aTxTIGER
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RE: Campaign to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in US Senate
(01-25-2012 12:57 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: (01-25-2012 12:32 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote: If you look at that PPP poll, Dewhurst's name ID is 61% among Texas GOP voters.
Given Dewhurst's political history of the past 15 years or so, I have got to believe PPP got a bad sample there.
Maybe
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01-25-2012 01:04 PM |
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Native Georgian
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx
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01-30-2012 03:10 PM |
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RaiderATO
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(01-30-2012 03:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx
AKA the states Obama mentioned in his SOTU campaign speech.
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01-30-2012 04:29 PM |
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aTxTIGER
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(01-30-2012 03:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx
Arizona polling has been consistent showing an Obama-Romney matchup between 3-7%. That is closer than many of the states you posted above.
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01-30-2012 07:20 PM |
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Native Georgian
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
Gallup selected the states. I don't know what criteria they used to identify "swing" states as opposed to "safe"/"leaning"...
I predict that AZ will be about 8 points to the "right" of the country as a whole. In other words, if nationwide is 50/50, then Romney wins AZ 54-46, etc.
(Yes, I am taking for granted that Romney will be the GOP nominee)
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01-30-2012 08:02 PM |
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aTxTIGER
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
I too think Romney would win Arizona comfortably, but if Gallup is including Wisconsin which is consistently polling Obama +8 to +10 against Romney then you have to include Arizona.
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2012 08:18 PM by aTxTIGER.)
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01-30-2012 08:17 PM |
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boss man
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(01-30-2012 03:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx
Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well.
What's the trend that has been true since like 1980 - whichever candidate picks up two from the trio of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida wins the election? I think those are the KEY swing states.
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01-30-2012 08:59 PM |
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Native Georgian
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TX Senate: Dewhurst and Cruz in run-off
(01-25-2012 12:32 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote: (01-25-2012 12:25 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: (01-25-2012 11:21 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote: (01-25-2012 03:40 AM)WMD Owl Wrote: It's going to be fun watching Dewhurst getting whacked in the Republican Primary by Cruz
Cruz better get going then because Dewhurst is killing him in the polls.
I would never put my knowledge of Texas politics ahead of aTxTIGER's, but I am only aware of 1 survey (by PPP) on that race in the last 4 months. It found Dewhurst with 36, Cruz 18, 2 other candidates with 11, and 35 undecided. Just going by those #s, I think the race is still very much up in the air. If anything, 36 seems a bit weak for a candidate who has run and won statewide several times before.
If you look at that PPP poll, Dewhurst's name ID is 61% among Texas GOP voters. His favorables are 41/19. Pretty damn good. Cruz has almost no name ID(half of Dewhursts) however his unfavorables(14%) are very close to Dewhursts. Cruz needs to get going.
Primary results are almost all in:
Dewhurst 44.6%
Cruz 34.3%
~21% scattered among several candidates.
Run-off is July 31. I think both candidates have a legitimate chance.
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05-30-2012 06:01 AM |
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RobertN
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(01-30-2012 08:59 PM)boss man Wrote: (01-30-2012 03:10 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: The "Swing States" are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152240/Romney...rails.aspx
Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well.
What's the trend that has been true since like 1980 - whichever candidate picks up two from the trio of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida wins the election? I think those are the KEY swing states.
Missouri? Um, no. West Virginia? MAybe if they think Obama will legalize incest.
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05-30-2012 10:16 AM |
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Native Georgian
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(05-30-2012 10:16 AM)RobertN Wrote: (01-30-2012 08:59 PM)boss man Wrote: Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well
Missouri? Um, no. West Virginia? MAybe if they think Obama will legalize incest.
Maybe he will. He already wants to legalize "gay marriage" so why not incest, too
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05-30-2012 10:35 AM |
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UCF08
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(05-30-2012 10:35 AM)Native Georgian Wrote: (05-30-2012 10:16 AM)RobertN Wrote: (01-30-2012 08:59 PM)boss man Wrote: Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well
Missouri? Um, no. West Virginia? MAybe if they think Obama will legalize incest.
Maybe he will. He already wants to legalize "gay marriage" so why not incest, too
Well, there was quite a bit of incest in the Bible, so he should have the evangelical vote.
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05-30-2012 10:37 AM |
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smn1256
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RE: "Swing States" poll: Obama 54, Gingrich 40; Obama 50, Paul 43; Romney 48, Obama 47
(05-30-2012 10:35 AM)Native Georgian Wrote: (05-30-2012 10:16 AM)RobertN Wrote: (01-30-2012 08:59 PM)boss man Wrote: Personally I consider Missouri and West Virginia swing states as well
Missouri? Um, no. West Virginia? MAybe if they think Obama will legalize incest.
Maybe he will. He already wants to legalize "gay marriage" so why not incest, too
He'll never approve of gay marriage, it's against sharia law.
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05-30-2012 11:51 AM |
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Native Georgian
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Cruz defeats Dewhurst for Senate nomination in Texas
Texas had partisan run-off elections yesterday, and in the GOP contest to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison, Ted Cruz defeated David Dewhurst, 56.8%--43.2%. I had long hoped that Cruz would win the GOP nomination, and I thought he had a legitimate shot at it, too -- as my re-posted comments below indicate -- but I honestly never imagined he could beat Dewhurst by such a decisive margin. At any rate, Cruz must now be considered an overwhelming favorite for the general election in November.
(07-05-2011 01:34 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: The Senate nomination is not going to be settled right now, but most conservatives and Tea-Party-types seem to be lining up behind Ted Cruz for that slot. If Cruz actually does become the next Senator from Texas, he would be a huge improvement over KBH.
(01-25-2012 12:25 PM)Native Georgian Wrote: (01-25-2012 11:21 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote: (01-25-2012 03:40 AM)WMD Owl Wrote: It's going to be fun watching Dewhurst getting whacked in the Republican Primary by Cruz
Cruz better get going then because Dewhurst is killing him in the polls.
I would never put my knowledge of Texas politics ahead of aTxTIGER's, but I am only aware of 1 survey (by PPP) on that race in the last 4 months. It found Dewhurst with 36, Cruz 18, 2 other candidates with 11, and 35 undecided. Just going by those #s, I think the race is still very much up in the air. If anything, 36 seems a bit weak for a candidate who has run and won statewide several times before. You have to figure Dewhurst's name-ID among Texas Republican primary voters is close to 100, yet 64 are not declaring support for him so far...
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08-01-2012 08:54 AM |
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Native Georgian
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RE: Cruz defeats Dewhurst for Senate nomination in Texas
A friend in Texas mentioned a few other elements on the Cruz victory:
1. Cruz emphasized Sarah Palin's endorsement in many of his ads, and Cruz's win is another plus for her.
2. A lot of other "establishment"-type GOP's in the State Legislature were beaten by "Tea-Party"-type GOP's all around the state. Also the Stockman victory in the Galveston-area congressional seat.
3. If the Texas primary had occurred way back on March 6th like it was originally intended, Dewhurst probably would have won without a run-off, and certainly would have won a run-off in April. So the Democrat-instigated redistricting lawsuits (which postponed the primary and run-off) had the net-effect of replacing a 67-year-old, multi-millionaire establishment-type GOP'er with a 40-year-old rising star who is beloved by the Tea-Party grassroots and will probably become a national leader if he wins in November as most people expect.
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08-01-2012 09:56 AM |
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