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Polls need revamping
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otown Offline
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Polls need revamping
I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect
10-15-2025 02:32 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

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What are you doing, man? We just got Quo in charge of all AP polls until 2037!
10-15-2025 02:33 PM
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TrojanCampaign Offline
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RE: Polls need revamping
I don't think the blame is solely on the polls. There have been a lot of changes to the sport in the last 10 years that have happened very quickly. And the biggest problem is the desire for things to remain the same. It's become effectively impossible to actually determine who will and will not be a top 25 team.

The transfer portal has created a system to where a team can win six games one year and win 12 the next year by simply putting the right pieces in the right spots. It's no longer about building a team it's about assembling one with NIL and transfers.

Personally, I think that preseason top 5 is fine. But the top 25 thing needs to die. The first top 25 polls should come out in week two.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2025 03:08 PM by TrojanCampaign.)
10-15-2025 03:05 PM
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ken d Online
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

How do you explain that the Sagarin ratings, which are computer based and at this point in the season no longer use any preseason ratings, has 12 SEC teams ranked in its Top 25, compared to 11 in the AP Poll?

If the polls influence the CFP selection committee, would you say that if you were on that committee you would be influenced in the same way? Or are you saying that you are either more objective or more knowledgable than the members of the selection committee?
10-15-2025 03:13 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 03:05 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I don't think the blame is solely on the polls. There have been a lot of changes to the sport in the last 10 years that have happened very quickly. And the biggest problem is the desire for things to remain the same. It's become effectively impossible to actually determine who will and will not be a top 25 team.

The transfer portal has created a system to where a team can win six games one year and win 12 the next year by simply putting the right pieces in the right spots. It's no longer about building a team it's about assembling one with NIL and transfers.

There are roughly 60-70 college FBS football games a week. You'd almost need to be a full time poll member as your main job in order to watch enough games to have a fully informed opinion capable of creating a poll that anyone should rely upon. Most of us watch a primary team----closely follow probably one conference---and maybe catch parts of few other games from other conferences. Thats enough for an opinion----but hardly enough to really have a detailed definitive opinion (and many poll voters clearly watch even less variety than I described).
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2025 03:15 PM by Attackcoog.)
10-15-2025 03:14 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

These systems he is using for his conclusion are pretty much a joke.
10-15-2025 03:49 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 03:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

These systems he is using for his conclusion are pretty much a joke.
Regardless, the LSU example does hold merit.
10-15-2025 04:30 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 04:30 PM)otown Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 03:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

These systems he is using for his conclusion are pretty much a joke.
Regardless, the LSU example does hold merit.

FWIW, I think LSU is not likely to end the regular season as a ranked team. They are IMO a weakly-coached paper tiger - and I blame coaching because all the talent indices I am aware of say they have top 10 talent - and are likely to be out of the rankings three weeks from now. They play Vandy, Alabama and Texas AM and IMO will be lucky to win one of those. Brian Kelly could soon be sitting on the hottest seat in the country and LSU might be joining Penn State and Florida as elite programs searching for a new coach. Wouldn't surprise me.

That said, it's hard for me to agree that they are overrated right now. Both polls have them at #10 and ... the Massey Composite has them at #11 and Sagarin has them at #10. ESPN's "power index" has them at #11.

So IMO, there seems to be a very close congruence between the voters and the computers, no evidence that the voters are succumbing to a false narrative about them now.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2025 04:41 PM by quo vadis.)
10-15-2025 04:41 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 04:30 PM)otown Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 03:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

These systems he is using for his conclusion are pretty much a joke.
Regardless, the LSU example does hold merit.

FWIW, I think LSU is not likely to end the regular season as a ranked team. They are IMO a weakly-coached paper tiger - and I blame coaching because all the talent indices I am aware of say they have top 10 talent - and are likely to be out of the rankings three weeks from now. They play Vandy, Alabama and Texas AM and IMO will be lucky to win one of those. Brian Kelly could soon be sitting on the hottest seat in the country and LSU might be joining Penn State and Florida as elite programs searching for a new coach. Wouldn't surprise me.

That said, it's hard for me to agree that they are overrated right now. Both polls have them at #10 and ... the Massey Composite has them at #11 and Sagarin has them at #10. ESPN's "power index" has them at #11.

So IMO, there seems to be a very close congruence between the voters and the computers, no evidence that the voters are succumbing to a false narrative about them now.

I appreciate the confidence, but I'm already losing sleep over LSU.
10-15-2025 04:47 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 04:47 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 04:30 PM)otown Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 03:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

These systems he is using for his conclusion are pretty much a joke.
Regardless, the LSU example does hold merit.

FWIW, I think LSU is not likely to end the regular season as a ranked team. They are IMO a weakly-coached paper tiger - and I blame coaching because all the talent indices I am aware of say they have top 10 talent - and are likely to be out of the rankings three weeks from now. They play Vandy, Alabama and Texas AM and IMO will be lucky to win one of those. Brian Kelly could soon be sitting on the hottest seat in the country and LSU might be joining Penn State and Florida as elite programs searching for a new coach. Wouldn't surprise me.

That said, it's hard for me to agree that they are overrated right now. Both polls have them at #10 and ... the Massey Composite has them at #11 and Sagarin has them at #10. ESPN's "power index" has them at #11.

So IMO, there seems to be a very close congruence between the voters and the computers, no evidence that the voters are succumbing to a false narrative about them now.

I appreciate the confidence, but I'm already losing sleep over LSU.

Not unjustified - you may well be the one they beat.
10-15-2025 04:49 PM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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RE: Polls need revamping
Here’s something I was thinking about the other day. I fully believe the SEC is the best conference this year and yet, I don’t think they have a top 4 team. Which makes it hard for me to still view them as the best league even though I definitely think they’re the deepest league. Does anyone else relate to that?
10-15-2025 04:57 PM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Polls need revamping
Some valid points. Totally agree that LSU is overrated and rankings inertia is a real thing. The recent admissions of pollsters that they didn't observe a particular result or didn't feel that their vote really matters discredit the polls and the rankings systems.

The USC and Illinois examples are poorly selected. Illinois didn't just lose to one of the best teams, they lost by 53 points! That matters. And, what is USC's big win? Michigan? Why was Michigan ranked? Because of a solid 11-point road loss to Oklahoma? (who didn't look so hot on Saturday) Or, was it because of Michigan's brand and conference affiliation?

And it was the Big Ten's own Penn State that made a mockery of the polls by sitting in the TOP-TWO for a month, without a single P4 win...because of.....brand and conference affiliation...only to nosedive into mediocrity. Seems like that should have been a primary exhibit to support his thesis that the polls are inherently biased, but he conveniently left them out because of....his own biases.

We all do it. And with so few cross-conference games, it's extremely subjective and often based on the eye test. I support a reasonable increase in the number of autobids. Settle things with actual games, not by beauty pageant.
10-15-2025 05:17 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 04:57 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Here’s something I was thinking about the other day. I fully believe the SEC is the best conference this year and yet, I don’t think they have a top 4 team. Which makes it hard for me to still view them as the best league even though I definitely think they’re the deepest league. Does anyone else relate to that?

I don't think we can truly know because there are so few inter-conference games.

Ohio State looks like a great team...but are they number one? They only beat Texas by a single touchdown. Hard to call that a great win if Texas ends up a mid-tier SEC team.

Indiana has looked great against Illinois and Oregon...but their big OOC game was against Old Dominion?

Texas Tech is on a roll...but their big OOC win is over Oregon State?

Miami seems to have a great resume...but, the win over Florida State has lost some shine...and will the 3-point home win over Notre Dame hold up as a marquee win the rest of the season?
10-15-2025 05:30 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 05:30 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 04:57 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Here’s something I was thinking about the other day. I fully believe the SEC is the best conference this year and yet, I don’t think they have a top 4 team. Which makes it hard for me to still view them as the best league even though I definitely think they’re the deepest league. Does anyone else relate to that?

I don't think we can truly know because there are so few inter-conference games.

Ohio State looks like a great team...but are they number one? They only beat Texas by a single touchdown. Hard to call that a great win if Texas ends up a mid-tier SEC team.

Indiana has looked great against Illinois and Oregon...but their big OOC game was against Old Dominion?

Texas Tech is on a roll...but their big OOC win is over Oregon State?

Miami seems to have a great resume...but, the win over Florida State has lost some shine...and will the 3-point home win over Notre Dame hold up as a marquee win the rest of the season?

I mean that logic applies to the SEC teams as well. A&M has a 1 point win over ND similar to Miami. Georgia and Bama didn’t notch any impressive non-conference wins. Ole Miss beat Tulane and Wazzu. I think at a minimum we’re looking at 3 straight years of the SEC not even making the title game and I don’t think that’s nothing.

Edit: also can people stop questioning ND? Like they’re clearly a top 10 team and lost to A&M and Miami by combined 4 points. I know it’s going to piss people off but they will win out and make the playoffs again.
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2025 07:37 PM by WhoseHouse?.)
10-15-2025 07:29 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 05:17 PM)YNot Wrote:  Some valid points. Totally agree that LSU is overrated and rankings inertia is a real thing. The recent admissions of pollsters that they didn't observe a particular result or didn't feel that their vote really matters discredit the polls and the rankings systems.

The USC and Illinois examples are poorly selected. Illinois didn't just lose to one of the best teams, they lost by 53 points! That matters. And, what is USC's big win? Michigan? Why was Michigan ranked? Because of a solid 11-point road loss to Oklahoma? (who didn't look so hot on Saturday) Or, was it because of Michigan's brand and conference affiliation?

And it was the Big Ten's own Penn State that made a mockery of the polls by sitting in the TOP-TWO for a month, without a single P4 win...because of.....brand and conference affiliation...only to nosedive into mediocrity. Seems like that should have been a primary exhibit to support his thesis that the polls are inherently biased, but he conveniently left them out because of....his own biases.

We all do it. And with so few cross-conference games, it's extremely subjective and often based on the eye test. I support a reasonable increase in the number of autobids. Settle things with actual games, not by beauty pageant.

I have never made a secret of the fact that I dislike polls. All polls.

Polls and ranking algorithms have two things in common. They are all flawed and they are all biased. When it comes to college football we have never really had a playoff that had a field that everybody agreed was the "right" one. That isn't to say we have never had a "champion" that was overwhelmingly believed to be the "best" team that year after the playoff ended.

We all know that, in other college sports, the winner of the national championship tournament is not always the best team. But their championship is not disputed, because the nature of those sports is such that all teams capable of winning the tournament have a path to enter the field, even though some teams in the field who have no chance of winning are also included.

Now that we have a larger CFP field we are getting close to a point where there aren't any teams capable of winning it that are excluded. But there are still likely some teams who would be capable of upsetting a team that could be the champion who don't get a bid. Because of the money involved in just getting invited, flawed polls or other subjective processes for selecting teams, there needs to be a way, IMO, for selecting teams based on performance on the field, not in polls.

Even though it is subjective in a way to award more autobids to some conferences than others, I still prefer that to polls or committees. Very few people involved in or fans of college football would dispute that the SEC and B1G have more resources and more good teams than any other conferences, and that the other two P conferences have more resources and more good teams than G conferences do. That should be reflected in how many autobids each conference gets.

I believe that the best way to decide who gets to play in the CFP is by having CCGs and WCGs among teams based on where they finish in their conference standings, regardless of where those teams are ranked in human polls or computer algorithms. I hope we are moving in that direction.
10-15-2025 07:38 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 03:05 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I don't think the blame is solely on the polls. There have been a lot of changes to the sport in the last 10 years that have happened very quickly. And the biggest problem is the desire for things to remain the same. It's become effectively impossible to actually determine who will and will not be a top 25 team.

The transfer portal has created a system to where a team can win six games one year and win 12 the next year by simply putting the right pieces in the right spots. It's no longer about building a team it's about assembling one with NIL and transfers.

Personally, I think that preseason top 5 is fine. But the top 25 thing needs to die. The first top 25 polls should come out in week two.

This is spot on - unrestricted annual free agency makes it really hard to have any idea what is going to happen when the games actually get played. Just look at UCLA - called the worst team in the sport, changes coach, starts to win games that Vegas has them as huge underdogs. Clearly there is a lot of talent but that talent didn’t have much time to gel and clearly the coach did not have any idea how to put the pieces together. Now they could be in the upper half of the Big 10. Unprecedented times!
10-15-2025 08:00 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 04:30 PM)otown Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 03:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

These systems he is using for his conclusion are pretty much a joke.
Regardless, the LSU example does hold merit.

FWIW, I think LSU is not likely to end the regular season as a ranked team. They are IMO a weakly-coached paper tiger - and I blame coaching because all the talent indices I am aware of say they have top 10 talent - and are likely to be out of the rankings three weeks from now. They play Vandy, Alabama and Texas AM and IMO will be lucky to win one of those. Brian Kelly could soon be sitting on the hottest seat in the country and LSU might be joining Penn State and Florida as elite programs searching for a new coach. Wouldn't surprise me.

That said, it's hard for me to agree that they are overrated right now. Both polls have them at #10 and ... the Massey Composite has them at #11 and Sagarin has them at #10. ESPN's "power index" has them at #11.

So IMO, there seems to be a very close congruence between the voters and the computers, no evidence that the voters are succumbing to a false narrative about them now.

Thats the point. They failed the current eye test, and you admit it too. Unfortunately when a poll has baked in bias, it picks and chooses when to enforce the eye test. Realistically, current resumes should hold more merit. Who care if they beat a ranked team early in the season if that team turned out to be hot garbage. Doesn't sagarin and massey still contain data from last year? Wouldn't that nullify them having any relevance at this point?
(This post was last modified: 10-15-2025 08:16 PM by otown.)
10-15-2025 08:13 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 05:30 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 04:57 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Here’s something I was thinking about the other day. I fully believe the SEC is the best conference this year and yet, I don’t think they have a top 4 team. Which makes it hard for me to still view them as the best league even though I definitely think they’re the deepest league. Does anyone else relate to that?

I don't think we can truly know because there are so few inter-conference games.

Ohio State looks like a great team...but are they number one? They only beat Texas by a single touchdown. Hard to call that a great win if Texas ends up a mid-tier SEC team.

Indiana has looked great against Illinois and Oregon...but their big OOC game was against Old Dominion?

Texas Tech is on a roll...but their big OOC win is over Oregon State?

Miami seems to have a great resume...but, the win over Florida State has lost some shine...and will the 3-point home win over Notre Dame hold up as a marquee win the rest of the season?

Miami also destroyed a quality USF, and they beat a Florida that turned around and beat Texas. Some of the schools with high rankings haven't played anybody yet, but Miami isn't one of them. They've played a very difficult schedule thus far.
10-15-2025 08:57 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 04:30 PM)otown Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 03:49 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-15-2025 02:32 PM)otown Wrote:  I know, common knowledge. However, even though I do feel SEC is the strongest conference, this piece does make me second guess some things. Now, before anyone says that these polls mean nothing and it is the CFP poll that really matters, I am quite confident these polls do influence the committee somewhat, especially their first ranking.
https://www.outkick.com/sports/college-f...disconnect

These systems he is using for his conclusion are pretty much a joke.
Regardless, the LSU example does hold merit.

FWIW, I think LSU is not likely to end the regular season as a ranked team. They are IMO a weakly-coached paper tiger - and I blame coaching because all the talent indices I am aware of say they have top 10 talent - and are likely to be out of the rankings three weeks from now. They play Vandy, Alabama and Texas AM and IMO will be lucky to win one of those. Brian Kelly could soon be sitting on the hottest seat in the country and LSU might be joining Penn State and Florida as elite programs searching for a new coach. Wouldn't surprise me.

That said, it's hard for me to agree that they are overrated right now. Both polls have them at #10 and ... the Massey Composite has them at #11 and Sagarin has them at #10. ESPN's "power index" has them at #11.

So IMO, there seems to be a very close congruence between the voters and the computers, no evidence that the voters are succumbing to a false narrative about them now.
I think the jury is still out on just about everybody this year. See UCLA for example.
10-15-2025 09:39 PM
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RE: Polls need revamping
(10-15-2025 04:57 PM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Here’s something I was thinking about the other day. I fully believe the SEC is the best conference this year and yet, I don’t think they have a top 4 team. Which makes it hard for me to still view them as the best league even though I definitely think they’re the deepest league. Does anyone else relate to that?

No.

Plus, while Miami is a likely #2 behind Ohio St, I'm not totally convinced. And there are a half dozen SEC schools that could be strong contenders for #3.
Out of conference record vs. FBS so far:
SEC 35-6 85.4%!
Big Ten 30-9 76.9%
Big 12 22-9 71.0%
American 19-15 55.9%
ACC 21-17 55.3%
MWC 14-20 41.1%
SB 12-28 30.0%
CUSA 8-24 25.0%
MAC 5-33 13.2%
Ind 9-14 39.1%
FCS 4-115 3.4%

Out of conference records vs. P4+ND
SEC 10-4
Big 12 8-7
Big Ten 5-6 (they REALLY softened up their schedules this year compared to usual)
ACC 6-13
ND 3-2
the Rest 11-80
10-15-2025 09:50 PM
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