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Cruz defeats Dewhurst for Senate nomination in Texas
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aTxTIGER Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Campaign to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in US Senate
(01-25-2012 12:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(01-25-2012 12:32 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  If you look at that PPP poll, Dewhurst's name ID is 61% among Texas GOP voters.
Given Dewhurst's political history of the past 15 years or so, I have got to believe PPP got a bad sample there.

Maybe
01-25-2012 01:04 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #102
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx
01-30-2012 03:10 PM
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RaiderATO Offline
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Post: #103
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(01-30-2012 03:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx

AKA the states Obama mentioned in his SOTU campaign speech.
01-30-2012 04:29 PM
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aTxTIGER Offline
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Post: #104
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(01-30-2012 03:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx

Arizona polling has been consistent showing an Obama-Romney matchup between 3-7%. That is closer than many of the states you posted above.
01-30-2012 07:20 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #105
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
Gallup selected the states. I don't know what criteria they used to identify "swing" states as opposed to "safe"/"leaning"...

I predict that AZ will be about 8 points to the "right" of the country as a whole. In other words, if nationwide is 50/50, then Romney wins AZ 54-46, etc.

(Yes, I am taking for granted that Romney will be the GOP nominee)
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2012 08:05 PM by Native Georgian.)
01-30-2012 08:02 PM
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aTxTIGER Offline
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Post: #106
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
I too think Romney would win Arizona comfortably, but if Gallup is including Wisconsin which is consistently polling Obama +8 to +10 against Romney then you have to include Arizona.
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2012 08:18 PM by aTxTIGER.)
01-30-2012 08:17 PM
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boss man Offline
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Post: #107
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(01-30-2012 03:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx

Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well.

What's the trend that has been true since like 1980 - whichever candidate picks up two from the trio of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida wins the election? I think those are the KEY swing states.
01-30-2012 08:59 PM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #108
TX Senate: Dewhurst and Cruz in run-off
(01-25-2012 12:32 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  
(01-25-2012 12:25 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(01-25-2012 11:21 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  
(01-25-2012 03:40 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  It's going to be fun watching Dewhurst getting whacked in the Republican Primary by Cruz
Cruz better get going then because Dewhurst is killing him in the polls.
I would never put my knowledge of Texas politics ahead of aTxTIGER's, but I am only aware of 1 survey (by PPP) on that race in the last 4 months. It found Dewhurst with 36, Cruz 18, 2 other candidates with 11, and 35 undecided. Just going by those #s, I think the race is still very much up in the air. If anything, 36 seems a bit weak for a candidate who has run and won statewide several times before.

If you look at that PPP poll, Dewhurst's name ID is 61% among Texas GOP voters. His favorables are 41/19. Pretty damn good. Cruz has almost no name ID(half of Dewhursts) however his unfavorables(14%) are very close to Dewhursts. Cruz needs to get going.
Primary results are almost all in:
Dewhurst 44.6%
Cruz 34.3%
~21% scattered among several candidates.

Run-off is July 31. I think both candidates have a legitimate chance.
05-30-2012 06:01 AM
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RobertN Offline
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Post: #109
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(01-30-2012 08:59 PM)boss man Wrote:  
(01-30-2012 03:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx

Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well.

What's the trend that has been true since like 1980 - whichever candidate picks up two from the trio of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida wins the election? I think those are the KEY swing states.
Missouri? 03-lmfao Um, no. West Virginia? MAybe if they think Obama will legalize incest. 05-stirthepot
05-30-2012 10:16 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #110
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(05-30-2012 10:16 AM)RobertN Wrote:  
(01-30-2012 08:59 PM)boss man Wrote:  Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well
Missouri? 03-lmfao Um, no. West Virginia? MAybe if they think Obama will legalize incest. 05-stirthepot
Maybe he will. He already wants to legalize "gay marriage" so why not incest, too
05-30-2012 10:35 AM
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UCF08 Offline
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Post: #111
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(05-30-2012 10:35 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(05-30-2012 10:16 AM)RobertN Wrote:  
(01-30-2012 08:59 PM)boss man Wrote:  Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well
Missouri? 03-lmfao Um, no. West Virginia? MAybe if they think Obama will legalize incest. 05-stirthepot
Maybe he will. He already wants to legalize "gay marriage" so why not incest, too

Well, there was quite a bit of incest in the Bible, so he should have the evangelical vote.
05-30-2012 10:37 AM
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smn1256 Offline
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Post: #112
RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(05-30-2012 10:35 AM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(05-30-2012 10:16 AM)RobertN Wrote:  
(01-30-2012 08:59 PM)boss man Wrote:  Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well
Missouri? 03-lmfao Um, no. West Virginia? MAybe if they think Obama will legalize incest. 05-stirthepot
Maybe he will. He already wants to legalize "gay marriage" so why not incest, too

He'll never approve of gay marriage, it's against sharia law.
05-30-2012 11:51 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #113
Cruz defeats Dewhurst for Senate nomination in Texas
Texas had partisan run-off elections yesterday, and in the GOP contest to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison, Ted Cruz defeated David Dewhurst, 56.8%--43.2%. I had long hoped that Cruz would win the GOP nomination, and I thought he had a legitimate shot at it, too -- as my re-posted comments below indicate -- but I honestly never imagined he could beat Dewhurst by such a decisive margin. At any rate, Cruz must now be considered an overwhelming favorite for the general election in November.


(07-05-2011 01:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  The Senate nomination is not going to be settled right now, but most conservatives and Tea-Party-types seem to be lining up behind Ted Cruz for that slot. If Cruz actually does become the next Senator from Texas, he would be a huge improvement over KBH.

(01-25-2012 12:25 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  
(01-25-2012 11:21 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  
(01-25-2012 03:40 AM)WMD Owl Wrote:  It's going to be fun watching Dewhurst getting whacked in the Republican Primary by Cruz
Cruz better get going then because Dewhurst is killing him in the polls.
I would never put my knowledge of Texas politics ahead of aTxTIGER's, but I am only aware of 1 survey (by PPP) on that race in the last 4 months. It found Dewhurst with 36, Cruz 18, 2 other candidates with 11, and 35 undecided. Just going by those #s, I think the race is still very much up in the air. If anything, 36 seems a bit weak for a candidate who has run and won statewide several times before. You have to figure Dewhurst's name-ID among Texas Republican primary voters is close to 100, yet 64 are not declaring support for him so far...
08-01-2012 08:54 AM
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Native Georgian Offline
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Post: #114
RE: Cruz defeats Dewhurst for Senate nomination in Texas
A friend in Texas mentioned a few other elements on the Cruz victory:

1. Cruz emphasized Sarah Palin's endorsement in many of his ads, and Cruz's win is another plus for her.
2. A lot of other "establishment"-type GOP's in the State Legislature were beaten by "Tea-Party"-type GOP's all around the state. Also the Stockman victory in the Galveston-area congressional seat.
3. If the Texas primary had occurred way back on March 6th like it was originally intended, Dewhurst probably would have won without a run-off, and certainly would have won a run-off in April. So the Democrat-instigated redistricting lawsuits (which postponed the primary and run-off) had the net-effect of replacing a 67-year-old, multi-millionaire establishment-type GOP'er with a 40-year-old rising star who is beloved by the Tea-Party grassroots and will probably become a national leader if he wins in November as most people expect.
(This post was last modified: 08-01-2012 12:36 PM by Native Georgian.)
08-01-2012 09:56 AM
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