only two BCS programs in a huge football loving state.

Texas and Oklahoma and schools like WVU playing in Cincinnati will draw interest from football players in the state no doubt--has so far when OU and WVU played there (both recent games moved to Paul Brown for the larger crowds)

You may want to rethink that statement. OSU by far is the dominant school in the state of OH from both a fan and performance basis. Your "significant" number of fans may 20% tops of all fans, which I would put at maybe 1 - 1.2 million actual viewers.

Use some logic for once and look at this closely. Swaim claims that the SEC, Big12 and B1G will be expanding in 2013 - 2014. The schools on the move, according to Swaim, are FSU, Clemson, VT, UL and UC. So which one of those schools are going to the B1G? All of the crazy rumors are putting FSU and Clemson into the Big12 camp, we know VT is commonly referenced for the SEC (who is the other for the SEC?). That means UC and UL are B1G bound? NFW.

I swear that a number of posters on this board lack critical thinking skills.

You are right to say Ohio State has the heart and minds of most of the people in the state. That being said if Cincinnati is playing Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, etc. you'd better believe there will be a lot of television sets on in Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, Cleveland, Akron, Toledo and points in between. Those are sets that in the past was not watching Texas play Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, etc.

I don't believe UC is headed to the Big 12 anytime soon nor do I believe its the best fit for the Bearcats; however, I do believe Cincinnati would bring the Cincinnati market and exposure into Ohio.

Ohio State football recieves some exposure in Cincinnati, basketball very little. Cincinnati is a Reds, Bengals, Bearcats, and Muskies town. Cincinnati is also a big event town. Football games against Texas and Oklahoma would be big draws. Games against Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Baylor wouldn't do much for the Cincinnati crowd even though those schools can be pretty darn good at times.

I would prefer that the Big 12 does nothing and that Cincinnati grows in the Big East because they belong in a metro-urban basketball focused conference that also plays decent football.

(05-02-2012 11:01 AM)bearcatlawjd Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 08:11 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 07:44 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 09:34 PM)buckaineer Wrote:  Ohio has over 11 million people and a large number of them aren't Buckeye fans. A good portion are Bearcat fans and a good portion will watch both.

They are the only two BCS programs in a huge football loving state.

Texas and Oklahoma and schools like WVU playing in Cincinnati will draw interest from football players in the state no doubt--has so far when OU and WVU played there (both recent games moved to Paul Brown for the larger crowds)

You may want to rethink that statement. OSU by far is the dominant school in the state of OH from both a fan and performance basis. Your "significant" number of fans may 20% tops of all fans, which I would put at maybe 1 - 1.2 million actual viewers.

Use some logic for once and look at this closely. Swaim claims that the SEC, Big12 and B1G will be expanding in 2013 - 2014. The schools on the move, according to Swaim, are FSU, Clemson, VT, UL and UC. So which one of those schools are going to the B1G? All of the crazy rumors are putting FSU and Clemson into the Big12 camp, we know VT is commonly referenced for the SEC (who is the other for the SEC?). That means UC and UL are B1G bound? NFW.

I swear that a number of posters on this board lack critical thinking skills.

You are right to say Ohio State has the heart and minds of most of the people in the state. That being said if Cincinnati is playing Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, etc. you'd better believe there will be a lot of television sets on in Cincinnati, Dayton, Columbus, Cleveland, Akron, Toledo and points in between. Those are sets that in the past was not watching Texas play Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, etc.

I don't believe UC is headed to the Big 12 anytime soon nor do I believe its the best fit for the Bearcats; however, I do believe Cincinnati would bring the Cincinnati market and exposure into Ohio.

Ohio State football recieves some exposure in Cincinnati, basketball very little. Cincinnati is a Reds, Bengals, Bearcats, and Muskies town. Cincinnati is also a big event town. Football games against Texas and Oklahoma would be big draws. Games against Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Baylor wouldn't do much for the Cincinnati crowd even though those schools can be pretty darn good at times.

I would prefer that the Big 12 does nothing and that Cincinnati grows in the Big East because they belong in a metro-urban basketball focused conference that also plays decent football.

This I can mostly agree with. Exposure would be small overall in the state but it is still there and if they have a good year and all other Ohio schools are down then people may pay attention for a year. City schools tend to support "events" and Oklahoma/Texas would likely count (this is true for most city schools I would think).

(05-01-2012 08:34 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 07:48 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Has Swaim been right one time yet?

Given that he has predicted almost every possible scenario, I'm sure he's gotten several things right.

I could not agree more. I am amazed at the excitement surrounding realignment, when I'm not caught up in it as well. If we removed the topic of football and asked why so many venerable institutions were resltess enough to uproot traditions, fan rivalries, and leave old friends for new pastures we would get a far more sobering impression. Scavangers appear when life sustaining resources are scarce.

What we are witnessing is the desperation that sets in when denial begins to fade and the realization that tomorrow will be very different from a healthy past becomes obvious. Football realignment is a symptom of significant economic uncertainty.

The University of Alabama is undertaking an enlargement of Bryant-Denney Stadium after the first downward blip in SEC attendence in over 4 decades. They are obligating themselves for huge sums while the economic growth of their state is almost horizontal.

Inflation in fuel and groceries is shrinking disposable income for the middle class to a tune of just under 20% over the past 3 years. Too bad we don't count that in government statistics. At the same time many SEC football tickets are climbing to over $70 a ticket (after contributions to obtain the right to purchase them are made) for the cheap seats (endzone & upperdeck). Two season ticket books are a hair under $1,000 and can only be had after a contribution of $500 up to $2500 depending on seating in normal areas and far higher for others.

The denial by members of academia about what is really transpiring in our culture is appalling. Enrollment goes down so they seek a 3% c.o.l.a. and raise tuition. Concession sales drop so they raise the cost of a stadium coke to $5 and hotdogs to $4. Then enrollment and concessions go down again. The whole thing is insane.

I love NCAA football from all regions of the country. I hope the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 all get great contracts or find ways to prosper more from their products. But, the sports entertainment business, as a luxury item, is on the backside of a very big disposable income bubble that is about to pop. I hope our new contracts see us through this dark time.

Anybody who can watch West Virginia move to the midwest, Missouri move to the southeast, and Boise move from coast to other coast, and fail to see these changes as huge warning signs is either independently wealthy, or about to become a victim. JR

(05-01-2012 07:45 PM)buckaineer Wrote:  Excerpts from Swaim--time will tell (reads from bottom up)

Greg Swaim ‏ @GSwaim

All I heard was

(05-02-2012 12:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Inflation in fuel and groceries is shrinking disposable income for the middle class to a tune of just under 20% over the past 3 years. Too bad we don't count that in government statistics. At the same time many SEC football tickets are climbing to over $70 a ticket (after contributions to obtain the right to purchase them are made) for the cheap seats (endzone & upperdeck). Two season ticket books are a hair under $1,000 and can only be had after a contribution of $500 up to $2500 depending on seating in normal areas and far higher for others.

The denial by members of academia about what is really transpiring in our culture is appalling. Enrollment goes down so they seek a 3% c.o.l.a. and raise tuition. Concession sales drop so they raise the cost of a stadium coke to $5 and hotdogs to $4. Then enrollment and concessions go down again. The whole thing is insane.

I love NCAA football from all regions of the country. I hope the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 all get great contracts or find ways to prosper more from their products. But, the sports entertainment business, as a luxury item, is on the backside of a very big disposable income bubble that is about to pop. I hope our new contracts see us through this dark time.

Anybody who can watch West Virginia move to the midwest, Missouri move to the southeast, and Boise move from coast to other coast, and fail to see these changes as huge warning signs is either independently wealthy, or about to become a victim. JR

Interesting points. The cash flow for college sports might well slow to a trickle and leave a lot of schools holding the bag. Pro sports, too -- the cost of their tickets and concessions, and the TV money those franchises depend on, might not be sustainable. Time will tell.

(05-02-2012 10:50 AM)cardshouse Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 07:54 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  I really do not see how Louisville and Cincinatti helps sign Florida State and Clemson. I do honestly believe in the idea that there is much to gain for FSU and Clemson joining the Big 12 but I do not see how Cincinatti helps break into the Ohio market to any worthwhile degree. Cinci is so limited when it comes to facilities that having games there limits you to being broadcasted online and not on TV. It is a terrible venue for tv.

Hate to tell ya this but UC has been on TV much more than Iowa....And they can play in a top notch NFL stadium if need be. Big city and bright lights/ cornfields and scarecrows........What looks better?

What is wrong with you people? You are NOT competing with Iowa to get into the Big 12. All these comments about comparing Cincy to Iowa simply because I do not believe that Cincy is a frontrunner for the Big 12, it makes no sense at all.

(05-02-2012 12:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 08:34 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 07:48 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Has Swaim been right one time yet?

Given that he has predicted almost every possible scenario, I'm sure he's gotten several things right.

I could not agree more. I am amazed at the excitement surrounding realignment, when I'm not caught up in it as well. If we removed the topic of football and asked why so many venerable institutions were resltess enough to uproot traditions, fan rivalries, and leave old friends for new pastures we would get a far more sobering impression. Scavangers appear when life sustaining resources are scarce.

What we are witnessing is the desperation that sets in when denial begins to fade and the realization that tomorrow will be very different from a healthy past becomes obvious. Football realignment is a symptom of significant economic uncertainty.

The University of Alabama is undertaking an enlargement of Bryant-Denney Stadium after the first downward blip in SEC attendence in over 4 decades. They are obligating themselves for huge sums while the economic growth of their state is almost horizontal.

Inflation in fuel and groceries is shrinking disposable income for the middle class to a tune of just under 20% over the past 3 years. Too bad we don't count that in government statistics. At the same time many SEC football tickets are climbing to over $70 a ticket (after contributions to obtain the right to purchase them are made) for the cheap seats (endzone & upperdeck). Two season ticket books are a hair under $1,000 and can only be had after a contribution of $500 up to $2500 depending on seating in normal areas and far higher for others.

The denial by members of academia about what is really transpiring in our culture is appalling. Enrollment goes down so they seek a 3% c.o.l.a. and raise tuition. Concession sales drop so they raise the cost of a stadium coke to $5 and hotdogs to $4. Then enrollment and concessions go down again. The whole thing is insane.

I love NCAA football from all regions of the country. I hope the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 all get great contracts or find ways to prosper more from their products. But, the sports entertainment business, as a luxury item, is on the backside of a very big disposable income bubble that is about to pop. I hope our new contracts see us through this dark time.

Anybody who can watch West Virginia move to the midwest, Missouri move to the southeast, and Boise move from coast to other coast, and fail to see these changes as huge warning signs is either independently wealthy, or about to become a victim. JR

Down here in Baton Rouge, LSU just committed to spend $100 million dollars to add some luxury boxes to Tiger Stadium and increase the seating capacity from around 92,500 to around 100,000.

Sultan of Euphonistan ' Wrote:  

You don't know much about Ohio do you? I am up in NE Ohio (Cuyahoga Falls to be exact is where my place is) and you could not be more wrong about Cincy up here. They are completely irreverent in fact it can be a chore to find any of their stuff around here and don't even bother to look for the game if there is ANY other game on with any sort of pulse (sure they might watch them over Washington V nobody but really is that saying much?). There is only one college show for the VAST majority of Ohio. I allow for Cincy to take Cincy but I am taking that on their word because that was not my experience there but I am assured that this is due to my lack of experience there.

Michigan has a huge fanbase in northwest Ohio, bigger than any school besides OSU.

(05-02-2012 01:48 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 12:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 08:34 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 07:48 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Has Swaim been right one time yet?

Given that he has predicted almost every possible scenario, I'm sure he's gotten several things right.

I could not agree more. I am amazed at the excitement surrounding realignment, when I'm not caught up in it as well. If we removed the topic of football and asked why so many venerable institutions were resltess enough to uproot traditions, fan rivalries, and leave old friends for new pastures we would get a far more sobering impression. Scavangers appear when life sustaining resources are scarce.

What we are witnessing is the desperation that sets in when denial begins to fade and the realization that tomorrow will be very different from a healthy past becomes obvious. Football realignment is a symptom of significant economic uncertainty.

The University of Alabama is undertaking an enlargement of Bryant-Denney Stadium after the first downward blip in SEC attendence in over 4 decades. They are obligating themselves for huge sums while the economic growth of their state is almost horizontal.

Inflation in fuel and groceries is shrinking disposable income for the middle class to a tune of just under 20% over the past 3 years. Too bad we don't count that in government statistics. At the same time many SEC football tickets are climbing to over $70 a ticket (after contributions to obtain the right to purchase them are made) for the cheap seats (endzone & upperdeck). Two season ticket books are a hair under $1,000 and can only be had after a contribution of $500 up to $2500 depending on seating in normal areas and far higher for others.

The denial by members of academia about what is really transpiring in our culture is appalling. Enrollment goes down so they seek a 3% c.o.l.a. and raise tuition. Concession sales drop so they raise the cost of a stadium coke to $5 and hotdogs to $4. Then enrollment and concessions go down again. The whole thing is insane.

I love NCAA football from all regions of the country. I hope the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 all get great contracts or find ways to prosper more from their products. But, the sports entertainment business, as a luxury item, is on the backside of a very big disposable income bubble that is about to pop. I hope our new contracts see us through this dark time.

Anybody who can watch West Virginia move to the midwest, Missouri move to the southeast, and Boise move from coast to other coast, and fail to see these changes as huge warning signs is either independently wealthy, or about to become a victim. JR

Down here in Baton Rouge, LSU just committed to spend $100 million dollars to add some luxury boxes to Tiger Stadium and increase the seating capacity from around 92,500 to around 100,000.

I'm sure that's true. There are some interesting articles about sports futuring and the arenas of tomorrow that you might be able to find in a search. They basically concluded that luxury accommodations will continue to trend upward, but that stadium size in terms of common seats will not be a plus. High Defininition television, fuel costs, etc., were cited as reasons for the decline that is expected among the truly middle class.

Even declining enrollment, which is a nationwide trend perhaps not felt in the largest of state schools yet, will be a contributor to the downturn in attendence.

Look at the building boom in Miami, Florida. They were still building more condos right up until the housing bubble broke. Projects are left unfinished. The retail level of any business lags behind other economic factors. Businesses are built from the ground up, but usually crumble from the top down. My point about expansion at Alabama was that their vision is built upon data that may no longer be relevant. All pre 2008 data has to now be suspect for forming longrange projections in any field of endeavor. The seismic economic rift that happened then is still being measured in global terms.

I just know from personal experience that the quicker you respond to cultural shifts the healthier you are on the other side of them. The present malaise may not pass until the baby boomers are gone in 20 years or so. The new paradigm for America is a succeeding generation that will earn less than the preceeding one and yet pay more in taxes than their parents and grandparents did. It is a novel situation for our country and until the votes of the Boomers are diminished politicians will be reticent to act on any measures required to get the debt under control.

My hope is that large building projects be put on hold, or modified, until the full scope of change can be ascertained. Then our institutions will save money, and the interest compounded on it. JR

(05-02-2012 02:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 01:48 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 12:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 08:34 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 07:48 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Has Swaim been right one time yet?

Given that he has predicted almost every possible scenario, I'm sure he's gotten several things right.

I could not agree more. I am amazed at the excitement surrounding realignment, when I'm not caught up in it as well. If we removed the topic of football and asked why so many venerable institutions were resltess enough to uproot traditions, fan rivalries, and leave old friends for new pastures we would get a far more sobering impression. Scavangers appear when life sustaining resources are scarce.

What we are witnessing is the desperation that sets in when denial begins to fade and the realization that tomorrow will be very different from a healthy past becomes obvious. Football realignment is a symptom of significant economic uncertainty.

The University of Alabama is undertaking an enlargement of Bryant-Denney Stadium after the first downward blip in SEC attendence in over 4 decades. They are obligating themselves for huge sums while the economic growth of their state is almost horizontal.

Inflation in fuel and groceries is shrinking disposable income for the middle class to a tune of just under 20% over the past 3 years. Too bad we don't count that in government statistics. At the same time many SEC football tickets are climbing to over $70 a ticket (after contributions to obtain the right to purchase them are made) for the cheap seats (endzone & upperdeck). Two season ticket books are a hair under $1,000 and can only be had after a contribution of $500 up to $2500 depending on seating in normal areas and far higher for others.

The denial by members of academia about what is really transpiring in our culture is appalling. Enrollment goes down so they seek a 3% c.o.l.a. and raise tuition. Concession sales drop so they raise the cost of a stadium coke to $5 and hotdogs to $4. Then enrollment and concessions go down again. The whole thing is insane.

I love NCAA football from all regions of the country. I hope the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 all get great contracts or find ways to prosper more from their products. But, the sports entertainment business, as a luxury item, is on the backside of a very big disposable income bubble that is about to pop. I hope our new contracts see us through this dark time.

Anybody who can watch West Virginia move to the midwest, Missouri move to the southeast, and Boise move from coast to other coast, and fail to see these changes as huge warning signs is either independently wealthy, or about to become a victim. JR

Down here in Baton Rouge, LSU just committed to spend $100 million dollars to add some luxury boxes to Tiger Stadium and increase the seating capacity from around 92,500 to around 100,000.

I'm sure that's true. There are some interesting articles about sports futuring and the arenas of tomorrow that you might be able to find in a search. They basically concluded that luxury accommodations will continue to trend upward, but that stadium size in terms of common seats will not be a plus. High Defininition television, fuel costs, etc., were cited as reasons for the decline that is expected among the truly middle class.

Even declining enrollment, which is a nationwide trend perhaps not felt in the largest of state schools yet, will be a contributor to the downturn in attendence.

Look at the building boom in Miami, Florida. They were still building more condos right up until the housing bubble broke. Projects are left unfinished. The retail level of any business lags behind other economic factors. Businesses are built from the ground up, but usually crumble from the top down. My point about expansion at Alabama was that their vision is built upon data that may no longer be relevant. All pre 2008 data has to now be suspect for forming longrange projections in any field of endeavor. The seismic economic rift that happened then is still being measured in global terms.

I just know from personal experience that the quicker you respond to cultural shifts the healthier you are on the other side of them. The present malaise may not pass until the baby boomers are gone in 20 years or so. The new paradigm for America is a succeeding generation that will earn less than the preceeding one and yet pay more in taxes than their parents and grandparents did. It is a novel situation for our country and until the votes of the Boomers are diminished politicians will be reticent to act on any measures required to get the debt under control.

My hope is that large building projects be put on hold, or modified, until the full scope of change can be ascertained. Then our institutions will save money, and the interest compounded on it. JR

I take it you've never seen a real estate bust before? Ask anyone from Texas about the mid-80s there.

There may be a college sports TV$ bubble, but real estate will recover.

(05-02-2012 05:11 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 02:57 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 01:48 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(05-02-2012 12:32 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-01-2012 08:34 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Given that he has predicted almost every possible scenario, I'm sure he's gotten several things right.

I could not agree more. I am amazed at the excitement surrounding realignment, when I'm not caught up in it as well. If we removed the topic of football and asked why so many venerable institutions were resltess enough to uproot traditions, fan rivalries, and leave old friends for new pastures we would get a far more sobering impression. Scavangers appear when life sustaining resources are scarce.

What we are witnessing is the desperation that sets in when denial begins to fade and the realization that tomorrow will be very different from a healthy past becomes obvious. Football realignment is a symptom of significant economic uncertainty.

The University of Alabama is undertaking an enlargement of Bryant-Denney Stadium after the first downward blip in SEC attendence in over 4 decades. They are obligating themselves for huge sums while the economic growth of their state is almost horizontal.

Inflation in fuel and groceries is shrinking disposable income for the middle class to a tune of just under 20% over the past 3 years. Too bad we don't count that in government statistics. At the same time many SEC football tickets are climbing to over $70 a ticket (after contributions to obtain the right to purchase them are made) for the cheap seats (endzone & upperdeck). Two season ticket books are a hair under $1,000 and can only be had after a contribution of $500 up to $2500 depending on seating in normal areas and far higher for others.

The denial by members of academia about what is really transpiring in our culture is appalling. Enrollment goes down so they seek a 3% c.o.l.a. and raise tuition. Concession sales drop so they raise the cost of a stadium coke to $5 and hotdogs to $4. Then enrollment and concessions go down again. The whole thing is insane.

I love NCAA football from all regions of the country. I hope the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 all get great contracts or find ways to prosper more from their products. But, the sports entertainment business, as a luxury item, is on the backside of a very big disposable income bubble that is about to pop. I hope our new contracts see us through this dark time.

Anybody who can watch West Virginia move to the midwest, Missouri move to the southeast, and Boise move from coast to other coast, and fail to see these changes as huge warning signs is either independently wealthy, or about to become a victim. JR

Down here in Baton Rouge, LSU just committed to spend $100 million dollars to add some luxury boxes to Tiger Stadium and increase the seating capacity from around 92,500 to around 100,000.

I'm sure that's true. There are some interesting articles about sports futuring and the arenas of tomorrow that you might be able to find in a search. They basically concluded that luxury accommodations will continue to trend upward, but that stadium size in terms of common seats will not be a plus. High Defininition television, fuel costs, etc., were cited as reasons for the decline that is expected among the truly middle class.

Even declining enrollment, which is a nationwide trend perhaps not felt in the largest of state schools yet, will be a contributor to the downturn in attendence.

Look at the building boom in Miami, Florida. They were still building more condos right up until the housing bubble broke. Projects are left unfinished. The retail level of any business lags behind other economic factors. Businesses are built from the ground up, but usually crumble from the top down. My point about expansion at Alabama was that their vision is built upon data that may no longer be relevant. All pre 2008 data has to now be suspect for forming longrange projections in any field of endeavor. The seismic economic rift that happened then is still being measured in global terms.

I just know from personal experience that the quicker you respond to cultural shifts the healthier you are on the other side of them. The present malaise may not pass until the baby boomers are gone in 20 years or so. The new paradigm for America is a succeeding generation that will earn less than the preceeding one and yet pay more in taxes than their parents and grandparents did. It is a novel situation for our country and until the votes of the Boomers are diminished politicians will be reticent to act on any measures required to get the debt under control.

My hope is that large building projects be put on hold, or modified, until the full scope of change can be ascertained. Then our institutions will save money, and the interest compounded on it. JR

I take it you've never seen a real estate bust before? Ask anyone from Texas about the mid-80s there.

There may be a college sports TV$ bubble, but real estate will recover.

I've been around a long time and remember the Houston and Dallas bust quite well. The difference this time is the purchasing power of generations x, y, and whatever they are calling the next one. It's extremely poor as a whole. Land will always recover, it just might not be purchased by American citizens.

With the bailout came the largest corporate land grab in U.S. history. The family farms purchased in the last two decades have not come back on the market. Timber reserves have been purchased by corporate blocks as well. The hunting industry has been hampered even here in Alabama by the lack of available land for lease. Corporations generally don't lease because of liability.

No, I'd say your optimism is not well founded in this case. The bubbles were created and then burst in much the same fashion they were in Europe in the 1600's and 1700's. Check your history on the causes of the great depression of '29 and the subsequent years here. That's why Jefferson spoke about banking regulations and checks upon the power of private investors for the benefit of the new nation. Each boom wealth is purchased on margin by the hopeful middle class, each bust the wealthy consolidate ownership becuase things are at their cheapest. Only now the wealthy are no longer people and families as much as they are entities.

Tax on land is how this cycle is always broken. It's just hard to tax corporations. It will be different from here forward. And please don't confuse me for a socialist. I am a fiscal conservative and believe in the free market. It's just not a free market if some are "too big to fail." There's another name for that which was also popular in the 30's. JR