Quote:President Donald Trump’s blockade of Iran could be poised to deliver a staggering blow to the Iranian economy, including the cash flows needed by the regime to pay the host of soldiers and thugs it requires to stay in power.

The blockade officially began at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time on Monday. The U.S. military did not issue a formal public statement that the deadline had passed, although the timing of the blockade was made clear by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) in a statement on Sunday.

“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” the statement said.

“CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports,” the statement added.

CENTCOM advised all ships in the region to “monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.”

President Donald Trump previously warned that the U.S. Navy would also “seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran,” but this warning did not appear in the CENTCOM statement. The blockade would obviously become a much larger and more delicate operation if the U.S. Navy sought to intercept every international vessel that paid ransom to Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) on Monday issued an alert to mariners that access to Iran’s ports and oil terminals was now restricted for ships under every flag, across the whole of Iran’s coastline, “including locations along the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.”

The blockade would therefore explicitly include Jask, an alternative oil terminal constructed by Iran on the Gulf of Oman coast to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s major oil nexus, Kharg Island. Despite heavy investments from the regime in Tehran, Jask has never been able to handle more than a tiny fraction of Iran’s oil exports.

“Transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations is not reported to be impeded by these measures; however, vessels may encounter military presence, directed communications, or right-of-visit procedures during passage,” the bulletin said.

“Right-of-visit procedures” would traditionally involve the U.S. Navy boarding a suspicious vessel to ensure it is not violating the Iran blockade.

UKMTO said that neutral vessels currently docked at Iranian ports “have been granted a limited grace period to depart.”

Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) Senior Fellow Miad Maleki, a strong supporter of President Trump’s military campaign whose family hails from Iran, on Sunday wrote an analysis of the blockade’s likely effect upon Iran’s economy and military readiness.

Maleki found the blockade “would cost Iran approximately $276 million per day in lost exports and disrupt $159 million per day in imports, a combined economic damage of about $435 million per day, or $13 billion per month.”

He observed that Iran has no viable alternative overland or pipeline route to ship its oil and petrochemical products, and only about 10 percent of its non-oil trade can realistically be shipped in ways that would evade the U.S. blockade. Iran’s imports would also be strongly reduced, although he anticipated that “humanitarian cargoes” would be allowed.

Maleki pointed out that Iran’s fuel storage capacity is very limited, and was already filled to about 60 percent capacity, so the regime will have to begin shutting down its oil wells in about 13 days — and those wells will degrade very quickly once they have been shut down due to water seepage.

“Forced shut-ins could permanently destroy 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day of production capacity,” he calculated. “That’s $9 billion to $15 billion per year in revenue, gone forever.”

These losses could be cataclysmic for Iran’s already weak economy. The January uprising that was murderously suppressed by the regime in Tehran was sparked by the collapse of the national currency, the rial, and the blockade is likely to push Iran into “terminal hyperinflation.” Maleki noted that Iran just issued the largest banknote in its history, the 10 million rial note — and it is only worth about $7 in U.S. currency.

“The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” he concluded.

The loss of Iran’s oil and other exports will certainly affect world markets, including likely bumps in gas prices and overall inflation for American consumers, but the impact will probably be less severe for Americans than allowing Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to Persian Gulf oil traffic. Reopening the strait to non-Iranian traffic will also help to clear up a shortage of much-needed fertilizer shipments to farmers across the globe.

“Anything that currently takes more oil off the market will push prices up, which in turn will push gas prices further,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told Al Jazeera News on Monday.

Parsi predicted oil, currently hovering around $100 per barrel, could rise above $150 if the Houthis, Iran’s terrorist proxies in Yemen, repeat their 2024 tactic of attacking ships in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Other doleful analysts told Al Jazeera that international shipping would probably avoid the Strait of Hormuz, even though it has technically been “reopened,” because they fear Iranian piracy, minimizing the benefits of renewed Persian Gulf oil exports.

Another complicating factor for analysts is that the U.S.-Israel-Iran ceasefire technically still has nine days to go, so the full impact of the blockade on both Iran and the world economy may be difficult to assess until the end of April.

South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo noted on Monday that Iran “secured massive war funds in a short period” after the U.S. Treasury Department granted a temporary license for Iran to sell crude oil stocks that have been awaiting shipment for at least 30 days.

The waiver was intended to minimize the global economic damage from the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, and it only released about 140 million barrels of oil into the world market, which was not even enough to cover two days of worldwide demand — but it gave Iran a significant cash infusion, as it sold its oil at premium prices to hungry buyers.

“Considering Iran’s annual defense budget ranges from 8 billion to 10 billion U.S. dollars, the revenue from oil exports during the U.S. sanctions reprieve is estimated at 4 billion to 5 billion U.S. dollars, effectively half of its annual defense spending,” Chosun Ilbo calculated, worrying that Iran may have built enough of a cash cushion from its temporary oil license to continue funding its military and repression apparatus through the first weeks of the U.S. blockade.

Link

(04-15-2026 02:43 PM)CrimsonPhantom Wrote:  

Quote:President Donald Trump’s blockade of Iran could be poised to deliver a staggering blow to the Iranian economy, including the cash flows needed by the regime to pay the host of soldiers and thugs it requires to stay in power.

The blockade officially began at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time on Monday. The U.S. military did not issue a formal public statement that the deadline had passed, although the timing of the blockade was made clear by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) in a statement on Sunday.

“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” the statement said.

“CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports,” the statement added.

CENTCOM advised all ships in the region to “monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.”

President Donald Trump previously warned that the U.S. Navy would also “seek and interdict every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran,” but this warning did not appear in the CENTCOM statement. The blockade would obviously become a much larger and more delicate operation if the U.S. Navy sought to intercept every international vessel that paid ransom to Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) on Monday issued an alert to mariners that access to Iran’s ports and oil terminals was now restricted for ships under every flag, across the whole of Iran’s coastline, “including locations along the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz.”

The blockade would therefore explicitly include Jask, an alternative oil terminal constructed by Iran on the Gulf of Oman coast to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s major oil nexus, Kharg Island. Despite heavy investments from the regime in Tehran, Jask has never been able to handle more than a tiny fraction of Iran’s oil exports.

“Transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations is not reported to be impeded by these measures; however, vessels may encounter military presence, directed communications, or right-of-visit procedures during passage,” the bulletin said.

“Right-of-visit procedures” would traditionally involve the U.S. Navy boarding a suspicious vessel to ensure it is not violating the Iran blockade.

UKMTO said that neutral vessels currently docked at Iranian ports “have been granted a limited grace period to depart.”

Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) Senior Fellow Miad Maleki, a strong supporter of President Trump’s military campaign whose family hails from Iran, on Sunday wrote an analysis of the blockade’s likely effect upon Iran’s economy and military readiness.

Maleki found the blockade “would cost Iran approximately $276 million per day in lost exports and disrupt $159 million per day in imports, a combined economic damage of about $435 million per day, or $13 billion per month.”

He observed that Iran has no viable alternative overland or pipeline route to ship its oil and petrochemical products, and only about 10 percent of its non-oil trade can realistically be shipped in ways that would evade the U.S. blockade. Iran’s imports would also be strongly reduced, although he anticipated that “humanitarian cargoes” would be allowed.

Maleki pointed out that Iran’s fuel storage capacity is very limited, and was already filled to about 60 percent capacity, so the regime will have to begin shutting down its oil wells in about 13 days — and those wells will degrade very quickly once they have been shut down due to water seepage.

“Forced shut-ins could permanently destroy 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day of production capacity,” he calculated. “That’s $9 billion to $15 billion per year in revenue, gone forever.”

These losses could be cataclysmic for Iran’s already weak economy. The January uprising that was murderously suppressed by the regime in Tehran was sparked by the collapse of the national currency, the rial, and the blockade is likely to push Iran into “terminal hyperinflation.” Maleki noted that Iran just issued the largest banknote in its history, the 10 million rial note — and it is only worth about $7 in U.S. currency.

“The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible,” he concluded.

The loss of Iran’s oil and other exports will certainly affect world markets, including likely bumps in gas prices and overall inflation for American consumers, but the impact will probably be less severe for Americans than allowing Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to Persian Gulf oil traffic. Reopening the strait to non-Iranian traffic will also help to clear up a shortage of much-needed fertilizer shipments to farmers across the globe.

“Anything that currently takes more oil off the market will push prices up, which in turn will push gas prices further,” Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told Al Jazeera News on Monday.

Parsi predicted oil, currently hovering around $100 per barrel, could rise above $150 if the Houthis, Iran’s terrorist proxies in Yemen, repeat their 2024 tactic of attacking ships in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Other doleful analysts told Al Jazeera that international shipping would probably avoid the Strait of Hormuz, even though it has technically been “reopened,” because they fear Iranian piracy, minimizing the benefits of renewed Persian Gulf oil exports.

Another complicating factor for analysts is that the U.S.-Israel-Iran ceasefire technically still has nine days to go, so the full impact of the blockade on both Iran and the world economy may be difficult to assess until the end of April.

South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo noted on Monday that Iran “secured massive war funds in a short period” after the U.S. Treasury Department granted a temporary license for Iran to sell crude oil stocks that have been awaiting shipment for at least 30 days.

The waiver was intended to minimize the global economic damage from the Strait of Hormuz shutdown, and it only released about 140 million barrels of oil into the world market, which was not even enough to cover two days of worldwide demand — but it gave Iran a significant cash infusion, as it sold its oil at premium prices to hungry buyers.

“Considering Iran’s annual defense budget ranges from 8 billion to 10 billion U.S. dollars, the revenue from oil exports during the U.S. sanctions reprieve is estimated at 4 billion to 5 billion U.S. dollars, effectively half of its annual defense spending,” Chosun Ilbo calculated, worrying that Iran may have built enough of a cash cushion from its temporary oil license to continue funding its military and repression apparatus through the first weeks of the U.S. blockade.

Link

Thats the issue almost nobody is talking about. The US can destroy a large portion of Iran's economic oil infrastructure without firing a shot. Iran is on the clock. As Ive said multiple times----the people running around saying "Iran has the strategic upper hand and has time on its side" could NOT be more wrong. The clock is running out on Iran as it has less than 2 weeks before oil storage runs out and long term (perhaps permanent) damage to their oil infrastructure begins to accrue when they are forced to shutdown well heads.

but but but, remember, #groverII didn't have a strategy going into this engagement ... where's tanq-0'fer-rang when ya need him...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran...ess-weapon

Quote:For Iran, Hormuz Is More a Weakness Than a Weapon
How a U.S. Blockade Threatens the Regime’s Grip

On Monday, six weeks into its war with Iran, the United States imposed a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to conventional wisdom, the war has made Tehran realize that its control of the strait constitutes powerful leverage. In this story line, the strait turned out to be Iran’s real nuclear weapon, its potent deterrent. Because Tehran could use this chokepoint to threaten global shipping, it was able to resist pressure from the world’s most powerful air force, reject Washington’s peace demands, and ultimately gain leverage over its nemesis. Iranian leaders have repeatedly touted that leverage, while analyses in Reuters, Time, and other outlets have declared the strait a formidable tool in Iran’s arsenal.

But this narrative is wrong. More than any other country on earth, Iran cannot survive a sustained closure of the strait. Before the outbreak of war in late February, 20 percent of the world’s commercial shipping may have transited the Strait of Hormuz, but over 90 percent of Iran’s seaborne trade traversed this 21-mile-wide chokepoint. Even before the U.S. naval blockade, Iran was struggling severely to move shipments vital to its own economy through the passage. A blockade will inhibit Iranian exports of all kinds—oil being the most important, but also petrochemicals—as well as imports of much of the country’s grain.

Within weeks of a blockade, the country could run out of food, as well as space to store unshipped oil, requiring it to decrease or stop production at major oil wells—an act that can damage such infrastructure permanently. By closing the strait, Iran has not established a new, meaningful source of long-term clout. Instead, it has indicated how militaries can decimate the Iranian economy and thus really exert power over the Islamic Republic.

SELF RESTRAINT
Framing the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s trump card—a chokepoint with which Tehran can menace the world economy—gets it backward. The regime’s March closure of the strait had already severed both sides of its economic lifeline. In 2024, according to Central Bank of Iran data and U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates, hydrocarbons represented 65 to 75 percent of Iran’s total export revenue. Virtually all of these exports (approximately 92 percent to 96 percent) must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, loaded almost entirely from a single terminal at Kharg Island.

Unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which possess substantial pipeline bypass capacity, Iran has no meaningful alternative export corridor. In 2021, Iran officially unveiled the Goreh–Jask pipeline, a route from a key inland pumping station to a terminal on the Gulf of Oman with a nominal capacity of 300,000 barrels per day. In practice, however, the route was sharply constrained by unfinished infrastructure. During the summer of 2024, it loaded fewer than 70,000 barrels per day, and starting in October 2024, the terminal went dormant for roughly 17 months. Only one of three planned offshore mooring buoys is installed, and fewer than half of the 20 planned storage tanks are complete. Iran cannot reroute its way out of a Hormuz closure.

Imports are equally exposed. Iran is the largest importer of bulk grain and oilseed in the Middle East. Approximately 14 million of the 30 million tons of grain imported into Gulf markets annually are destined for Iran—all of it seaborne and all of it dependent on passage through the Strait of Hormuz. When the strait shut, grain deliveries to Iran’s primary port, Bandar Imam Khomeini, all but stopped. Iran scrambled to reroute through Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman, but that port can handle less than a fifth of Bandar Imam Khomeini’s throughput. Pharmaceutical and medical supply chains faced similar disruptions.

Nearly all of Iran’s oil exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
In late March, Bloomberg and other outlets claimed that Iran was earning more than $100 million in extra daily revenue as its closure of the strait blocked rival Gulf exporters. But this assertion rested almost entirely on an accounting trick: emphasizing tanker-loading data rather than confirmed sales or receipts. The widely cited figure of approximately $139 million per day was derived from “lifting data”—a measurement of crude pumped onto ships, not crude delivered and paid for or proceeds accessible to Tehran—at two terminals, Kharg Island and Jask. Loading, delivery, and payment are distinct events in Iran’s sanctions-evasion supply chain, and conflating them produces a figure that is a ceiling, not a floor. Iran has used this playbook before: in 2019 and 2020, unable to find buyers for its oil at scale, Tehran turned its fleet into floating storage to avoid curtailing production. It pursued a similar approach in March, also motivated by the real vulnerability of Kharg Island: moving crude offshore hedges against the risk of further strikes while preserving the optics of sustained output. In early March, the amount of Iranian crude oil stored on the water hit an all-time high of roughly 190 million to 200 million barrels, precisely because loading ramped up while discharges to China’s receiving terminals declined.

Before the war, Iran was selling its crude at roughly $10 per barrel below the international benchmark, the cost of evading sanctions. The discount at which Iran was selling its oil temporarily narrowed, but in reality, the country earns a relatively small share of its sales. Intermediaries, brokers, and front companies extract additional commissions at every stage of Iran’s sanctions-evasion supply chain, eroding the margin on each barrel sold. What profit remains largely accumulates in yuan-denominated accounts in China that sanctions prevent Iran from converting or repatriating.

Before the U.S. blockade, Iran was trying to allow its own imports and exports to pass through the strait. But its ability to do so was limited. Among other difficulties—for example, the fact that sea mines do not distinguish between Iranian- and foreign-flagged vessels—Tehran’s reliance on complicated sanctions-evasion mechanisms means that ships carrying Iranian oil are not Iranian-flagged, making it hard to close the strait selectively. Iranian oil is transferred frequently between ships, and sometimes, captains and relevant authorities in Iran do not even know which tankers bear Iranian hydrocarbons.

FROM BAD TO WORSE
A full blockade will be much more devastating than Iran’s own strait closure was. It will entirely disrupt the distribution of the 1.5 million barrels of oil per day that Iran was previously loading onto tankers, costing the country approximately $276 million per day in lost export revenue and $159 million per day in imports. A blockade chokes off industrial inputs, machinery, and consumer goods.

A blockade also has the potential to damage Iran’s oil infrastructure permanently. The country has 50 million to 55 million barrels’ worth of total onshore oil storage, a capacity that, before the blockade, was already roughly 60 percent full. If the blockade is successful—and the shadow fleet Iran relies on cannot reach terminals, preventing the loading of millions of barrels per day onto tankers—this storage will fill up in a matter of weeks. After that point, Iran must slow the production of its wells. When a mature oil well reduces its production or shuts down, that can impair its infrastructure and chemistry and crimp its future productivity for good. And restarting stopped wells can make water rush in at the bottom, a process known as ‘water coning,’ which causes its own damage. Forced shutdowns could permanently destroy up to 500,000 barrels per day of production capacity, or billions of dollars of revenue every year.

Iran is also unable to supply its own fuel needs. Despite its vast oil reserves, its aging refining infrastructure produces roughly 26 million gallons of gasoline per day. But daily domestic consumption exceeds 30 million gallons—a persistent deficit that Tehran covers by importing approximately $2 billion of gasoline annually, largely by way of maritime barter arrangements routed through the United Arab Emirates. Iran’s selective Hormuz closure already nearly severed this trade: it allowed some import traffic to trickle through and rationing extended domestic fuel reserves, but fuel prices have already surged roughly 40 percent since the recent conflict began. A U.S. naval blockade will eliminate that trickle.

Moreover, Iran lacks strategic fuel reserves. According to pre-blockade estimates, Iran possessed approximately 400 million gallons of gasoline and 340 million gallons of diesel, around 12 days of national consumption and far below the International Energy Agency’s 90-day standard for net imports. After Israeli and U.S. strikes hit petroleum storage facilities, Tehran cut the limit on government-issued fuel ration cards (which cap the amount of subsidized gasoline citizens can purchase at a single visit to a filling station) from 7.0 to 5.3 gallons. The regime that claims to control the world’s most important energy chokepoint cannot keep its own gas stations supplied for two weeks.

OWN GOAL?
Tehran claims to have shown the world that it has tremendous leverage over other economies. But that narrative mistakes tactical posturing for strategic resilience. Crude being pumped onto tankers is not crude being sold. Oil nominally exported is not revenue received. And a chokepoint that Iran threatens to close is, above all, the throat through which Iran breathes.

Some may believe that the Trump administration will flinch first, abandoning its blockade in reaction to rising gas prices before Tehran agrees to its terms. But the regime was already fragile, and the Iranian population had already reached the limit of the economic pain it could tolerate. Shortly before the war began, in January, Iran experienced a round of protests that was so threatening to the regime’s survival that it resorted to killing tens of thousands of its own people to restore relative calm.

The value of the rial on the open market has already cratered, from 817,000 per dollar at the start of 2025 to over 1.5 million per dollar today. Iranian banks have begun limiting citizens’ withdrawals to $18 to $30 per day. In March, the regime issued its largest-ever banknote, a ten-million-rial bill, worth about $7. It knows it cannot endure a further dramatic collapse of the rial, a total absence of fuel, and widespread food shortages. That may be part of why Iran agreed to the highest-level engagement it has pursued with U.S. officials since the Islamic Revolution only weeks after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed the country’s supreme leader. Oil and gas make up around 25 percent of Iran’s GDP and 80 percent of its export earnings; alternative pathways besides the Strait of Hormuz cannot nearly replace the losses. The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible. The Strait of Hormuz will likely prove to be Iran’s Achilles’ heel and undoing, not its secret weapon.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch than the Fake Religious Zealots and the IRGC. Everything happens for a reason.

Trump despite his flaws has proven to be a great leader. Only clowns far left and mentally challenged would think it was a bad thing to disarm their nuclear capabilities to produce weapons of mass destruction.

This short term pain is small compared to the long term damage Iran could and would do.

I do find it odd that those on the left are concerned for the lives of butchers who wouldn’t bat an eye to blow their brains out. Just ask an Iranian protester if you can find one still living. Sad

But, then again it is definitely is a mental disorder.

Fetterman proved me wrong. I think it’s about time a lot of others who lean left start proving me wrong.

When it comes to Trump just remember lefties not everyone who $hits on you is your enemy and not everyone who gets you out of $hit is your friend.

(04-16-2026 07:43 AM)BlueDragon Wrote:  Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch than the Fake Religious Zealots and the IRGC. Everything happens for a reason.

Trump despite his flaws has proven to be a great leader. Only clowns far left and mentally challenged would think it was a bad thing to disarm their nuclear capabilities to produce weapons of mass destruction.

This short term pain is small compared to the long term damage Iran could and would do.

I do find it odd that those on the left are concerned for the lives of butchers who wouldn’t bat an eye to blow their brains out. Just ask an Iranian protester if you can find one still living. Sad

But, then again it is definitely is a mental disorder.

Fetterman proved me wrong. I think it’s about time a lot of others who lean left start proving me wrong.

When it comes to Trump just remember lefties not everyone who $hits on you is your enemy and not everyone who gets you out of $hit is your friend.

Aint that the truth! And I agree with all of the rest of it. The left is largely unhinged at this point.

We’ll be broke before they are.

(04-16-2026 08:38 AM)Todor Wrote:  We’ll be broke before they are.

Especially when we can sell our massive amounts of oil and LNG while NOT ALLOWING them to sell theirs.

Brilliant observation on your part.

I’m sure you majored in Rocket Science at New Mexico State.

I digress, enlighten me on your plan of bankruptcy.

Hard to go bankrupt when you never intend to pay off the debt JMHO

(04-16-2026 08:38 AM)Todor Wrote:  We’ll be broke before they are.

well, ewe are a broken record, so there's that ... how 'bout that broken burro and your back pocket ... they be broke, too ... toss in ewer TDS swabbin' the rooskie knob, and ewe've hit for the Todor broke-dick cycle ...

#chin-chin

(04-16-2026 08:38 AM)Todor Wrote:  We’ll be broke before they are.

The Iranian base currency equivalent of the dollar is called the Rial. It takes over 1.3 million Rials to equal a SINGLE one dollar bill. The reason for the recent wave of protests in Iran a couple of months ago was the near collapsed state of the Iranian economy (and that was BEFORE the war started). Iran is already pretty much broke and functioning at a level that can barely stave off internal revolt.