(06-12-2021 12:00 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-12-2021 08:30 AM)usffan Wrote:  

(06-12-2021 03:28 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(06-12-2021 02:41 AM)Wedge Wrote:  But, each team is pulling for itself, not for a conference. Boise wants Boise to be in the playoff. Boise is, at best, neutral on whether any other team makes the playoff. The pitch to them can't be, "Join us and help Cincinnati or Houston make the playoff." What would be persuasive is if someone could demonstrate to Boise that Boise's own playoff chances are 5x or 10x better in the AAC.

Wedge,

You are talking to AAC fans. I think it's pretty obvious to everyone that they can only see what is good for them, but are completely incapable of seeing the point of view of anyone else. It's a bubble.

I think it's a wash for Boise State. They probably have a better chance of running the table in the MWC and getting a high rank than if they had to slog through the four best AAC schools. They are going to be the top team in the MWC every other year and in contention for the playoff spot; but likely only once every 4 or 5 years be the top team in the AAC and in contention. Even if the AAC is 5x as likely as the MWC to get that top spot, the statistical odds are pretty much the same for Boise State. [1]

And we really don't know if the playoff committee is going to give extra weight to the AAC top school, or if they are going to elevate the G5 school with fewer losses regardless of conference. Right now the AP plays an outsized role in ranking because the committee doesn't much care past about the 6th ranked spot. (They dropped #15 Texas in a NY6 Bowl for heavens sake). But that changes with 12 schools in the playoff. Nobody knows what that means at the G5 level. Will it continue as it shakes out now, or will it be more of an open free for all?

The odds are not really much different. Look at Wichita State. I think the odds of them making the tourney are pretty similar had they staid in the MVC as in joining the AAC. That is instructive.

If you're talking about what Boise fans care about, I think you're right. If you're talking about what the Boise administration wants, though, I'd push back on that. The fact that the AAC has managed to get the financial windfall of getting the NY6 share in 5 of the last 7 years has put millions of dollars into each football playing member's coffers (and presumably played a part in also securing a higher media rights payout than the MWC). So while I, as a USF fan, don't particularly relish seeing Central Florida go to 2 NY6 bowls, I know that USF has benefitted from having them there, just like we did by having Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston go as well. That helped us be able to afford to buy out Charlie Strong.

So would Boise have an easier path to the new CFP as a member of the AAC? Of course not. Would they potentially make more money as a member of the AAC, though? I think so (I don't know enough of the details of their unbalanced deal with the MWC to know for sure). The question is whether that additional money makes it worth their while. Those decisions, for better or worse, aren't made by the fans at all, but rather by the administration. As Frank often says, think like a president.

USFFan

The money that you're hoping the AAC gets would be divided 12 ways (if Boise or another team joins the AAC), and a 1/12 share of that money is not a whole lot when weighed against the costs of changing conferences and playing in a conference where every opponent is 1,000 to 2,500 miles away. Look up the money a conference makes when teams in the league do really well in March Madness. Now divide that amount by 12 (or 14 or whatever), and each school's share is just a nice little bonus, it's not life-changing money.

What would bring in more money to any one school is their own team making the playoff.* That leads to a helluva lot more ticket revenue and donations. That money would far exceed the share a team would get if a conference-mate makes the playoff, and that's what a president or AD is aiming for if they have a strong football team. Making the playoff even once or twice would also be a giant boost to football recruiting which helps to extend the run of good football seasons going forward.

That's thinking like a president or athletic director. Wanting to acquire new members to boost the image of a conference is thinking like a conference commissioner who just wants to claim victory when one of "his" teams makes the playoff and doesn't care which team it is.

* Obviously if a team has no hope of ever making the playoff wherever they are, then the pros and cons are different, but this discussion is not about recruiting new members who have no hope of ever making the playoff.

Not sure if you considered all the elements to that. Mississippi and Northwestern have made a combined zero playoff appearances and have played for exactly zero national championships in the CFP era.

If they don't think they've benefitted from Alabama and Ohio State making the playoffs and winning championships, then there are a few of us that would be ok switching places with them. Those media dollars don't come from Mississippi eyeballs.