(12-03-2025 09:41 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-02-2025 03:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-02-2025 02:07 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I think it’s way too early to draw anything conclusive from these ratings. In this world of new infusions of players through the portal, players are still learning each other’s names, much less their tendencies, their strengths, and their weaknesses. Who can they trust to go to in a big spot? How are switches working? Who can they expect a pass back from on a cut?

The point is that teams are still coming together. These are early days in the season. Coaching, player development and team building is still critical and is ongoing.

the problem is once you get to conference play, you're sloshing around the same mediocre ratings. gets really tough to make up ground. Similarly when things are going great for the other confences- gets tough to lose much ground. Really definies the quad wins later in the year.

Except that ratings continue to change. Early season ratings are not set in stone. Wins & losses in conference affect the ratings as well after the fact, so they are fluid.

individual teams sure- but there becomes an absolute limit on things. A lot of the NET is SOS.

That's why I been thinking programs should consider playing some OOC games later in the year in between the conference season.

With the amount of new players, transfers, etc. in a program every single year, most teams are not at their best when they play OOC season in November - December.

And yet, the OOC is what basically decides the conference pecking order / conference bids on a given year.

Yes, individual programs in a conference can play their way in/out of the tourney during conference play - but the amount of bids the conference as a whole will get is mostly decided in NOV-DEC

(12-03-2025 10:58 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-03-2025 09:41 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-02-2025 03:08 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-02-2025 02:07 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  I think it’s way too early to draw anything conclusive from these ratings. In this world of new infusions of players through the portal, players are still learning each other’s names, much less their tendencies, their strengths, and their weaknesses. Who can they trust to go to in a big spot? How are switches working? Who can they expect a pass back from on a cut?

The point is that teams are still coming together. These are early days in the season. Coaching, player development and team building is still critical and is ongoing.

the problem is once you get to conference play, you're sloshing around the same mediocre ratings. gets really tough to make up ground. Similarly when things are going great for the other confences- gets tough to lose much ground. Really definies the quad wins later in the year.

Except that ratings continue to change. Early season ratings are not set in stone. Wins & losses in conference affect the ratings as well after the fact, so they are fluid.

individual teams sure- but there becomes an absolute limit on things. A lot of the NET is SOS.

And as you’ve said, “conferences don’t get teams in - teams get teams in.” So, what happens with individual teams over the course of a season - even within conference - matters by the end of the season.

NET today vs last week 1st release:
UConn 7 vs 8 last week +1
St John's 21 vs 23 last week +2
Villanova 35 vs 64 last week +29
Butler 41 vs 21 last week -20
Seton Hall 43 vs 50 last week +7
Providence 85 vs 127 last week +42
Creighton 108 vs 119 last week +11
Xavier 109 vs 102 last week -7
Georgetown 114 vs 122 last week +8
Marquette 167 vs 167 last week 0
DePaul 198 vs 183 last week -15

Glad to see Nova moving up to where they might be a tourney team. Surprised Seton Hall isn't a little higher. Wish they hadn't gotten jobbed by the refs in that USC game a couple weeks ago.

(12-08-2025 08:42 AM)stever20 Wrote:  NET today vs last week 1st release:
UConn 7 vs 8 last week +1
St John's 21 vs 23 last week +2
Villanova 35 vs 64 last week +29
Butler 41 vs 21 last week -20
Seton Hall 43 vs 50 last week +7
Providence 85 vs 127 last week +42
Creighton 108 vs 119 last week +11
Xavier 109 vs 102 last week -7
Georgetown 114 vs 122 last week +8
Marquette 167 vs 167 last week 0
DePaul 198 vs 183 last week -15

What did Xavier do to deserve to be dropped?

Blew out St. Francis by 22 and beat a good Cincinnati team in a rivalry game by 5.

I don’t get it unless teams they played earlier in the month fared poorly this week.

(12-08-2025 10:00 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 08:42 AM)stever20 Wrote:  NET today vs last week 1st release:
UConn 7 vs 8 last week +1
St John's 21 vs 23 last week +2
Villanova 35 vs 64 last week +29
Butler 41 vs 21 last week -20
Seton Hall 43 vs 50 last week +7
Providence 85 vs 127 last week +42
Creighton 108 vs 119 last week +11
Xavier 109 vs 102 last week -7
Georgetown 114 vs 122 last week +8
Marquette 167 vs 167 last week 0
DePaul 198 vs 183 last week -15

What did Xavier do to deserve to be dropped?

Blew out St. Francis by 22 and beat a good Cincinnati team in a rivalry game by 5.

I don’t get it unless teams they played earlier in the month fared poorly this week.

Santa Clara got blown out by 27 I think some of it. Also Cincy only ranked 134th right now, so a 5 point home win doesn't move the needle much at all.

(12-08-2025 10:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 10:00 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 08:42 AM)stever20 Wrote:  NET today vs last week 1st release:
UConn 7 vs 8 last week +1
St John's 21 vs 23 last week +2
Villanova 35 vs 64 last week +29
Butler 41 vs 21 last week -20
Seton Hall 43 vs 50 last week +7
Providence 85 vs 127 last week +42
Creighton 108 vs 119 last week +11
Xavier 109 vs 102 last week -7
Georgetown 114 vs 122 last week +8
Marquette 167 vs 167 last week 0
DePaul 198 vs 183 last week -15

What did Xavier do to deserve to be dropped?

Blew out St. Francis by 22 and beat a good Cincinnati team in a rivalry game by 5.

I don’t get it unless teams they played earlier in the month fared poorly this week.

Santa Clara got blown out by 27 I think some of it. Also Cincy only ranked 134th right now, so a 5 point home win doesn't move the needle much at all.

Thanks, good points. Cincinnati is better than that. Hopefully the NET will catch up.

Basketball Power Index lists four Big East teams in the top 50.

Of note, the league is a collective 71-30 (not bad at all).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket.../_/group/4

(12-08-2025 11:31 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Basketball Power Index lists four Big East teams in the top 50.

Of note, the league is a collective 71-30 (not bad at all).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket.../_/group/4

And Creighton and Providence are at 52 and 53. May be a sign that they’ll eventually catch up in the NET. Usually a team in the top 50 makes the tournament. By the BOI measure, we now have 6 teams which are at least on the bubble.

(12-08-2025 11:45 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:31 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Basketball Power Index lists four Big East teams in the top 50.

Of note, the league is a collective 71-30 (not bad at all).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket.../_/group/4

And Vreighton and Providence are at 52 and 53. May be a sign that they’ll eventually catch up in the NET. Usually a team in the top 50 makes the tournament. By the BOI measure, we now have 6 teams which are at least on the bubble.

Problem for both of them is already 4 OOC losses. So at best 7-4 OOC. Going to need to win 12 or 13 conference games to have a real shot.

(12-08-2025 11:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:45 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:31 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Basketball Power Index lists four Big East teams in the top 50.

Of note, the league is a collective 71-30 (not bad at all).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket.../_/group/4

And Creighton and Providence are at 52 and 53. May be a sign that they’ll eventually catch up in the NET. Usually a team in the top 50 makes the tournament. By the BPI measure, we now have 6 teams which are at least on the bubble.

Problem for both of them is already 4 OOC losses. So at best 7-4 OOC. Going to need to win 12 or 13 conference games to have a real shot.

I think the bigger problem for Creighton is that they just haven’t been playing well. They need to change some things about their basic fundamentals if they’re going to have hope for any kind of a season.

With a 20 game conference schedule, 12 or 13 wins is certainly achievable. Last year, 5 teams had 13 conference wins and a sixth had 11. It’s a zero sum game, so someone is going to get those wins.

(12-08-2025 12:13 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:45 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:31 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Basketball Power Index lists four Big East teams in the top 50.

Of note, the league is a collective 71-30 (not bad at all).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket.../_/group/4

And Creighton and Providence are at 52 and 53. May be a sign that they’ll eventually catch up in the NET. Usually a team in the top 50 makes the tournament. By the BPI measure, we now have 6 teams which are at least on the bubble.

Problem for both of them is already 4 OOC losses. So at best 7-4 OOC. Going to need to win 12 or 13 conference games to have a real shot.

I think the bigger problem for Creighton is that they just haven’t been playing well. They need to change some things about their basic fundamentals if they’re going to have hope for any kind of a season.

With a 20 game conference schedule, 12 or 13 wins is certainly achievable. Last year, 5 teams had 13 conference wins and a sixth had 11. It’s a zero sum game, so someone is going to get those wins.

Think it's very fair to say the conference has a lot more parity this year. last year 4 teams with 6 or fewer wins. Those 4 teams with only 18 wins- guaranteed to get 12 between the 4 of them. I really don't think that's the case this year.

(12-08-2025 11:45 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:31 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Basketball Power Index lists four Big East teams in the top 50.

Of note, the league is a collective 71-30 (not bad at all).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket.../_/group/4

And Creighton and Providence are at 52 and 53. May be a sign that they’ll eventually catch up in the NET. Usually a team in the top 50 makes the tournament. By the BOI measure, we now have 6 teams which are at least on the bubble.

The way the season has played out to date, it seems the Big East will have a more realistic chance of landing three at-large (four teams total) than four at-large. But there is still some time for the league to change the narrative.

I want Georgetown to make the Big Dance. But I watched the second half of Georgetown vs. North Carolina and the Heels looked vastly superior to the Hoyas. Some might argue GU is without Vince Iwuchukwu. But UNC is missing Seth Trimble (likely the team's top backcourt player).

This season for the Big East is starting to feel like last year. UConn will have a shot at making the Final Four. But beyond the Huskies, I'm not sure there is an Elite Eight type BE team. Maybe I'll be proved wrong.

Arizona is #1 in AP tonight. Without 2 starters, UConn played them to a 4 point loss in a game that could have gone either way. Yes, they do look like a Final Four team.

The season is still young. We’ll have to wait to see if Pitino can work his magic at St. John’s.

(12-08-2025 12:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 12:13 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:45 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:31 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Basketball Power Index lists four Big East teams in the top 50.

Of note, the league is a collective 71-30 (not bad at all).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket.../_/group/4

And Creighton and Providence are at 52 and 53. May be a sign that they’ll eventually catch up in the NET. Usually a team in the top 50 makes the tournament. By the BPI measure, we now have 6 teams which are at least on the bubble.

Problem for both of them is already 4 OOC losses. So at best 7-4 OOC. Going to need to win 12 or 13 conference games to have a real shot.

I think the bigger problem for Creighton is that they just haven’t been playing well. They need to change some things about their basic fundamentals if they’re going to have hope for any kind of a season.

With a 20 game conference schedule, 12 or 13 wins is certainly achievable. Last year, 5 teams had 13 conference wins and a sixth had 11. It’s a zero sum game, so someone is going to get those wins.

Think it's very fair to say the conference has a lot more parity this year. last year 4 teams with 6 or fewer wins. Those 4 teams with only 18 wins- guaranteed to get 12 between the 4 of them. I really don't think that's the case this year.

We’ll find out as the season progresses. It’s still early.

We don’t have a lot of experience with a 20 game schedule due to the Covid years. Even still last year was not an isolated case of 5 teams getting 13 conference wins. Same thing happened 2 years earlier.

(12-08-2025 09:17 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 12:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 12:13 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:45 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  And Creighton and Providence are at 52 and 53. May be a sign that they’ll eventually catch up in the NET. Usually a team in the top 50 makes the tournament. By the BPI measure, we now have 6 teams which are at least on the bubble.

Problem for both of them is already 4 OOC losses. So at best 7-4 OOC. Going to need to win 12 or 13 conference games to have a real shot.

I think the bigger problem for Creighton is that they just haven’t been playing well. They need to change some things about their basic fundamentals if they’re going to have hope for any kind of a season.

With a 20 game conference schedule, 12 or 13 wins is certainly achievable. Last year, 5 teams had 13 conference wins and a sixth had 11. It’s a zero sum game, so someone is going to get those wins.

Think it's very fair to say the conference has a lot more parity this year. last year 4 teams with 6 or fewer wins. Those 4 teams with only 18 wins- guaranteed to get 12 between the 4 of them. I really don't think that's the case this year.

We’ll find out as the season progresses. It’s still early.

We don’t have a lot of experience with a 20 game schedule due to the Covid years. Even still last year was not an isolated case of 5 teams getting 13 conference wins. Same thing happened 2 years earlier.

Even there same thing- bottom 4 teams only with 18 wins. 2 teams that didn't beat anyone but each other. The other 2 teams only with 4 wins each vs the other 8 teams. Just don't see the bottom this year being anywhere near that honestly.

(12-08-2025 08:42 AM)stever20 Wrote:  NET today vs last week 1st release:
UConn 7 vs 8 last week +1
St John's 21 vs 23 last week +2
Villanova 35 vs 64 last week +29
Butler 41 vs 21 last week -20
Seton Hall 43 vs 50 last week +7
Providence 85 vs 127 last week +42
Creighton 108 vs 119 last week +11
Xavier 109 vs 102 last week -7
Georgetown 114 vs 122 last week +8
Marquette 167 vs 167 last week 0
DePaul 198 vs 183 last week -15

This seems much more accurate than the initial rankings. I would still flip Providence and Georgetown but outside of that things look pretty good to me. Butler wasn't a top 25 team but is definitely top 50. Nova at 35 feels right too despite the lack of quality wins. We'll see how they look tonight in a really tough matchup with Michigan

(12-08-2025 10:24 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 09:17 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 12:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 12:13 PM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-08-2025 11:48 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Problem for both of them is already 4 OOC losses. So at best 7-4 OOC. Going to need to win 12 or 13 conference games to have a real shot.

I think the bigger problem for Creighton is that they just haven’t been playing well. They need to change some things about their basic fundamentals if they’re going to have hope for any kind of a season.

With a 20 game conference schedule, 12 or 13 wins is certainly achievable. Last year, 5 teams had 13 conference wins and a sixth had 11. It’s a zero sum game, so someone is going to get those wins.

Think it's very fair to say the conference has a lot more parity this year. last year 4 teams with 6 or fewer wins. Those 4 teams with only 18 wins- guaranteed to get 12 between the 4 of them. I really don't think that's the case this year.

We’ll find out as the season progresses. It’s still early.

We don’t have a lot of experience with a 20 game schedule due to the Covid years. Even still last year was not an isolated case of 5 teams getting 13 conference wins. Same thing happened 2 years earlier.

Even there same thing- bottom 4 teams only with 18 wins. 2 teams that didn't beat anyone but each other. The other 2 teams only with 4 wins each vs the other 8 teams. Just don't see the bottom this year being anywhere near that honestly.

Any season can take a lot of twists and turns. Too early really to know what will happen. The biggest unknown is always injuries.

(12-03-2025 01:32 PM)ecasadoSBU Wrote:  That's why I been thinking programs should consider playing some OOC games later in the year in between the conference season.

With the amount of new players, transfers, etc. in a program every single year, most teams are not at their best when they play OOC season in November - December.

And yet, the OOC is what basically decides the conference pecking order / conference bids on a given year.

Yes, individual programs in a conference can play their way in/out of the tourney during conference play - but the amount of bids the conference as a whole will get is mostly decided in NOV-DEC

Sorry for missing this post until now. I think the main reason the Big East doesn't do that is optics. A lot of the mid majors have been starting to play more games late in the season for that reason. Doing so may kind of give off a mid major vibe.

I agree it would be awesome to see like UConn Kentucky in February though lol