There are four buy games left that the league must win:

Butler vs NJIT
Creighton vs. Utah Tech
Georgetown vs. Coppin State
St. John's vs. Harvard

Torvik tournament percentages:

UConn: 100%
St. John's: 98.2%
Villanova: 78.8%
Seton Hall: 76.5%

Butler: 42.1%
Creighton: 32.6%

Providence: 0.9%
Xavier: 0.5%
Georgetown: 0.3%
Marquette: 0.2%
DePaul: 0.2%

If you do the simple statistical practice known as expected value, the league ends up with 4.3 bids as of today.

NET update:

UConn (7)
St. John's (28)
Villanova (30)
Seton Hall (34)
Butler (44)

Creighton (64)
Providence (99)
Xavier (120)
Georgetown (137)
DePaul (148)
Marquette (175)

P4 records by team (22-28 overall):

UConn: 5-1
Butler: 3-1
Seton Hall: 3-1
Xavier: 2-2
Georgetown: 2-2
Villanova: 2-2
St. John's: 2-4
DePaul: 1-2
Providence: 1-4
Creighton: 1-4
Marquette: 0-5

I ran a teamcast on Torvik for Creighton: assuming win over Utah Tech and a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 14-6 in league play (20-12 overall), they will be the fourth to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and a loss to both Nova and Seton Hall on the road.

For Butler: assuming win over NJIT and a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), the will be the second to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Nova: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Seton Hall: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (22-10 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn, St. John's and Villanova and losses to Creighton and Butler on the road.

For St. John's: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (19-13 overall), they will be a #10 seed. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and Villanova, and losses on the road to Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton, and Butler.

On a funny note, with the St. John's prediction (and each of these are separate), Torvik has six BE teams in (the five above and UConn).

(12-21-2025 11:34 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I ran a teamcast on Torvik for Creighton: assuming win over Utah Tech and a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 14-6 in league play (20-12 overall), they will be the fourth to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and a loss to both Nova and Seton Hall on the road.

For Butler: assuming win over NJIT and a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), the will be the second to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Nova: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Seton Hall: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (22-10 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn, St. John's and Villanova and losses to Creighton and Butler on the road.

For St. John's: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (19-13 overall), they will be a #10 seed. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and Villanova, and losses on the road to Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton, and Butler.

On a funny note, with the St. John's prediction (and each of these are separate), Torvik has six BE teams in (the five above and UConn).

Thanks for running this teamcast, has some really interesting results. I'm not sure if Creighton will be worthy of a bid even at 14-6 in league play, 1-4 against the other major conferences is really bad and some of those games weren't even close. But they would definitely be in the conversation.

Just curious, at 14-6 where were they projected to finish in the Big East standings?

(12-21-2025 07:58 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(12-21-2025 11:34 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I ran a teamcast on Torvik for Creighton: assuming win over Utah Tech and a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 14-6 in league play (20-12 overall), they will be the fourth to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and a loss to both Nova and Seton Hall on the road.

For Butler: assuming win over NJIT and a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), the will be the second to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Nova: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Seton Hall: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (22-10 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn, St. John's and Villanova and losses to Creighton and Butler on the road.

For St. John's: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (19-13 overall), they will be a #10 seed. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and Villanova, and losses on the road to Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton, and Butler.

On a funny note, with the St. John's prediction (and each of these are separate), Torvik has six BE teams in (the five above and UConn).

Thanks for running this teamcast, has some really interesting results. I'm not sure if Creighton will be worthy of a bid even at 14-6 in league play, 1-4 against the other major conferences is really bad and some of those games weren't even close. But they would definitely be in the conversation.

Just curious, at 14-6 where were they projected to finish in the Big East standings?

Right, if they're 14-6, no chance really they're a 4 seed.

(12-21-2025 08:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-21-2025 07:58 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(12-21-2025 11:34 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I ran a teamcast on Torvik for Creighton: assuming win over Utah Tech and a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 14-6 in league play (20-12 overall), they will be the fourth to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and a loss to both Nova and Seton Hall on the road.

For Butler: assuming win over NJIT and a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), the will be the second to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Nova: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Seton Hall: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (22-10 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn, St. John's and Villanova and losses to Creighton and Butler on the road.

For St. John's: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (19-13 overall), they will be a #10 seed. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and Villanova, and losses on the road to Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton, and Butler.

On a funny note, with the St. John's prediction (and each of these are separate), Torvik has six BE teams in (the five above and UConn).

Thanks for running this teamcast, has some really interesting results. I'm not sure if Creighton will be worthy of a bid even at 14-6 in league play, 1-4 against the other major conferences is really bad and some of those games weren't even close. But they would definitely be in the conversation.

Just curious, at 14-6 where were they projected to finish in the Big East standings?

Right, if they're 14-6, no chance really they're a 4 seed.

Yeah. I was also wondering if the 12-8 records are expected for most of these teams according to Torvik, or if they were just the worst case scenarios for each team to still make the tournament. I could really see the teams seeded 2-5 in the BET all be in the 11-9 to 13-7 range. Lot of parity this year. I could actually see 14-6 being the 2 seed

Tuesday update:
UConn 3
Seton Hall 24
St John's 30
Villanova 40- last team with bye
Butler 43- 2nd to last team in

Creighton 81- 13th team out

(12-21-2025 08:49 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(12-21-2025 08:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-21-2025 07:58 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(12-21-2025 11:34 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  I ran a teamcast on Torvik for Creighton: assuming win over Utah Tech and a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 14-6 in league play (20-12 overall), they will be the fourth to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and a loss to both Nova and Seton Hall on the road.

For Butler: assuming win over NJIT and a loss to Nova in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), the will be the second to last team in. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Villanova, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Nova: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (21-11 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and St. John's and losses to Creighton, Butler, Seton Hall, and Providence on the road.

For Seton Hall: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (22-10 overall), they will be the last bye. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn, St. John's and Villanova and losses to Creighton and Butler on the road.

For St. John's: assuming a loss to Butler in the BET quarterfinals, if they finish 12-8 in league play (19-13 overall), they will be a #10 seed. This is assuming 2x losses to UConn and Villanova, and losses on the road to Seton Hall, Providence, Creighton, and Butler.

On a funny note, with the St. John's prediction (and each of these are separate), Torvik has six BE teams in (the five above and UConn).

Thanks for running this teamcast, has some really interesting results. I'm not sure if Creighton will be worthy of a bid even at 14-6 in league play, 1-4 against the other major conferences is really bad and some of those games weren't even close. But they would definitely be in the conversation.

Just curious, at 14-6 where were they projected to finish in the Big East standings?

Right, if they're 14-6, no chance really they're a 4 seed.

Yeah. I was also wondering if the 12-8 records are expected for most of these teams according to Torvik, or if they were just the worst case scenarios for each team to still make the tournament. I could really see the teams seeded 2-5 in the BET all be in the 11-9 to 13-7 range. Lot of parity this year. I could actually see 14-6 being the 2 seed

totally agree with you on 14-6 maybe good enough to get the #2 seed.

Big East with a solid shot to get four at-large (for five total). That would be strong.

(12-23-2025 10:13 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Big East with a solid shot to get four at-large (for five total). That would be strong.

if its not more than 50% then i dont consider that strong.

on any give year: 4 is so-so, 5 would be good, 6 would be strong. 7+ would be excellent/dominant

(12-26-2025 01:18 AM)ecasadoSBU Wrote:  

(12-23-2025 10:13 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Big East with a solid shot to get four at-large (for five total). That would be strong.

if its not more than 50% then i dont consider that strong.

on any give year: 4 is so-so, 5 would be good, 6 would be strong. 7+ would be excellent/dominant

I'm sure some would share your view.

I simply feel that, given the Big East has a sub-.500 record against the all-sports P4 this season, the league's landing four at-large (for five teams total) in the tourney would be strong (at least compared to what the worst-case scenario could be).

But I see your point.

(12-26-2025 01:18 AM)ecasadoSBU Wrote:  

(12-23-2025 10:13 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Big East with a solid shot to get four at-large (for five total). That would be strong.

if its not more than 50% then i dont consider that strong.

on any give year: 4 is so-so, 5 would be good, 6 would be strong. 7+ would be excellent/dominant

Well, it’s a strong showing for the 5 teams who would be going to the tournament in this scenario.

(12-26-2025 08:18 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-26-2025 01:18 AM)ecasadoSBU Wrote:  

(12-23-2025 10:13 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Big East with a solid shot to get four at-large (for five total). That would be strong.

if its not more than 50% then i dont consider that strong.

on any give year: 4 is so-so, 5 would be good, 6 would be strong. 7+ would be excellent/dominant

I'm sure some would share your view.

I simply feel that, given the Big East has a sub-.500 record against the all-sports P4 this season, the league's landing four at-large (for five teams total) in the tourney would be strong (at least compared to what the worst-case scenario could be).

But I see your point.

I think it depends on how you look at it....

right now this minute for this year- getting 5 would be a strong result.

going into a year though- getting 5 would be a fairly meh result.

Update this morning:
3 UConn
29 St John's
30 Villanova
31 Seton Hall
43 Butler (2nd team in)

76 Creighton (8th team out)

(12-26-2025 11:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-26-2025 08:18 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-26-2025 01:18 AM)ecasadoSBU Wrote:  

(12-23-2025 10:13 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Big East with a solid shot to get four at-large (for five total). That would be strong.

if its not more than 50% then i dont consider that strong.

on any give year: 4 is so-so, 5 would be good, 6 would be strong. 7+ would be excellent/dominant

I'm sure some would share your view.

I simply feel that, given the Big East has a sub-.500 record against the all-sports P4 this season, the league's landing four at-large (for five teams total) in the tourney would be strong (at least compared to what the worst-case scenario could be).

But I see your point.

I think it depends on how you look at it....

right now this minute for this year- getting 5 would be a strong result.

going into a year though- getting 5 would be a fairly meh result.

How many leagues get 45% of their teams in the tournament?

On the numbers theme related to the NCAA tourney...

If for example and hypothetically, the 18-member Big Ten gets eight at-large (for nine total) and the 11-member Big East gets four at-large (for five total), the two leagues have essentially "tied" for the strong accomplishment of having placed about half their members, respectively, in the Big Dance field. But the Big Ten has the advantage to do well due to superior numbers. With nine in the tourney, the league has more margin for error compared to the Big East (with its five in the Dance).

It would help the Big East's perception and reputation to land a member other than UConn and/or Nova in the Final Four. But, in part, because the league's numbers are lacking — doing so likely will continue to be a challenge.

(12-30-2025 11:36 AM)Bill Marsh Wrote:  

(12-26-2025 11:21 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-26-2025 08:18 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(12-26-2025 01:18 AM)ecasadoSBU Wrote:  

(12-23-2025 10:13 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Big East with a solid shot to get four at-large (for five total). That would be strong.

if its not more than 50% then i dont consider that strong.

on any give year: 4 is so-so, 5 would be good, 6 would be strong. 7+ would be excellent/dominant

I'm sure some would share your view.

I simply feel that, given the Big East has a sub-.500 record against the all-sports P4 this season, the league's landing four at-large (for five teams total) in the tourney would be strong (at least compared to what the worst-case scenario could be).

But I see your point.

I think it depends on how you look at it....

right now this minute for this year- getting 5 would be a strong result.

going into a year though- getting 5 would be a fairly meh result.

How many leagues get 45% of their teams in the tournament?

most of the good ones do.

Also the issue is just raw # of teams. If Big Ten or SEC gets 45% of their teams in, that's 7 or 8 teams. Looks a lot different to casual fans than 5.

And finally- it's not just the # of teams. It's the seeding of teams. Last year league got 5 in, but only 1 was seeded higher than 7th. 1 was sent to Dayton.

Good ones? More like best ones.

We’re not casual fans here. And conferences don’t get teams in - teams get teams in.

Seeds come later. It’s still December.

(12-30-2025 12:24 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  On the numbers theme related to the NCAA tourney...

If for example and hypothetically, the 18-member Big Ten gets eight at-large (for nine total) and the 11-member Big East gets four at-large (for five total), the two leagues have essentially "tied" for the strong accomplishment of having placed about half their members, respectively, in the Big Dance field. But the Big Ten has the advantage to do well due to superior numbers. With nine in the tourney, the league has more margin for error compared to the Big East (with its five in the Dance).

It would help the Big East's perception and reputation to land a member other than UConn and/or Nova in the Final Four. But, in part, because the league's numbers are lacking — doing so likely will continue to be a challenge.

Unfortunately the optics determining league strength is often based on total number of league bids, not the percentage of teams that get in. If for example the ACC gets six teams in this year and the BE gets four, the perception will be the ACC got 50% more teams than the BE into the tournament, even though the BE percentage of teams in would be higher. Optics like this are only one of many reasons I feel expansion should be on the table. It's a rapidly changing world, and we need to be proactive for once. I would definitely add Dayton, VCU, and St. Louis, and I'd even be open to Memphis despite their having football. To people who say those programs aren't strong enough, my response would be look how Creighton and Xavier elevated their stature after joining. The new additions would probably enjoy the same kind of bounce.

(12-30-2025 10:57 PM)Traderwill Wrote:  

(12-30-2025 12:24 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  On the numbers theme related to the NCAA tourney...

If for example and hypothetically, the 18-member Big Ten gets eight at-large (for nine total) and the 11-member Big East gets four at-large (for five total), the two leagues have essentially "tied" for the strong accomplishment of having placed about half their members, respectively, in the Big Dance field. But the Big Ten has the advantage to do well due to superior numbers. With nine in the tourney, the league has more margin for error compared to the Big East (with its five in the Dance).

It would help the Big East's perception and reputation to land a member other than UConn and/or Nova in the Final Four. But, in part, because the league's numbers are lacking — doing so likely will continue to be a challenge.

Unfortunately the optics determining league strength is often based on total number of league bids, not the percentage of teams that get in. If for example the ACC gets six teams in this year and the BE gets four, the perception will be the ACC got 50% more teams than the BE into the tournament, even though the BE percentage of teams in would be higher. Optics like this are only one of many reasons I feel expansion should be on the table. It's a rapidly changing world, and we need to be proactive for once. I would definitely add Dayton, VCU, and St. Louis, and I'd even be open to Memphis despite their having football. To people who say those programs aren't strong enough, my response would be look how Creighton and Xavier elevated their stature after joining. The new additions would probably enjoy the same kind of bounce.

100%. Plus you get rid of the round robin, which leads to the ability to have better seeds for teams that make it.