(06-19-2025 03:03 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Hopefully EVERY POTUS should have to go into war "Kicking and Screaming". It shouldn't be easy.

I agree. That is always his position, and it should be. But now seems to be the time.

He is still talking about getting Iran back to the table to negotiate. Does anybody here think they will do that in good faith? Of course not.

I understand Trump's reluctance, I just think the Iranians are giving Israel and us no other choice, and more delays are just delays.

This thread is the kind of discussion I prefer to have. I have low tolerance for stupidity and nonsensical self licking diatribes. Some of you have impressed me in this thread on your knowledge.

This is where my true expertise lies. Though I had to become more knowledgeable on immigration issues because Biden admin literally let hundreds of people into the US with ties or associations to virtually every designated terrorist group, so that forced my hand. One of the top immigration lawyers is literally 50 feet down the hall from me so that helps.

But Sunni/ Shia terrorism is where I’ve spent most of the past decade and I hope to one day forget all I know about the Iranian regime and its proxies. Hell, my previous boss in the Biden admin literally was the interlocutor and negotiator on the nuclear deal under the Obama admin.

All that said I’m not privy to the Presidents decision making and even if I were I wouldn’t talk about it here and obviously there’s still a lot I can’t talk about so everything here is simply my personal opinion.

I don’t think the President wants to enter into the war game directly because it would likely result in regime change in some form or fashion. Regime change is a problem because of China, which would surely capitlaize on the vacuum and potentially gain an even stronger foothold in the region. Regime change also comes with additional uncertainties in an already f’d up region. Keeping the regime in place under the thumb of an actually strong American position through a deal would be a coup in the figurative sense that’s better than a literal coup.

Moreover, a deal in place and agreed to by Trump gives him more leeway to get involved and annihilate Iran if they happened to renege after an agreement takes place should one be reached.

So, again my opinion what Trump wants is as follows:
1. No nuclear Iran
2. An Iran beholden to the US’s requirements through strong agreement. That agreement includes:
3. Iran severs ties with Venezuela and limits dealings with China to only commercial interests.
4. Irans malign influence in the region comes to an end particularly the attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
5. All funding and association to its various proxy groups: Hizbollah, Hamas, Houthi’s, and the Iraqi based proxies like Kataib Hezbollah is cut off and the groups publicly renounced by Iran.
6. Iran eliminates its entire offensive cyber warfare operations.

Great stuff, TIBL. Thanks. This is actually the type of discussion most of us here prefer, believe it or not.

We have two serious disruptors (I think you have figured them out already), but several more libs who manage to go back and forth with us without the world ending.

Now for a question: What do you think are the chances that Trump gets what he wants out of this deal? My impression is the Iranis are not going to cooperate, and are going to force our hand at some point.

(06-19-2025 06:52 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Great stuff, TIBL. Thanks. This is actually the type of discussion most of us here prefer, believe it or not.

We have two serious disruptors (I think you have figured them out already), but several more libs who manage to go back and forth with us without the world ending.

Now for a question: What do you think are the chances that Trump gets what he wants out of this deal? My impression is the Iranis are not going to cooperate, and are going to force our hand at some point.

It’s a fair question and why I suppose we’re seeing some news reporting that there’s strong debate within the Presidents close circle about regime change.

And frankly it’s also a very complex equation. There is a lot of hubris in Khameni and the regime because they’ve been able to retain power for nearly 50 years probably developing the belief after all this time they could perpetuate this dynamic for perpetuity. At this point the question is how much has he and his family been humbled? I imagine preservation of the Revolution is of upmost concern so that he can hand off power to his son once his time comes to an end. He’s no spring chicken.

Right now the bigger problem for the regime isn’t the US or Israel, it’s the Iranian people fed up with oppression. If they believe he can no longer protect them from the “Zionists” the oppression is no longer of any utility. There’s a reason why he spent most of his speech he delivered in English talking about uprisings instead of to Trump and America people. That’s telling because that speech was not done in Farsi. Yet he’s still talking to his own people. That was fascinating. Striking a deal now would weaken Netanyahu with the Isreali’s who do want an end to the regime and buying some time in hoping for a Democratic US administration in three and a half years is likely enough to get them to a deal. They would probably abide by it until Trump has left office. At this moment in time I believe preservation of power is the most important factor in their decision making but he’s an egotistical narcissist of the highest order so a) can he bring himself to admit defeat and b) can he fend off his own people if does so because that would demonstrate the Iranian people that he’s been weakened.

Thanks. Who knows? Guess we get to see how it unfolds. It's obvious that Bibi and Trump have 2 different objectives in mind. And the result is likely to rest with how Khameini reacts.

One way or the other, their nuclear capacity is going to be toast.

(06-19-2025 06:17 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  This thread is the kind of discussion I prefer to have. I have low tolerance for stupidity and nonsensical self licking diatribes. Some of you have impressed me in this thread on your knowledge.

This is where my true expertise lies. Though I had to become more knowledgeable on immigration issues because Biden admin literally let hundreds of people into the US with ties or associations to virtually every designated terrorist group, so that forced my hand. One of the top immigration lawyers is literally 50 feet down the hall from me so that helps.

But Sunni/ Shia terrorism is where I’ve spent most of the past decade and I hope to one day forget all I know about the Iranian regime and its proxies. Hell, my previous boss in the Biden admin literally was the interlocutor and negotiator on the nuclear deal under the Obama admin.

All that said I’m not privy to the Presidents decision making and even if I were I wouldn’t talk about it here and obviously there’s still a lot I can’t talk about so everything here is simply my personal opinion.

I don’t think the President wants to enter into the war game directly because it would likely result in regime change in some form or fashion. Regime change is a problem because of China, which would surely capitlaize on the vacuum and potentially gain an even stronger foothold in the region. Regime change also comes with additional uncertainties in an already f’d up region. Keeping the regime in place under the thumb of an actually strong American position through a deal would be a coup in the figurative sense that’s better than a literal coup.

Moreover, a deal in place and agreed to by Trump gives him more leeway to get involved and annihilate Iran if they happened to renege after an agreement takes place should one be reached.

So, again my opinion what Trump wants is as follows:
1. No nuclear Iran
2. An Iran beholden to the US’s requirements through strong agreement. That agreement includes:
3. Iran severs ties with Venezuela and limits dealings with China to only commercial interests.
4. Irans malign influence in the region comes to an end particularly the attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
5. All funding and association to its various proxy groups: Hizbollah, Hamas, Houthi’s, and the Iraqi based proxies like Kataib Hezbollah is cut off and the groups publicly renounced by Iran.
6. Iran eliminates its entire offensive cyber warfare operations.

The one major drawback on that is unless a deal is ratified by congress sooner or later there will be a democrat President. When that happens Iran will push any deal made by Trump under that mountain. Trump scares people so they will walk the line for 3.5 years. After that the deal is not worth anything. Even if ratified by congress Iran is going to test the next president to see what they can get away with.

Going to be a very long time before everything is as perfect as it is now to make the effort to destroy Iran's ability to make nukes. Even if Iran breaks the deal with the next American president the only thing to happen to them would be sanctions. No president is going to send planes over there to level that mountain unless its done none.

(06-19-2025 07:37 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 06:52 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Great stuff, TIBL. Thanks. This is actually the type of discussion most of us here prefer, believe it or not.

We have two serious disruptors (I think you have figured them out already), but several more libs who manage to go back and forth with us without the world ending.

Now for a question: What do you think are the chances that Trump gets what he wants out of this deal? My impression is the Iranis are not going to cooperate, and are going to force our hand at some point.

It’s a fair question and why I suppose we’re seeing some news reporting that there’s strong debate within the Presidents close circle about regime change.

And frankly it’s also a very complex equation. There is a lot of hubris in Khameni and the regime because they’ve been able to retain power for nearly 50 years probably developing the belief after all this time they could perpetuate this dynamic for perpetuity. At this point the question is how much has he and his family been humbled? I imagine preservation of the Revolution is of upmost concern so that he can hand off power to his son once his time comes to an end. He’s no spring chicken.

Right now the bigger problem for the regime isn’t the US or Israel, it’s the Iranian people fed up with oppression. If they believe he can no longer protect them from the “Zionists” the oppression is no longer of any utility. There’s a reason why he spent most of his speech he delivered in English talking about uprisings instead of to Trump and America people. That’s telling because that speech was not done in Farsi. Yet he’s still talking to his own people. That was fascinating. Striking a deal now would weaken Netanyahu with the Isreali’s who do want an end to the regime and buying some time in hoping for a Democratic US administration in three and a half years is likely enough to get them to a deal. They would probably abide by it until Trump has left office. At this moment in time I believe preservation of power is the most important factor in their decision making but he’s an egotistical narcissist of the highest order so a) can he bring himself to admit defeat and b) can he fend off his own people if does so because that would demonstrate the Iranian people that he’s been weakened.

Id love to see the Iranian people get a chance to select their future direction. That nation's population skews very young (60% under 30 yrs old)---and I suspect they would prefer a much more moderate regime thats more free and more open to the West.

Any other country and half the world would be coming out against what Israel is doing. The whole UE would be begging Trump not to jump into it and what that means. They might not come out and say it publicly but most of the world leaders, including most of the ME. Would say thank God, if Israel or America took out Iran's ability to make a nuke. Maybe forever but at least in the lifetime of most adults alive today

The timing cannot get more prefect and the only downside is who steps into Iran as the leader is a unknown. But no matter who that is the world is 1000x safer than Iran with a nuke. If those reactors are not taken out that is still a very possibility that we get to this very point again in the next 15 to 20 years.

(06-19-2025 03:05 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 03:03 PM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  Hopefully EVERY POTUS should have to go into war "Kicking and Screaming". It shouldn't be easy.

I agree. That is always his position, and it should be. But now seems to be the time.

He is still talking about getting Iran back to the table to negotiate. Does anybody here think they will do that in good faith? Of course not.

I understand Trump's reluctance, I just think the Iranians are giving Israel and us no other choice, and more delays are just delays.

Who does Trump think there is left to negotiate with? He’s just stalling I’m afraid. Wanting Israel to do it themselves which they will. But I’m sure they would like some backup.
Look, I like Trump’s domestic policies, but he’s done a lot of tough talking about both of these conflicts and really hasn’t accomplished anything. He needs to show some strength or risk looking weak.

(06-19-2025 07:37 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 06:52 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Great stuff, TIBL. Thanks. This is actually the type of discussion most of us here prefer, believe it or not.

We have two serious disruptors (I think you have figured them out already), but several more libs who manage to go back and forth with us without the world ending.

Now for a question: What do you think are the chances that Trump gets what he wants out of this deal? My impression is the Iranis are not going to cooperate, and are going to force our hand at some point.

It’s a fair question and why I suppose we’re seeing some news reporting that there’s strong debate within the Presidents close circle about regime change.

And frankly it’s also a very complex equation. There is a lot of hubris in Khameni and the regime because they’ve been able to retain power for nearly 50 years probably developing the belief after all this time they could perpetuate this dynamic for perpetuity. At this point the question is how much has he and his family been humbled? I imagine preservation of the Revolution is of upmost concern so that he can hand off power to his son once his time comes to an end. He’s no spring chicken.

Right now the bigger problem for the regime isn’t the US or Israel, it’s the Iranian people fed up with oppression. If they believe he can no longer protect them from the “Zionists” the oppression is no longer of any utility. There’s a reason why he spent most of his speech he delivered in English talking about uprisings instead of to Trump and America people. That’s telling because that speech was not done in Farsi. Yet he’s still talking to his own people. That was fascinating. Striking a deal now would weaken Netanyahu with the Isreali’s who do want an end to the regime and buying some time in hoping for a Democratic US administration in three and a half years is likely enough to get them to a deal. They would probably abide by it until Trump has left office. At this moment in time I believe preservation of power is the most important factor in their decision making but he’s an egotistical narcissist of the highest order so a) can he bring himself to admit defeat and b) can he fend off his own people if does so because that would demonstrate the Iranian people that he’s been weakened.

The Israelis are already bombing the bunker Khameni is reportedly hiding in with his family. I don’t think they are going to let him hand off anything.
So where does that leave this plan that Trump may have?

(06-19-2025 09:32 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 07:37 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 06:52 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Great stuff, TIBL. Thanks. This is actually the type of discussion most of us here prefer, believe it or not.

We have two serious disruptors (I think you have figured them out already), but several more libs who manage to go back and forth with us without the world ending.

Now for a question: What do you think are the chances that Trump gets what he wants out of this deal? My impression is the Iranis are not going to cooperate, and are going to force our hand at some point.

It’s a fair question and why I suppose we’re seeing some news reporting that there’s strong debate within the Presidents close circle about regime change.

And frankly it’s also a very complex equation. There is a lot of hubris in Khameni and the regime because they’ve been able to retain power for nearly 50 years probably developing the belief after all this time they could perpetuate this dynamic for perpetuity. At this point the question is how much has he and his family been humbled? I imagine preservation of the Revolution is of upmost concern so that he can hand off power to his son once his time comes to an end. He’s no spring chicken.

Right now the bigger problem for the regime isn’t the US or Israel, it’s the Iranian people fed up with oppression. If they believe he can no longer protect them from the “Zionists” the oppression is no longer of any utility. There’s a reason why he spent most of his speech he delivered in English talking about uprisings instead of to Trump and America people. That’s telling because that speech was not done in Farsi. Yet he’s still talking to his own people. That was fascinating. Striking a deal now would weaken Netanyahu with the Isreali’s who do want an end to the regime and buying some time in hoping for a Democratic US administration in three and a half years is likely enough to get them to a deal. They would probably abide by it until Trump has left office. At this moment in time I believe preservation of power is the most important factor in their decision making but he’s an egotistical narcissist of the highest order so a) can he bring himself to admit defeat and b) can he fend off his own people if does so because that would demonstrate the Iranian people that he’s been weakened.

The Israelis are already bombing the bunker Khameni is reportedly hiding in with his family. I don’t think they are going to let him hand off anything.
So where does that leave this plan that Trump may have?

Oh, to be a fly on the wall inside the Situation Room at the White House. (Or wherever Trump is at the moment. lol) But really, I wish I knew the answer to that question.

(06-19-2025 09:32 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 07:37 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 06:52 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Great stuff, TIBL. Thanks. This is actually the type of discussion most of us here prefer, believe it or not.

We have two serious disruptors (I think you have figured them out already), but several more libs who manage to go back and forth with us without the world ending.

Now for a question: What do you think are the chances that Trump gets what he wants out of this deal? My impression is the Iranis are not going to cooperate, and are going to force our hand at some point.

It’s a fair question and why I suppose we’re seeing some news reporting that there’s strong debate within the Presidents close circle about regime change.

And frankly it’s also a very complex equation. There is a lot of hubris in Khameni and the regime because they’ve been able to retain power for nearly 50 years probably developing the belief after all this time they could perpetuate this dynamic for perpetuity. At this point the question is how much has he and his family been humbled? I imagine preservation of the Revolution is of upmost concern so that he can hand off power to his son once his time comes to an end. He’s no spring chicken.

Right now the bigger problem for the regime isn’t the US or Israel, it’s the Iranian people fed up with oppression. If they believe he can no longer protect them from the “Zionists” the oppression is no longer of any utility. There’s a reason why he spent most of his speech he delivered in English talking about uprisings instead of to Trump and America people. That’s telling because that speech was not done in Farsi. Yet he’s still talking to his own people. That was fascinating. Striking a deal now would weaken Netanyahu with the Isreali’s who do want an end to the regime and buying some time in hoping for a Democratic US administration in three and a half years is likely enough to get them to a deal. They would probably abide by it until Trump has left office. At this moment in time I believe preservation of power is the most important factor in their decision making but he’s an egotistical narcissist of the highest order so a) can he bring himself to admit defeat and b) can he fend off his own people if does so because that would demonstrate the Iranian people that he’s been weakened.

The Israelis are already bombing the bunker Khameni is reportedly hiding in with his family. I don’t think they are going to let him hand off anything.
So where does that leave this plan that Trump may have?

If Khameni and his son are both taken out, power vacuum. China is going to meddle. Probably Russia too. Turkey is going to have a vested interest and probably work with the Russians. It will be messy. This is what I was referring to earlier. From a geopolitical perspective probably better for US if that doesn’t happen and they remain under our thumb. In this scenario China becomes a significant problem especially if they are the ones that prop up a puppet govt and establish military bases there.

(06-19-2025 09:44 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 09:32 PM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 07:37 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(06-19-2025 06:52 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Great stuff, TIBL. Thanks. This is actually the type of discussion most of us here prefer, believe it or not.

We have two serious disruptors (I think you have figured them out already), but several more libs who manage to go back and forth with us without the world ending.

Now for a question: What do you think are the chances that Trump gets what he wants out of this deal? My impression is the Iranis are not going to cooperate, and are going to force our hand at some point.

It’s a fair question and why I suppose we’re seeing some news reporting that there’s strong debate within the Presidents close circle about regime change.

And frankly it’s also a very complex equation. There is a lot of hubris in Khameni and the regime because they’ve been able to retain power for nearly 50 years probably developing the belief after all this time they could perpetuate this dynamic for perpetuity. At this point the question is how much has he and his family been humbled? I imagine preservation of the Revolution is of upmost concern so that he can hand off power to his son once his time comes to an end. He’s no spring chicken.

Right now the bigger problem for the regime isn’t the US or Israel, it’s the Iranian people fed up with oppression. If they believe he can no longer protect them from the “Zionists” the oppression is no longer of any utility. There’s a reason why he spent most of his speech he delivered in English talking about uprisings instead of to Trump and America people. That’s telling because that speech was not done in Farsi. Yet he’s still talking to his own people. That was fascinating. Striking a deal now would weaken Netanyahu with the Isreali’s who do want an end to the regime and buying some time in hoping for a Democratic US administration in three and a half years is likely enough to get them to a deal. They would probably abide by it until Trump has left office. At this moment in time I believe preservation of power is the most important factor in their decision making but he’s an egotistical narcissist of the highest order so a) can he bring himself to admit defeat and b) can he fend off his own people if does so because that would demonstrate the Iranian people that he’s been weakened.

The Israelis are already bombing the bunker Khameni is reportedly hiding in with his family. I don’t think they are going to let him hand off anything.
So where does that leave this plan that Trump may have?

If Khameni and his son are both taken out, power vacuum. China is going to meddle. Probably Russia too. Turkey is going to have a vested interest and probably work with the Russians. It will be messy. This is what I was referring to earlier. From a geopolitical perspective probably better for US if that doesn’t happen and they remain under our thumb. In this scenario China becomes a significant problem especially if they are the ones that prop up a puppet govt and establish military bases there.

Every Muslim state in the region will be trying to fill that void. And as much as some of them pretend to be our allies, the main one has already had its sons attack us.

Bibi seems determined to do away with Khameini, so we're all about to FAFO what's next.

The only consolation is I can't imagine how it could be worse, but never say never.

IAEA Director said yesterday that Iran currently has enough uranium to make several bombs, and could do it in a matter of days.

American Intel confirmed.

OTOH, there is no indication of the final steps yet taking place.

(06-20-2025 07:08 AM)TripleA Wrote:  IAEA Director said yesterday that Iran currently has enough uranium to make several bombs, and could do it in a matter of days.

American Intel confirmed.

OTOH, there is no indication of the final steps yet taking place.

That really should make Trump's decision easy, in my opinion. But that's because I don't believe Khamenei will make a deal. He is, again, the leader of the biggest state sponsor of Islamic terrorism. He kinda has to try to save face with his terrorist proxies in the rest of the Middle East. Not to mention he's the leader of a death cult that's hell bent on issuing in the coming of the Third Imam.

(06-20-2025 07:33 AM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(06-20-2025 07:08 AM)TripleA Wrote:  IAEA Director said yesterday that Iran currently has enough uranium to make several bombs, and could do it in a matter of days.

American Intel confirmed.

OTOH, there is no indication of the final steps yet taking place.

That really should make Trump's decision easy, in my opinion. But that's because I don't believe Khamenei will make a deal. He is, again, the leader of the biggest state sponsor of Islamic terrorism. He kinda has to try to save face with his terrorist proxies in the rest of the Middle East. Not to mention he's the leader of a death cult that's hell bent on issuing in the coming of the Third Imam.

Ah, the third Imam. An eleven year old boy who hid in a well to avoid being killed by the Arab sect of the wonderful religion of Islam. The kid was never seen again ushering in an age of waiting for him to emerge from the ground no less to rule the world. Interesting isn’t it……

There is also the issue of bombing the pshit out of the Uranium stores and causing a dirty bomb scenario. If the bombs do get to the Uranium there is a very good chance it gets released. Keeping that from happening is above my pay grade.

(06-20-2025 07:43 AM)Was SoMs Eagle Wrote:  

(06-20-2025 07:33 AM)GeminiCoog Wrote:  

(06-20-2025 07:08 AM)TripleA Wrote:  IAEA Director said yesterday that Iran currently has enough uranium to make several bombs, and could do it in a matter of days.

American Intel confirmed.

OTOH, there is no indication of the final steps yet taking place.

That really should make Trump's decision easy, in my opinion. But that's because I don't believe Khamenei will make a deal. He is, again, the leader of the biggest state sponsor of Islamic terrorism. He kinda has to try to save face with his terrorist proxies in the rest of the Middle East. Not to mention he's the leader of a death cult that's hell bent on issuing in the coming of the Third Imam.

Ah, the third Imam. An eleven year old boy who hid in a well to avoid being killed by the Arab sect of the wonderful religion of Islam. The kid was never seen again ushering in an age of waiting for him to emerge from the ground no less to rule the world. Interesting isn’t it……

I guess? I mean it sounds like a video game I played as a kid, but without all the goat-raping religion stuff. lol

(06-20-2025 07:48 AM)Eagleaidaholic Wrote:  There is also the issue of bombing the pshit out of the Uranium stores and causing a dirty bomb scenario. If the bombs do get to the Uranium there is a very good chance it gets released. Keeping that from happening is above my pay grade.

Yes, that was mentioned in some of the reporting yesterday. They also said Trump was aware of the possibility.