(09-22-2022 05:28 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 04:56 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 04:38 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 03:17 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  

(09-22-2022 01:41 PM)shere khan Wrote:  name one frickin putin lover. thats a weak argument when you dont have anything.

nobody loves putin. im not so sure a bunch here wouldnt give zelinsky some sugar.

Your posts on this subject have been pretty consistent: Criticism of Ukraine and its supporters, skepticism of positive Ukrainian news, and "no good guys here". Not sure I've seen any other criticism of Putin or Russia from you. Maybe the russian bot can chime in and make your case.

I don't really have a dog in this hunt (whether or not we should support Ukraine) but I do find Putin to be a pain in the ass and I'm encouraged that he has exposed Russia's shortcomings in this "action", likely hamstringing his ability to do more conventional-warfare damage going forward.

Russia has an existential demographic problem: They're getting very old very quickly and have a low birth rate. Relatively soon they will have more consumers than producers. It's going to crush them economically and destroy their military, among other things. That's a much better explanation for Russia's aggression than "de-nazification" or "NATO provocation". But it also gives an indication that: 1) he's not going to nuke or otherwise level Ukraine because he needs it, and 2) he's not going to be finished when he's done in Ukraine. With its current demographic trajectory Russia will need to expand beyond Ukraine to be confident of security. Hence the talk about Poland, Moldova, etc.

Putin is not a dummy. He should have been well aware that 1) Russia already lost due to demographics alone, 2) Corruption is rampant and that the military itself was in suboptimal shape given the questionable munitions and equipment along with the poor training of volunteers in peace time and 3) That a lack of an effective NCO cadre within the Russian military put them at a tactical disadvantage against NATO (U.S. in particular) and 4) The poor state of the manufacturing and technology sectors that have made them highly reliant on western made chips and other tech for their best weapons.

I can understand how he could have thrown caution to the wind and went after Ukraine thinking he'd take them out before NATO could have done much of anything to thwart him. Especially with the demographic collapse alone his army has a shelf life before it starts to unravel. But by the time he saw quite early in the war that Ukrainian resistance plus limited NATO arms transfers seriously hurt the invasion force...he should have stopped, secured the breakaway areas and declared their special mission over and then annexed the areas and called it a day. With what little he saw of the war very early on, he KNEW that it was a pipedream to take over Ukraine completely, secured it and then press on into Poland.

I don't understand what is driving Putin to continue this war. He's repeatedly showing the weaknesses of the Russian military from personnel, how it's structured and the poor defense industry in his own country.

Ive thought about this was well and I keep coming back to only two possible answers.

Possibility One--There is something physically wrong with Putin and he is simply not the same Putin we have been dealing with prior to this war. Maybe the isolation due to Covid affected him mentally---but the old Putin would have exacted most of what he wanted by leveraging the tremendous negotiating advantage he had created for himself in January. Remember, at that time he had checkmated the west as his troops had surrounded Ukraine and it was assumed that NATO and Ukraine could do little to stop him. He could have probably negotiated about 90% of what he wanted without even firing a shot at that point. The old Putin would have robbed the west at the negotiating table and kept his forces 100% intact.

Possibility Two---Putin has become so isolated and has punished so many underlings for bringing him bad news that he no longer is getting good information with which to make decisions. I think he was convinced that he would win in Ukraine in days (a mistake that is excusable because most people believed that), but the issue is he had no idea that his army wasnt ready to go. Clearly, nobody told him that you cant invade on the spur of the moment and give your army planners only 24 hours notice prior to the invasion. Invading armies need supplies and the Russian Army, that is already not particularly good at logistics, were never going to be logistically ready to invade anyone on short notice. Clearly---nobody told Putin this----and its possible nobody is still giving Putin the true situation on the ground in Ukraine. Regardless---at this point, he may feel politically he has no choice but to continue--regardless of how bad it is. If he can hang to the Donbas and Crimea through the winter----he could potentially swing a negotiated settlement creating some sort of autonomous regions in the Donbas and Crimea---and then declare a "mission accomplished" victory. The problem there is for Ukraine to sign onto any negotiated peace---there will need to be a rock solid article 5 like security guarantee from the a coalition of western nuclear nations---likely a group that includes the US, France, and the UK (likely Poland and Germany as well).

I'd add a third possibility - It didn't matter if his army was unprepared. If he believes Russia's demography is truly an existential crisis, he might believe this is his last opportunity to keep the country (as he knows it, anyway) from collapsing.

That third possibility is my opinion of the overarching reason war would have started eventually by Russia. Their backs are against the wall in numerous areas before the war started if your looking at 100+ year outlook of a people and land.