I am obviously guessing, just like everyone else. However, based on what I’ve seen and read and heard, I think the American is going to add four teams to get to 12. It seems like they are shooting for more than just two teams. I don’t know if I necessarily agree with that approach, but that does appear to be their plan.

Honestly, my guess is the reason why they are going to 12 schools instead of 10, which I would recommend, is because they expect to incur more losses and they want to be buffered against that possibility.

With that in mind, again, if I were advising them, I think I would choose programs based on institutional qualities like enrollment because those are factors that never change. Choosing a school based on its current success in football or any other sport is really a dumb approach because that can change at a moments notice. However, if the institution itself is strong and stable then it can always create strong and stable athletic departments.

I would also prefer schools with large on campus housing. Again, I think that’s really important because that creates culture and the AAC is gambling on some futures here and trying to cultivate winning cultures among its members.

So, based on that rationale, if I were the AAC, I think the four programs I would lean towards choosing
would be UAB, Georgia State, Charlotte and UTSA.

On-campus housing is an issue a Georgia State but their enrollment is robust. That feels like a stock that would be worth buying. UTSA profiles similarly but San Antonio is an underserved market compared to Atlanta. Charlotte seems like the most underrated of the group and UAB is a complete no-brainer.

I would also be open to discussing Old Dominion, James Madison, Liberty and Florida Atlantic. I think all of the schools are worth consideration, IMHO. I don’t think I would consider Appalachian State or Marshall. They are both fine programs but they feel maxed out to me. It doesn’t feel like there’s any growth potential there at all.

I don’t believe I would consider Rice at all. I honestly don’t understand their appeal? Maybe someone can better explain it to me but basically, what they have going for them is they were in the Southwest Conference and they have a huge endowment. However, none of that endowment is going towards athletics. Their facilities are terrible, they have an enrollment of 3500 students, and they have no fan base. Respectfully, I just don’t see their appeal at all as an athletic addition. Now, if you were forming some sort of academic coalition, that’s a different deal. They would be one of my first phone calls. However, adding Rice to retain the Houston market would be like adding Columbia to get into the New York City market. It just doesn’t make any sense.