Quote:It’s hard not to wonder. We’ve seen the polls inflate Democrats’ chances many times, but we’ve never seen Democratic candidates doing this well in red states during the Trump era. Recent polls have shown them leading in enough states to take the Senate.

Let’s state it plainly: It is absolutely possible that the polls could be overestimating Democrats. Polls are inherently imprecise, subject to many sources of error, and they could be wrong in much the same way they’ve been before. ...

Of course, the polls still aren’t perfect, even in midterms. There are many other factors that determine the accuracy of polls in a given election. Importantly, these factors are not consistent from race to race, pollster to pollster or year to year. In one state, undecided voters might break toward Democrats; in another, Republicans. Or one year, a pollster’s likely voter model or its techniques for “weighting” — a statistical adjustment in which pollsters give more weight to underrepresented groups — might tend to overestimate one side or another.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/19/upsho...enate.html

CYA

I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

(10-21-2026 12:56 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

trump killed the ayatollah ...
our arch nemesis for over 4 decades ...
destroyed their nuclear capability ...
a persistent problem vexing previous administrations ...
rogue regime's war machine ...
shell of its former self ...
in 38 days ...
one fell swoop ...
winning apprehension ...
dumbassery ...

THREAD HIJACKING

(10-21-2026 12:56 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

Noted and bookmarked.

Democrats have a record over the past 10 years that they are incapable of doing anything positive for the lives of Americans. They benefit foreigners and recent immigrants good at the cost of Americans. Fuel prices are on their way down, and we will be told there is an oversupply of oil in the US and not enough places to refine it in coming months that will lower oil prices. The "war" in Iran has been over for over a month. What is happening in the ME is the same pshit that has been going on during the past 5 years. It was called the "Arab Spring" for THREE YEARS during the Obama Administration and was talked away by the Media. Oil prices were higher then without adjusting for inflation, than it is now.

(10-21-2026 01:11 PM)green Wrote:  

(10-21-2026 12:56 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

trump killed the ayatollah ...
our arch nemesis for over 4 decades ...
destroyed their nuclear capability ...
a persistent problem vexing previous administrations ...
rogue regime's war machine ...
shell of its former self ...
in 38 days ...
one fell swoop ...
winning apprehension ...
dumbassery ...

THREAD HIJACKING

Wow, you swallow the Trump load like it is ice cream.

(10-21-2026 12:56 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

Like he screwed up the trucking industry last year?

(10-21-2026 03:35 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(10-21-2026 12:56 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

Like he screwed up the trucking industry last year?

What does that have to do with the Iran war? Interesting attempt at diversion but has nothing to do with the price of rice in China. Outside of a few nutcases, everyone else can freely admit Trump completely misjudged and mishandled Iran. Out of his own mouth time and time again "over in 6 to 8 weeks". Of course he misjudged and grossly mishandled it and the approval ratings reflect it.

(10-21-2026 12:56 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

Historically, the party NOT in power has won the midterm elections, so the same happening this time wouldn't be any great surprise. Of course, the Dems, if they prevail, will spin it as some profound referendum on Trump. Their constituents will be dumb enough to believe the spin.

(10-22-2026 08:26 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Historically, the party NOT in power has won the midterm elections, so the same happening this time wouldn't be any great surprise. Of course, the Dems, if they prevail, will spin it as some profound referendum on Trump. Their constituents will be dumb enough to believe the spin.

Well people see higher prices at the pump and grocery store. It can be hard to ignore that for the greater good of seeing Iran's nuclear program eliminated. And the media has constantly drummed in that message. Trump's message has been drowned out. Trump's inability to stay on point has contributed to that.

The Senate could go either way. Republicans could pick up seats or find themselves in the minority. I think they probably hold the Senate. House will be tough.

Seeing the Texas and Georgia ads, it seems like the Democrats view this as a turnout election. They are not trying to persuade the middle for the most part. They are throwing red meat to their partisans and running against Trump. They have one ad in Georgia attacking Rick Jackson saying, "He owns an oil refinery in Texas!!! He profits while we suffer!!!" I mean, they must really think their voters are incredibly stupid to use that in a Governor's ad.

(10-22-2026 10:18 AM)bullet Wrote:  Seeing the Texas and Georgia ads, it seems like the Democrats view this as a turnout election. They are not trying to persuade the middle for the most part. They are throwing red meat to their partisans and running against Trump. They have one ad in Georgia attacking Rick Jackson saying, "He owns an oil refinery in Texas!!! He profits while we suffer!!!" I mean, they must really think their voters are incredibly stupid to use that in a Governor's ad.

Well, the bolded part is the strategy that works for them.

(10-21-2026 02:51 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Democrats have a record over the past 10 years that they are incapable of doing anything positive for the lives of Americans. They benefit foreigners and recent immigrants good at the cost of Americans. Fuel prices are on their way down, and we will be told there is an oversupply of oil in the US and not enough places to refine it in coming months that will lower oil prices. The "war" in Iran has been over for over a month. What is happening in the ME is the same pshit that has been going on during the past 5 years. It was called the "Arab Spring" for THREE YEARS during the Obama Administration and was talked away by the Media. Oil prices were higher then without adjusting for inflation, than it is now.

Gas was $3.96 a gallon yesterday. That's way better than when Ol Foggy was president. I have confidence that they'll get lower soon.

(10-22-2026 10:59 AM)olliebaba Wrote:  

(10-21-2026 02:51 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Democrats have a record over the past 10 years that they are incapable of doing anything positive for the lives of Americans. They benefit foreigners and recent immigrants good at the cost of Americans. Fuel prices are on their way down, and we will be told there is an oversupply of oil in the US and not enough places to refine it in coming months that will lower oil prices. The "war" in Iran has been over for over a month. What is happening in the ME is the same pshit that has been going on during the past 5 years. It was called the "Arab Spring" for THREE YEARS during the Obama Administration and was talked away by the Media. Oil prices were higher then without adjusting for inflation, than it is now.

Gas was $3.96 a gallon yesterday. That's way better than when Ol Foggy was president. I have confidence that they'll get lower soon.

I got gas on Tuesday for $3.55/gal. Gas prices aren't "high" here. They are elevated. Now, those little guys that drive around the oversized pickups that run on diesel are probably having to do without right about now.

(10-22-2026 10:16 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(10-22-2026 08:26 AM)VA49er Wrote:  Historically, the party NOT in power has won the midterm elections, so the same happening this time wouldn't be any great surprise. Of course, the Dems, if they prevail, will spin it as some profound referendum on Trump. Their constituents will be dumb enough to believe the spin.

Well people see higher prices at the pump and grocery store. It can be hard to ignore that for the greater good of seeing Iran's nuclear program eliminated. And the media has constantly drummed in that message. Trump's message has been drowned out. Trump's inability to stay on point has contributed to that.

The Senate could go either way. Republicans could pick up seats or find themselves in the minority. I think they probably hold the Senate. House will be tough.

Yep, exactly what I said more bluntly. Iran overshadows everything else Trump has done or is doing and people get sick of the ruling party and go the opposite way in mid-terms.

Quote: @MarioNawfalMario Nawfal

Many Americans do NOT trust political polling, and it's hard to blame them after stories like this...

Wedgewood Polls, cited frequently by the New York Times and other mainstream outlets, just ADMITTED to FAKING THEIR DATA.

They put out the statement after an investigation by FiftyPlusOne had them dead to rights...

So who did their polls favor, inaccurately??

Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)-backed candidates, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine.

In Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed is running, Dem challenger Mallory McMorrow cited the poll as specifically damaging her campaign, because it showed her losing badly to the GOP compared to him.

The bogus polling firm also showed Francesca Hong winning in Wisconsin, when in reality she ended up losing her primary by about 4,000 votes.

The NYT included every Wedgewood poll on its polling page going back to at least June...

Wedgewood is the THIRD polling firm this year to be exposed for fabricating data!!!!

{IMAGE}

Source: FiftyPlusOne, NYT / Writer: Michael

7:25 AM · Oct 21, 2026


D Law@DLaw55056286

Fake News, Fake Data, how appropriate for the @nytimes

Quote:The Job Of The
Mainstream Media Today
Is To Make You Think
That The Views Of 10% Of
The Country Are
Actually the Views Of
80% Of The Country.

Ever Earnest Mann@ever_e_mann

This is not very surprising.

Nobody believes that the same media organizations publishing Fake News and propaganda are using legitimate polling methods.

It’s simply part of their process.


ScrollofTruth@ScrollofTruthIF

Quote:The polls are just
being used as another
tool of voter
suppression. The polls are
an attempt to not reflect
public opinion, but to
shape it.

I have never really given much credit to polls.

Polls are always reported in total absolutes when, in reality, it is a survey of a fraction of a fraction of "all people" that are claimed to be as "all people". "65% of Americans believe......". That is disingenuous at best.

Not much different that "calling" or "projecting" a winner after only 1% of the votes have been reported and counting.... I have always believed that to be used as a way to push a direction. If I live in California and I am on my way to vote only to see that my vote "is" a waste of time now... why bother since they are already projecting a winner.

Nothing should be "called" until ALL Polls are closed.

(10-21-2026 03:13 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(10-21-2026 01:11 PM)green Wrote:  

(10-21-2026 12:56 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

trump killed the ayatollah ...
our arch nemesis for over 4 decades ...
destroyed their nuclear capability ...
a persistent problem vexing previous administrations ...
rogue regime's war machine ...
shell of its former self ...
in 38 days ...
one fell swoop ...
winning apprehension ...
dumbassery ...

THREAD HIJACKING

Wow, you swallow the Trump load like it is ice cream.

Or, you have a demonstrated irrational hatred of authority figures like police officers and Trump and are merely projecting what you hope happens.

(10-25-2026 09:13 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(10-21-2026 03:13 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(10-21-2026 01:11 PM)green Wrote:  

(10-21-2026 12:56 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  I will go on record now saying I think dems are going to win overall. Trump has screwed up Iran way too bad and people always get sick of the "ruling" party.

trump killed the ayatollah ...
our arch nemesis for over 4 decades ...
destroyed their nuclear capability ...
a persistent problem vexing previous administrations ...
rogue regime's war machine ...
shell of its former self ...
in 38 days ...
one fell swoop ...
winning apprehension ...
dumbassery ...

THREAD HIJACKING

Wow, you swallow the Trump load like it is ice cream.

Or, you have a demonstrated irrational hatred of authority figures like police officers and Trump and are merely projecting what you hope happens.

Irrational? Tell you what, the day I ever come across a good politician or a good cop, I will let you know. Dont hold your breath though, only the most disgusting humans want to be politicians or cops, so there is no such thing as "good" in those fields.