(06-11-2021 01:01 PM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 12:19 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:22 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 06:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  BYU has the choice:

winning a conference title game which most likely involves going undefeated to be a top six champ, playing the extra 13th game, not putting together the entirety of their schedule, and competing for one spot.

OR

going undefeated, putting together the entirety of their schedule, and completing for six spots.

BYU has a choice, but it's not between winning a conference championship vs. going undefeated as an FBS independent.

Actually, BYU has this choice:

Join a conference, knowing that this would give them two different ways of making the CFP (by going undefeated, or by going 12-1 and winning their conference championship).

OR

Remaining as a FBS independent, knowing that their only pathway to the CFP is to go undefeated (only one BYU team has gone undefeated since 1922).

.

As a FBS independent, losing a mid-season game would make it nearly impossible to compete for a national championship.

However, as a conference member, it would be possible to advance to the CFP, even if they lose a mid-season game.

Considering the fact that BYU has had many more 1-loss teams than undefeated teams, joining a conference would double or triple their chances of making their way to into the college football playoffs.

There is no guarantee 12-1 would be top six champ. We saw this past season. Had Cincy lost then Coastal would have been in! So imagine a situation where the P5 gets all five in and a couple G5’s run the table. There is NO guarantee because it’s up to the committee. I feel the committee will still reward BYU playing P5s like they do now.

It's true that a team could go 12-1 without getting a CFP auto-bid, because it would also need to be one of the six highest-ranked conference champs.

In fact, there were 3 G5 conference champs (ranked #17, #18, and #20) that all went 12-1. Only one of them would have gotten into the CFP, because all of the P5 conference champs were ranked #6 or higher.

This sentence should have been written differently:

"Join a conference, knowing that this would give them two different possible ways of making the CFP (by going undefeated, or by going 12-1 and winning their conference championship).

However, note that the above also included this sentence meant to clarify that it would be possible, but not certain: "...it would be possible to advance to the CFP, even if they lose a mid-season game."

.

However, I still think that BYU would have a much better chance to make the playoffs by joining a conference.

Why? Because:

1) A 12-1 G5 conference champion would have made the CFP in 2014, 15, 16, 17, and 18. Only in 2013 and 2019 would a one-loss G5 conference champion have missed the playoff.

and

2) It would even be possible for a 2-loss G5 conference champ to make the CFP:

For example, (11-2) Boise St. was the top-ranked 2014 G5 conference champion.

.

I would like to see BYU get a chance to play for a conference championship.

However, they had a lot more success when they were members of the WAC and MWC.

It would be possible for them to ranked high enough to make the CFP as an independent - - but only if they beat those teams.

Unfortunately, the Cougars have only won about 40% of their games vs. P5 teams.


Their best season as an independent, when they played P5 teams was in 2011.

In 2011, BYU went 10-3. They went 2-2 vs. P5 teams.

Unfortunately, that wasn't good enough to get them into the top 25 that year.

Instead, they ended up at #32 in the Massey Composite rankings.

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2011-15.htm

.......................................................................................................................

Equally striking, the only time that BYU has finished in the final AP top 25 in the past decade was the one season when they didn't play any P5 teams.

That's one of the reasons why I think BYU would have a much better chance of making it into the playoffs if they join a conference.

If making the playoffs is their sole goal, then how is the American a better option than say, the Mountain West? Wouldn’t the MWC be an easier path?

I could definitely see the Rose Bowl opting out of the semi’s rotation. Maybe the Sugar and the Orange too. I don’t see the Cotton being content with being a permanent semi-final, and if given the choice, I’d make the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Cotton the permanent NYD bowls. The other two are much younger bowls.

(06-11-2021 01:29 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 01:01 PM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 12:19 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:22 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 06:43 AM)esayem Wrote:  BYU has the choice:

winning a conference title game which most likely involves going undefeated to be a top six champ, playing the extra 13th game, not putting together the entirety of their schedule, and competing for one spot.

OR

going undefeated, putting together the entirety of their schedule, and completing for six spots.

BYU has a choice, but it's not between winning a conference championship vs. going undefeated as an FBS independent.

Actually, BYU has this choice:

Join a conference, knowing that this would give them two different ways of making the CFP (by going undefeated, or by going 12-1 and winning their conference championship).

OR

Remaining as a FBS independent, knowing that their only pathway to the CFP is to go undefeated (only one BYU team has gone undefeated since 1922).

.

As a FBS independent, losing a mid-season game would make it nearly impossible to compete for a national championship.

However, as a conference member, it would be possible to advance to the CFP, even if they lose a mid-season game.

Considering the fact that BYU has had many more 1-loss teams than undefeated teams, joining a conference would double or triple their chances of making their way to into the college football playoffs.

There is no guarantee 12-1 would be top six champ. We saw this past season. Had Cincy lost then Coastal would have been in! So imagine a situation where the P5 gets all five in and a couple G5’s run the table. There is NO guarantee because it’s up to the committee. I feel the committee will still reward BYU playing P5s like they do now.

It's true that a team could go 12-1 without getting a CFP auto-bid, because it would also need to be one of the six highest-ranked conference champs.

In fact, there were 3 G5 conference champs (ranked #17, #18, and #20) that all went 12-1. Only one of them would have gotten into the CFP, because all of the P5 conference champs were ranked #6 or higher.

This sentence should have been written differently:

"Join a conference, knowing that this would give them two different possible ways of making the CFP (by going undefeated, or by going 12-1 and winning their conference championship).

However, note that the above also included this sentence meant to clarify that it would be possible, but not certain: "...it would be possible to advance to the CFP, even if they lose a mid-season game."

.

However, I still think that BYU would have a much better chance to make the playoffs by joining a conference.

Why? Because:

1) A 12-1 G5 conference champion would have made the CFP in 2014, 15, 16, 17, and 18. Only in 2013 and 2019 would a one-loss G5 conference champion have missed the playoff.

and

2) It would even be possible for a 2-loss G5 conference champ to make the CFP:

For example, (11-2) Boise St. was the top-ranked 2014 G5 conference champion.

.

I would like to see BYU get a chance to play for a conference championship.

However, they had a lot more success when they were members of the WAC and MWC.

It would be possible for them to ranked high enough to make the CFP as an independent - - but only if they beat those teams.

Unfortunately, the Cougars have only won about 40% of their games vs. P5 teams.


Their best season as an independent, when they played P5 teams was in 2011.

In 2011, BYU went 10-3. They went 2-2 vs. P5 teams.

Unfortunately, that wasn't good enough to get them into the top 25 that year.

Instead, they ended up at #32 in the Massey Composite rankings.

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2011-15.htm

.......................................................................................................................

Equally striking, the only time that BYU has finished in the final AP top 25 in the past decade was the one season when they didn't play any P5 teams.

That's one of the reasons why I think BYU would have a much better chance of making it into the playoffs if they join a conference.

If making the playoffs is their sole goal, then how is the American a better option than say, the Mountain West? Wouldn’t the MWC be an easier path?

I keep getting told no. I get why a lot of AAC fans want the MWC teams but western schools joining a 14 school Eastern conference and winning it will be impossible. Winning a 12 team western conference is much much more likely I would think.

(06-11-2021 03:20 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 01:29 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 01:01 PM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 12:19 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:22 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  BYU has a choice, but it's not between winning a conference championship vs. going undefeated as an FBS independent.

Actually, BYU has this choice:

Join a conference, knowing that this would give them two different ways of making the CFP (by going undefeated, or by going 12-1 and winning their conference championship).

OR

Remaining as a FBS independent, knowing that their only pathway to the CFP is to go undefeated (only one BYU team has gone undefeated since 1922).

.

As a FBS independent, losing a mid-season game would make it nearly impossible to compete for a national championship.

However, as a conference member, it would be possible to advance to the CFP, even if they lose a mid-season game.

Considering the fact that BYU has had many more 1-loss teams than undefeated teams, joining a conference would double or triple their chances of making their way to into the college football playoffs.

There is no guarantee 12-1 would be top six champ. We saw this past season. Had Cincy lost then Coastal would have been in! So imagine a situation where the P5 gets all five in and a couple G5’s run the table. There is NO guarantee because it’s up to the committee. I feel the committee will still reward BYU playing P5s like they do now.

It's true that a team could go 12-1 without getting a CFP auto-bid, because it would also need to be one of the six highest-ranked conference champs.

In fact, there were 3 G5 conference champs (ranked #17, #18, and #20) that all went 12-1. Only one of them would have gotten into the CFP, because all of the P5 conference champs were ranked #6 or higher.

This sentence should have been written differently:

"Join a conference, knowing that this would give them two different possible ways of making the CFP (by going undefeated, or by going 12-1 and winning their conference championship).

However, note that the above also included this sentence meant to clarify that it would be possible, but not certain: "...it would be possible to advance to the CFP, even if they lose a mid-season game."

.

However, I still think that BYU would have a much better chance to make the playoffs by joining a conference.

Why? Because:

1) A 12-1 G5 conference champion would have made the CFP in 2014, 15, 16, 17, and 18. Only in 2013 and 2019 would a one-loss G5 conference champion have missed the playoff.

and

2) It would even be possible for a 2-loss G5 conference champ to make the CFP:

For example, (11-2) Boise St. was the top-ranked 2014 G5 conference champion.

.

I would like to see BYU get a chance to play for a conference championship.

However, they had a lot more success when they were members of the WAC and MWC.

It would be possible for them to ranked high enough to make the CFP as an independent - - but only if they beat those teams.

Unfortunately, the Cougars have only won about 40% of their games vs. P5 teams.


Their best season as an independent, when they played P5 teams was in 2011.

In 2011, BYU went 10-3. They went 2-2 vs. P5 teams.

Unfortunately, that wasn't good enough to get them into the top 25 that year.

Instead, they ended up at #32 in the Massey Composite rankings.

https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/compare2011-15.htm

.......................................................................................................................

Equally striking, the only time that BYU has finished in the final AP top 25 in the past decade was the one season when they didn't play any P5 teams.

That's one of the reasons why I think BYU would have a much better chance of making it into the playoffs if they join a conference.

If making the playoffs is their sole goal, then how is the American a better option than say, the Mountain West? Wouldn’t the MWC be an easier path?

I keep getting told no. I get why a lot of AAC fans want the MWC teams but western schools joining a 14 school Eastern conference and winning it will be impossible. Winning a 12 team western conference is much much more likely I would think.

The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.

(06-11-2021 10:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.

Exactly. A 1/7th strike rate so far is nowhere near enough to make BYU abandon their position of not wanting to join a football conference that is seen as inferior to the one Utah is a member of.

One scenario where BYU joins a conference is one where the Big12 loses some schools but not enough to drop out of the P5, and the Big12 invites them. Another scenario is if the PAC-12 continues its decline, down into the status of a "tweener" conference, and the AAC grows from a "tweener" in marketing to one in fact, and they are seen as equivalent, and BYU would then consider an invite from the AAC.

But under status quo conditions, there is nothing in the 12-school 6-6 proposal to push them out of independence.

(06-11-2021 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 10:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.

Exactly. A 1/7th strike rate so far is nowhere near enough to make BYU abandon their position of not wanting to join a football conference that is seen as inferior to the one Utah is a member of.

One scenario where BYU joins a conference is one where the Big12 loses some schools but not enough to drop out of the P5, and the Big12 invites them. Another scenario is if the PAC-12 continues its decline, down into the status of a "tweener" conference, and the AAC grows from a "tweener" in marketing to one in fact, and they are seen as equivalent, and BYU would then consider an invite from the AAC.

But under status quo conditions, there is nothing in the 12-school 6-6 proposal to push them out of independence.

One point I would make, IF---BYU joined the AAC---the American's hold on that #6 conference champ goes from a solid grip to a hammerlock. If BYU, Boise, and SDSU ALL join the AAC---they become a league that could make a real run at putting a second team in the playoff every once in a while.

(06-11-2021 11:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 10:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.

Exactly. A 1/7th strike rate so far is nowhere near enough to make BYU abandon their position of not wanting to join a football conference that is seen as inferior to the one Utah is a member of.

One scenario where BYU joins a conference is one where the Big12 loses some schools but not enough to drop out of the P5, and the Big12 invites them. Another scenario is if the PAC-12 continues its decline, down into the status of a "tweener" conference, and the AAC grows from a "tweener" in marketing to one in fact, and they are seen as equivalent, and BYU would then consider an invite from the AAC.

But under status quo conditions, there is nothing in the 12-school 6-6 proposal to push them out of independence.

One point I would make, IF---BYU joined the AAC---the American's hold on that #6 conference champ goes from a solid grip to a hammerlock. If BYU, Boise, and SDSU ALL join the AAC---they become a league that could make a real run at putting a second team in the playoff every once in a while.

That is absolutely correct. BYU could go it alone, but they could team up with those two universities and the AAC to turn the AAC into a hot rod of a conference.

.

Of course, they're coming off their best season in a decade, and there's no doubt that they'll be poised to throttle up and to give independence their best shot ever. Should be a fascinating season, with 7 P5 teams scheduled:

9/4 vs. Arizona

9/11 vs. Utah

9/18 vs. Arizona State

9/25 vs. USF

10/1 @ Utah State

10/9 vs. Boise State

10/16 @ Baylor

10/23 @ Washington State

10/30 vs. Virginia

11/6 vs. Idaho State

11/20 @ GA Southern

11/27 @ USC

https://www.google.com/search?q=BYU+sche...;mt;fp;1;;

.

They might be able to go 9-2 in 2021, after coming off an 11-1 season, but the last time they played 7 P5 teams, they went 2-5. Overall, they've had a lot more success when they were playing in the WAC and MWC than they've had as an FBS independent.

The only year that they ended up in the top 25 as an FBS independent was the year when they didn't play any P5 opponents:

..............................Overall...non-P5....vs P5..................................Massey
................................W-L.......W-L.......W-L........Final AP Rank......Composite

2020 (FBS Indy).........11-1.....11-1.......0-0...............#11..................#9

2019..(FBS Indy).........7-6.......5-4.......2-2............unranked..............#58
2018..(FBS Indy).........7-6.......5-3.......2-3............unranked..............#57
2017..(FBS Indy).........4-9.......4-5.......0-4............unranked.............#103
2016..(FBS Indy).........9-4.......6-1.......3-3............unranked..............#40
2015..(FBS Indy).........9-4.......8-0.......1-4............unranked..............#39
2014..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......5-5.......3-0............unranked..............#52
2013..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......6-0.......2-5............unranked..............#33
2012..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......6-2.......2-3............unranked..............#34
2011..(FBS Indy).......10-3.......8-0.......1-3............unranked..............#32

Total:......................75-42....59-15....16-27
.
2010..(MWC)..............7-6.......6-5.......1-1............unranked
2009..(MWC)............11-2.......9-1.......2-1...............#12
2008..(MWC)............10-3.......8-2.......2-1...............#25
2007..(MWC)............11-2.......9-1.......2-1...............#14
2006..(MWC)............11-2.....10-0.......1-2...............#16

Total:......................50-15.....42-9......7-6


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/sch...index.html

Even if they are able to continue along as a FBS independent and go 9-2 vs. mostly-P5 teams, it's not clear that it would get them into a 12-team CFP playoff, because the archives have shown that no non-P5 team with more than one loss would have gotten an at-large bid between 2013 and 2020.

It looks like their best chance for success, by far, is to join a conference, if not in 2022, then at least before the expanded CFP gets started.

(06-12-2021 01:22 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 10:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.

Exactly. A 1/7th strike rate so far is nowhere near enough to make BYU abandon their position of not wanting to join a football conference that is seen as inferior to the one Utah is a member of.

One scenario where BYU joins a conference is one where the Big12 loses some schools but not enough to drop out of the P5, and the Big12 invites them. Another scenario is if the PAC-12 continues its decline, down into the status of a "tweener" conference, and the AAC grows from a "tweener" in marketing to one in fact, and they are seen as equivalent, and BYU would then consider an invite from the AAC.

But under status quo conditions, there is nothing in the 12-school 6-6 proposal to push them out of independence.

One point I would make, IF---BYU joined the AAC---the American's hold on that #6 conference champ goes from a solid grip to a hammerlock. If BYU, Boise, and SDSU ALL join the AAC---they become a league that could make a real run at putting a second team in the playoff every once in a while.

That is absolutely correct. BYU could go it alone, but they could team up with those two universities and the AAC to turn the AAC into a hot rod of a conference.

.

Of course, they're coming off their best season in a decade, and there's no doubt that they'll be poised to throttle up and to give independence their best shot ever. Should be a fascinating season, with 7 P5 teams scheduled:

9/4 vs. Arizona

9/11 vs. Utah

9/18 vs. Arizona State

9/25 vs. USF

10/1 @ Utah State

10/9 vs. Boise State

10/16 @ Baylor

10/23 @ Washington State

10/30 vs. Virginia

11/6 vs. Idaho State

11/20 @ GA Southern

11/27 @ USC

https://www.google.com/search?q=BYU+sche...;mt;fp;1;;

.

They might be able to go 9-2 in 2021, after coming off an 11-1 season, but the last time they played 7 P5 teams, they went 2-5. Overall, they've had a lot more success when they were playing in the WAC and MWC than they've had as an FBS independent.

The only year that they ended up in the top 25 as an FBS independent was the year when they didn't play any P5 opponents:

..............................Overall...non-P5....vs P5..................................Massey
................................W-L.......W-L.......W-L........Final AP Rank......Composite

2020 (FBS Indy).........11-1.....11-1.......0-0...............#11..................#9

2019..(FBS Indy).........7-6.......5-4.......2-2............unranked..............#58
2018..(FBS Indy).........7-6.......5-3.......2-3............unranked..............#57
2017..(FBS Indy).........4-9.......4-5.......0-4............unranked.............#103
2016..(FBS Indy).........9-4.......6-1.......3-3............unranked..............#40
2015..(FBS Indy).........9-4.......8-0.......1-4............unranked..............#39
2014..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......5-5.......3-0............unranked..............#52
2013..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......6-0.......2-5............unranked..............#33
2012..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......6-2.......2-3............unranked..............#34
2011..(FBS Indy).......10-3.......8-0.......1-3............unranked..............#32

Total:......................75-42....59-15....16-27
.
2010..(MWC)..............7-6.......6-5.......1-1............unranked
2009..(MWC)............11-2.......9-1.......2-1...............#12
2008..(MWC)............10-3.......8-2.......2-1...............#25
2007..(MWC)............11-2.......9-1.......2-1...............#14
2006..(MWC)............11-2.....10-0.......1-2...............#16

Total:......................50-15.....42-9......7-6


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/sch...index.html

Even if they are able to continue along as a FBS independent and go 9-2 vs. mostly-P5 teams, it's not clear that it would get them into a 12-team CFP playoff, because no non-P5 team with one or more losses would have gotten an at-large bid between 2013 and 2020.

Their track record suggests that BYU's best chance for success may be to join a conference, if not in 2022 or 2023, then at least before the expanded CFP gets started.

(06-12-2021 01:22 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 10:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.

Exactly. A 1/7th strike rate so far is nowhere near enough to make BYU abandon their position of not wanting to join a football conference that is seen as inferior to the one Utah is a member of.

One scenario where BYU joins a conference is one where the Big12 loses some schools but not enough to drop out of the P5, and the Big12 invites them. Another scenario is if the PAC-12 continues its decline, down into the status of a "tweener" conference, and the AAC grows from a "tweener" in marketing to one in fact, and they are seen as equivalent, and BYU would then consider an invite from the AAC.

But under status quo conditions, there is nothing in the 12-school 6-6 proposal to push them out of independence.

One point I would make, IF---BYU joined the AAC---the American's hold on that #6 conference champ goes from a solid grip to a hammerlock. If BYU, Boise, and SDSU ALL join the AAC---they become a league that could make a real run at putting a second team in the playoff every once in a while.

Some have suggested that BYU doesn't care enough about the college football playoffs to give up their independence, although that may be apocryphal, but even if they don't, they've apparently made it clear that they do want to become part of a power conference.

They could try to continue along as an independent, but the results of their decade-long indy experiment have not been encouraging (with the exception of 2020, when they played no P5 opponents; see below). They had their greatest success when they were conference members, and it's probably true that BYU, SDSU, and Boise could turn the AAC into a hot rod of a new power conference. That may be their best bet.

.

Of course, they're coming off their best season in a decade, and there's no doubt that they'll be poised to throttle up and to give independence their best shot ever. Should be a fascinating season, with 7 P5 teams scheduled:

9/4 vs. Arizona

9/11 vs. Utah

9/18 vs. Arizona State

9/25 vs. USF

10/1 @ Utah State

10/9 vs. Boise State

10/16 @ Baylor

10/23 @ Washington State

10/30 vs. Virginia

11/6 vs. Idaho State

11/20 @ GA Southern

11/27 @ USC

https://www.google.com/search?q=BYU+sche...;mt;fp;1;;

.

They might be able to go 9-2 in 2021, after coming off an 11-1 season, but the last time they played 7 P5 teams, they went 2-5 against them. Overall, they've had a lot more success when they were playing in the WAC and MWC than they've had as an FBS independent.

The only year that they ended up in the top 25 as an FBS independent was the year when they didn't play any P5 opponents:

..............................Overall...non-P5....vs P5..................................Massey
................................W-L.......W-L.......W-L........Final AP Rank......Composite

2020 (FBS Indy).........11-1.....11-1.......0-0...............#11..................#9

2019..(FBS Indy).........7-6.......5-4.......2-2............unranked..............#58
2018..(FBS Indy).........7-6.......5-3.......2-3............unranked..............#57
2017..(FBS Indy).........4-9.......4-5.......0-4............unranked.............#103
2016..(FBS Indy).........9-4.......6-1.......3-3............unranked..............#40
2015..(FBS Indy).........9-4.......8-0.......1-4............unranked..............#39
2014..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......5-5.......3-0............unranked..............#52
2013..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......6-0.......2-5............unranked..............#33
2012..(FBS Indy).........8-5.......6-2.......2-3............unranked..............#34
2011..(FBS Indy).......10-3.......8-0.......1-3............unranked..............#32

Total:......................75-42....59-15....16-27
.
2010..(MWC)..............7-6.......6-5.......1-1............unranked
2009..(MWC)............11-2.......9-1.......2-1...............#12
2008..(MWC)............10-3.......8-2.......2-1...............#25
2007..(MWC)............11-2.......9-1.......2-1...............#14
2006..(MWC)............11-2.....10-0.......1-2...............#16

Total:......................50-15.....42-9......7-6


https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/sch...index.html

Even if they are able to continue along as a FBS independent and go 9-2 vs. mostly-P5 teams, it's not clear that it would get them into a 12-team CFP playoff, because no non-P5 team with even a single loss would have gotten an at-large bid between 2013 and 2020.

Their track record suggests that BYU's best chance for success may be to join a conference, if not in 2022 or 2023, then at least before the expanded CFP gets started.

(06-11-2021 11:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  One point I would make, IF---BYU joined the AAC---the American's hold on that #6 conference champ goes from a solid grip to a hammerlock. If BYU, Boise, and SDSU ALL join the AAC---they become a league that could make a real run at putting a second team in the playoff every once in a while.

But there's a chicken and an egg problem there ... the increase in status that they might be able to leverage from getting BYU to join has to already be there in full enough measure that the AAC to be seen as in the same tier as the PAC-12, or else BYU will not want to join.

(06-11-2021 11:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 10:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.

Exactly. A 1/7th strike rate so far is nowhere near enough to make BYU abandon their position of not wanting to join a football conference that is seen as inferior to the one Utah is a member of.

One scenario where BYU joins a conference is one where the Big12 loses some schools but not enough to drop out of the P5, and the Big12 invites them. Another scenario is if the PAC-12 continues its decline, down into the status of a "tweener" conference, and the AAC grows from a "tweener" in marketing to one in fact, and they are seen as equivalent, and BYU would then consider an invite from the AAC.

But under status quo conditions, there is nothing in the 12-school 6-6 proposal to push them out of independence.

One point I would make, IF---BYU joined the AAC---the American's hold on that #6 conference champ goes from a solid grip to a hammerlock. If BYU, Boise, and SDSU ALL join the AAC---they become a league that could make a real run at putting a second team in the playoff every once in a while.

But, each team is pulling for itself, not for a conference. Boise wants Boise to be in the playoff. Boise is, at best, neutral on whether any other team makes the playoff. The pitch to them can't be, "Join us and help Cincinnati or Houston make the playoff." What would be persuasive is if someone could demonstrate to Boise that Boise's own playoff chances are 5x or 10x better in the AAC.

(06-12-2021 02:26 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  One point I would make, IF---BYU joined the AAC---the American's hold on that #6 conference champ goes from a solid grip to a hammerlock. If BYU, Boise, and SDSU ALL join the AAC---they become a league that could make a real run at putting a second team in the playoff every once in a while.

But there's a chicken and an egg problem there ... the increase in status that they might be able to leverage from getting BYU to join has to already be there in such full enough measure that the AAC to be seen as in the same tier as the PAC-12, or else BYU will not want to join.

True. It might help to prepare some visual aids, like this:



...................Final AP Top 25 FB Teams:..................Final AP Top 25 FB Teams
.....................Current 11-team AAC:....................AAC with BYU, SDSU, & BSU:

2020......................Cincinnati....................................Cincinnati & BYU

2019.........Memphis, Navy, Cincy, & UCF........Memphis, Navy, Cincy, UCF, & Boise St.

2018................UCF & Cincinnati..........................UCF, Cincinnati, & Boise State

2017............UCF, USF, & Memphis..................UCF, USF, Memphis, & Boise State


......................# of Final Top 25 .....................# of Top 25 AAC Teams
.......................PAC-12 Teams:...................plus BYU, SDSU, and Boise St:

2020........................1.................................................2

2019........................2.................................................5

2018........................2.................................................3

2017........................3.................................................4



It's said that BYU would like to join the PAC-12, but they could join a stronger football conference than the PAC-12, and help build it into the nation's 6th power conference.

(06-12-2021 02:41 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:47 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 11:19 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-11-2021 10:31 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The problem is winning the MW has been the ticket to the access bowl a grand total of once.

Exactly. A 1/7th strike rate so far is nowhere near enough to make BYU abandon their position of not wanting to join a football conference that is seen as inferior to the one Utah is a member of.

One scenario where BYU joins a conference is one where the Big12 loses some schools but not enough to drop out of the P5, and the Big12 invites them. Another scenario is if the PAC-12 continues its decline, down into the status of a "tweener" conference, and the AAC grows from a "tweener" in marketing to one in fact, and they are seen as equivalent, and BYU would then consider an invite from the AAC.

But under status quo conditions, there is nothing in the 12-school 6-6 proposal to push them out of independence.

One point I would make, IF---BYU joined the AAC---the American's hold on that #6 conference champ goes from a solid grip to a hammerlock. If BYU, Boise, and SDSU ALL join the AAC---they become a league that could make a real run at putting a second team in the playoff every once in a while.

But, each team is pulling for itself, not for a conference. Boise wants Boise to be in the playoff. Boise is, at best, neutral on whether any other team makes the playoff. The pitch to them can't be, "Join us and help Cincinnati or Houston make the playoff." What would be persuasive is if someone could demonstrate to Boise that Boise's own playoff chances are 5x or 10x better in the AAC.

For Boise, the strongest argument for joining the AAC may or may not be the playoff.

It's possible that they're more interested in getting into a power conference, and they may see the American as their only vehicle for achieving that objective - - with their assistance.

Of course, it wouldn't hurt in that regard if the AAC sends a series of teams to the college football playoffs along the way.

(06-12-2021 02:41 AM)Wedge Wrote:  But, each team is pulling for itself, not for a conference. Boise wants Boise to be in the playoff. Boise is, at best, neutral on whether any other team makes the playoff. The pitch to them can't be, "Join us and help Cincinnati or Houston make the playoff." What would be persuasive is if someone could demonstrate to Boise that Boise's own playoff chances are 5x or 10x better in the AAC.

Wedge,

You are talking to AAC fans. I think it's pretty obvious to everyone that they can only see what is good for them, but are completely incapable of seeing the point of view of anyone else. It's a bubble.

I think it's a wash for Boise State. They probably have a better chance of running the table in the MWC and getting a high rank than if they had to slog through the four best AAC schools. They are going to be the top team in the MWC every other year and in contention for the playoff spot; but likely only once every 4 or 5 years be the top team in the AAC and in contention. Even if the AAC is 5x as likely as the MWC to get that top spot, the statistical odds are pretty much the same for Boise State. [1]

And we really don't know if the playoff committee is going to give extra weight to the AAC top school, or if they are going to elevate the G5 school with fewer losses regardless of conference. Right now the AP plays an outsized role in ranking because the committee doesn't much care past about the 6th ranked spot. (They dropped #15 Texas in a NY6 Bowl for heavens sake). But that changes with 12 schools in the playoff. Nobody knows what that means at the G5 level. Will it continue as it shakes out now, or will it be more of an open free for all?

The odds are not really much different. Look at Wichita State. I think the odds of them making the tourney are pretty similar had they staid in the MVC as in joining the AAC. That is instructive.

(06-12-2021 02:57 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  True. It might help to prepare some visual aids, like this: ...
It's said that BYU would like to join the PAC-12, but they could join a stronger football conference than the PAC-12, and help buld it into the nation's 6th power conference.

see, jed, the reason your visual aid doesn't work is you totally ignored the point you were responding to. The "P6“ status has to already be in the public consciousness before BYU will wish to join. So it cannot rest on BYU having already have been in the AAC for a number of years buiding up the status of the AAC.

Actually, BYU is already putting together a stronger schedule—minus the covid season—than they could ever have in the American. They’re already in a position where if they go 11-1 and their only loss is a strong P5 team, then they will be in contention for 1/6 at-large bids.

Wedge makes an excellent point about Boise State. Now Boise just needs to be ranked ahead of the American or even Pac 12 champ and they’re in. I still see programs like Utah State, Hawaii, Nevada, and Fresno State as being capable of a higher ranking than an American or Pac 12 champ.

The recency bias is strong here, but the volatility of so called G5 programs is too unpredictable for any long term forecasting.

(06-12-2021 05:36 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(06-12-2021 02:57 AM)JamesTKirk Wrote:  True. It might help to prepare some visual aids, like this: ...
It's said that BYU would like to join the PAC-12, but they could join a stronger football conference than the PAC-12, and help buld it into the nation's 6th power conference.

see, jed, the reason your visual aid doesn't work is you totally ignored the point you were responding to. The "P6“ status has to already be in the public consciousness before BYU will wish to join. So it cannot rest on BYU having already have been in the AAC for a number of years buiding up the status of the AAC.

Good point. By the time BYU would come around to joining the AAC, the AAC wouldn’t need them because they already established their status without them.

(06-12-2021 03:28 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  

(06-12-2021 02:41 AM)Wedge Wrote:  But, each team is pulling for itself, not for a conference. Boise wants Boise to be in the playoff. Boise is, at best, neutral on whether any other team makes the playoff. The pitch to them can't be, "Join us and help Cincinnati or Houston make the playoff." What would be persuasive is if someone could demonstrate to Boise that Boise's own playoff chances are 5x or 10x better in the AAC.

Wedge,

You are talking to AAC fans. I think it's pretty obvious to everyone that they can only see what is good for them, but are completely incapable of seeing the point of view of anyone else. It's a bubble.

I think it's a wash for Boise State. They probably have a better chance of running the table in the MWC and getting a high rank than if they had to slog through the four best AAC schools. They are going to be the top team in the MWC every other year and in contention for the playoff spot; but likely only once every 4 or 5 years be the top team in the AAC and in contention. Even if the AAC is 5x as likely as the MWC to get that top spot, the statistical odds are pretty much the same for Boise State. [1]

And we really don't know if the playoff committee is going to give extra weight to the AAC top school, or if they are going to elevate the G5 school with fewer losses regardless of conference. Right now the AP plays an outsized role in ranking because the committee doesn't much care past about the 6th ranked spot. (They dropped #15 Texas in a NY6 Bowl for heavens sake). But that changes with 12 schools in the playoff. Nobody knows what that means at the G5 level. Will it continue as it shakes out now, or will it be more of an open free for all?

The odds are not really much different. Look at Wichita State. I think the odds of them making the tourney are pretty similar had they staid in the MVC as in joining the AAC. That is instructive.

If you're talking about what Boise fans care about, I think you're right. If you're talking about what the Boise administration wants, though, I'd push back on that. The fact that the AAC has managed to get the financial windfall of getting the NY6 share in 5 of the last 7 years has put millions of dollars into each football playing member's coffers (and presumably played a part in also securing a higher media rights payout than the MWC). So while I, as a USF fan, don't particularly relish seeing Central Florida go to 2 NY6 bowls, I know that USF has benefitted from having them there, just like we did by having Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston go as well. That helped us be able to afford to buy out Charlie Strong.

So would Boise have an easier path to the new CFP as a member of the AAC? Of course not. Would they potentially make more money as a member of the AAC, though? I think so (I don't know enough of the details of their unbalanced deal with the MWC to know for sure). The question is whether that additional money makes it worth their while. Those decisions, for better or worse, aren't made by the fans at all, but rather by the administration. As Frank often says, think like a president.

USFFan

Well, Boise State has a president and they still aren’t in the American.

(06-12-2021 08:33 AM)esayem Wrote:  Well, Boise State has a president and they still aren’t in the American.

True. But the new CFP plans were only revealed a couple of days ago.

USFFan