(10-05-2011 01:50 PM)UM2001GRAD Wrote:  Romney is the GOP's guy. I would prefer Huntsman, but that's not going to happen. I'm voting for Romney in the primaries.

No one gives a fuk who you'd vote for in the Republican primary.

(10-05-2011 02:29 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  As the spectre of Obama getting crushed in a Reagan-Carter-type landslide becomes more visible to a lot of people, alot of Democrats and non-partisan leftists will be tempted to hedge their bet and try to engineer the nomination of the most "tolerable" Republican. Which, from their point-of-view, is probably Romney.

...or the one they think we'll lose to Obama, like McCain.

(10-24-2011 01:14 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(10-05-2011 02:31 PM)Rebel Wrote:  

(10-05-2011 02:29 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  As the spectre of Obama getting crushed in a Reagan-Carter-type landslide becomes more visible to a lot of people, alot of Democrats and non-partisan leftists will be tempted to hedge their bet and try to engineer the nomination of the most "tolerable" Republican. Which, from their point-of-view, is probably Romney.

...or the one they think we'll lose to Obama, like McCain.

The problem with that (from a Democrat-point-of-view) us that we may be entering a realm where Obama cannot beat any of the Republicans with a legitimate chance to be nominated.

If Romney is the GOPer nominee, then the President has about a 50/50 shot of being re-elected. He will beat any other GOPer.

GOOD RIDDANCE!

Nobody is going to miss Ben Nelson.

(12-27-2011 02:36 PM)UM2001GRAD Wrote:  Nobody is going to miss Ben Nelson.

Harry Reid will when he loses his post as Majority Leader.

(12-27-2011 02:32 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  GOOD RIDDANCE!

...and STAY OUT

(12-27-2011 05:32 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  It's now definite with Nelson. He has publicly stated he is moving on.
It would be quite a shock if the GOP does not pick this seat up at the next election.

I hadn't thought too much about the 2012 elections lately, but Nelson's retirement has caused me to go back and look at the list of who's running and who's not. Basically, the Senate of 2013 is pretty much guaranteed to have 47 Republicans and 42 Democrats, with 11 seats (as of now) being seriously contested by both sides. Some of those 11 may eventually be conceded by one side or the other before Election Day, but for now both parties apparently intend to spend good money on them. Those 11 are:

Florida
Hawaii*
Massachusetts
Michigan
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
New Mexico*
Ohio
Virginia*
Wisconsin*

* = no incumbent running

Should be an interesting year...

Id give the dems 4 automatics of that group and the REPS go 4-3 out of the rest. 51-49.

It's all pretty much irrelevant now that it requires 60 votes to get anything at all done.

Hutchison has been a Senator from Texas since 1993 when she won a special election to replace Lloyd Bentsen. She won that '93 race by 67%-33% against a Democrat who had been appointed and was seeking to win in his own right. "KBH" has voted mostly (not always) conservative, but has never really championed conservative causes or shown any leadership on national issues, and a lot of Republicans are glad to see her go.

The two leading candidates are both Republicans and the winner of the GOP primary will almost definitely win the November election. They are: Ted Cruz, former law clerk to Chief Justice Rehnquist and former Solicitor General for the State of Texas. He is 41, grew up mainly in Houston, and is the son of Cuban immigrants. David Dewhurst, 66, is the Texas Lieutenant Governor and was on the Lands Commission before that. He has been in the elite of Texas-GOP politics for a long time. He is also from Houston, played basketball at U. of Arizona, worked for the CIA and the State Department, and is a very, very rich man from the energy business.

It is interesting to compare their fundraising so-far: Cruz reports donations from 12,450~ people, at an average of $319 per donation. Dewhurst reports donations from 823 people at an average of $2,286 per. Both campaigns seem very well-financed and -organized.

Primary day is tentatively scheduled for April 3rd but will probably be postponed due to the various redistricting lawsuits. Interesting race shaping up.

(01-24-2012 11:05 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  Hutchison has been a Senator from Texas since 1993 when she won a special election to replace Lloyd Bentsen. She won that '93 race by 67%-33% against a Democrat who had been appointed and was seeking to win in his own right. "KBH" has voted mostly (not always) conservative, but has never really championed conservative causes or shown any leadership on national issues, and a lot of Republicans are glad to see her go.

The two leading candidates are both Republicans and the winner of the GOP primary will almost definitely win the November election. They are: Ted Cruz, former law clerk to Chief Justice Rehnquist and former Solicitor General for the State of Texas. He is 41, grew up mainly in Houston, and is the son of Cuban immigrants. David Dewhurst, 66, is the Texas Lieutenant Governor and was on the Lands Commission before that. He has been in the elite of Texas-GOP politics for a long time. He is also from Houston, played basketball at U. of Arizona, worked for the CIA and the State Department, and is a very, very rich man from the energy business.

It is interesting to compare their fundraising so-far: Cruz reports donations from 12,450~ people, at an average of $319 per donation. Dewhurst reports donations from 823 people at an average of $2,286 per. Both campaigns seem very well-financed and -organized.

Primary day is tentatively scheduled for April 3rd but will probably be postponed due to the various redistricting lawsuits. Interesting race shaping up.

Yea, the only chance the Dems had to win in November went away when General Ricardo Sanchez decided to stay out of the race.

BTW, your numbers on Dewhurst are only for the 4Q of 2011. He currently has $6.1 million on hand. I don't know about Cruz bank roll but I would assume it would be close to even or possibly smaller than Dewhursts overall. It was a good few weeks for Dewhurst as he got Huckabee's endorsement on the 10th.

(01-25-2012 12:13 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Yea, the only chance the Dems had to win in November went away when General Ricardo Sanchez decided to stay out of the race.

Who can say how that race might have developed, but based on the early innings, it didn't really seem like Sanchez had the political skill to make it very close, never mind actually winning.

At any rate, it's horrible about his house burning down. I can't help but wonder if there is more to that story than meets the eye, but who knows.

(01-25-2012 12:19 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(01-25-2012 12:13 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Yea, the only chance the Dems had to win in November went away when General Ricardo Sanchez decided to stay out of the race.

Who can say how that race might have developed, but based on the early innings, it didn't really seem like Sanchez had the political skill to make it very close, never mind actually winning.

At any rate, it's horrible about his house burning down. I can't help but wonder if there is more to that story than meets the eye, but who knows.

Oh, I dont think Sanchez wouldve won, just that he was the Dems only shot. You know, I normally would agree with you about his house, but with as many houses as I've seen burn down this year it didnt strike me as strange. Hell, I had wildfires one mile away from where I live back in August.

It's going to be fun watching Dewhurst getting whacked in the Republican Primary by Cruz

All reasonable people must be purged from the GOP

(01-25-2012 07:11 AM)Mr. Peanut Wrote:  All reasonable people must be purged from the GOP

Like has been completed in the Dem party

(01-25-2012 03:40 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  It's going to be fun watching Dewhurst getting whacked in the Republican Primary by Cruz

Cruz better get going then because Dewhurst is killing him in the polls.

(01-25-2012 11:21 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(01-25-2012 03:40 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  It's going to be fun watching Dewhurst getting whacked in the Republican Primary by Cruz

Cruz better get going then because Dewhurst is killing him in the polls.

I would never put my knowledge of Texas politics ahead of aTxTIGER's, but I am only aware of 1 survey (by PPP) on that race in the last 4 months. It found Dewhurst with 36, Cruz 18, 2 other candidates with 11, and 35 undecided. Just going by those #s, I think the race is still very much up in the air. If anything, 36 seems a bit weak for a candidate who has run and won statewide several times before. You have to figure Dewhurst's name-ID among Texas Republican primary voters is close to 100, yet 64 are not declaring support for him so far...

(01-25-2012 12:25 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(01-25-2012 11:21 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(01-25-2012 03:40 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  It's going to be fun watching Dewhurst getting whacked in the Republican Primary by Cruz

Cruz better get going then because Dewhurst is killing him in the polls.

I would never put my knowledge of Texas politics ahead of aTxTIGER's, but I am only aware of 1 survey (by PPP) on that race in the last 4 months. It found Dewhurst with 36, Cruz 18, 2 other candidates with 11, and 35 undecided. Just going by those #s, I think the race is still very much up in the air. If anything, 36 seems a bit weak for a candidate who has run and won statewide several times before. You have to figure Dewhurst's name-ID among Texas Republican primary voters is close to 100, yet 64 are not declaring support for him so far...

If you look at that PPP poll, Dewhurst's name ID is 61% among Texas GOP voters. His favorables are 41/19. Pretty damn good. Cruz has almost no name ID(half of Dewhursts) however his unfavorables(14%) are very close to Dewhursts. Cruz needs to get going.

(01-25-2012 12:32 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  If you look at that PPP poll, Dewhurst's name ID is 61% among Texas GOP voters.

Given Dewhurst's political history of the past 15 years or so, I have got to believe PPP got a bad sample there.